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Discussion ***Official*** 2022 Stock Market Thread

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I'm going to use my Tesla money to buy a very loud aftermarket Capristo exhaust for the combustion V10 engine in the 2022 R8 I'm expecting to get delivered in April. The leftover money I'm going to spend on premium gas for it.
 
Just here to offer my periodic pontifications on the markets.

Since interest rates are the cost of money and since if you have any sort decent business model at all, you should be able to get returns that are multiples of the current applicable interest rate. Do you think Elon or the Zuck have ever gotten 'moist' over say 20% or 30% returns? Get out my face poser.

The question those guys are concerned with relate mainly to their cost of capital and if their projected returns will come in before their "burn rate" turns into a fire sale.

And this is where the average retail investor's tendency to oversimplify becomes obvious. By that I mean, they hear 'higher rates' and they immediately transform into dopesick whores who are quite sure that somewhere in this trap house rug there's gotta be enough for a bump. That's all I'm looking for dude, just a little bump. Ya feel me?

Sorry, but I needed to wax gibbous a tad.

Anyway, as long as the inflation component of rates is more or less nominal, small increments in rates is actually healthy. For the past 10+ years we've seen what happens when interest rates effectively go to zero. Sure it's great for business because it means they can probably get a positive return from whatever they decide to invest in. But on the other side of that equation are millions of risk averse investors who now, from their point of view at least, have to choose between trying to maintain their lifestyle BUT without dipping into their savings. Yeah. How'd that work out for you?

So let me offer some perspective. True or False - The fed wants to see zero or near zero inflation.

False as Madonna's titties. They do have a target though and it's anything that steadily buzzes around 2%. Why? sigh. That's not easily explained so let's assume that I'm not lying to you - for now. And while they'll never admit it publicly, they are rapturously happy that at long fucking last we're starting to see that there really is such a thing as 'inflation.'

The only problem is, that like the honey badger, the economy doesn't give a shit about what you want. But we're finally at a point in our economic development where we really can work miracles with just monetary policy (as compared to fiscal).

But then you get these 'black swan' events like covid that come along and seem to find all manner of ways to fuck with your shit. And those black swans can breed at a rate faster than rabbits could even dream of. So, introducing . . . tada - the supply chain. Say what? Exactly.

Now add on top of all that, ridonkulous amounts of fiscal spending not seen since Coesus Croesus minted his first gold coin.

To the moon you fucking apes, to the moooonnn
 
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Charmonium said:
And this is where the average retail investor's tendency to oversimplify becomes obvious. By that I mean, they hear 'higher rates' and they immediately transform into dopesick whores who are quite sure that somewhere in this trap house rug there's gotta be enough for a bump. That's all I'm looking for dude, just a little bump. Ya feel me?
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I got my bump. Know where I can find more? Just a little one. I swear this is the last time.
 
Rate hike odds next time have gone up to 100%, and even a double hike is at 12%. I'd love to see them do the double hike just for the lols. Would you hit the end of day circuit breaker immediately?

Roger Wilco said:
Thank you for the dip Tesla Bot.
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If there's one stock that should be getting creamed right now, it's Tesla. I generally think Not Tech/Meme stocks are going to do better relatively speaking for the time being.
 
Roger Wilco said:
Thank you for the dip Tesla Bot.
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Yeah, I think that investors are starting to realize that Elon is batshit crazy. He has hundreds of thousands of people waiting for their Cybertruck to be delivered, and he decides to take his primary focus off of that and onto building robots? He's gone full on Cuckoo Banana Bread!
 
jpiniero said:
Rate hike odds next time have gone up to 100%, and even a double hike is at 12%. I'd love to see them do the double hike just for the lols. Would you hit the end of day circuit breaker immediately?
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The last few large target rate increases were:
  • May 17, 1994, +0.5%
  • Aug 16, 1994, +0.5%
  • Nov 15, 1994, +0.75%
  • Feb 1, 1995, +0.5%
  • May 16, 2000, +0.5%
I don't think there was very much of any market movement on those days. But of course, those were preceded by several 0.25% increases in the target rate. Just starting with 0.5% would be unusual. It isn't like the rate goes up immediately anyways, it takes time for them to hit their target.
 
ultimatebob said:
Yeah, I think that investors are starting to realize that Elon is batshit crazy. He has hundreds of thousands of people waiting for their Cybertruck to be delivered, and he decides to take his primary focus off of that and onto building robots? He's gone full on Cuckoo Banana Bread!
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Pffft that's nothing. Remember when he smoked some pot then posted on Twitter that the company was sold for $420 a share?

Next thing you know he will be building rockets and calling people Senator Karen.
 
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My issue with investing in Tesla is that it's largely a company led by a cult leader. If he goes then so does the entire perception of company with it, he is the grease that keeps the cogs turning. Tesla isn't at the point of where a MS didn't need Bill, or Amazon not needing Bezos.

To much risk for me.
 
Artorias said:
My issue with investing in Tesla is that it's largely a company led by a cult leader. If he goes then so does the entire perception of company with it, he is the grease that keeps the cogs turning. Tesla isn't at the point of where a MS didn't need Bill, or Amazon not needing Bezos.

To much risk for me.
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The selling continues in Asia and Europe on the back of strong GDP over there
 
I still have a good chunk of VTI. Cost basis is $232. Then again, I did buy most after I sold all of my VGT mid December.
 
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