NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[K1052]

That is the idea. I am starting to feel a bit crap but it is hard to tell if this is normal end of work day beatdown or something else.

Also of note the study is no longer double blind because apparently the person applying the vaccine can tell the difference between the real stuff and the saline.

Yeah I read they can tell the difference from the viscosity of the fluid.

 

[Muse]

Yeah I read they can tell the difference from the viscosity of the fluid.

snicker, snicker.

 

[Scarpozzi]

 

[local]

Next morning update, I have a huge headache (not unusual unfortunately) and generally feel kinda crap. No fever at all and no identifiable body aches or injection site irritation. Leaning towards placebo but impossible to know for sure.

 

[K1052]

This is somewhat (+5M) above but mostly in line with scale of what CDC planning docs say about vaccine availability. Remember that all mRNA vaccines are two dose.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1306967471694532609

 

[K1052]

no shit

https://twitter.com/x/status/1307014089768607744

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

This is somewhat (+5M) above but mostly in line with scale of what CDC planning docs say about vaccine availability. Remember that all mRNA vaccines are two dose.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1306967471694532609

Yeaaaaaaaaaaaah, I'm sorry but with that whole statement the other day about things not returnign to normal until end of Q2 / mid Q3 of 2021 is a nice cup o' BS.

How many vaccines from different makers do we have right now that are on the brink of acceptance and nearing the end of phase 3?

If each one is able to produce 20m by the end of the year, that's pretty much a huge chunk of America.... Plus, plenty already have the antibodies that have already had it.

Manufacturing is already ramped up and ready to pump them out, so unlike the testing, it isn't going to take long to manufacture either.

 

[K1052]

Yeaaaaaaaaaaaah, I'm sorry but with that whole statement the other day about things not returnign to normal until end of Q2 / mid Q3 of 2021 is a nice cup o' BS.

How many vaccines from different makers do we have right now that are on the brink of acceptance and nearing the end of phase 3?

If each one is able to produce 20m by the end of the year, that's pretty much a huge chunk of America.... Plus, plenty already have the antibodies that have already had it.

Manufacturing is already ramped up and ready to pump them out, so unlike the testing, it isn't going to take long to manufacture either.

Close of Q2 sounds on the money to me for full normal if both mRNA vaccines are approved before the end of this year. It's possible AZ will get approved early next but their US trial is still stalled so I wouldn't put it in the bag.

End of year dose availability will probably be 40-50M doses (remember each person needs two doses). Production will continue to ramp into Jan/Feb but I doubt either company can make/fill/distribute more than 50M doses each per month and us logistically stick it in people, especially with Pfizer's cold chain requirements. Then you also have to wait 21 or 28 days before second dosing and then another week or so past that for full immune response per the data I have seen.

Things are likely to slow dial back on as vaccination progresses though so not like some giant switch will be flipped at the end of Q2. A lot of this is about confidence at this point since lots of states are almost totally open with few restrictions but business levels are still comparatively low. Public confidence must be restored for the recovery to really kick in even as a vaccine achieves distribution.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Close of Q2 sounds on the money to me for full normal if both mRNA vaccines are approved before the end of this year. It's possible AZ will get approved early next but their US trial is still stalled so I wouldn't put it in the bag.

End of year dose availability will probably be 40-50M doses (remember each person needs two doses). Production will continue to ramp into Jan/Feb but I doubt either company can make/fill/distribute more than 50M doses each per month and us logistically stick it in people, especially with Pfizer's cold chain requirements. Then you also have to wait 21 or 28 days before second dosing and then another week or so past that for full immune response per the data I have seen.

Things are likely to slow dial back on as vaccination progresses though so not like some giant switch will be flipped at the end of Q2. A lot of this is about confidence at this point since lots of states are almost totally open with few restrictions but business levels are still comparatively low. Public confidence must be restored for the recovery to really kick in even as a vaccine achieves distribution.

I guess what are we defining as back to normal?

I would define back to normal as bars, restaurants, clubs, gyms, etc... are open to 100%.

I honestly think that will happen in full by the end of January 2021.... and to be honest, that's me just making a safe bet. I would venture to say that it will be at or close to that by end of December.

 

[K1052]

I guess what are we defining as back to normal?

I would define back to normal as bars, restaurants, clubs, gyms, etc... are open to 100%.

I honestly think that will happen in full by the end of January 2021.... and to be honest, that's me just making a safe bet. I would venture to say that it will be at or close to that by end of December.

Full capacity unmasked indoor business nationally with sustained extremely low case count.

No, we will not be back at normal this year or in the first couple months of next. The doses for that simply do not exist.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I guess what are we defining as back to normal?

I would define back to normal as bars, restaurants, clubs, gyms, etc... are open to 100%.

I honestly think that will happen in full by the end of January 2021.... and to be honest, that's me just making a safe bet. I would venture to say that it will be at or close to that by end of December.

I think the capability to return to normal may be available Q42021/new years 2022, but I think we're going to run into big problems a) actually vaccinating enough people to hit herd immunity and b) people actually wanting to be social enough to get the economy to where it was. I'm willing to bet a whole pile of people became introverts over the last 9mo.

 

[CZroe]

Full capacity unmasked indoor business nationally with sustained extremely low case count.

No, we will not be back at normal this year or in the first couple months of next. The doses for that simply do not exist.

I don't think the sustained case count will matter much once the particularly vulnerable are vaccinated.

 

[local]

24 hour update. Fairly bad headache continues. General tiredness also continues. Digestive complications also seem to be in effect. That would give me the most common reported side effects for the real deal vaccine.

I am also experiencing a decent loss of focus which could just be due to the headache but it is very noticeable. I have forgotten what I was saying mid sentence at least once.

I'm still going to reserve judgment to see if these symptoms return following the second dose, they are supposed to be worse the second time around.

I guess what are we defining as back to normal?

I would define back to normal as bars, restaurants, clubs, gyms, etc... are open to 100%.

I honestly think that will happen in full by the end of January 2021.... and to be honest, that's me just making a safe bet. I would venture to say that it will be at or close to that by end of December.

Removal of social distancing and mask requirements.

TX is already at 100% open I don't care what arbitrary number Abbott puts out, real life says otherwise.

 

[CZroe]

I think the capability to return to normal may be available Q42021/new years 2022, but I think we're going to run into big problems a) actually vaccinating enough people to hit herd immunity and b) people actually wanting to be social enough to get the economy to where it was. I'm willing to bet a whole pile of people became introverts over the last 9mo.

Huh?

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Huh?

What?

 

[K1052]

I don't think the sustained case count will matter much once the particularly vulnerable are vaccinated.

Since we do not yet know the efficacy of the potential vaccines in those groups this is still speculative. The most vulnerable people are also the most likely not to mount an optimal immune response in vaccination. There are glimmers in the limited phase 1/2 data but nothing you'd want to take to the bank.

 

[K1052]

24 hour update. Fairly bad headache continues. General tiredness also continues. Digestive complications also seem to be in effect. That would give me the most common reported side effects for the real deal vaccine.

I am also experiencing a decent loss of focus which could just be due to the headache but it is very noticeable. I have forgotten what I was saying mid sentence at least once.

I'm still going to reserve judgment to see if these symptoms return following the second dose, they are supposed to be worse the second time around.

Sounds like you probably got the candidate.

TX is already at 100% open I don't care what arbitrary number Abbott puts out, real life says otherwise.

Yes, this is correct.

 

[CZroe]

What?

You seem to be defining "return to normal" strictly based on the economy. We are talking about our daily routine. We've already begun to return to normal but you are saying we can't even begin to return to normal for another 1.25 years. Even then, you temper that prediction with worries about herd immunity. If it doesn't mutate fast enough to become endemic then we'll be a long way toward herd immunity by the middle of 2022 even without a vaccine.

 

[K1052]

In related TX health news I'm really going through the spin cycle this allergy season of "Is it the death plague or just ragweed?"

Always a wee bit skeptical till the Allegra hits.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I think the capability to return to normal may be available Q42021/new years 2022, but I think we're going to run into big problems a) actually vaccinating enough people to hit herd immunity and b) people actually wanting to be social enough to get the economy to where it was. I'm willing to bet a whole pile of people became introverts over the last 9mo.

Nah. Majority of people are itching to get out the house. The fact is that while some disobey those (college kids, stupid people, etc.) - the majority are tolerant of it.

Families want their kids back in classroom and are tired of dealing with them 24/7.
Single people want to date, and have one-night-stands.
Many people want to return back to work. Both for the social atmosphere and for the money.
Families want to go on outings to the zoo, lake, waterparks, restaurants, etc...


Now - the people who are scared to death of getting COVID will remain that way until Q3 2020 or whatever... But the US as a whole will return to an overall normal function by the end of January 2021 IMO. The whole Q3 is a crock of shit.

 

[Svnla]

Israel is about to lock down the whole country for the 2nd time. Madrid, Spain will be in restriction mode for the whole city. France has over 13K new cases for the last 24 hours. Germany is in warning mode. UK does not rule out another nationwide lock down again. Europe is not doing too well.

 

[Muse]

no shit

https://twitter.com/x/status/1307014089768607744

I remember hearing that the CDC guidance against testing people who had contact with infected people but were asymptomatic was rolled back basically next day what with the uproar that the original proclamation precipitated. Seems like 2-3 weeks ago now.

 

[Muse]

I think the capability to return to normal may be available Q42021/new years 2022, but I think we're going to run into big problems a) actually vaccinating enough people to hit herd immunity and b) people actually wanting to be social enough to get the economy to where it was. I'm willing to bet a whole pile of people became introverts over the last 9mo.

Personally, I don't expect to get social until herd immunity has demonstrably kicked in. For one thing, if my vaccine is 60% effective, say, I have a 40% chance of not being protected at all by virtue of my personal immunity. The only thing protecting me then would be herd immunity.

 

[Muse]

Sounds like you probably got the candidate.

Do they go 50-50 or maybe more like 75-25? Seems like the latter might be more efficient.

 

[K1052]

Do they go 50-50 or maybe more like 75-25? Seems like the latter might be more efficient.

I believe half the group gets the candidate and half the placebo.