Discussion ***Official*** 2022 Stock Market Thread

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Artorias

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2014
2,239
1,544
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Well look at the 10 year graph of MSFT, it was basically headed in a parabolic trajectory which would have been insane.

I'm a long term MSFT holder and will get back in more.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
37,054
32,372
136
Bottom line is the world is extremely overpopulated.

We will NEVER have enough fresh water, food or other resources for everyone.

...

We throw away enough food in the US every day to feed the entire world. The entire world's population could live inside Texas without exceeding the population density of NYC.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,796
2,620
126
We throw away enough food in the US every day to feed the entire world. The entire world's population could live inside Texas without exceeding the population density of NYC.

That is the classic comeback.

They always bring up Texas and say all humans can live there. Since this will never happen it's easy to say.

But reality is food, water, affordable housing, well paying jobs are all in short supply as is. We are even putting sand in danger! (Google it)

It the Earth were the size of Texas there would be zero quality of life and we likely would have all killed each other over resources anyway. People crawling all over each other like roaches. Eww.

Quality of life is rather low in high density cities like NYC. You can live in a closet for several thousand per month and eat ramen 3x a day if you are single.
 

Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
12,046
2,763
136
That is the classic comeback.

They always bring up Texas and say all humans can live there. Since this will never happen it's easy to say.

But reality is food, water, affordable housing, well paying jobs are all in short supply as is. We are even putting sand in danger! (Google it)

It the Earth were the size of Texas there would be zero quality of life and we likely would have all killed each other over resources anyway. People crawling all over each other like roaches. Eww.

Quality of life is rather low in high density cities like NYC. You can live in a closet for several thousand per month and eat ramen 3x a day if you are single.
The food burden can be mitigated if suburbanites and rurals grow casual gardens for themselves. It also saves money because certain foods carry a steep markup, like blackberries. Now, there are matters like nutrient depletion, use of fertilizer, etc. But since home gardens are not strictly for profit, there isn't the pressure to maximize yields at all costs.

Water is a locality-dependent issue. In desert areas, local aquifiers, then yes, water is a concern. But if it's an area with free, consistent rain, well it's hard to argue there is a crisis when reservoirs are full.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,675
3,529
136
MSFT is now trading higher in after hours. Seems like there were some poor bets placed immediately after close.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,796
2,620
126
The food burden can be mitigated if suburbanites and rurals grow casual gardens for themselves. It also saves money because certain foods carry a steep markup, like blackberries. Now, there are matters like nutrient depletion, use of fertilizer, etc. But since home gardens are not strictly for profit, there isn't the pressure to maximize yields at all costs.

Water is a locality-dependent issue. In desert areas, local aquifiers, then yes, water is a concern. But if it's an area with free, consistent rain, well it's hard to argue there is a crisis when reservoirs are full.

Not to belabor the point (beat a dead horse), but here is a glimpse of what life is like in the overcrowded nation of Sri Lanka today:


A nation on the brink of bankruptcy, an annual 14% inflation rate, not enough flood and medicine to go around, a ban on car sales which has caused used cars to be worth more than homes, etc.


And a snapshot from 2019 of the countries fighting for enough water.


Capture.JPG

Things have worsened since then. Even America's Colorado river is in trouble:

 
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Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
12,046
2,763
136
Not to belabor the point (beat a dead horse), but here is a glimpse of what life is like in the overcrowded nation of Sri Lanka today:


A nation on the brink of bankruptcy, an annual 14% inflation rate, not enough flood and medicine to go around, a ban on car sales which has caused used cars to be worth more than homes, etc.


And a snapshot from 2019 of the countries fighting for enough water.


View attachment 56545

Things have worsened since then. Even America's Colorado river is running dry.

It seems that based on the article you present, Sri Lanka's issue is one of foreign exchange; a currency crisis of sorts from COVID causing a lack tourists visting.

They also wanted to go full organic and dump the use of fertilizer and pesticides.

Sri Lanka's issues are clearly a modern problem of being dependent on the global economy to live a "higher life". The collective has a green and "socialist" bent, even being a full welfare state before transition to a free market economy in 1977.

Also, no one but themselves approved of the policy to develop infrastructure to the point of bankruptcy.

By 2016, the country's debt soared as it was developing its infrastructure to the point of near bankruptcy which required a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)[252] The IMF had agreed to provide a US$1.5 billion bailout loan in April 2016 after Sri Lanka provided a set of criteria intended to improve its economy. By the fourth quarter of 2016, the debt was estimated to be $64.9 billion. Additional debt had been incurred in the past by state-owned organisations and this was said to be at least $9.5 billion. Since early 2015, domestic debt increased by 12% and external debt by 25%.[253] In November 2016, the IMF reported that the initial disbursement was larger than US$150 million originally planned, a full US$162.6 million (SDR 119.894 million). The agency's evaluation for the first tranche was cautiously optimistic about the future. Under the program Sri Lankan government implemented a new Inland Revenue Act and an automatic fuel pricing formula which were noted by the IMF in its fourth review. In 2018 China agreed to bail out Sri Lanka with a loan of $1.25 billion to deal with foreign debt repayment spikes in 2019 to 2021.

Also, their population pyramid is not inverted, thus their governmental financial crisis is not because of a failure to have a taxable base to fund seniors and their SS.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sri_Lanka

And personally, I say fuck them because one of their spawn made $150 off my back for some dental Xrays and displayed predatory behavior.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,796
2,620
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We always get a bounce. Since the Fed is unlikely to raise a full 1-2% today like it should, on oversold bounce is likely.

However the question is after the Fed makes a measured case for raising today, will next month jobs report shock the shit out of the market again and the worries over rates drag down the 10% rally we see in the next few days?

You really can't trust things right now if you are trying to short term trade.

This probably explains the volatility.

In the end, even if rates go back up to 2% it's not the end of world. But because the fed is likely to drag its feet doing it, by the time we get there next year the normal business cycle of contraction will likely be in play for 2023, which will likely call for easing again.

Stupid Fed. ;)
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,675
3,529
136
I'm certainly short term trading. My plan entails me being a Tesla shareholder for only 4 days.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,675
3,529
136
People that dislike Biden want a recession, thereby "proving" their political views.
There is certainly a lot of pent up negativity. Don't know if politics has anything to do with it. I try my best to avoid negativity and therefore the P&N forum.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
16,493
6,987
136
Fed didn't really change their message on claiming to do hikes soon but left some wiggle room. A small pop in stocks but not much. We'll see if it lasts.

The March meeting is the important one. Current "odds" are 95% for a hike. They will need to come up with a good excuse then.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,675
3,529
136
Hit a stop limit on TSLA at $950 for all 180 shares. Didn't think it would hit that after I set it just after 2PM. Put it there to be safe for when old man Powell was to speak. I was hoping it would stay high and go higher into tomorrow. Oh well. I made an easy gain off of it.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,796
2,620
126
Hit a stop limit on TSLA at $950 for all 180 shares. Didn't think it would hit that after I set it just after 2PM. Put it there to be safe for when old man Powell was to speak. I was hoping it would stay high and go higher into tomorrow. Oh well. I made an easy gain off of it.

I wonder if tonight's earnings will push it back over 1000.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,675
3,529
136
I'm happy with my 180 @ $950. Bought them at $880 on Monday. Not bad for two days.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,675
3,529
136
I really did think investors would react positively to Tesla's earning report or else I wouldn't have bought.

My thinking at the time was the markets would be higher up to and through the 2PM fed report release. That would add a tailwind for a positive TSLA report. It obviously fell apart with Powell saying things that triggered investors. Good thing I had guardrails in mind.