***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[Udgnim]

https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA:UNG
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA:USO
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Commodity_Funds

These are two ETFs for US Natural Gas and US Oil.
They have been suffering BAD since inception.
Does anyone know their history?
Why were they started in 2006-7, which seems like their peak?

I have an urge to invest in one or both of these, but I also wanted to a few months back and they have dropped a ton more since then.

Will Oil/Natural Gas ever recover to 2008 levels?
If so, would these ETFs rise with the gas prices?

God, I am such a noob.

both can decay, meaning either are not very good to hold long term

oil is not going to spike up in price any time soon unless OPEC announces production cuts (small possibility in December) or there's some significant event affecting the oil rich countries in the Middle East

currently, US shale acts like a ceiling on how high oil can spike up because if the price of WTI gets too high, then shale rigs start pumping again

oil is down due to major oversupply caused by OPEC overproducing in an attempt to bankrupt US shale companies, and it's going to take years for things to play out before the oversupply problem corrects itself and oil price rebounds to higher levels

 

[Imp]

Why does everyone associate gold with apocalypse? If I lived outside the US, I would make sure I have some gold just to hedge against currency risk. Gold vs various world currencies 3rd quarter 2015. You live in Canada. Gold has done very well against currency of countries who depend on exporting natural resources like Canada, Australia, and Brazil. That said, I expect gold to drop further against the US dollar.

You have to read everything I write tongue-in-cheek. Anyway, I think I heard gold's done better relative to the CAD because it's traded in USD. No problem because I turned 90% of my savings into USD around this time last year and done very good in the past year. If I didn't play oil so badly, I would be even better.

<snip in case someone takes you too seriously>

I think the "deposits" by other people would be more concerning. If the new world order begins, they'll be looted by people with guns and power tools very early on -- that's if the bank employees don't clean house before leaving and locking the vault before they leave. I'm not saying I believe this will be happening, just that if this were to happen...

Having said that, I wouldn't mind having a few 10 oz bars of gold. Google says gold melts at 1064 C so that's a pretty nice fire-safe deposit.

 

[FelixDeCat]

FED says WILL raise rates in Dec.

 

[sm625]

The Fed statement says: "In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting" whereas the previous meeting they said "In determining how long to maintain this target range". That is far from a commitment to raise rates. It is just as likely they will annouce QE4 in December. That is what the market is screaming for anyway.

 

[Imp]

Looks like USD fell since oil and CAD both went up after the announcement.

All the newspapers I checked say the December rate hike is "in play" but no guarantee. That hike is two job reports away and I doubt they're going to look great.

Edit: Okay, Cushing storage fell more than expected. Explains the oil more.

 

[FelixDeCat]

yeah, no

 

[Imp]

Sorry, I think rates are going up in December ... and the market will fall 10% from its current highs before 12/31/15.

*Fingers crossed*

Things will be a lot easier for me if it happens... Final-fuqing-ly.

Absolutely staying in all cash until December 16 (?). Might convert the last 5% of my CAD into USD though.

 

[rcpratt]

Natural gas is very intriguing to me right now. $2.25 for December and doesn't even touch $2.50 until next summer. I know shale has driven supply through the roof, but demand will rebound.

With the cheap prices that we saw during October, one of our natural gas peaker plant burned nearly 1 Bcf -- unheard of in a shoulder month for a plant that usually only goes through 5-7 Bcf each year. I guess it must say something that prices have only continued to go lower even with increased power generation burn lately, but with significant coal plant retirements upcoming in April 2016 due to MATS and even more significantly in 2022 due to the Clean Power Plan, gas-fired generation is going to increase exponentially.

I just need to find a good way to invest. As noted above, ETFs like UNG are generally pretty poor long term. But I guess it makes sense for an asset where storage is so relatively limited and expensive.

It will be interesting to see how much lower it will go short-term if this El Nino comes through. Storage is about to hit record levels already.

 

[Imp]

Natural gas is very intriguing to me right now. $2.25 for December and doesn't even touch $2.50 until next summer. I know shale has driven supply through the roof, but demand will rebound.

Slight derail...

I took a bunch of courses about building energy efficient "green" homes in college. My professor kept telling us that the extra costs would pay for themselves because natural gas costs were going up... lololololol.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Slight derail...

I took a bunch of courses about building energy efficient "green" homes in college. My professor kept telling us that the extra costs would pay for themselves because natural gas costs were going up... lololololol.

Hence why you take advice from economics. Not moron's that think they know what the market will do based on the market they work in. That definitely won't be biased...

 

[Train]

Slight derail...

I took a bunch of courses about building energy efficient "green" homes in college. My professor kept telling us that the extra costs would pay for themselves because natural gas costs were going up... lololololol.

Got a quote for solar on my house. Break even point was ~20 years, but that depended on the cost of electricity going up 7% EVERY year. The cost hasn't gone up at all in the 7 years I've had my house.

 

[rcpratt]

Got a quote for solar on my house. Break even point was ~20 years, but that depended on the cost of electricity going up 7% EVERY year. The cost hasn't gone up at all in the 7 years I've had my house.

I'd take the over on 7%, at least in my area. New environmental regulations are going to drive a ton of new plants.

 

[TheGardener]

Got a quote for solar on my house. Break even point was ~20 years, but that depended on the cost of electricity going up 7% EVERY year. The cost hasn't gone up at all in the 7 years I've had my house.

You live in the wrong state. Here electricity went up nearly 100% in a month last November. Then you were forced to embrace green energy. That way your electricity only went up 60%. The explanation for the original increase was that the cost of natural gas soared. Funny everything I read in the business news said it went down. Must have been a typo.

The latest is that our only nuclear plant is closing. That will impact our cost of electricity.

 

[Train]

I'd take the over on 7%, at least in my area. New environmental regulations are going to drive a ton of new plants.

That was 2 years ago. Rates haven't budged. Still working out to ~15 cents per KWH.

I could see a rate jump at some point, but 7% every year for 20 years? No way

 

[rcpratt]

That was 2 years ago. Rates haven't budged. Still working out to ~15 cents per KWH.

I could see a rate jump at some point, but 7% every year for 20 years? No way

What was two years ago? The big environmental regulations haven't been implemented yet.

 

[Imp]

We have time-based pricing. I think the peak is about $0.15 right now, lowest is $0.11.

A lot of other bullshit charges are tacked on though (e.g. delivery fee).

 

[Imp]

Mortgage fraud in Canada...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ying-to-help-clients-qualify/article27051297/

How long was it before the U.S. housing market crashed when stories of widespread fraud started getting out... Good times a'coming.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Well the QQQs hit a 52 week high today. I dumped my puts and bought calls. Hopefully FB reports come in better than expected and the

QQQs go over 115 !!

 

[JTsyo]

Well it looks like we might be taking a shot at the highs sometime this week.

 

[Imp]

Bought some POT yesterday... Up 4%. Damn, I only went in with a small position. That USD I bought is down though.

 

[Attic]

Tesla just posted a loss of $1.78 per share vs a loss of $0.60 a share a year ago.

Stock up 10%.

There is a lot of hype building for the Model X.

 

[jpiniero]

Forget about the rate increase, Wall Street must be thinking the QE talk is legit.

Totally hilarious.

 

[FelixDeCat]

QQQs go back to 113/114 after FB earnings. :|

 

[Charmonium]

And S&P 500 p/e's are back to what they were before the carnage in August.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-eyes-a-wary-start-to-november-with-ism-ahead-2015-11-02

 

[brianmanahan]

%10 drop is a carnage?

color me carnaged.