***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

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Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Market seems to be up on speculation that Fed won't raise rate, if they do, it will probably go back to the August/September lows -- 10+% drop. From what I've heard, earnings and market indicators are down, oil is perpetually oversupplied. How the hell do you play in this environment when Fed can tank everything in a moment once per month on pre-scheduled days...
 
Charmonium

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,582
3,561
136
Imp said:
Market seems to be up on speculation that Fed won't raise rate, if they do, it will probably go back to the August/September lows -- 10+% drop. From what I've heard, earnings and market indicators are down, oil is perpetually oversupplied. How the hell do you play in this environment when Fed can tank everything in a moment once per month on pre-scheduled days...
Click to expand...
Market popped on news from ECB implying that they would do more QE.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,089
2,712
126
Last time the QQQs were near this level it was time to sell. We are up $4 in two days alone.

You would have made a killing buying some cheap weekly calls just on Wednesday. :eek:
 
M

MustISO

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
11,927
12
81
I really wish I understood options, wouldn't mind gambling a little money. Friends have done it in the past and done either really well or very bad.

Might up my stop loss orders a little to try and come out with something should the market tank. Everyday it goes up I think I should sell and take the profits.
 
sm625

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
Cowa-frickin-bunga! That feeling you get when you wake up in the morning, and your calls, which were already up 300%, just went ballistic.... priceless.


Code: 
2015-09-23      61.9 chg    7.6, score:   69.5 graph:   98.1 BUY
2015-09-24      64.6 chg    2.7, score:   67.4 graph:  103.4 BUY
2015-09-25      52.1 chg  -12.5, score:   39.6 graph:  102.4 BUY
2015-09-28       4.0 chg  -48.1, score:  -44.1 graph:   86.3 (sell in 83.8 days)
2015-09-29       5.4 chg    1.4, score:    6.8 graph:   85.7 (sell in 83.0 days)
2015-09-30       2.1 chg   -3.3, score:   -1.2 graph:   84.1 (sell in 82.0 days)
2015-10-01      14.0 chg   11.9, score:   25.8 graph:   88.4 (sell in 82.1 days)
2015-10-02      25.1 chg   11.1, score:   36.2 graph:   92.9 BUY
2015-10-05      10.8 chg  -14.3, score:   -3.5 graph:   90.1 (sell in 88.2 days)
2015-10-06       7.6 chg   -3.1, score:    4.5 graph:   88.4 (sell in 87.4 days)
2015-10-07      -1.7 chg   -9.3, score:  -10.9 graph:   84.3 (sell in 86.0 days)
2015-10-08      -1.4 chg    0.2, score:   -1.2 graph:   83.8 (sell in 84.9 days)
2015-10-09      -1.7 chg   -0.2, score:   -1.9 graph:   83.3 (sell in 83.8 days)
2015-10-12      -6.2 chg   -4.5, score:  -10.7 graph:   81.1 (sell in 82.4 days)
2015-10-13     -10.6 chg   -4.4, score:  -15.0 graph:   78.7 (sell in 80.8 days)
2015-10-14     -14.9 chg   -4.3, score:  -19.2 graph:   76.3 (sell in 76.0 days)
2015-10-15      -4.3 chg   10.6, score:    6.3 graph:   78.7 (sell in 71.2 days)
2015-10-16      -5.0 chg   -0.7, score:   -5.7 graph:   76.5 (sell in 65.0 days)
2015-10-19      -2.2 chg    2.7, score:    0.5 graph:   75.1 (sell in 58.0 days)
2015-10-20      -9.5 chg   -7.3, score:  -16.9 graph:   69.4 (sell in 49.3 days)
2015-10-21     -23.2 chg  -13.6, score:  -36.8 graph:   60.5 (sell in 38.8 days)
2015-10-22       1.5 chg   24.7, score:   26.2 graph:   66.1 (sell in 38.9 days)
2015-10-23       0.9 chg   -0.6, score:    0.2 graph:   65.9 (sell in 37.9 days)

I know it says there's 37 days left but I'm taking most of it off the table now. It is tough to sit on a 8 bagger.
 
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JEDI

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
sm625 said:
Cowa-frickin-bunga! That feeling you get when you wake up in the morning, and your calls, which were already up 300%, just went ballistic.... priceless.


Code: 
2015-09-23      61.9 chg    7.6, score:   69.5 graph:   98.1 BUY
2015-09-24      64.6 chg    2.7, score:   67.4 graph:  103.4 BUY
2015-09-25      52.1 chg  -12.5, score:   39.6 graph:  102.4 BUY
2015-09-28       4.0 chg  -48.1, score:  -44.1 graph:   86.3 (sell in 83.8 days)
2015-09-29       5.4 chg    1.4, score:    6.8 graph:   85.7 (sell in 83.0 days)
2015-09-30       2.1 chg   -3.3, score:   -1.2 graph:   84.1 (sell in 82.0 days)
2015-10-01      14.0 chg   11.9, score:   25.8 graph:   88.4 (sell in 82.1 days)
2015-10-02      25.1 chg   11.1, score:   36.2 graph:   92.9 BUY
2015-10-05      10.8 chg  -14.3, score:   -3.5 graph:   90.1 (sell in 88.2 days)
2015-10-06       7.6 chg   -3.1, score:    4.5 graph:   88.4 (sell in 87.4 days)
2015-10-07      -1.7 chg   -9.3, score:  -10.9 graph:   84.3 (sell in 86.0 days)
2015-10-08      -1.4 chg    0.2, score:   -1.2 graph:   83.8 (sell in 84.9 days)
2015-10-09      -1.7 chg   -0.2, score:   -1.9 graph:   83.3 (sell in 83.8 days)
2015-10-12      -6.2 chg   -4.5, score:  -10.7 graph:   81.1 (sell in 82.4 days)
2015-10-13     -10.6 chg   -4.4, score:  -15.0 graph:   78.7 (sell in 80.8 days)
2015-10-14     -14.9 chg   -4.3, score:  -19.2 graph:   76.3 (sell in 76.0 days)
2015-10-15      -4.3 chg   10.6, score:    6.3 graph:   78.7 (sell in 71.2 days)
2015-10-16      -5.0 chg   -0.7, score:   -5.7 graph:   76.5 (sell in 65.0 days)
2015-10-19      -2.2 chg    2.7, score:    0.5 graph:   75.1 (sell in 58.0 days)
2015-10-20      -9.5 chg   -7.3, score:  -16.9 graph:   69.4 (sell in 49.3 days)
2015-10-21     -23.2 chg  -13.6, score:  -36.8 graph:   60.5 (sell in 38.8 days)
2015-10-22       1.5 chg   24.7, score:   26.2 graph:   66.1 (sell in 38.9 days)
2015-10-23       0.9 chg   -0.6, score:    0.2 graph:   65.9 (sell in 37.9 days)

I know it says there's 37 days left but I'm taking most of it off the table now. It is tough to sit on a 8 bagger.
Click to expand...

does your 10/16 prediction remain the same?
switch to cash equivalents at the end of today?
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,089
2,712
126
Ok so my NAS 5000 call has come to pass.

Now you can ... sell.

The last week of October is not usually the best for stocks. :|
 
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sm625

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
JEDI said:
does your 10/16 prediction remain the same?
switch to cash equivalents at the end of today?
Click to expand...

Well its not a prediction so much as it is a rule. The rule says if the 20W crosses under the 50W by more than 1%, we are in a long term bear market. This is going to happen, it has happened already actually, as of last week it was -1.045%. The only question is will the market whipsaw around like it did in 2010 and 2011? It is very possible. But I would say yes, all in all, because following this rule produces the greater historical gains, even if the next few weeks of potential missed gains could result in some remorse. I think an even smarter move would be to wait until the market at least turns in its first negative week. That is what I am going to do, assuming my indicator produces no more bullish signals.
 
Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
sm625 said:
Well its not a prediction so much as it is a rule. The rule says if the 20W crosses under the 50W by more than 1%, we are in a long term bear market. This is going to happen, it has happened already actually, as of last week it was -1.045%. The only question is will the market whipsaw around like it did in 2010 and 2011? It is very possible. But I would say yes, all in all, because following this rule produces the greater historical gains, even if the next few weeks of potential missed gains could result in some remorse. I think an even smarter move would be to wait until the market at least turns in its first negative week. That is what I am going to do, assuming my indicator produces no more bullish signals.
Click to expand...

So much remorse. So damn much remorse to just sit on the sidelines right now. Stocks have hit a few of my own "buy now, stupid!" rules a few times in the past months, but I've stayed out and watched them rise 10%. On the other hand, I barely made 2-3% a few years following those rules. Buy/hold (if you count sitting on foreign currency) has me up 10% on the year right now (paper gains) -- twas up 12% a month ago.

Meanwhile: Canada's inflation rate dropped to 1.0% and the dollar tanked half a cent relative to USD -- meanwhile, everything has gotten 30% more expensive in the last year due to the exchange rate, but whatever the hell they use to measure inflation says it's okay so it must be okay.
 
J

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
16,951
7,370
136
sm625 said:
Well its not a prediction so much as it is a rule. The rule says if the 20W crosses under the 50W by more than 1%, we are in a long term bear market.
Click to expand...

This is not a normal market though. As long as the Fed doesn't raise rates and the pumping continues you should expect volatility but generally upward. Until it all falls apart and you get the mother of all crashes.
 
Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Sounds like I should use my USD to buy Bitcoins and gold.

What are the chances of me making it home alive if I were to go out and buy a brick of gold?
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,089
2,712
126
Imp said:
So much remorse. So damn much remorse to just sit on the sidelines right now. Stocks have hit a few of my own "buy now, stupid!" rules a few times in the past months, but I've stayed out and watched them rise 10%. On the other hand, I barely made 2-3% a few years following those rules. Buy/hold (if you count sitting on foreign currency) has me up 10% on the year right now (paper gains) -- twas up 12% a month ago.

Meanwhile: Canada's inflation rate dropped to 1.0% and the dollar tanked half a cent relative to USD -- meanwhile, everything has gotten 30% more expensive in the last year due to the exchange rate, but whatever the hell they use to measure inflation says it's okay so it must be okay.
Click to expand...


look man, you'll get your chance

this is just a 3rd quarter bump on earnings like I said would happen

in 7 days or less the QQQs will start giving up the ghost again

...never fails

(ps. you don't have a santa clause rally before you have an Oct/Nov sell off)
 
brianmanahan

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,638
6,016
136
Imp said:
Sounds like I should use my USD to buy Bitcoins and gold.

What are the chances of me making it home alive if I were to go out and buy a brick of gold?
Click to expand...

just get it shipped to your house

i buy gold coins and just get them mailed to me
 
T

Train

Lifer
Jun 22, 2000
13,590
86
91
www.bing.com
Imp said:
Sounds like I should use my USD to buy Bitcoins and gold.

What are the chances of me making it home alive if I were to go out and buy a brick of gold?
Click to expand...

Where you gonna find a "brick"?

Most coin/jewelry/pawn shops aren't gonna have any gold larger than an ounce, which they would probably sell you for $1300. an ounce of gold is pretty tiny, you could put it in your wallet.

If you're serious, there's this bad boy: http://www.apmex.com/product/11934/1-kilo-gold-bar-various-mints Which they will send to your door in a non-descript package.
 
Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Train said:
Where you gonna find a "brick"?

Most coin/jewelry/pawn shops aren't gonna have any gold larger than an ounce, which they would probably sell you for $1300. an ounce of gold is pretty tiny, you could put it in your wallet.

If you're serious, there's this bad boy: http://www.apmex.com/product/11934/1-kilo-gold-bar-various-mints Which they will send to your door in a non-descript package.
Click to expand...

Yum. I may be 5% serious. Having to worry about being murdered over a 1 kg bar of anything I keep at home doesn't seem worth it -- why keep it in a safety deposit box/bank if I'm getting it in case there's a new world order?
 
T

Train

Lifer
Jun 22, 2000
13,590
86
91
www.bing.com
Imp said:
Yum. I may be 5% serious. Having to worry about being murdered over a 1 kg bar of anything I keep at home doesn't seem worth it -- why keep it in a safety deposit box/bank if I'm getting it in case there's a new world order?
Click to expand...

Apocalypse gold is probably better in smaller units than a 1 kilo bar. Maybe the 1/10th ounce coins or 1 gram bars are better for that.

Most of the prepper crowd prefers junk silver for that purpose though. Pre-1965 dimes and quarters are 90% silver, and usually trade for the wholesale price of silver in them at any given time.
 
S

s0me0nesmind1

Lifer
Nov 8, 2012
20,842
4,785
146
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
Imp said:
Yum. I may be 5% serious. Having to worry about being murdered over a 1 kg bar of anything I keep at home doesn't seem worth it -- why keep it in a safety deposit box/bank if I'm getting it in case there's a new world order?
Click to expand...

Why does everyone associate gold with apocalypse? If I lived outside the US, I would make sure I have some gold just to hedge against currency risk. Gold vs various world currencies 3rd quarter 2015. You live in Canada. Gold has done very well against currency of countries who depend on exporting natural resources like Canada, Australia, and Brazil. That said, I expect gold to drop further against the US dollar.
 
sm625

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
Imp said:
Yum. I may be 5% serious. Having to worry about being murdered over a 1 kg bar of anything I keep at home doesn't seem worth it -- why keep it in a safety deposit box/bank if I'm getting it in case there's a new world order?
Click to expand...

That is not a very rational notion. There is no way something like that is going to happen here. If I have a 1Kg gold bar in a safe deposit box, and the bank tries to screw me out of it... then let's just say the bank will be getting a deposit of lead. And even if I didnt go that far, I guarantee you someone would. Potentially a whole lot of someones. It is better to keep gold at home, and simply make sure nobody ever knows about it. There's probably no need to have over around 20 ounces of gold anyway. Beyond that, other assets make more sense, like timber, storable food, solar panels, toiletries, guns and ammo, RVs, etc. All those things are somewhat fungible.
 
edro

edro

Lifer
Apr 5, 2002
24,326
68
91
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA:UNG
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA:USO
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Commodity_Funds

These are two ETFs for US Natural Gas and US Oil.
They have been suffering BAD since inception. (down 70-90%)
Does anyone know their history?
Why were they started in 2006-7, which seems like their peak?

I have an urge to invest in some "energy", but I wanted to a few months back and they have dropped quite a bit since then.

Will Oil/Natural Gas ever recover to 2008 levels? Enough to hold for 10 years?
If so, would these ETFs rise with the gas prices?
Part of me thinks this collapse in US oil is here to stay because of the move to electric and the abundance of domestic oil.

God, I am such a noob.

Give me your thoughts! Thanks! :)
 
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