NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[Muse]

@Muse
You could have put those last 2 pictures you posted behind the "spoiler" tag. Or even opted for the smaller format.

The ones of young smallpox victims? Why would I want to do that? Did I offend your delicate sensibilities?

 

[Spacehead]

The ones of young smallpox victims?

Yes

Why would I want to do that?

I just wasn't expecting to see large, hi-rez pics of horribly diseased faces. It would of given people the option to look if they wanted.

Did I offend your delicate sensibilities?

No


It was just a suggestion, no big deal.

 

[Muse]

I just wasn't expecting to see large, hi-rez pics of horribly diseased faces. It would of given people the option to look if they wanted.

It was just a suggestion, no big deal.

OK, I realize those pictures can be somewhat shocking. But let me say, I've seen pictures many many many times more shocking and revolting. My father was an M.D. and his rows and rows of medical books were right there in our family room as I grew up. I had a look. What I posted is alarming, but nothing compared to what I have seen. If you can't handle those 2 pictures I posted, you are rather naive. This is no time to be a Pollyanna. And yes, we have a big problem with anti-vaxers. We have a lot of people who deny reality day in, day out. The worst of them try to undermine other people's sanity. There are plenty of them.

 

[K1052]

Does it matter that they want states ready by Nov 1? I'm not sure i understand why the media(at least) is making such a big deal over the date.
Or is the amount of paperwork involved so massive as to be an issue to have the permits ready by then?

It's probably mostly for show. The anticipated number of doses that will be available on Nov 1 are maybe a couple million which would not require a massive nationwide distribution system to be operational at all costs which the CDC is directing. Even by end of year I think the cumulative dose availably is expected to be max 40M between Pfizer and Moderna assuming both candidates are granted EUA which is another whole issue.

 

[CZroe]

Call me "cynical," but it seems the idea is to have some quantity of vaccine rolling out before the election that appears to be a full-scale distribution... when it's not. I'd love to be wrong, but it sure looks like we'll be rationing those early doses.

Even 40 million doses would be a huge help if we could give them to the most vulnerable 40 million. The natural spread would continue and be significantly less deadly... perhaps enough to reopen most everything with a clean conscience.

Is the new BinaxNOW rapid antibody test from Abbott Laboratories reliable enough to screen people and not waste it on those who are already immune? If so, 40 million vaccines could get us a whole lot closer to herd immunity really quick.

 

[K1052]

Call me "cynical," but it seems the idea is to have some quantity of vaccine rolling out before the election that appears to be a full-scale distribution... when it's not. I'd love to be wrong, but it sure looks like we'll be rationing those early doses.

Even 40 million doses would be a huge help if we could give them to the most vulnerable 40 million. The natural spread would continue and be significantly less deadly... perhaps enough to reopen most everything with a clean conscience.

Yeah that's what it's looking like. A false (or at least premature) victory lap.

The wrinkle is that 40M doses is only enough for 20M people since both RNA vaccines are two doses 21 days apart. This would cover basically the nation's healthcare workers who are going to get the highest priority. The shift back to "normal" is likely to be gradual over the first half of 2021 as more doses come available and potentially other candidates are authorized (Oxford-AZ being the most likely).

 

[Roger Wilco]

India has 1.3B people, many of whom are poor and live in crowded slums in megacities, with little to no social safety net. It was obvious months ago they would eventually careen to disaster; essentially they are like Brazil but with 6 times the population.

I agree, it was inevitable. I just wonder what the implications will be for the rest of the world and if travel restrictions will be enough.

 

[CZroe]

Yeah that's what it's looking like. A false (or at least premature) victory lap.

The wrinkle is that 40M doses is only enough for 20M people since both RNA vaccines are two doses 21 days apart. This would cover basically the nation's healthcare workers who are going to get the highest priority. The shift back to "normal" is likely to be gradual over the first half of 2021 as more doses come available and potentially other candidates are authorized (Oxford-AZ being the most likely).

Thanks. That's the perspective I needed.

I wonder how many healthcare workers haven't already developed immunity by this point. Has there been any study showing how many frontline healthcare workers have likely been exposed? I assume it's a significantly higher percentage versus the population in general.

 

[rh71]

Does it matter that they want states ready by Nov 1? I'm not sure i understand why the media(at least) is making such a big deal over the date.
Or is the amount of paperwork involved so massive as to be an issue to have the permits ready by then?

Yeah I'm not sure what Election Day has to do with it. Are people going to vote one way or the other based on a NOTIFICATION that a vaccine that may or may not work is potentially ready? A vaccine that may not even be administered until after the election... and the effects will not be known until after then...

Ok, I get it - people are easily swayed...

 

[CZroe]

Yeah I'm not sure what Election Day has to do with it. Are people going to vote one way or the other based on a NOTIFICATION that a vaccine that may or may not work is potentially ready? A vaccine that may not even be administered until after the election... and the effects will not be known until after then...

Ok, I get it - people are easily swayed...

On Election Day he will be touting his success at bringing us the vaccine with a massive roll-out "before anyone ever dreamed it was possible." He'll go on and on about how "they" said he couldn't do it but he moved mountains to make it happen. "America first" and all that. He'll take full credit for saving the economy by pressuring the CDC and FDA. For a few days it will look like it is happening... until those 40 million doses run out. "A few days" is all he needs. If it works out he will win votes.

Granted, more will trickle out for the rest of the year but likely nothing significant in 2020 for the vast majority of Americans.

 

[CZroe]

Yeah I'm not sure what Election Day has to do with it. Are people going to vote one way or the other based on a NOTIFICATION that a vaccine that may or may not work is potentially ready? A vaccine that may not even be administered until after the election... and the effects will not be known until after then...

Ok, I get it - people are easily swayed...

Some are. Enough are.

 

[rh71]

Does man-child not realize it could be a huge swing-and-a-miss and hurt him instead? Desperate times I guess.

 

[Spacehead]

It's probably mostly for show. The anticipated number of doses that will be available on Nov 1 are maybe a couple million which would not require a massive nationwide distribution system to be operational at all costs which the CDC is directing. Even by end of year I think the cumulative dose availably is expected to be max 40M between Pfizer and Moderna assuming both candidates are granted EUA which is another whole issue.

OK, thanks.

Realistically, does it seem like there will be something ready by then?
I know trials are going well & a lot can happen in 2 months but i guess i wasn't thinking there would be approval by then.

 

[K1052]

Thanks. That's the perspective I needed.

I wonder how many healthcare workers haven't already developed immunity by this point. Has there been any study showing how many frontline healthcare workers have likely been exposed? I assume it's a significantly higher percentage versus the population in general.

Higher in the initial months when there were big PPE shortages and lower in recent months as supplies and procedures stabilized, from what I've read. They should still get first crack at it IMO. A big deal will be inoculating all the long term care workers and staff since that's how it's getting into those facilities.

 

[K1052]

OK, thanks.

Realistically, does it seem like there will be something ready by then?
I know trials are going well & a lot can happen in 2 months but i guess i wasn't thinking there would be approval by then.

There is a genuine possibility that the early data is compelling enough for a legitimate EUA or even if it's super good to stop the trial(s) altogether and start dosing as many people as possible. Fauci actually addressed this the other day as a possible outcome but not one that is by any means certain.

Pfizer seems to think they will have sufficient data to submit for an EUA in October. They have been extremely confident of their candidate the whole way through.

Had the CDC and FDA not been squandering their reputations at the direction of political appointees under pressure from the President for the last 6 months we wouldn't even need to have this conversation. If there is an EUA the fullest possible data should be released to support it. It is unlikely a company would submit for one with slanted/falsified data or allow the government to stretch the justification too much since it would put their business at great risk.

 

[Muse]

OK, thanks.

Realistically, does it seem like there will be something ready by then?
I know trials are going well & a lot can happen in 2 months but i guess i wasn't thinking there would be approval by then.

Trump may be able to get crony/flunkie folks to "approve," witness what the head of the C.D.C. did last week (and backtrack the next day because of the monumental headwind storm), and the FDA shenanigans lately. But there's almost certain to be major statements by people with veritas concerning the premature nature of any vaccines "available" by election day. Most people (all canny people) will take the bruhaha with a shaker full of salt

 

[K1052]

Pfizer said today that phase 3 enrollment is over 23,000.

 

[Homerboy]

This doesn't sound good:

BREAKING: #PennState's director of athletic medicine, Wayne Sebastianelli, says that cardiac MRI scans revealed that roughly 30-35 percent of Big Ten athletes who tested positive for COVID-19 appeared to have myocarditis

 

[Stopsignhank]

I know I won’t get the vaccine until Fauci says it is safe to get the vaccine.

 

[K1052]

Is the new BinaxNOW rapid antibody test from Abbott Laboratories reliable enough to screen people and not waste it on those who are already immune? If so, 40 million vaccines could get us a whole lot closer to herd immunity really quick.

Abbott's Binax is an antigen test. It's looking for viral protien from an active infection. It is less accurate than PCR tests but you can make tens or even hundreds of millions of them a month once developed and scaled.

Scientific consensus seems to be right now that it's better to just stick everybody with vaccine. Some people who get minor infections may not have the same level of protection as people who got more severe ones and they'd still need to be vaccinated even if they had a positive antibody test.

 

[pmv]

Apparently Batman has tested postive for covid19. Is nobody safe?

 

[K1052]

Apparently Batman has tested postive for covid19. Is nobody safe?

Oh the irony.

 

[pmv]

Oh the irony.

That actually didn't occur to me till you mentioned it.

Perhaps they'll hastily write in The Pangolin to replace The Penguin?

 

[Scarpozzi]

Apparently Batman has tested postive for covid19. Is nobody safe?

Is he supposed to be some kind of Emo Vampire Batman?

 

[K1052]

That actually didn't occur to me till you mentioned it.

Perhaps they'll hastily write in The Pangolin to replace The Penguin?

Perhaps he'll make soup out of his victims.