Official Trump second term prediction thread

[Brainonska511]

In which Krugman theorizes that the rise in long term interest rates while the Fed has been cutting could mostly be a Trump premium on risk. Also that even if Trump makes the Fed cut rates more the bond market will probably react in the opposite direction.

https://bsky.app/profile/pkrugman.bsky.social/post/3lfacecxzxs2u

Pricing in the coming debt ceiling hijinx?

 

[Pens1566]

I really think that no matter what prediction is made (by anyone), it's going to be several orders of magnitude worse than anyone really expected. We're already seeing completely batshit things like annexing Greenland/Canada and similar before he even takes office. Meanwhile, you've got the worlds leading Ketamine consumer talking shit to foreign leaders on his personal ego-maintenance web site.

 

[K1052]

Pricing in the coming debt ceiling hijinx?

I think the utter unpredictability of what's going to happen after the 20th in so many areas. Will there be 50% tariffs on Canada? Is Trump going to deport 10M+ people and crash the broader economy? Are we going to war with Mexico in the Gulf of America? Are business leaders who don't fall in line going to be arrested on bullshit charges? Will the business people who have donated and are close to Trump secure massive competition harming advantages that their competitors lack because they bribed him first or best? Etc.

 

[Brainonska511]

I think the utter unpredictability of what's going to happen after the 20th in so many areas. Will there be 50% tariffs on Canada? Is Trump going to deport 10M+ people and crash the broader economy? Are we going to war with Mexico in the Gulf of America? Are business leaders who don't fall in line going to be arrested on bullshit charges? Will the business people who have donated and are close to Trump secure massive competition harming advantages that their competitors lack because they bribed him first or best? Etc.

If only there had been some way to predict and communicate this potential insanity before the election. /s

 

[K1052]

If only there had been some way to predict and communicate this potential insanity before the election. /s

Voters decided Trump will do the things that they like and not the things they don't like despite him constantly saying he's gonna do both. When enough of the electorate has decided to live in fantasy land they are beyond reach of persuasion. The bond traders however live in a different place as seems to be increasingly apparent.

 

[fskimospy]

I think the utter unpredictability of what's going to happen after the 20th in so many areas. Will there be 50% tariffs on Canada? Is Trump going to deport 10M+ people and crash the broader economy? Are we going to war with Mexico in the Gulf of America? Are business leaders who don't fall in line going to be arrested on bullshit charges? Will the business people who have donated and are close to Trump secure massive competition harming advantages that their competitors lack because they bribed him first or best? Etc.

An interesting take on this is that Trump is simply cementing China's global hegemony because Lawful Evil beats Chaotic Evil. They don't like China but with China they at least broadly know what to expect. With the US now it's just chaos in every direction.

 

[K1052]

An interesting take on this is that Trump is simply cementing China's global hegemony because Lawful Evil beats Chaotic Evil. They don't like China but with China they at least broadly know what to expect. With the US now it's just chaos in every direction.

The biggest beneficiary of Trump's return is likely to be Xi who can go to essentially every country in the world and say "Hey you might not agree with us on everything but we are not fucking insane." and have it be a compelling sales pitch.

 

[Brainonska511]

Voters decided Trump will do the things that they like and not the things they don't like despite him constantly saying he's gonna do both. When enough of the electorate has decided to live in fantasy land they are beyond reach of persuasion. The bond traders however live in a different place as seems to be increasingly apparent.

Yes, that is part of it. But the communication environment all these voters live in is corrupted and really buried the lede. More traditional media outlets aren't as powerful as they once were, but the media can still make things a scandal when it wants to.

Inflation was pretty much back down to normal by end of 2023, yet 2024 was filled with vibes-based stories on the economy, creating a gross feedback loop that just amplified negativity.

 

[Pens1566]

The biggest beneficiary of Trump's return is likely to be Xi who can go to essentially every country in the world and say "Hey you might not agree with us on everything but we are not fucking insane." and have it be a compelling sales pitch.

And, conveniently enough, it's the one country that Phony Stark seems to not have anything bad to say about it.

 

[Brainonska511]

The biggest beneficiary of Trump's return is likely to be Xi who can go to essentially every country in the world and say "Hey you might not agree with us on everything but we are not fucking insane." and have it be a compelling sales pitch.

Yep, if Xi can manage to not fuck things up (no guarantees there though). Countries might prefer dealing with lawful evil instead of chaotic evil. At least the former is predictable.

 

[Pens1566]

Yes, that is part of it. But the communication environment all these voters live in is corrupted and really buried the lede. More traditional media outlets aren't as powerful as they once were, but the media can still make things a scandal when it wants to.

Inflation was pretty much back down to normal by end of 2023, yet 2024 was filled with vibes-based stories on the economy, creating a gross feedback loop that just amplified negativity.

It all boils down to a large chunk of the population is just paste-eating stupid.

 

[fskimospy]

Yes, that is part of it. But the communication environment all these voters live in is corrupted and really buried the lede. More traditional media outlets aren't as powerful as they once were, but the media can still make things a scandal when it wants to.

Inflation was pretty much back down to normal by end of 2023, yet 2024 was filled with vibes-based stories on the economy, creating a gross feedback loop that just amplified negativity.

Yes, by far the best explanation is just the media environment. Nearly very news story, everywhere, was framed negatively about Biden.

The economic reporting was particularly awful - every story about record low unemployment, strong GDP growth, etc. was always framed with 'but clouds are on the horizon'. When the 'clouds' didn't materialize? Nothing changed. I remember (i think it was) Bloomberg reporting that there was a 100% chance of a recession in the coming year and when it didn't happen they just pretended they didn't publish that.

 

[K1052]

Yes, that is part of it. But the communication environment all these voters live in is corrupted and really buried the lede. More traditional media outlets aren't as powerful as they once were, but the media can still make things a scandal when it wants to.

Inflation was pretty much back down to normal by end of 2023, yet 2024 was filled with vibes-based stories on the economy, creating a gross feedback loop that just amplified negativity.

People are heavily predisposed to remembering the past as better (sometimes much better) than the present. Often entirely factually incorrectly. So the pitch that Trump would make it 2019 again with $1.50 gas, which happened in 2020 due to economic activity collapse, or whatever is appealing.

 

[Brainonska511]

It all boils down to a large chunk of the population is just paste-eating stupid.

Absolutely. And Democrats need to get on board with communicating to the paste eaters.

Keep the messaging simple and focused, and learn to operate in this asymmetric media environment. Pick a few, specific villains to harp on instead of nebulous "oligarchs" (Musk, Bezos, and Zuckerberg are all right there!), etc...

And then at the state level, Democrats need to actually get shit done. Tackle the cost of living issues in your states and then brag about it nonstop.

 

[K1052]

Yes, by far the best explanation is just the media environment. Nearly very news story, everywhere, was framed negatively about Biden.

The economic reporting was particularly awful - every story about record low unemployment, strong GDP growth, etc. was always framed with 'but clouds are on the horizon'. When the 'clouds' didn't materialize? Nothing changed. I remember (i think it was) Bloomberg reporting that there was a 100% chance of a recession in the coming year and when it didn't happen they just pretended they didn't publish that.

This is not untrue however the media's negativity bias is well known. Biden and the Dems should have countered, likely by just plastering his name on the checks and every single project in the country with a cent of federal funding.

 

[fskimospy]

This is not untrue however the media's negativity bias is well known. Biden and the Dems should have countered, likely by just plastering his name on the checks and every single project in the country with a cent of federal funding.

Negativity bias is definitely a thing but you can find plenty of articles from like 2018 or 2019 saying 'like him or not, you have to admit the economy is great under Trump!' and with an even better economy in 2024 the headlines were gloom and doom.

 

[K1052]

Negativity bias is definitely a thing but you can find plenty of articles from like 2018 or 2019 saying 'like him or not, you have to admit the economy is great under Trump!' and with an even better economy in 2024 the headlines were gloom and doom.

Thew media's Trump Curve is just as real a phenomenon. It's like in The Perfect Storm when two fronts converge and create a monster.

 

[Brainonska511]

Negativity bias is definitely a thing but you can find plenty of articles from like 2018 or 2019 saying 'like him or not, you have to admit the economy is great under Trump!' and with an even better economy in 2024 the headlines were gloom and doom.

It's particularly infuriating that reporters, editors, and columnists are all now like, "Trump is inheriting a great economy". Like, you didn't think that was worth communicating over the last year!? But they'll do no introspection, because they think their farts don't smell.

 

[K1052]

It's particularly infuriating that reporters, editors, and columnists are all now like, "Trump is inheriting a great economy". Like, you didn't think that was worth communicating over the last year!? But they'll do no introspection, because they think their farts don't smell.

We're definitely gonna get "Crime hits new lows under Trump" stories before the month of January is out lol.

 

[brycejones]

Absolutely. And Democrats need to get on board with communicating to the paste eaters.

Keep the messaging simple and focused, and learn to operate in this asymmetric media environment. Pick a few, specific villains to harp on instead of nebulous "oligarchs" (Musk, Bezos, and Zuckerberg are all right there!), etc...

And then at the state level, Democrats need to actually get shit done. Tackle the cost of living issues in your states and then brag about it nonstop.

Add Thiel to the list and talk about how he has built his fortune scraping all your info off the internet and building the kind of surveillance machine governments outside china can only dream about and selling that information to whoever.

 

[Brainonska511]

Add Thiel to the list and talk about how he has built his fortune scraping all your info off the internet and building the kind of surveillance machine governments outside china can only dream about and selling that information to whoever.

Thiel could be good, but harnessing more well-known people as a proxy may be better.

 

[gothuevos]

This is actually a good take by Fetterman, re: all the freak out about Greenland.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/5073218-fetterman-compares-trumps-greenland-talk-to-louisiana-purchase/?tbref=hp

 

[K1052]

This is actually a good take by Fetterman, re: all the freak out about Greenland.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/5073218-fetterman-compares-trumps-greenland-talk-to-louisiana-purchase/?tbref=hp

The French sold us inhabited lands they did not really own is probably not a great comparison unless one is also really jazzed about a new wave of US imperialism.

Anyway if Greenland voted for independence from Denmark and negotiated to join the US via legitimate process that's a real different animal.

 

[Muse]

How does that fix things when the problem is the adults over 35 who have zero critical thinking skills, and/or appear to have their heads squarely up their asses?

Well, you have to hope for the future, that's human nature. Getting the kids to learn how to think and evaluate will help that.

 

[gothuevos]

Absolutely. And Democrats need to get on board with communicating to the paste eaters.

Keep the messaging simple and focused, and learn to operate in this asymmetric media environment. Pick a few, specific villains to harp on instead of nebulous "oligarchs" (Musk, Bezos, and Zuckerberg are all right there!), etc...

And then at the state level, Democrats need to actually get shit done. Tackle the cost of living issues in your states and then brag about it nonstop.

Are you new to this planet?

In what world do the Democrats put together a semi-competent strategy like this?

Nah, be ready for Gavin Newsom calling voters deplorable and garbage if they don't vote for him and then wonder why he doesn't win.