NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[s0me0nesmind1]

For those that haven't heard, COVID cases are spreading like wildfire in Europe

Hopefully people will learn that essentially every place is going to be subjected to spikes... then dying down... then another spike....

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

You seem to be defining "return to normal" strictly based on the economy. We are talking about our daily routine. We've already begun to return to normal but you are saying we can't even begin to return to normal for another 1.25 years. Even then, you temper that prediction with worries about herd immunity. If it doesn't mutate fast enough to become endemic then we'll be a long way toward herd immunity by the middle of 2022 even without a vaccine.

Sorry, I wasn't specifically targetting the economy as relevant to a 'return to normal', I was just speaking of people's willingness to return to normal (go out and do stuff). We hear a lot about the squeaky wheels right now but I think most people are honestly just hunkered down and I think will remain so.

I really don't think we'll be returning to 'normal' for another 1.25 years at the minimum. 'Begun to return to normal' is very different from completely reverting.

Nah. Majority of people are itching to get out the house. The fact is that while some disobey those (college kids, stupid people, etc.) - the majority are tolerant of it.

Families want their kids back in classroom and are tired of dealing with them 24/7.
Single people want to date, and have one-night-stands.
Many people want to return back to work. Both for the social atmosphere and for the money.
Families want to go on outings to the zoo, lake, waterparks, restaurants, etc...


Now - the people who are scared to death of getting COVID will remain that way until Q3 2020 or whatever... But the US as a whole will return to an overall normal function by the end of January 2021 IMO. The whole Q3 is a crock of shit.

Could be. I'm thinking it's closer to half or greater than half that'll just sit tight. We might see a big push for people to 'get out there' once we're rolling out the vaccines... followed by a massive wave of death, and everyone going back in their shells.

Another thing nobody's really talked about, a third of US won't take a COVID immunization according to polls:

One in Three Americans Would Not Get COVID-19 Vaccine

About two-thirds of Americans say they would agree to get vaccinated with a free, FDA-approved coronavirus vaccine if one were available; one-third would not.

news.gallup.com

I know for a fact I personally won't be going out in any sense of 'normal' until after I've seen the efficacy of the vaccine proven, and I've gotten it. After that, I'll probably continue to wear a mask until it's been proven this isn't some 6-mo vaccine/there aren't 30 different mutations floating around.

 

[Artorias]

For those that haven't heard, COVID cases are spreading like wildfire in Europe

Hopefully people will learn that essentially every place is going to be subjected to spikes... then dying down... then another spike....

Except in China. Where they have been report a big fat 0.

 

[local]

Do they go 50-50 or maybe more like 75-25? Seems like the latter might be more efficient.

Definitely 50/50 per the study paperwork I have.

 

[CZroe]

Sorry, I wasn't specifically targetting the economy as relevant to a 'return to normal', I was just speaking of people's willingness to return to normal (go out and do stuff). We hear a lot about the squeaky wheels right now but I think most people are honestly just hunkered down and I think will remain so.

I really don't think we'll be returning to 'normal' for another 1.25 years at the minimum. 'Begun to return to normal' is very different from completely reverting.

...and "already begun to return to normal" is very different from not even having the ability to start returning to normal until the end of 2021/beginning of 2022. To couch even that timeline with a) and b) scenarios that would extend it well beyond that is kind of ludicrous.

The facts of the matter are that the first movers will end up ahead as far as rebounding goes, which means we will not delay once the vaccine becomes widely available. Most anyone who doesn't want the vaccine will have to deal with those consequences themselves. If some chose to stay home, that does not keep the world from returning to normal for everyone else. If the others want to inoculate themselves the hard way, so be it. The rest of us will have many proper vaccines available well before 2022 (!). That is literally the most pessimistic timeline I have seen and it completely ignores how "back to normal" many (most?) places already are.

Pfft! A huge number of people have already jumped back in the water... nothing like the picture you painted where people only start to test the waters in 2022 with many still too scared to dip their toe in. It's bizare that anyone could think that considering we are way past that point even now... hence the much-deserved: "Huh?"

Except in China. Where they have been report a big fat 0.

...the same place that reports single to double-digit influenza deaths every year.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

.and "already begun to return to normal" is very different from not even having the ability to start returning to normal until the end of 2021/beginning of 2022. To couch even that timeline with a) and b) scenarios that would extend it well beyond that is kind of ludicrous.

Who said we wouldn't be able to start by then? We're already starting (preemptively imo). I feel like you're seeking an argument here when we agree with each other. My personal opinion is that we won't be back to normal until 2022 at the earliest, but that depends a lot on how people behave.

My thoughts on timeline are related to vaccine availability (I'm expecting at least one 'hitch' delaying release from testing), manufacturing rates, logistics for delivery, Congress fighting over who gets what, when, at what rate, people fighting over vaccines (to take them, or not), general chaos in getting 300m people to do the same thing, worldwide issues with availability, and finally everyone's general desire to get 'back to normal'. I hated old normal, this normal is much better, so I'll be trying to hang on to it as long as possible.

 

[Muse]

Are we ever going back to "normal?" I have absolutely no fantasies about "going back to normal." Move on. Wanting to go back is reactionary.

 

[Ichinisan]

Well, I hope masks are the new normal. I don't understand why USA can't be more like Asia and get past this stupid aversion to masks.

 

[destrekor]

Well, I hope masks are the new normal. I don't understand why USA can't be more like Asia and get past this stupid aversion to masks.

muh freedum!

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

muh freedum!

I find it funny you folks seem to think that the ones not wearing masks are just simple stereotypes of "gun tottin' flag lovin' " individuals.

I promise you it's not that simple.

 

[purbeast0]

I hope we get to the point where we don't need masks to be the new normal.

I miss going to sporting events down in DC and going to the bars before/after. Doing any of that shit with a mask and trying to distance just isn't a reality. Bars simply can't operate if everyone is masked up.

 

[jpiniero]

Another thing nobody's really talked about, a third of US won't take a COVID immunization according to polls:

One in Three Americans Would Not Get COVID-19 Vaccine

About two-thirds of Americans say they would agree to get vaccinated with a free, FDA-approved coronavirus vaccine if one were available; one-third would not.

news.gallup.com

Don't be surprised if the vaccinated % ends up being low. People are going to lose interest in the virus pretty quickly once the new case count really starts to plummet. Including the people who have antibodies already, you probably don't have to vaccinate that many people to see the virus fizzle out.

 

[destrekor]

Are we ever going back to "normal?" I have absolutely no fantasies about "going back to normal." Move on. Wanting to go back is reactionary.

Nobody ever wants to voluntarily change. As individual animals we're tuned to be reactionary. "The usual" means comfort, and comfort is grand, so we keep it until we are forced to react to changing circumstances. And that's the inflection point where adaptation occurs, or it doesn't.

But that means we'll deal with an epic amount of reactionary disdain for change, and people on "both sides" should be prepared to accept that initial arguments won't be convincing -- for the majority of the populace -- for a long while. And I'm talking well beyond Covid specifically, or at least the current iteration; the discovery projects and modelling all seem to agree, that the dual-threat of climate change combined with humans spreading further into still untouched territory means it's quite likely we'll be dealing with significant novel viral outbreaks more often than we have so far.

Hopefully we can get more people onboard with wearing masks during significant viral seasons, but the US is so far behind the curve in regards to accepting masks that it won't be quick.

 

[Muse]

I hope we get to the point where we don't need masks to be the new normal.

I miss going to sporting events down in DC and going to the bars before/after. Doing any of that shit with a mask and trying to distance just isn't a reality. Bars simply can't operate if everyone is masked up.

That's because they drink. The only times I have gone into bars was to hear live music, and I don't drink.

I figure eventually it won't be necessary to wear masks. But if you're at risk, you might want to wear one anyway. This pandemic has been a wake up call for me. I used to get sick maybe once a year with something. I haven't been sick in the last six months because I have been exposed to exactly nothing. I mean, my chance of getting sick the way I've been living, at least from a pathogen is very low right now.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

.

 

[K1052]

Now that the major phase 3 trial protocols have been released some comparison is now possible

https://twitter.com/x/status/1307415684431765504

 

[Red Squirrel]

No more than 10 people can be together now in an indoor environment.

Premier cuts social gathering limits for all province: 'alarm bells are ringing'

Premier Doug Ford announced today the government is limiting informal gatherings to 10 people indoors and 25 people outdoors

www.timminstoday.com

But yet they are packing 30+ kids in classrooms...

 

[CZroe]

No more than 10 people can be together now in an indoor environment.

Premier cuts social gathering limits for all province: 'alarm bells are ringing'

Premier Doug Ford announced today the government is limiting informal gatherings to 10 people indoors and 25 people outdoors

www.timminstoday.com

But yet they are packing 30+ kids in classrooms...

Schools are not "informal social gatherings." He says this is targeted to parties and such. That's how you target them without schools and churches and such.

Social gatherings are not important enough to justify. Education is obviously more important.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Well, I hope masks are the new normal. I don't understand why USA can't be more like Asia and get past this stupid aversion to masks.

As soon as vaccines have been widely distributed, expect mask usage to fall 97% or more. Masks are unnatural, inhibitive and unappealing to normal in person social interaction. Its like wearing a handcuff on your face. Its a "facecuff."

 

[ch33zw1z]

As soon as vaccines have been widely distributed, expect mask usage to fall 97% or more. Masks are unnatural, inhibitive and unappealing to normal in person social interaction. Its like wearing a handcuff on your face. Its a "facecuff."

"As soon as the pandemic is under control, mask usage will lessen", you don't say? That's some crystal ball you got there

 

[Ichinisan]

I hope we get to the point where we don't need masks to be the new normal.

I miss going to sporting events down in DC and going to the bars before/after. Doing any of that shit with a mask and trying to distance just isn't a reality. Bars simply can't operate if everyone is masked up.

Nothing wrong with people wearing masks while doing stuff. Just like Asia's "normal" for the last decade or so, it doesn't have to be EVERYONE. We just have to stop acting like it's weird when people wear a mask around us.

If it helps with SARS-CoV-2, it helps even more for stuff like influenza (which is already less contagious typically, so the masks are even more effective).

 

[ch33zw1z]

Nothing wrong with people wearing masks while doing stuff. Just like Asia's "normal" for the last decade or so, it doesn't have to be EVERYONE. We just have to stop acting like it's weird when people wear a mask around us.

If it helps with SARS-CoV-2, it helps even more for stuff like influenza.

This.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

As soon as vaccines have been widely distributed, expect mask usage to fall 97% or more. Masks are unnatural, inhibitive and unappealing to normal in person social interaction. Its like wearing a handcuff on your face. Its a "facecuff."

I wouldn't quite go that far.

I wouldn't mind if we took the approach for when someone doesn't feel well that they cover their face.

But I agree in the general sense, that unless there is an overall purpose you shouldn't be wearing a mask. Seems almost like a way to avoid any social interactions. Not really surprising that reproduction rates are so low in Asian countries when you can't even see someone's face.

 

[Ichinisan]

As soon as vaccines have been widely distributed, expect mask usage to fall 97% or more. Masks are unnatural, inhibitive and unappealing to normal in person social interaction. Its like wearing a handcuff on your face. Its a "facecuff."

I'm talking about the Asia attitude that existed for more than a decade before COVID. If you want to wear a mask when you go out (pollution, flu, whatever, ...), your friends won't think it's weird.

 

[Ichinisan]

I wouldn't quite go that far.

I wouldn't mind if we took the approach for when someone doesn't feel well that they cover their face.

But I agree in the general sense, that unless there is an overall purpose you shouldn't be wearing a mask. Seems almost like a way to avoid any social interactions. Not really surprising that reproduction rates are so low in Asian countries when you can't even see someone's face.

Masks make a lot of people seem way more attractive.