NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[pmv]

To skirt the political side of things...a sitting person in power is mad at Sesame Street for promoting vaccinations when, as of today, 757,000 Americans have died from the disease in less than 2 years? And over 5 million people have died worldwide?

Big Bird got 'vaccinated' against COVID-19, drawing outrage from Republicans

Big Bird, who is technically 6 years old, got his COVID-19 vaccine over the weekend. His announcement did not sit well with conservatives like Sen. Ted Cruz, who called it "government propaganda."

www.npr.org

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It's worse than that. True global death figures are considered to be somewhere between 10 and 20 million. Even the US death numbers are probably undercounted, India has quite possibly undercounted deaths by a factor of 10.

Still, though, that's still less than the 1918 flu, which I understand is reckoned to have killed 50 million globally, at a time when population was much lower.

 

[Brainonska511]

Still, though, that's still less than the 1918 flu, which I understand is reckoned to have killed 50 million globally, at a time when population was much lower.

Is that really a useful comparison though? 1918 isn't exactly known for being at the height of medical care.

 

[Captante]

It's worse than that. True global death figures are considered to be somewhere between 10 and 20 million. Even the US death numbers are probably undercounted, India has quite possibly undercounted deaths by a factor of 10.

Still, though, that's still less than the 1918 flu, which I understand is reckoned to have killed 50 million globally, at a time when population was much lower.

How about the 1918 flu vs Covid-19 with 2020-21 medical technology factored into the equation?

Would a readily available flu vaccine have stopped it in its tracks here despite half the US population (at least!) being "ignint-Mcnuggets" ??

Frank (among others) DID warn us!

Note the above isn't directed at you or (mostly) anyone here.... more at those who wouldn't know what to do at a library.

Serious question too. In the past I've seen estimates for the Vietnam war fatality numbers with med-tech we had during the Gulf war taken into account but nothing on this specific aspect of the pandemic.

 

[Kaido]

Is that really a useful comparison though? 1918 isn't exactly known for being at the height of medical care.

Yeah, but if you refuse to take a cure when offered, does it matter at that point?

 

[Captante]

Was there a time when stupidity wasn't pervasive in the South? Most of the smart ones leave. It's a brain drain. The difference now is that social media lets us see it a lot easier.

"According to the U.S. Department of Education, 54% of U.S. adults 16-74 years old - about 130 million people - lack proficiency in literacy, reading below the equivalent of a sixth-grade level."

~ Ripped from Forbes.com

I suspect the above is a bit on the optimistic side too.

THIS is the veritable "crux of the biscuit" ** for US democracy and there's no quick/easy fix I can see.

** Zappa reference intentional **

 

[PingSpike]

Well that makes me not look forward to the booster. The second shot for me was bad, I felt literally on fire and work up at least 5 times in the night.

Totally knocked me out the next day and just sat on the couch like a stoner lol.

I basically just slept an entire day for the second shot and was completely useless. I actually worked (from home) most of the day this time, minus a short nap.

The chills sucked but I wasn't completely useless or anything this time.

 

[nakedfrog]

It's worse than that. True global death figures are considered to be somewhere between 10 and 20 million. Even the US death numbers are probably undercounted, India has quite possibly undercounted deaths by a factor of 10.

Still, though, that's still less than the 1918 flu, which I understand is reckoned to have killed 50 million globally, at a time when population was much lower.

And does that account for deaths that wouldn't have occurred if Covid-19 patients hadn't been in the way of people getting non-Covid related care?

 

[Captante]

And does that account for deaths that wouldn't have occurred if Covid-19 patients hadn't been in the way of people getting non-Covid related care?

If we go that way the problem is where do you draw the line?

You would also need to factor in all the things that could kill you if just you got sick and went to the hospital in 1918 just for one example and I could go on and on....

Its impossible to be 100% accurate with death-stats especially from over 100 years ago even if we choose the simple route and only count those who directly passed from the malady in question.

 

[Captante]

I basically just slept an entire day for the second shot and was completely useless. I actually worked (from home) most of the day this time, minus a short nap.

The chills sucked but I wasn't completely useless or anything this time.

YMMV .... and widely!

I had by far the worst reaction to shot #1 which made me feel like total crap for several days and dead-tired with little appetite for a week-10 days. Also I had a sore arm for the same time-period.

Shot #2 however did almost nothing.... just felt tired and had swollen glands.

The booster was in between with similar crappy feeling/chills and fatigue but around 72 hours they were mostly cleared up... still a bit worn out even today though. (got booster-vaccine Friday eve)

 

[Zorba]

If we go that way the problem is where do you draw the line?

You would also need to factor in all the things that could kill you if just you got sick and went to the hospital in 1918 just for one example and I could go on and on....

Its impossible to be 100% accurate with death-stats especially from over 100 years ago even if we choose the simple route and only count those who directly passed from the malady in question.

Excess death is the best way, probably not great numbers on that from 1918 either, though, and you'd have to account for the war too.

 

[Muse]

Oh I agree with him. But if you publicly came out against the mandates, the media would probally call you an anti-vaxxer. Esp in a Dem stronghold. That's how the mandates are going to end. Not vax rates or case counts. Gotta convince the Dems it's bad for them politically.

Dude, wake up. Mandates will disappear not when dems get nervous about their floor falling but when case rates, hospitalization, deaths, what have you fall enough to warrant them disappearing. Witness Marin County and some other areas in CA now where you don't have to mask up as of a few days ago. They have extremely high compliance for vax and very few recalcitrant residents in terms of OMG, don't tread on me BS. They've earned their high fives.

Zin was making the case ultra tersely that businesses have a lot of power in terms of adoption of mask mandates or checking for vax and tests. They aren't just checking the laws. They want safe environments for their workers and customers, not just protection from John Law.

 

[pmv]

And does that account for deaths that wouldn't have occurred if Covid-19 patients hadn't been in the way of people getting non-Covid related care?

Well there is evidence here (UK) that deaths from other illnesses have also increased substantially, presumably due to the strain on the health system. I guess it's hard to say for sure when looking at 'excess deaths' what's an un-recorded COVID death and what's a death due to 'knock-on'' effects like suspension of cancer screening or delays in cancer treatment.

Also some deaths have gone down substantially - flu, due to anti-covid measures also stopping the spread of that disease, and (interesting to me) road-traffic-accidents, due to fewer people driving. I guess that's why the excess death figures in New Zealand and Taiwan are negative - overall, health got _better_ there during the pandemic.

 

[Captante]

Dude, wake up. Mandates will disappear not when dems get nervous about their floor falling but when case rates, hospitalization, deaths, what have you fall enough to warrant them disappearing. Witness Marin County and some other areas in CA now where you don't have to mask up as of a few days ago. They have extremely high compliance for vax and very few recalcitrant residents in terms of OMG, don't tread on me BS. They've earned their high fives.

Zin was making the case ultra tersely that businesses have a lot of power in terms of adoption of mask mandates or checking for vax and tests. They aren't just checking the laws. They want safe environments for their workers and customers, not just protection from John Law.

Hartford CT ended their mask-mandate this past Monday... New Haven is still in effect far as I know.

I was in Hartford yesterday and I wore my mask while indoors anyway.

I will also be wearing one indoors in public during cold/flu season moving forward and I don't care what anyone thinks about it.

 

[pmv]

Is that really a useful comparison though? 1918 isn't exactly known for being at the height of medical care.

Depends what 'use' one wants to put such comparisons to. I guess I'm just thinking in terms of how unlucky I should consider myself and my generation. My only point is that those living in 1918 endured an even worse experience, I suppose (not to mention having just come out of the war). I think an infant brother of one of my grandparents died in that pandemic.

{EDIT} so I guess when I'm thinking "God, I can't stand this nightmare much longer" I should remind myself past generations have endured worse, and "this too, shall pass".

 

[Muse]

Depends what 'use' one wants to put such comparisons to. I guess I'm just thinking in terms of how unlucky I should consider myself and my generation. My only point is that those living in 1918 endured an even worse experience, I suppose (not to mention having just come out of the war). I think an infant brother of one of my grandparents died in that pandemic.

{EDIT} so I guess when I'm thinking "God, I can't stand this nightmare much longer" I should remind myself past generations have endured worse, and "this too, shall pass".

The vaccines are the difference here. Big Pharma has quite a bad rep but these covid-19 vaccines have done a lot to improve that, for me anyway. I pity the folks who are blind to this.

 

[Zorba]

Depends what 'use' one wants to put such comparisons to. I guess I'm just thinking in terms of how unlucky I should consider myself and my generation. My only point is that those living in 1918 endured an even worse experience, I suppose (not to mention having just come out of the war). I think an infant brother of one of my grandparents died in that pandemic.

{EDIT} so I guess when I'm thinking "God, I can't stand this nightmare much longer" I should remind myself past generations have endured worse, and "this too, shall pass".

Say someone that was 20 in 1918. WW1, WW2, Flu Pandemic, Great Depression, living without antibiotics, infant mortality rate of like 35%, etc, all before they were 50.

I think we still have it pretty good.

 

[Captante]

{EDIT} so I guess when I'm thinking "God, I can't stand this nightmare much longer" I should remind myself past generations have endured worse, and "this too, shall pass".

Just because it HAS sucked harder in the past (and it really has!) DOES NOT mean 2020/21 didn't suck too!

 

[pmv]

The vaccines are the difference here. Big Pharma has quite a bad rep but these covid-19 vaccines have done a lot to improve that, for me anyway. I pity the folks who are blind to this.

Looking at how bad this still is, even with mass vaccinations in much of the world, it doesn't bear thinking about what it would be like without the vaccines.

I mean, seems as if the (admittedly imperfect, in terms of distribution and actually getting 'shots in arms') vaccine program is at most 'keeping a lid' on the death rates, there doesn't, so far, seem to be much sign of it supressing either the spread of infection or even the mortality, considered overall and globally.

 

[manly]

The vaccines are the difference here. Big Pharma has quite a bad rep but these covid-19 vaccines have done a lot to improve that, for me anyway. I pity the folks who are blind to this.

Moderna has been very aggressive at defending its profit-making abilities after signing very friendly contracts with the previous administration:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1458168803725021189

Looking at how bad this still is, even with mass vaccinations in much of the world, it doesn't bear thinking about what it would be like without the vaccines.

I mean, seems as if the (admittedly imperfect, in terms of distribution and actually getting 'shots in arms') vaccine program is at most 'keeping a lid' on the death rates, there doesn't, so far, seem to be much sign of it supressing either the spread of infection or even the mortality, considered overall and globally.

I know you're pro-vaccines, but this is an oddball conclusion. Since you're in the UK, we know vaccination immunity is definitely suppressing hospitalization and death rates. It's really the only reason the UK has tolerated such a high level of community transmission since July. As for transmission itself, delta is a bitch but most current studies show that the mRNA vaccines do reduce the spread as well. This is a shift in understanding since the CDC dumped data from the infamous Provincetown cluster back in late July.

The main reason the outcomes aren't better globally is because up until very recently, virtually no countries were anywhere close to "herd immunity." In a world without effective vaccines AND with the pandemic fatigue that's influenced a lot of human behavior in the US/UK since springtime, the outcomes in 2021 would have been much worse. Basically take what happened in India this spring and extrapolate that globally.

 

[Kaido]

Hartford CT ended their mask-mandate this past Monday... New Haven is still in effect far as I know.

I was in Hartford yesterday and I wore my mask while indoors anyway.

I will also be wearing one indoors in public during cold/flu season moving forward and I don't care what anyone thinks about it.

FWIW, exactly zero of my customers in this district have lowered their in-house mask requirements. It's not just about liability, but productivity...they don't want people getting sick & then not being to work, because it's an employee's job market out there!

 

[JM Aggie08]

Likely to get a booster in the near future. Not in the age bracket/high risk, but will like start traveling for work soon(ish).

I will of course consult my doctor, as I am not a horse's ass.

 

[K1052]

Every person I know has either boosted or plans to do so before Thanksgiving, regardless of technical eligibility.

 

[pmv]

I know you're pro-vaccines, but this is an oddball conclusion. Since you're in the UK, we know vaccination immunity is definitely suppressing hospitalization and death rates. It's really the only reason the UK has tolerated such a high level of community transmission since July. As for transmission itself, delta is a bitch but most current studies show that the mRNA vaccines do reduce the spread as well. This is a shift in understanding since the CDC dumped data from the infamous Provincetown cluster back in late July.

The main reason the outcomes aren't better globally is because up until very recently, virtually no countries were anywhere close to "herd immunity." In a world without effective vaccines AND with the pandemic fatigue that's influenced a lot of human behavior in the US/UK since springtime, the outcomes in 2021 would have been much worse. Basically take what happened in India this spring and extrapolate that globally.

Probably depends on what one takes 'suppress' to mean. 'Significantly reduce', or 'push down to barely noticeable'.

Clearly vaccinations are keeping death rates much lower than they would otherwise have been, but they aren't pushing them down to zero, and, domestically, it still feels like there's an ongoing battle between the vaccines and the increasing spread due to the (in my opinion, misguided) decision to completely open everything up again. Daily COVID deaths have been creeping up since the end of pandemic restrictions and the running average is getting close to 200 deaths a day. My feeling is that vaccines notwithstanding, if case numbers rise high enough, deaths will concequently reach distressing levels.

And globally the pandemic shows little sign of slowing. That, obviously, is a consequence of the bigger picture regarding vaccines, including the shortage of supplies in many countries and the tiresome vaccine-resistance even in countries that have plenty of them. But it's still bleak to see (I mean, Russia is looking horrendous, makes one wonder whether everyone there is an anti-vaxxer or their vaccine isn't very good).

But agreed, sans vaccines things would have been absolutely horrendous. That's pretty much my point, really.

 

[pmv]

Just checked and on hospitalisations there are curerntly about 9000 people in hospital with covid, whereas this date last year it was 15,000, or for those on ventilators its 1000 now compared with 1200 a year ago.

The existence of vaccines is clearly having an effect, but it doesn't seem to have had as overwhelming an impact as I would have hoped.

 

[manly]

Probably depends on what one takes 'suppress' to mean. 'Significantly reduce', or 'push down to barely noticeable'.

Clearly vaccinations are keeping death rates much lower than they would otherwise have been, but they aren't pushing them down to zero, and, domestically, it still feels like there's an ongoing battle between the vaccines and the increasing spread due to the (in my opinion, misguided) decision to completely open everything up again. Daily COVID deaths have been creeping up since the end of pandemic restrictions and the running average is getting close to 200 deaths a day. My feeling is that vaccines notwithstanding, if case numbers rise high enough, deaths will concequently reach distressing levels.

And globally the pandemic shows little sign of slowing. That, obviously, is a consequence of the bigger picture regarding vaccines, including the shortage of supplies in many countries and the tiresome vaccine-resistance even in countries that have plenty of them. But it's still bleak to see (I mean, Russia is looking horrendous, makes one wonder whether everyone there is an anti-vaxxer or their vaccine isn't very good).

But agreed, sans vaccines things would have been absolutely horrendous. That's pretty much my point, really.

We're pretty much in close agreement, I was just responding to your choice of words.

The reason comparisons to a year ago don't work is because there were a lot of restrictions and mitigations then, and very few now. Also, the pre- alpha variant was predominant at the time globally.

It's hard to comment on the PutinVac's efficacy with any confidence, but Russia's vax rate is really low. Somewhere around 30%, and Ukraine is just half that. The former Soviet republics are in for a world of hurt this winter.