Assuming 10-15% of the population is already immune, what is the probability that they will remain immune by the time vaccines are deployed?
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
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OK, yeah. I'm worried about that, as it would obviously put far more strain on vaccine supply.
Also, we don't have much data on people who get this a second time. It still seems possible that the lethality of covid could go up in individuals who get it a second time.
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
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Unsure of the context but Fauci is saying somewhere public availability of the vaccine likely sometime in April. I presume this means on demand vaccination for for the general public.
CDC planning indicates that some 100M people would probably receive the vaccine before we reach that point.
Edit: Oh I see it's a CBS interview. He also says fewer than 100M doses available by EOY. This seems reaonsable. CDC was saying max 45M doses by EOY but that was a number of weeks ago. Manufacturing could be moving somewhat more quickly than previously anticipated.
CDC planning indicates that some 100M people would probably receive the vaccine before we reach that point.
Edit: Oh I see it's a CBS interview. He also says fewer than 100M doses available by EOY. This seems reaonsable. CDC was saying max 45M doses by EOY but that was a number of weeks ago. Manufacturing could be moving somewhat more quickly than previously anticipated.
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CZroe
Lifer
- Jun 24, 2001
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I took another of Georgia's free COVID-19 tests last week. I literally made the appointment just before driving over there 10 minutes away, so anyone who wants to be tested can be... without delay in this case. Anyone who thinks there is still a lack of availability for testing in the USA is kidding themselves.
This time they had me test myself with a new test that doesn't involve plunging the swab to the back of your sinuses. You insert the swab a half-inch into your nostril, swirl it twice, hold against the inside of your nostril for 15 seconds, then repeat with the other nostril. You are supposed to put the swab into a vial, break the swab stem off at the notched shear line, then cap the remaining swab in the vial... only my swab didn't have a notch.
The person demonstrating for me, the printed instructions they handed me, and the sign posted right next to me in the car all mentioned this notch/shear line on the swab. The person explaining it did so with rehearsed precision... "Have you been tested before?" "Have you self-tested before?" "OK, this is what you do..." etc. The only other issue I had was that I held the swab for 15 seconds in a spot that triggered sneezing, so I had to stifle 5x sneezes while counting the seconds and always feeling like I might stab myself with the swab on the next sneeze.
When I told them you could get same-day appointments with next-day results my brother and mother went later the same day. Strangely, they say they didn't receive any instructions for testing. That's weird considering that I was being beat over the head with instructions... spoken, demonstrated, displayed to me on a clipboard, given to me on a printout, and posted on a giant display next to my car. I mean, it's not like they picked up the giant display that you park next to and ran off with it.
Though it was the first time they promised results in 24 hours it was also the first time it took more than 24 hours... barely. Though he took his hours after me, I got my results emailed about an hour after my brother... around 26 hours after I was tested. It was within 24 hours for my mother and brother but for some it really is next-day results and not quite 24-hour results.
This time they had me test myself with a new test that doesn't involve plunging the swab to the back of your sinuses. You insert the swab a half-inch into your nostril, swirl it twice, hold against the inside of your nostril for 15 seconds, then repeat with the other nostril. You are supposed to put the swab into a vial, break the swab stem off at the notched shear line, then cap the remaining swab in the vial... only my swab didn't have a notch.
The person demonstrating for me, the printed instructions they handed me, and the sign posted right next to me in the car all mentioned this notch/shear line on the swab. The person explaining it did so with rehearsed precision... "Have you been tested before?" "Have you self-tested before?" "OK, this is what you do..." etc. The only other issue I had was that I held the swab for 15 seconds in a spot that triggered sneezing, so I had to stifle 5x sneezes while counting the seconds and always feeling like I might stab myself with the swab on the next sneeze.
When I told them you could get same-day appointments with next-day results my brother and mother went later the same day. Strangely, they say they didn't receive any instructions for testing. That's weird considering that I was being beat over the head with instructions... spoken, demonstrated, displayed to me on a clipboard, given to me on a printout, and posted on a giant display next to my car. I mean, it's not like they picked up the giant display that you park next to and ran off with it.
Though it was the first time they promised results in 24 hours it was also the first time it took more than 24 hours... barely. Though he took his hours after me, I got my results emailed about an hour after my brother... around 26 hours after I was tested. It was within 24 hours for my mother and brother but for some it really is next-day results and not quite 24-hour results.
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
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Pfizer will seek EUA mid-November assuming vaccine is effective (which seems likely). They could still have publishable results this month depending how things go. The slight delay should not make a huge practical difference as relatively few doses are expected to be available until the end of November.
Brainonska511
Lifer
- Dec 10, 2005
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It's not surprising their timeline has been pushed. Having a database lock of the trial data after X number of events reached in mid- to late-October isn't enough. The data needs to be analyzed by biostatisticians and packaged for the FDA - not something that can be done in just a week or two.
Mai72
Lifer
- Sep 12, 2012
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Dr. Osterholm says that we are in the 3rd of a 9th inning baseball game. He's predicting a very bad bad COVID19 winter. A possible vaccine won't be available for months.
It's a very good interview. Expect to see American cities on fire with COVID19. No weddings. No funerals. No bars/restaurants. No holiday gatherings. I still think lockdowns are on the way. The virus isn't going away. It's going to be with us for A VERY LOOOONG TIME. Lets get used to this, and we should be realistic. Wishful thinking isn't going to kill off the virus.
It's a very good interview. Expect to see American cities on fire with COVID19. No weddings. No funerals. No bars/restaurants. No holiday gatherings. I still think lockdowns are on the way. The virus isn't going away. It's going to be with us for A VERY LOOOONG TIME. Lets get used to this, and we should be realistic. Wishful thinking isn't going to kill off the virus.
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local
Golden Member
- Jun 28, 2011
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I think cases will increase, severely in some areas, but less severely in areas that have already had an outbreak. Then cases will start to fade as the most vulnerable and highest risk takers are exposed and recover, or not. The same pattern has repeated over and over. In many areas we are seeing new outbreaks where they have not really had one yet. In other areas we are seeing the second wave of removed restrictions and lockdown fatigue bringing new people into the covid pool.
I have been consistently disappointed in the lack of apocalyptic pandemic plaguery and have adjusted my expectations as such. I expect, without any new restrictions, cases will begin falling again before December.
I have been consistently disappointed in the lack of apocalyptic pandemic plaguery and have adjusted my expectations as such. I expect, without any new restrictions, cases will begin falling again before December.
Availability might not be the problem, it's the potential cost, here anyway. Insurance doesn't always cover the cost. There is no "free" testing.
Apparently with the insurance we have thru work the cost is only covered if ordered by your doctor. If not it's $200. We'll see how this is in reality as one of my co-workers got tested. He had to pay the co-pay($50) & is expecting to get billed for the rest of it. I'll keep asking him if he does end up getting billed.
Even if the PA Health Dept. tells you to quarantine because of possible exposure they won't test you unless you show symptoms. That just happened with 2 of my co-workers.
K1052
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What we really need are just asstons of cheap antigen tests that you can take a few times a week at home then if you pop positive get a PCR test turned in under 24 hours.
CZroe
Lifer
- Jun 24, 2001
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To get visibility up and positivity rates down, many states offer free testing... including mine (Georgia). Right after posting that I checked and saw that I could schedule an appointment to be tested in as little as 5 minutes. That's about how long the drive would take so I picked a slot 10 minutes later and drove on over there. This time I got my results the same day. Again: My test was totally free.
When I got to work I found that one of the managers had a fever and had left for the day. He was currently being tested. When my coworker (the manager's direct employee) mentioned this I told him I had just been tested before work too because it was free, not because I had symptoms or known-exposure. He had a lot of questions and I told him all about how you could get it for free. He went across the road and got his during his lunch break. Even got the results in 15 minutes, since he used his insurance to get a faster test at an urgent care clinic. He paid nothing out of pocket.
In the past it seems that my other co-workers have also been using their insurance to get testing because they want a more comfortable test that doesn't involve plunging the swab all the way to the back of the sinuses and twirling it around. Glad the free test is more comfortable test now, but the coworker from yesterday still didn't take advantage of it... probably because I had just told him my results from last week were next-day and he was concerned about his interaction with the feverish manager. I didn't know yet that I would get my results the same day too.
If you mean that no test is free because we, as taxpayers, still have to pay for it... sure, but that comment was about how the US compares to other countries. The ultimate cost and the fact that "someone has to pay for it" would be the same for testing in any other country.
CZroe
Lifer
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ultimatebob
Lifer
- Jul 1, 2001
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My wife and daughter recently got a COVID test in Connecticut (thankfully negative), and it was completely free.
Do they seriously charge for these tests in other states? That sounds pennywise and pound foolish, as you don't want someone in retail or food service spreading this thing to dozens of people because they couldn't afford $50 for a test.
Do they seriously charge for these tests in other states? That sounds pennywise and pound foolish, as you don't want someone in retail or food service spreading this thing to dozens of people because they couldn't afford $50 for a test.
ultimatebob
Lifer
- Jul 1, 2001
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I'm curious how bad it would have to get for states to send us back into a lockdown. I would expect violent pushback on this if they tried. If the government tries to "cancel" Christmas, you're going to see riots in the streets again.
CZroe
Lifer
- Jun 24, 2001
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PA has no-cost testing:
COVID-19 and Your Health
Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.
www.hhs.gov
Also, if this page is relevant to the free testing (I see nothing about cost), PA does not require you to show symptoms:
Unfortunately the nearest of those 2 sites are close to a 4 hr drive for me.PA has no-cost testing:
Also, if this page is relevant to the free testing (I see nothing about cost), PA does not require you to show symptoms:
I'll check out the HHS site you posted to see if there is some other info available there.
ultimatebob
Lifer
- Jul 1, 2001
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Wow, they only have 2 public testing sites in a state that is almost 300 miles wide and has almost 13 million people. That's really sad.
At a minimum, they should have public testing sites in:
Erie
State College (Penn State University in particular)
Pittsburgh
Scranton
Harrisburg
Williamsport
Allentown
and Philadelphia
That way, you have a testing center within 100 miles of everyone, and near all the major population centers.
destrekor
Lifer
- Nov 18, 2005
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Yeah, the Federal program may be of more assistance, looks like they partner with the major pharmacy/stores like CVS, Rite Aid, and Walgreens. Not every one of those, mind, but for instance you can find a list of Rite Aids in PA (or any state) here: https://www.riteaid.com/pharmacy/services/covid-19-testing They specifically have a pre-screening that appears to be required to set an appointment.
What else is required and any other gotchas or fine-print, I haven't a clue. I haven't gone through with any testing myself so I can't offer any anecdotes/experiences.
Locally, within 20 miles of where i live, there are 2 places that will accept the general public. An UrgentCare type place & a Walmart. Walmart uses Quest & the other LabCorp.
From their websites:
Sweet, more info from Quest:
There is one other place to get tested here, thru the hospital, but you must have a doctor order. It says right on their website tests are $199. It's had that price since spring.
I guess what i need to do to really find out is get a hold of my insurance & see what is actually covered, how many times a person can get tested & be covered, is a doctor order required to be covered, what/who is in-network & who's not, etc.
Let me say this again, 2 co-workers were told by the health dept.(PA and/or County) to quarantine & they would not be tested unless the people they came in contact with got their tests results back as positive.
If there's an abundance of tests that seems counter productive.
From their websites:
So i guess you need a doctor order for this. Insurance may or may not pay?
Sweet, more info from Quest:
The MedExpress site says you have to pay the co-pay at least. Insurance may or may not pay?
There is one other place to get tested here, thru the hospital, but you must have a doctor order. It says right on their website tests are $199. It's had that price since spring.
I guess what i need to do to really find out is get a hold of my insurance & see what is actually covered, how many times a person can get tested & be covered, is a doctor order required to be covered, what/who is in-network & who's not, etc.
Let me say this again, 2 co-workers were told by the health dept.(PA and/or County) to quarantine & they would not be tested unless the people they came in contact with got their tests results back as positive.
If there's an abundance of tests that seems counter productive.
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K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
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Since the holidays are coming up discussion about what to do for them is happening. We've decided keep staying put and not see any family. We are going to do an indoor Thanksgiving dinner with a couple local friends at our place but we're all going to do at home COVID tests a couple days ahead of time.
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