Poll addicts-Updated!!!

[chess9]

I have to admit that until the last two weeks I was pretty sure Bush would win. Now that I've seen what the Kerry organization is doing and has done, I'm a believer. MoveOn.Org has also been HUGE in this state (Fl). Soros is going to be the hero of this election, IMHO.

Bush will lose Florida by 3-5% at least. No way it is tied.

-Robert

 

[chess9]

Here's a predictive site out of Princeton that also has Kerry winning if undecided voters are included.

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

-Robert

 

[chess9]

Yet another site giving a strong chance to Kerry to win
About a 74% chance Kerry will win compared to about a 25% chance Bush will win.

http://binomial.csuhayward.edu/WeeklyStatus.html

 

[chess9]

Among early voters, Kerry is up 17% in Florida!!!! Of course, a lot of blacks have voted early and these are primarily returns from urban areas. The rural areas are almost all Bush country. 39%/56%.

On the other hand, we have about twice as many voters in urban areas than in rural areas in Florida. Only about 13-14% of the population is black, and about 25% (as I recall, but this may be wrong) are Hispanic. Among white voters we suspect the break is about 60% Bush, 40% Kerry.

-Robert

 

[slyedog]

i think chess9 needs to pull his nose out of kerry,s a$s. his brain is starving for fresh air and he has
started puking out all kinds of non-sense.

 

[chess9]

slyedog:

Feel free to post facts rather than slime.

-Robert

 

[mastertech01]

So, they are allowed to release the results of the early voting? Or is that exit polling?

 

[Gusty987]

slyedog, lets see your links proving that chess9's are "non-sense"

 

[Gusty987]

Originally posted by: mastertech01
So, they are allowed to release the results of the early voting? Or is that exit polling?

It's polling.

 

[chess9]

Yes, exit polling.

The Orlando Sentinel, as I reported earlier, also stated yesterday that voting by blacks constituted a large portion of the early voters. This is the direct result of the Kerry and MoveOnPac.org voter drive here. We've been hounding people to get to the polls early.

Anyway, the large percentage disparity is due to the large number of early black voters. Don't worry folks, those percentages will drop unfortunately. But they are a great start.

-Robert

 

[chess9]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x12942.xml?ReleaseID=488

Quinnipiac exit polling.

-Robert

 

[chess9]

Also, some slight corrections.

1. The black population of Florida is now abut 15%
2. The Hispanic population is about 17%
3. The lily white population (some people report mixed race) is about 62% now.
4. The balance is Asians, Indians, Hawiians, and Darth Vader wannabes.

Note that the white population as a percentage is falling, while the Hispanic population is rising slowly. DUH! The black population is fairly stable. No numbers for Jews, but I'd guess about 50,000, max.

The voting population is about 7 million.

-Robert

 

[Gusty987]

Robert, from your experience, which party is doing the better job of getting out the vote in FL?

 

[chess9]

Both are doing a great job. From our figures, last revised on Saturday, we had turned out in excess of 100,000 new Democratic voters. We are estimating new Republican voters at 70,000. However, the Republicans are slightly more likely to vote, which brings the numbers a bit closer together. I believe these numbers are from known new registrants which are being tracked by moveonpac.org. (but don't quote me on that because I didn't ask where my team leader got the numbers)

-Robert

 

[chess9]

However, I have not received one phone call from a Republican vote seeker, nor have I received a visit from a Republican. I'm registered as an Independent and my wife is a registered Republican, unless she changed her registration and didn't tell me. Anyway, last election I had about 3 or 4 phone calls from the Republicans and 2 visits from Republicans. I don't know, maybe they just aren't targeting my neighborhood because the area surrounding us is primarly black. The blacks I spoke with had received exactly zero solicitations from Republicans. All of which leads me to believe that the Republicans are focussing on getting out their base a bit more than we are. We are trying hard to get people to vote who have never before voted. I met a 40 year old woman who had never voted. I discovered my training partner has never voted and he is 43!!!! Good grief, I've been looking at his ugly face for 4 years. He wants to write in McCain, but I don't know if these new machines let you do that.

-Robert

 

[judasmachine]

god i hope that map is right..............

 

[chess9]

Amen, brother!

-Robert

 

[judasmachine]

Originally posted by: chess9
Amen, brother!

-Robert

Yeah I'm so tired of this. I'd rather sign on late on November 2nd to see a bunch of conservatives bitching and moaning that something went wrong, than be the one bitching and moaning. So very tired of this, yet I can't stay away.

-The Other Robert

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: judasmachine

Originally posted by: chess9
Amen, brother!

-Robert

Yeah I'm so tired of this. I'd rather sign on late on November 2nd to see a bunch of conservatives bitching and moaning that something went wrong, than be the one bitching and moaning. So very tired of this, yet I can't stay away.

-The Other Robert

Amen, Brother!

The third Robert!

 

[wirelessenabled]

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose

Originally posted by: phynet

Theres a saying:
If your not a liberal when your young you have no heart.
If your not a republican when your older you have no brain.

My preferred saying:

"Know how to make a liberal into a conservative?"

Make them earn & save $100K.....

Like Warren Buffet?

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: wirelessenabled

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose

Originally posted by: phynet

Theres a saying:
If your not a liberal when your young you have no heart.
If your not a republican when your older you have no brain.

My preferred saying:

"Know how to make a liberal into a conservative?"

Make them earn & save $100K.....

Like Warren Buffet?

Oh, and do 401k plans count in that $100k number?

 

[chess9]

No! What the heck are YOU thinking?
First of all, who has $100K left in their 401(k)? j/k
Secondly, that is nothing, de natha, chump change. Janitors have $100K, don't they? Really, by the time you retire, if you are now 40 years of age, you'd better have at least a million dollar retirement plan if you want to be able to afford to pay your electric bill and live in this country. I'm not kidding...

-Robert

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: chess9
No! What the heck are YOU thinking?
First of all, who has $100K left in their 401(k)? j/k
Secondly, that is nothing, de natha, chump change. Janitors have $100K, don't they? Really, by the time you retire, if you are now 40 years of age, you'd better have at least a million dollar retirement plan if you want to be able to afford to pay your electric bill and live in this country. I'm not kidding...

-Robert

Oh, I know. I think I'll need two million....should be able to retire in about 30 years (age of 65)!

 

[chess9]

I agree. Plan on the financial situation being absolutely dreadful. If not, you are golden. If it is bad, you are stuck with plastic but you will eat.

-Robert

 

[chess9]

WooT WooT!

Dr. Wang comes through again.

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

Kerry WINS!

Movin' on up....yeah....

-Robert