***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[Charmonium]

%10 drop is a carnage?

color me carnaged.

Well, I guess it depends on how much you lost. I didn't sell anything because I knew this would happen. I'm a little surprised it happened this quickly, but there was never any doubt that it would.

And for people who did sell during that down turn, i'm sure many lost a lot more than 10% - that's just the average over the entire index.

 

[Imp]

Aw, POT fell 2%, do I cashed out with a 1% gain... Go go gambling!

Sounds like the Fed minutes were "optimistic".

 

[theeedude]

Fed needs to normalize rates and get out of the way. Let the markets correct. Current situation of "investors" playing chicken with rate hike timing is not helping the economy.

 

[Imp]

Can't wait until Friday when the job numbers come out... USD going to fly one way or another.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Can't wait until Friday when the job numbers come out... USD going to fly one way or another.

....or stay the same, right?

Srsly, All this volatility seems to centralize at the end of the line it seems....

Part of me wants to move all my retirement assets out of stocks and into something stable, but it just keeps bouncing back and forth. Part of me doesn't want to make a move until we are near December...

 

[FelixDeCat]

I give up. I'm done trading until 2016. :|

 

[sm625]

My indicator has generated a sell signal. It wont be confirmed until tomorrow morning but I am definitely inching my way towards the door. Puts on IWM is how I'm playing this. I expect the signal to hold into tomorrow, and I expect tomorrow to be an up day and that is when I plan to take a major position.

2015-09-22      54.3 chg    9.2, score:   63.4 graph:   91.1 BUY
2015-09-23      61.9 chg    7.6, score:   69.5 graph:   98.1 BUY
2015-09-24      64.6 chg    2.7, score:   67.4 graph:  103.4 BUY
2015-09-25      52.1 chg  -12.5, score:   39.6 graph:  102.4 BUY
2015-09-28       4.0 chg  -48.1, score:  -44.1 graph:   86.3 (sell in 83.8 days)
2015-09-29       5.4 chg    1.4, score:    6.8 graph:   85.7 (sell in 83.0 days)
2015-09-30       2.1 chg   -3.3, score:   -1.2 graph:   84.1 (sell in 82.0 days)
2015-10-01      14.0 chg   11.9, score:   25.8 graph:   88.4 (sell in 82.1 days)
2015-10-02      25.1 chg   11.1, score:   36.2 graph:   92.9 BUY
2015-10-05      10.8 chg  -14.3, score:   -3.5 graph:   90.1 (sell in 88.2 days)
2015-10-06       7.6 chg   -3.1, score:    4.5 graph:   88.4 (sell in 87.4 days)
2015-10-07      -1.7 chg   -9.3, score:  -10.9 graph:   84.3 (sell in 86.0 days)
2015-10-08      -1.4 chg    0.2, score:   -1.2 graph:   83.8 (sell in 84.9 days)
2015-10-09      -1.7 chg   -0.2, score:   -1.9 graph:   83.3 (sell in 83.8 days)
2015-10-12      -6.2 chg   -4.5, score:  -10.7 graph:   81.1 (sell in 82.4 days)
2015-10-13     -10.6 chg   -4.4, score:  -15.0 graph:   78.7 (sell in 80.8 days)
2015-10-14     -14.9 chg   -4.3, score:  -19.2 graph:   76.3 (sell in 76.0 days)
2015-10-15      -4.3 chg   10.6, score:    6.3 graph:   78.7 (sell in 71.2 days)
2015-10-16      -5.0 chg   -0.7, score:   -5.7 graph:   76.5 (sell in 65.0 days)
2015-10-19      -2.2 chg    2.7, score:    0.5 graph:   75.1 (sell in 58.0 days)
2015-10-20      -9.5 chg   -7.3, score:  -16.9 graph:   69.4 (sell in 49.3 days)
2015-10-21     -23.2 chg  -13.6, score:  -36.8 graph:   60.5 (sell in 38.8 days)
2015-10-22       1.5 chg   24.7, score:   26.2 graph:   66.1 (sell in 38.9 days)
2015-10-23      12.0 chg   10.5, score:   22.5 graph:   70.4 (sell in 38.8 days)
2015-10-26     -21.2 chg  -33.2, score:  -54.4 graph:   57.1 (sell in 35.5 days)
2015-10-27     -39.7 chg  -18.5, score:  -58.1 graph:   48.4 (sell in 32.1 days)
2015-10-28     -10.2 chg   29.5, score:   19.3 graph:   58.8 (sell in 31.9 days)
2015-10-29     -10.2 chg   -0.0, score:  -10.3 graph:   58.7 (sell in 30.5 days)
2015-10-30     -13.7 chg   -3.5, score:  -17.2 graph:   56.7 (sell in 28.8 days)
2015-11-02      -7.5 chg    6.2, score:   -1.3 graph:   58.5 (sell in 24.7 days)
2015-11-03      -5.2 chg    2.3, score:   -2.8 graph:   57.8 (sell in 19.6 days)
2015-11-04     -45.6 chg  -40.4, score:  -85.9 graph:   39.6 (sell in 10.0 days)
2015-11-05     -86.2 chg  -40.7, score: -126.9 graph:   19.5 SELL

 

[SketchMaster]

....or stay the same, right?

Srsly, All this volatility seems to centralize at the end of the line it seems....

Part of me wants to move all my retirement assets out of stocks and into something stable, but it just keeps bouncing back and forth. Part of me doesn't want to make a move until we are near December...

How soon are you retiring?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

How soon are you retiring?

I'm in my late twenties.... so I'll be retiring tomorrow. In my wishful thinking world.


So not for another 20+ years =[

 

[SketchMaster]

I'm in my late twenties.... so I'll be retiring tomorrow. In my wishful thinking world.


So not for another 20+ years =[

I'm 30 and remember my Mother would call me every week during the 2008 crisis telling me I should pull all of my money out of my 401k and put it in cans in the back yard (no, not joking). Best advice I ever ignored. Kept investing into my 401k and it grew like a champ over the years.

Leave your retirement alone. The world isn't ending, and you have more than enough time to recover from any nonsense.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I'm 30 and remember my Mother would call me every week during the 2008 crisis telling me I should pull all of my money out of my 401k and put it in cans in the back yard (no, not joking). Best advice I ever ignored. Kept investing into my 401k and it grew like a champ over the years.

Leave your retirement alone. The world isn't ending, and you have more than enough time to recover from any nonsense.

...You're missing the point brah.

The point is simply to sell high, buy low. It can be applied to your retirement funds just like individual stocks.

If you transition your VOLATILE stock assets into something LESS VOLATILE (Money Market, liquid cash account, gold, what-have you....), then you cut the possible losses, and can safely transition back to stocks when things settle-down (or reach their lows). Obviously, it's market timing which is easier said than done.

It's not about going crazy thinking all my money is gone forever, it's a possible opportunity to learn to take the knife out before it gets too deep, then re-buy once the losses have been accounted for.

 

[overst33r]

...You're missing the point brah.

The point is simply to sell high, buy low. It can be applied to your retirement funds just like individual stocks.

If you transition your VOLATILE stock assets into something LESS VOLATILE (Money Market, liquid cash account, gold, what-have you....), then you cut the possible losses, and can safely transition back to stocks when things settle-down (or reach their lows). Obviously, it's market timing which is easier said than done.

It's not about going crazy thinking all my money is gone forever, it's a possible opportunity to learn to take the knife out before it gets too deep, then re-buy once the losses have been accounted for.

...so you can time the market? Remember, you have to be right twice. That's an awful big gamble with your retirement savings.

Edit: I don't think he missed the point.

 

[Imp]

I'm 30 and remember my Mother would call me every week during the 2008 crisis telling me I should pull all of my money out of my 401k and put it in cans in the back yard (no, not joking). Best advice I ever ignored. Kept investing into my 401k and it grew like a champ over the years.

Leave your retirement alone. The world isn't ending, and you have more than enough time to recover from any nonsense.

My mom thinks I'm an idiot for saying renting is perfectly acceptable and not "paying someone else's mortgage." No calculations required, renting == stupid, no conditions. She thinks buying a house now in Canada, one of the biggest bubbles worldwide, is a good idea.

Lesson for me: Don't listen to idiot family members about finances.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

...so you can time the market? Remember, you have to be right twice. That's an awful big gamble with your retirement savings.

Edit: I don't think he missed the point.

No, but you can anticipate the market.

Anyone here can anticipate that there will be a major correction following the moment the Fed announces rate hikes. The question is when will they announce it? Something tells me within the next 2 months it will occur. Is that far fetched?

Anticipating the bottom, while challenging, isn't that difficult either. But either way - if the market drops 20% and you rebuy and then drops another 10%, you're still better off than simply sitting on your assets and losing 30%. Or am I just going crazy here?

 

[holden j caufield]

Don't you pay less on your gains if you stayed vs getting in and out. Though if you think impeding doom is coming it's better to pay that % get out and get more shares a little later on.

 

[overst33r]

No, but you can anticipate the market.

Anyone here can anticipate that there will be a major correction following the moment the Fed announces rate hikes. The question is when will they announce it? Something tells me within the next 2 months it will occur. Is that far fetched?

Anticipating the bottom, while challenging, isn't that difficult either. But either way - if the market drops 20% and you rebuy and then drops another 10%, you're still better off than simply sitting on your assets and losing 30%. Or am I just going crazy here?

You don't have to anticipate (market timing), just rebalance. If your asset allocation drifts by ~ 5%, sell high and buy low. Rinse and repeat.

All this is assuming you own the market and you follow the philosophy of buy and hold. If not, you may be successful for a while, but the odds are against you. You will most certainly under-perform as time goes on. You would have been better buying and holding (not saying you're not doing this, just an example).

 

[Imp]

You don't have to anticipate (market timing), just rebalance. If your asset allocation drifts by ~ 5%, sell high and buy low. Rinse and repeat.

All this is assuming you own the market and you follow the philosophy of buy and hold. If not, you may be successful for a while, but the odds are against you. You will most certainly under-perform as time goes on. You would have been better buying and holding (not saying you're not doing this, just an example).

Back in 2010 or 2011, I owned Apple when it was $300 pre-split. I also owned Google when it was $500 -- not sure if it split since. Had MSFT at $27, SU at $24, and Visa at $70. Didn't have them all at once because I kept selling them within a few weeks of buying. I averaged like +3%/year between 2010 and 2013. Would have gained 50% just by holding SPY when the DOW was like 11k or 12k -- yes, I know they're different indices. Instead, I got barely 10% in the same time period.

Been doing well this year and last because I've focused on buying and holding. Things should be good unless we have another market crash...

 

[us3rnotfound]

Back in 2010 or 2011, I owned Apple when it was $300 pre-split. I also owned Google when it was $500 -- not sure if it split since. Had MSFT at $27, SU at $24, and Visa at $70. Didn't have them all at once because I kept selling them within a few weeks of buying. I averaged like +3%/year between 2010 and 2013. Would have gained 50% just by holding SPY when the DOW was like 11k or 12k -- yes, I know they're different indices. Instead, I got barely 10% in the same time period.

Been doing well this year and last because I've focused on buying and holding. Things should be good unless we have another market crash...

The irony in my mind is this: the first you described, where you actively managed your equities, is more or less how the market works (what makes it tick); it's a bunch of active traders trying to time the market, shifting their assets around, searching for that value investment, right, or shorties preying on the bubbles? Algorithms built by smart engineers, backed up by robust software that snipes fractions of a penny many times a minute. Pure profit.

So, we're all outsiders to the stock market? How do you become that insider who drives a 7-series BMW and vacations in the Hamptons twice a year? That's the paradox, we can instantly see these volatile stocks that boom or bust, but we cannot do anything about it, lest we risk it big, but that's pretty much breaking the money-loving covenant that traditional economic axioms require, by throwing away your future money supply for a short-term gamble.

 

[Imp]

So, we're all outsiders to the stock market? How do you become that insider who drives a 7-series BMW and vacations in the Hamptons twice a year? That's the paradox, we can instantly see these volatile stocks that boom or bust, but we cannot do anything about it, lest we risk it big, but that's pretty much breaking the money-loving covenant that traditional economic axioms require, by throwing away your future money supply for a short-term gamble.

Ask to be reincarnated into a person born into wealth and connections... Manage a billion dollar fund where 1% equates to $10 million. Dump it into SPY, collect the 2-3% dividend, give yourself a salary of 0.25% of total assets per year regardless of performance, and give it some bullshit name like "performance fund."

 

[FelixDeCat]

QQQ close 113.99 Friday

 

[Imp]

Job numbers in the morning... my money's on crappy numbers and a downward revision for the last few months then the market will rally! Bad economy = good news for stocks for some reason.

 

[Train]

Bad economy = good news for stocks for some reason.

Because it signals no rate hike.

 

[Imp]

Because it signals no rate hike.

Yep, and no rate hike means potentially more QE, forever cheap borrowing for people to buy more stocks and inflate values... No one's worried that regular people have less money to buy useless shit and companies might do worse -- oh wait, can the poor people just bump up their credit limits and buy more useless shit? That's what everyone in Canada's doing so of course they can -- debt to income at 1.63 or so.

 

[sm625]

I give up. I'm done trading until 2016. :|

QQQ close 113.99 Friday

I thought you said you were done. lol. Why set price targets if you are done?

 

[Train]

My mom thinks I'm an idiot for saying renting is perfectly acceptable and not "paying someone else's mortgage." No calculations required, renting == stupid, no conditions. She thinks buying a house now in Canada, one of the biggest bubbles worldwide, is a good idea.

Lesson for me: Don't listen to idiot family members about finances.

I've stated in the credit card threads that pop up every now and again: "hard rules of thumb are for idiots"

Somebody always repeats the line that someone pounded into them "Never, EVER use credit cards!" and the others: "Never rent!, never lease!"

Sure, stick to those rules.. if you're an idiot. The rest of us can leverage basic finance to improve our lives.