Discussion ***Official*** 2022 Stock Market Thread

[Artorias]

I think the rally just further shows we are in a massive bubble. It's like the calm(relatively) before the storm, gonna guess Russia going into Ukraine, then more bond yield pressure throughout the year will push it down. Personally I think this will be the year of the bear.

 

[PlanetJosh]

^ But the three major indexes all finished positive today. And I missed a chance to sell just before the close! Oh would've lost, bought it the last week of Dec, and it's a big tech stock.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Maybe word leaked out what JPow will use as the excuse to not hike? Russia invading Ukraine perhaps?

So long as war will bring Inflation down....oh wait...it doesnt.

 

[Train]

wow, logged into my TD acct expecting to see a bloodbath. Surprised to see literally everything up for the day. Except Ford, which is still well above its average.

 

[AdamK47]

Fed rate hike: One half or one quarter percentage point in March? What do you guys think?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Fed rate hike: One half or one quarter percentage point in March? What do you guys think?

Honestly, the best medicine is two consecutive 1% rate hikes. That is near where it was before the pandemic started. Just get it over with and be done with it.

Otherwise they will do the classic .25% per quarter move. One year, 1%, next year another percent. By then the economy will be back in the dumps and they will cut back to zero.

With the country now $30 trillion in debt, anything more than 2% would have serious consequences.

"Back in the day" (before the year 2000), the Fed did not give a shit about hiking rates. They would even do it between Fed meetings. They were the bubble cops. The market was always fearful of letting things get out of hand because the Fed would step and beat the shit out of those that did.



"Dont fight the Fed" used to have dual meanings - when they are easing rates you go long ....but it also worked in reverse....when they are tightening....sell or YOU GO SHORT. Do not fight the Fed EITHER way. Over time some realized that you should not try to time the markets, just average in on big dips and big highs.


Today the Feds only job is to kiss ass, give money away and keep the government from paying too much in interest on the decades of reckless spending it has amassed in debt.

 

[jpiniero]

Looks like the opening is going to be a repeat of yesterday.

 

[AdamK47]

I believe the fed when they told everyone they wanted to engineer a soft landing. They haven't been very good about it in the past. We all know the first is in March now. Moved up from the middle of the year. My hope is the first one is a quarter. Subsequent ones at a half.

 

[jpiniero]

I believe the fed when they told everyone they wanted to engineer a soft landing.

That ship sailed a long time ago.

 

[AdamK47]

That ship sailed a long time ago.

SS Rate Hike is still at port.

 

[jpiniero]

SS Rate Hike is still at port.

There's no soft landing. It's do nothing or crash. If the Fed was actually serious about raising rates they would be very aggressive about tapering first since their trillions in debt they hold would become toxic immediately. Let alone anything else.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Homes around me are selling for 35-40% more than what prices were back in August 2020 (when we bought) despite 30-year fixed mortgage rates being nearly 1% higher. Factoring in those higher rates, it costs about 50-60% more to own a now than it did not even a year and a half ago. That's just insane for real estate. Granted I am cherry picking this window of opportunity (in hindsight) that opened up for real-estate not long after COVID began because home prices remained stable while rates plummeted. Still, I'll be pretty shocked if they do nothing.

I'm guessing they'll start easy to avoid too much of a shock, and then go hard the next one. If they can repeat a 2018 where the markets went flat and maybe even only lose ~5-10% off these extreme highs while jacking up the rates, I'd say that's a pretty win for them. But either way, I think they need to do something because inflation is the bigger threat than a temporary bear market.

 

[Brainonska511]

Homes around me are selling for 35-40% more than what prices were back in August 2020 (when we bought) despite 30-year fixed mortgage rates being nearly 1% higher. Factoring in those higher rates, it costs about 50-60% more to own a now than it did not even a year and a half ago. That's just insane for real estate. Granted I am cherry picking this window of opportunity (in hindsight) that opened up for real-estate not long after COVID began because home prices remained stable while rates plummeted. Still, I'll be pretty shocked if they do nothing.

Home prices are high because there isn't enough housing stock in places where people want to live. It's fundamentally a different market than the housing boom of the late 2000s.

 

[Train]

There's no soft landing. It's do nothing or crash.

We're in orbit without a heat shield. If we tried to land we would burn up on reentry. We instead have to keep burning to maintain altitude. Enjoy the view.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Lol @ the short vol crowd and plunge protection team.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Home prices are high because there isn't enough housing stock in places where people want to live. It's fundamentally a different market than the housing boom of the late 2000s.

Home prices are also high because morons go in and borrow $10,000,000 and buy a portfolio of 100 to 200 rent homes enslaving the renters for life and keeping all the equity for themselves.

Did I mention most of it is tax free until the $10M is recouped? Then the throw it into a tax free exchange and avoid capital gains indefinitely by buying an apartment complex or another property portfolio.

With rents between $2000 to $3000 in some areas it makes you realize why there is a shortage of properties and a pandemic of homelessness.

If you are single making $50,000 a year in some areas, you will be sleeping in your car.

 

[Brainonska511]

Home prices are also high because morons go in and borrow $10,000,000 and buy a portfolio of 100 to 200 rent homes enslaving the renters for life and keeping all the equity for themselves.

Did I mention most of it is tax free until the $10M is recouped? Then the throw it into a tax free exchange and avoid capital gains indefinitely by buying an apartment complex or another property portfolio.

With rents between $2000 to $3000 in some areas it makes you realize why there is a shortage of properties and a pandemic of homelessness.

The supply problem is obvious: high home prices and high rental prices in desirable markets. Populations have grown but housing construction has not kept up.

 

[brianmanahan]

The supply problem is obvious: high home prices and high rental prices in desirable markets. Populations have grown but housing construction has not kept up.

i am pretty certain that my area is not a desirable market, at all

and yet people are still trying to sell houses for 200$k that were worth 100$k 3 or 4 years ago

though by now very few houses are selling, because people want to get 400$k for a decent house or 200$k for an absolute junker, and almost nobody is willing to buy at that price

(actually most people around here cannot afford it)

so it's like a stalemate where most houses are for sale for a few months, don't sell, and are taken off the market

 

[Brainonska511]

i am pretty certain that my area is not a desirable market, at all

and yet people are still buying houses for 200$k that sold for 100$k 5 years ago

That's also because people are getting pushed out further and further to places they can afford.

I would also add that we know it's a supply problem because investor groups like Blackrock put in their public filings about buying up housing that they for see restricted supply and harsh zoning laws restricting future supply as key to making lots of money in housing.

 

[jpiniero]

Lol @ the short vol crowd and plunge protection team.

That would be pretty counterproductive to use the PPT.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bottom line is the world is extremely overpopulated.

We will NEVER have enough fresh water, food or other resources for everyone.

 

[FelixDeCat]

That would be pretty counterproductive to use the PPT.

They keep trying to have a positive close. That's the mark of PPT. Where have you been the last 30 years?

It could also be the worthless short vol crowd. I hate those bastards.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Microsoft falling hard after hours....

 

[AdamK47]

MSFT beats.expectations yet the stock tumbles. What are investors seeing?

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Tried to come back. Touched on par, but .....