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Poll addicts-Updated!!!

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Last Dr. Wang prediction:

Predicted median with undecideds: Kerry 281 EV, Bush 257 EV (probability map)

When asked after his interview on Fox yesterday what he thought would really happen, he said Kerry would get over 300 votes.


"Pollster John Zogby was on The Daily Show last night. He said what I have been telling you for many weeks: a break of undecideds towards Kerry is likely to be enough to get him over the top. I did not watch the program, but I think Zogby did not mention turnout. Too bad - I remain convinced that turnout will be the decisive variable in this race."

Turnout in Ohio is going to include 100,000 new voters, plus the turnout is predicted to be a record turnout. Furthermore, the Democrats have the better ground game this election in Florida and Ohio in particular. My team leader says that the Ohio people have been killing themselves and are very confident. But, I cannot wrap my head around Ohio voting Democratic. We'll see.


http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html


-Robert

 
Originally posted by: gUEv
omfg....chill chess9....go outside or something.
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He can post anything he wishes. If you don't want to read it.... follow your own sig advice somewhat and click the "back" button.
 
gUEv:

Hey, I've had sex five times today and ran 13 miles this morning. I'm not even close to empty. 🙂

But, coffee is your friend. 🙂

-Robert
 
Awesome! I wonder if that poll would be any more reliable than internet polling which I suspect is slightly weighted towards younger and more liberal minds?

Anyway, it's more good news!

I just finished 5 hours of work for the Kerry campaign. Here are some points I've learned today. I'm told that MoveOnPAC.org has contacted over 1.2 MILLION voters in the swing states, and particularly Florida. ACT is HUGE in Ohio and despite the recent polling numbers they think Kerry will take that state. (I'm skeptical that Ohio will go to Kerry, but it is close.) Also in Florida, I've noticed that the NAACP has put out yellow signs stating that voting is an act of self-defense-a novel thought. Regardless, the signs are all over Section 8 housing and poor black neighborhoods. In addition, someone has put out signs that say: "YOU MUST VOTE". 🙂 Now, those I love. I couldn't agree more because I think voting should be mandatory, but then, I'm from a much older generation. Anyway, in the Section 8 housing the number of people who have ALREADY VOTED is enormous. Nothing like 2000. We are looking at a gargantuan turnout in Florida, even if it rains as scheduled on Tuesday.

I was driving through some sections of Winter Park today and was astonished to see so many Kerry signs. They outnumbered the Bush signs about 2 to 1 in the areas we were in. Winter Park is lily white and somewhat upscale.

All in all, I remain firmly convinced that Kerry will take Florida by a substantial margin. Some folks are going to be very surprised at our ground game, which has proven to be very effective so far.

-Robert
 
Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Originally posted by: Gravity
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
It's the Mason-Dixon Line all over again.

If Bush wins I predict it will be the start of Civil War II because the U.S. has a good chance of not surviving another 4 years of this Regime.
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Seems extreme Dave. BTW, I'm packin heat!!
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Me too...
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Is that an M4A1? Give it to me. 😱
 
"Predicted median with undecideds: Kerry 283 EV, Bush 255 EV (probability map)"-Courtesy of Dr. Wang.

Keep your Wang handy, boys. 🙂

-Robert

 
Originally posted by: chess9
http://www.race2004.net/states.php?state=mi

Zogby gives Kerry a 6.5% win, outside the MOE!!!

I think I hear the fat lady practicing her trills in the antechamber. 🙂

-Robert
Click to expand...


That's not Zogby's number (as much as I would like). If you read the methodology of the site, it uses the state by state results and arrives at the numbers you see. This is not a national poll, but rather an electoral-state-by-state view from the authors.

It will be interesting to see the Zogby poll today though.
 
That's very misleading, but thank you. I checked his methodology. I thought he was simply listing Zogby's latest. Going to Zogby's site I see he still has his dead heat numbers.

Regardless, a dead heat for Bush in the end this close to the election is a disaster. No incumbent is going to overcome such numbers unless Bush pulls off a miracle.

At any rate, look at the Stanford Poll above. (actually, it's a meta analysis)

-Robert
 
"Predicted median with undecideds: Kerry 280 EV, Bush 258 EV (probability map)"

Dr. Wang's meta analysis shows the race very slightly tighter today, with a three point swing to Bush.

-Robert

 
"Changes this week: If the polls on Tuesday go the way the median polls are trending right now, John Kerry has a more comfortable lead than he did last week; on the other hand, so many states are in the middle columns that the average win for Kerry has shrunk. Don't you love math?

Given the turnout numbers being thrown around, I actually think Kerry has a better chance than the odds are giving him right now, and right now he is the favorite. I'm going to go out on a limb and say he will win at least two out of three of Ohio, Hawaii and Arkansas, and he could sweep them. If he does sweep those, then it won't even matter if he loses Florida. Of the states in the Leaning DEM column, I think Pennsylvania is a pretty good bet for Kerry, but the others have been jumping around a lot."


http://binomial.csuhayward.edu/WeeklyStatus.html

-Robert
 
It seems like things are trending towards Kerry lately. It was Bush up by a little and now it's even. Makes Zogby's claim that the undecideds will start breaking for Kerry look true.
 
Yes, but the pollsters are playing their cards close to their vest. They do not want to overstate the effect.

Yesterday here in Florida we had HUGE HUGE HUGE lines of voters waiting up to 7 hours to vote. People are heavily committed to the mission of ousting Bush, or supporting Bush in one or two cases. 🙂 The large turnout is very bad news for Bush.

Florida looks like Kerry country from where I sit, but anything can happen.

Who is that fat lady doing the trills in the wings?
🙂 🙂 🙂

-Robert
 
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