***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[s0me0nesmind1]

HORRY SHEEEIT! Jobs up 271,000 vs. 181,000 expected.

Unemployment drops to 5.0%. Hello rate hike. How you doin'?

 

[Udgnim]

HORRY SHEEEIT! Jobs up 271,000 vs. 181,000 expected.

Unemployment drops to 5.0%. Hello rate hike. How you doin'?

need Chinese stock market to go crashing back down again so the market irrationally panics and scares the Fed

 

[Train]

Well at least my bank stock is up. Again, glad I diversified across a handful of major sectors.

EDIT: still looking to buy a pharm stock though, but I feel like I need some more research. Kinda kicking myself for not jumping on one after they all dipped last month.

 

[brianmanahan]

US REITs down %3, probably because rates are expected to rise

 

[Udgnim]

Well at least my bank stock is up. Again, glad I diversified across a handful of major sectors.

EDIT: still looking to buy a pharm stock though, but I feel like I need some more research. Kinda kicking myself for not jumping on one after they all dipped last month.

I hear VRX is getting a lot of attention nowadays

 

[SketchMaster]

Christmas came early for NVDA. Had solid earnings this Q, and plans on making shareholders very happy moving forward.

Glad I've hung onto that investment. :thumbsup:

 

[sm625]

Change of plans. I'm not shorting anything yet. It is still too early.

 

[Imp]

CAD is down relative to USD...

For fuqs sake, they better finally raise it now. The first hike is like 0.40% from 0-0.25%, give me a break, it's practically nothing but OMFGBBQ, world gun n end, yo.

With my luck, December job numbers suck and no hike.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

US REITs down %3, probably because rates are expected to rise

Ahhh fuck, and here I wanted to get my next house with a low interest rate while the getting is good. Ahhh well, at least I have my current home at a fucking low ass 2.75%


As if not enough millennials weren't buying houses... now they definitely aren't if rates go back up

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

CAD is down relative to USD...

For fuqs sake, they better finally raise it now. The first hike is like 0.40% from 0-0.25%, give me a break, it's practically nothing but OMFGBBQ, world gun n end, yo.

With my luck, December job numbers suck and no hike.

There isn't a question that they will hike rates in December. Not a SINGLE question. They were going to likely raise rates as long as we reported ~120k jobs, let alone the expected 180k, we somehow shit out 280k.

Unless a huge economic collapse occurs, the jobs could be complete shit and they will still raise rates. With 5.0% unemployment, it's EXPECTED for job reports to go down as far being this good.

 

[Imp]

There isn't a question that they will hike rates in December. Not a SINGLE question. They were going to likely raise rates as long as we reported ~120k jobs, let alone the expected 180k, we somehow shit out 280k.

Unless a huge economic collapse occurs, the jobs could be complete shit and they will still raise rates. With 5.0% unemployment, it's EXPECTED for job reports to go down as far being this good.

With Christmas/holiday hiring, jobs shouldn't get any worse until January -- not sure how well they're corrected for seasonal stuff because Canada posted a gain of 44k jobs with 30k of them being election workers for a federal election last month.

 

[brianmanahan]

As if not enough millennials weren't buying houses... now they definitely aren't if rates go back up

real estate prices should drop if rates go up though

honestly i almost have enough money saved up to just buy a house outright, so i'd be happier with sizable interest rate increases if it means house prices go down

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

real estate prices should drop if rates go up though

honestly i almost have enough money saved up to just buy a house outright, so i'd be happier with sizable interest rate increases if it means house prices go down

That's a myth. Home prices never go down unless we have a bubble burst

Yeah, I don't know, I think real estate prices are disproportionately based on where they are. Why a complete shit home is worth $1,000,000 in CA, but the equivalent is $100,000 in Texas is beyond me.

Fuck that inflated mess state. I'll stay where real estate is within reason. We're at least safely building equity in a nice cheap cookie cutter home. It's not my ideal living space, but it's better than an apartment - and knowing how many people are in the mid/lower tiers of the economy I'd bet it's a dream home for them.

 

[us3rnotfound]

real estate prices should drop if rates go up though

honestly i almost have enough money saved up to just buy a house outright, so i'd be happier with sizable interest rate increases if it means house prices go down

Just cash in an online banking institution with ~.75-1.1% APY? If so you should also be glad since that rate should go up too this December if the rate hike happens.

 

[Imp]

That's a myth. Home prices never go down unless we have a bubble burst

Yeah, I don't know, I think real estate prices are disproportionately based on where they are. Why a complete shit home is worth $1,000,000 in CA, but the equivalent is $100,000 in Texas is beyond me.

Word's starting to go around that los Estados Unidos might be in a bubble again. Maybe the rate hike will burst the bubble...

Hike will be interesting to watch in Canada. Let's see if prices in Vancouver and Toronto will keep going up 10%/year without free money.

 

[jpiniero]

There isn't a question that they will hike rates in December. Not a SINGLE question. They were going to likely raise rates as long as we reported ~120k jobs, let alone the expected 180k, we somehow shit out 280k.

They will find an excuse.

Why a complete shit home is worth $1,000,000 in CA, but the equivalent is $100,000 in Texas is beyond me.

Prop 13.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Word's starting to go around that los Estados Unidos might be in a bubble again. Maybe the rate hike will burst the bubble...

Hike will be interesting to watch in Canada. Let's see if prices in Vancouver and Toronto will keep going up 10%/year without free money.

I've been pretty much telling myself that in my head this entire time.

What I'm actually shocked at is..... after the jobs report... the market seemed to be somewhat stable! I'm surprised we didn't have massive volatility given the extreme news.

I'm still contemplating putting my 401k assets in something safe before we have another correction :hmm:

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Just cash in an online banking institution with ~.75-1.1% APY? If so you should also be glad since that rate should go up too this December if the rate hike happens.

I just moved all my assets to Discover Bank... they better keep their damn rate competition up

 

[brianmanahan]

Just cash in an online banking institution with ~.75-1.1% APY? If so you should also be glad since that rate should go up too this December if the rate hike happens.

nah, like half i-bonds and half VTSAX/VTIAX

 

[JEDI]

Prop 13.

what that?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

what that?

Briefly read over it. Was a prop that was passed ~1978 that basically... demanded lower property tax rates and made restrictions on how much/when they can raise them?

Either way, somehow that correlates to more expensive housing. Not quite sure how that correlates personally, but whatevs yo. Lower tax rate might incentivise, but it's not going to instantly make more people migrate there and drive up housing prices. That's typically the result of high demand.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I thought you said you were done. lol. Why set price targets if you are done?

Its kind of like watching sports and betting on sports. Just because I don't bet on sports doesn't mean I still don't watch and make predictions.

Even though the QQQs closed up .08, it did go under my $113.99 call on Friday after the jobs number came out.

I was reading a story that volume has been pretty anemic lately. I think most people realize its better to just buy and hold than trade heavily.

But its still fun to predict. :sneaky:

 

[Train]

I think most people realize its better to just buy and hold then trade heavily.

One of those times when proper use of then/than is important.

 

[jpiniero]

Briefly read over it. Was a prop that was passed ~1978 that basically... demanded lower property tax rates and made restrictions on how much/when they can raise them?

Either way, somehow that correlates to more expensive housing. Not quite sure how that correlates personally, but whatevs yo. Lower tax rate might incentivise, but it's not going to instantly make more people migrate there and drive up housing prices. That's typically the result of high demand.

Basically people buy up real estate and just hold on to it. Some rent it out but many don't since that has risks of its own. The effect is that it causes the supply to be constrained because in a normal market the PT increases would make doing buy+hold unfeasible.

Also NIMBYs who won't allow building up and terrible traffic meaning you need to live very close to have any kind of realistic commute unless you leave at the buttcrack.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Lower close on Monday.