***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

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J

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
16,825
7,268
136
Walmart increased wages for some reason, that's why the big profit drop.

Last time I went there they did have self checkout, so I was able to get out pretty quickly.
 
Charmonium

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,544
3,540
136
Wages seem to be the issue - http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/14/investing/walmart-outlook-wages/

If this is really true, you would expect Walmart to raise prices. It's not like anyone can compete against their buying power. But at the same time, wages in China and other places with cheap labor, are also going up putting pressure on exports from China and to places like Walmart.

But higher earnings should translate into more consumer spending. Since almost 70% of GDP is consumer spending, this should be a good thing. Except consumer confidence has been declining which means even though people are getting paid more, they're less inclined to spend.
 
OverVolt

OverVolt

Lifer
Aug 31, 2002
14,278
89
91
Charmonium said:
Wages seem to be the issue - http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/14/investing/walmart-outlook-wages/

If this is really true, you would expect Walmart to raise prices. It's not like anyone can compete against their buying power. But at the same time, wages in China and other places with cheap labor, are also going up putting pressure on exports from China and to places like Walmart.

But higher earnings should translate into more consumer spending. Since almost 70% of GDP is consumer spending, this should be a good thing. Except consumer confidence has been declining which means even though people are getting paid more, they're less inclined to spend.
Click to expand...

Or maybe people aren't as predictable as you think they are. :)

I was joking the sears magazine must have been the Amazon of its day and now they're just the end store of every mall that sells appliances.

Walmart has issues with its consumer base. There was a guy who just lit Halloween costumes on fire with lighter fluid. Ultimately you pay for that. I think aldi, while cheap, kind of keeps the trouble away with their weird rules.

Earnings (wages I presume) have been a joke for about a decade IMO compared to housing/healthcare/education inflation.
 
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S

s0me0nesmind1

Lifer
Nov 8, 2012
20,842
4,785
146
Charmonium said:
Wages seem to be the issue - http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/14/investing/walmart-outlook-wages/

If this is really true, you would expect Walmart to raise prices. It's not like anyone can compete against their buying power. But at the same time, wages in China and other places with cheap labor, are also going up putting pressure on exports from China and to places like Walmart.

But higher earnings should translate into more consumer spending. Since almost 70% of GDP is consumer spending, this should be a good thing. Except consumer confidence has been declining which means even though people are getting paid more, they're less inclined to spend.
Click to expand...

Call me crazy, but I never thought Walmart had good prices to begin with. They seem like standard pricing, except their prices end in .88 instead of 99 or something of that nature. I find it's much better to go to a place like Target and buy things they have on sale over the "standard low prices" at Walmart.

Also, most people link Walmart spending/profits with an overall "How consumers are doing" chart. Basically, if sales are good at Walmart they report "Consumers are spending". If sales are bad at Walmart "Consumers are holding their money" and retail stocks all around fall with it.
 
KB

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,406
389
126
s0me0nesmind1 said:
Walmart down 9% for projected flat sales this next quarter. Holy shit....

Are Americans changing, or just bad times?
Click to expand...

Do a search for walmart sales decline in google and you will find a story about it for every year since 2011. So either walmart sales are really declining every year and they will be bankrupt soon or sales are cyclical and markets are cyclical and walmart will be just fine. I think the latter.
 
OverVolt

OverVolt

Lifer
Aug 31, 2002
14,278
89
91
s0me0nesmind1 said:
Call me crazy, but I never thought Walmart had good prices to begin with. They seem like standard pricing, except their prices end in .88 instead of 99 or something of that nature. I find it's much better to go to a place like Target and buy things they have on sale over the "standard low prices" at Walmart.

Also, most people link Walmart spending/profits with an overall "How consumers are doing" chart. Basically, if sales are good at Walmart they report "Consumers are spending". If sales are bad at Walmart "Consumers are holding their money" and retail stocks all around fall with it.
Click to expand...

You are correct.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...aper-than-wal-mart-as-gap-widest-in-two-years
 
OverVolt

OverVolt

Lifer
Aug 31, 2002
14,278
89
91
KB said:
Do a search for walmart sales decline in google and you will find a story about it for every year since 2011. So either walmart sales are really declining every year and they will be bankrupt soon or sales are cyclical and markets are cyclical and walmart will be just fine. I think the latter.
Click to expand...

Makin' my way downtown going to the Woolworths for a shoppin' spree.

I don't think consumers much care what the big box store is named. They are all big box stores. All Walmart has going for it is force of habit. I think their reputation for selling subpar Chinese stuff opens the door for competitors. I don't think they are going anywhere soon, but they live and die by the financial health of the average consumer which isn't that great no matter what gas prices are doing. So I think walmart is going to be relatively flat.

I don't see in the long term where they really have room to grow. Internationally? Germany kicked their ass.
 
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Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Umm.... this is either getting really hairy or really stupid.

USD appears to be tanking, again.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,011
2,682
126
From 10/3/15:

FelixDeCat said:
Nasdaq will go back to 5000 on better than expected earnings this quarter but I suspect NFLX is going to crash.
Click to expand...

Nasdaq was 4707, NFLX was 106.11 on 10/3/15

....now its almost 4900, NFLX is around 101


...1 out of 2 is not bad :whiste:
 
sm625

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
FelixDeCat said:
From 10/3/15:



Nasdaq was 4707, NFLX was 106.11 on 10/3/15

....now its almost 4900, NFLX is around 101


...1 out of 2 is not bad :whiste:
Click to expand...


Well to be fair NFLX is looking pretty bad. I'd say stick a fork in it. It's chart is actually showing a classic 1987 crash pattern. And it has already lost 15% in 5 days, so that right there is already kind of crashy.
 
sm625

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
For those that are interested in the 20W/50W $SPX weekly death cross, it is almost confirmed. It is sitting right on the -1% marker indicating a long term sell signal.
MWSnap_2015_10_16_16_04_02.jpg


But the real key thing to note is that it will be at -1.1% next week even if the market rallies 4%! So I'd say that's pretty well confirmed. (Though I would wait until the end of next week to make my 401k move into cash equivalents.) If the market goes flat next week then it will be at -1.2%, so pretty much no matter what the market does, this indicator will flip next week. My own indicator is still long though so that is going to override this one for now.
 
Charmonium

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,544
3,540
136
sm625

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
Supposedly Oprah just made $60 million by buying a 10% stake in weight watchers (WTW). The funny thing is that it could be one hell of a lot more than that. Supposedly she got call options on 3.5 million more shares. There are a good many WTW calls that are up 2000% today. Whatever calls she got are probably deep in the money by now. And if she has 3.5 million shares worth of calls then that is 35k contracts. If they were $10 calls then they were probably valued at around $10-$15 tops per contract at the time the deal was made. And now they are worth $400 a pop! 35 thousand contracts at $400 a pop = $14 million. :eek: It could even be much more than that if the strike was lower than $10. Given that the stock averaged $6 over the last quarter, that is a good possibility.
 
S

s0me0nesmind1

Lifer
Nov 8, 2012
20,842
4,785
146
MustISO said:
All day breakfast, really stupid commercials and buttermilk chicken sandwich. Doesn't seem all that great to me but profits were up.
Click to expand...

I never understood why they stopped breakfast at a certain time....

Doesn't matter what time of day it is, it's still the same food in the freezer. But yeah, I also don't see how that turned them around and made more people go.
 
T

Train

Lifer
Jun 22, 2000
13,587
82
91
www.bing.com
s0me0nesmind1 said:
Then this sounds like a perfect opportunity: Buy High, Sell Low!
Click to expand...

Exactly. The problem is, even though today's earning were good, they probably weren't affected much by the all day breakfast idea, which just rolled out recently, IIRC.

The articles on reddit talked about how profits are being lost because now that they serve both menu's all day, they have to cook more stuff, and more gets thrown out. And there are a lot of logistical problems with the grills and warmers.

The other problem is that breakfast is cheaper, so if people opt for breakfast food, the per ticket revenue goes down.

Perhaps they will get over the growing pains and be OK with all day breakfast, but in the end, I just don't see it adding to their bottom line.
 
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