Michael Smerconish had argued recently that we need to "look deeper" into Trump's words and actions, implying that there is some hidden agenda or strategy behind what seems otherwise to be myopic, paranoid and outrageous behaviors of a man living in a narcissist reality-bubble.
Consider that Susan Sarandon, who supported Trump publicly, has made it clear that her own purpose in doing so showed a complete divorce from Trump's whacky base: she wanted to see the progressive movement energized by falling under the shadow of a Trump presidency. I have to take her at her word.
Trump, on the other hand, seems like someone who never did his own taxes, relying on others. He doesn't pay attention to statistics, so he's not a "card-counting" businessman, but an "all-in" gambler whose only strongpoint is the "art of the bluff." When he bluffs, his behavior suggests that at least some of the time -- he believes the reality he's trying to convey.
So if you look at the scatter of points and connections in a search-tree of relevant events, it begins early with the two school-terror hoaxes of 2015-2016, targeting the two biggest Democratic voter "blue" strongholds in the United States, each within 50 miles of a major terror ground-zero. They occurred within 32 hours before a major GOP debate and Dem Town-Hall in New Hampshire, the pattern consistent with a variant of the old "Reichstag Fire" campaign. The FBI later announces that they traced the IP address back to eastern Germany -- a part of the world known for its intelligence activity and intrigue, and the early career post for another Believer in the Roman Empire Paradigm, Vladimir Putin.
So you can flesh out all of these facts, and try to enumerate the various possible causes.
When you superimpose the statements and observable behaviors of Trump and Obama respectively, Obama only looks like the president whose forethought and wisdom prevented him from going public about the Russian dimension just to avoid the appearance of interfering in the election himself. Trump, the bluffer, appears to be making mistakes in all that bluffing, because his "tells" are completely consistent with inferences about all those news-event points and their possible causes and connections which merely increases the probability that Trump has somehow colluded with the Russians, thinks he has so colluded, can't completely remember how any collusion took place, and only wants to muddy the issue with outlandish accusations.
He has bluffed his way into a logical impossibility -- that Obama illegally surveilled his communications during the election for purely partisan reasons.
If there had been any "tell" by Obama, the only one I imagined was Bob DeNiro's Medal of Freedom Award last October. Interpreting that as somehow deliberate makes the O-man look so subtle and cool that it is "off the map" and under the radar.
Obama was forced to gamble on the chances of Hillary's win versus the ability of the system to protect us from an executive like Trump. He would be counting on the numbers, while Hillary failed her campaign in states guaranteeing electoral victory. He would be thinking about various criminal statutes, like "misprision of a felony," which are only possibilities in the sieve driven by the observable events. Obama doesn't know everything that Trump is doing; Trump doesn't even know what is likely or almost impossible in Obama's actions, timing or statements.
Trump isn't behaving like an executive -- you can say that in many different tones. He is losing emotional control to such an extent, that his own bluffs are coming back to haunt him.