NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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P

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,060
7,985
136
Greenman said:
The vast majority of 40 to 60 year olds I know have no underlying health problems.
Click to expand...

But 'people Greenman knows' is not a scientifically-selected sampling of the population!

It probably depends a lot on how they are defining 'underlying health problems'. They don't really seem to explain that (athlete's foot? migraines? a bad knee?)

I wonder whether 'being overweight' is considered as an "underlying health problem"? I saw one report making a big deal out of the fact that 65% of those who died were overweight - when I suspect that's pretty much in line with the percentage of the general population, so doesn't mean much.

Diabetes is pretty common, that's 1 in 10 of the US population, and if you include pre-diabetes it's nearly 1 in 3.
 
P

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,060
7,985
136
mopardude87 said:
Things like that are the reason i love that dude as more then a actor, him being in Dead Pool yeah talk about a career saver. When a guy can make fun of himself, that's someone worth my respect. If you seen last Deadpool, there is post credit scene no spoilers but yeah beyond a riot.
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He's not the only one...maybe there should be a "Coronavirus donation" Oscar category. Get 'em competitively donating. "The award for best peformance in a pandemic goes to..."

www.theguardian.com

James McAvoy donates £275,000 to NHS medics’ PPE crowdfunding appeal

Actor’s donation takes total raised to over £400,000 for purchase of masks, visors and gloves
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
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Muse

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,523
8,107
136
pmv said:
I wonder whether 'being overweight' is considered as an "underlying health problem"? I saw one report making a big deal out of the fact that 65% of those who died were overweight - when I suspect that's pretty much in line with the percentage of the general population, so doesn't mean much.
Click to expand...
That 34 minute video by Vietnamese doctor linked here, he mentioned BMI of 40 puts you in that category (preexisting health issue).
 
G

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,388
5,130
136
pmv said:
But 'people Greenman knows' is not a scientifically-selected sampling of the population!
Click to expand...
Clearly it isn't. But I was a responding to one specific post, not making blanket statement about the overall health of most americans over 60.
 
T

TheOnlySuperdog

Junior Member
Oct 20, 2006
11
6
71
K1052 said:
Here is a really good representation of how boned much of the South is because they don't take this seriously.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage



I'm curious what sort of special immunity these people think their locality has to a virus. I don't think it asks for a zip code before infecting you.
Click to expand...
I live in Alabama and I don't get it. Maybe the thinking down in Montgomery is different than here in northern AL. Most people (not all) that I know have been taking this pretty seriously. Could be that a large number of us in this area are transplants...

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using Tapatalk
 
S

s0me0nesmind1

Lifer
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
TheOnlySuperdog said:
I live in Alabama and I don't get it. Maybe the thinking down in Montgomery is different than here in northern AL. Most people (not all) that I know have been taking this pretty seriously. Could be that a large number of us in this area are transplants...

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah as someone that does live in the south - I think it is taken pretty seriously. The fact that people still travel doesn't mean they aren't observing the general rules of social distancing.

I'm curious of what their measurement of "travel" is.

I "traveled" down the road to pickup groceries. I traveled a few blocks to pickup food at a restaurant.


EDIT: I see - so they are basing it on cell-phone locations whereby 1 mile isn't considered travel, but 5 miles is. Fucking dumb and worthless. NYT is ineptly fucking stupid to not understand this thing called population density.

For reference, the Costco we go to is ~10miles away.

While I do have a grocery store that is just down the road, that isn't the case for everyone else... ESPECIALLY rural areas.
 
DrMrLordX

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,644
10,862
136
K1052 said:
I'm curious what sort of special immunity these people think their locality has to a virus. I don't think it asks for a zip code before infecting you.
Click to expand...

All he's saying is that Southern states don't have a lot of cases yet. That might change in the future or it might not. Georgia issued a a shelter-in-place yesterday, but TN and AL are resisting.

TheOnlySuperdog said:
I live in Alabama and I don't get it. Maybe the thinking down in Montgomery is different than here in northern AL. Most people (not all) that I know have been taking this pretty seriously. Could be that a large number of us in this area are transplants...
Click to expand...

Or it could be that most Alabamans are already sheltering in place voluntarily. Like you.
 
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ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
So Spain and Italy both have like 100,000 cases and 10,000 deaths each. So about 10% death rate. South Korea has about 10,000 cases and 170 death and US has about 200,000 cases and 5,000 deaths. So about 1.7% death rate in SK and 2.5% death rate in USA. SK and USA tested the most so I'm going to assume about 2% death rate for this virus. So there's probably like 500,000 cases in each Spain and Italy right now instead of 100,000. Spain and Italy are so overwhelmed they're behind testing.

It's going to be interesting to see the public reaction when USA has like 1.5 million cases by Easter and around 30,000 deaths based on current projections. Hopefully the numbers will be lot lower but it's not looking good.
 
K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,067
33,129
136
DrMrLordX said:
All he's saying is that Southern states don't have a lot of cases yet. That might change in the future or it might not. Georgia issued a a shelter-in-place yesterday, but TN and AL are resisting.
Click to expand...

Define "a lot". Alabama had hundreds of confirmed positives and certainly more due to testing shortages and asymptomatic people walking around. The virus is clearly going to spread quite widely but the less eye popping figures in places (for now) convey a false sense of security due to time lag between infection, becoming symptomatic, hospitalization, and then deaths.

Also Kemp (GA) claimed his government didn't know asymptomatic people could be spreaders lol. Even the WH has been saying that for weeks. Either these people are hugely incompetent or lying.
 
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R

randay

Lifer
May 30, 2006
11,019
216
106
ponyo said:
So Spain and Italy both have like 100,000 cases and 10,000 deaths each. So about 10% death rate. South Korea has about 10,000 cases and 170 death and US has about 200,000 cases and 5,000 deaths. So about 1.7% death rate in SK and 2.5% death rate in USA. SK and USA tested the most so I'm going to assume about 2% death rate for this virus. So there's probably like 500,000 cases in each Spain and Italy right now instead of 100,000. Spain and Italy are so overwhelmed they're behind testing.

It's going to be interesting to see the public reaction when USA has like 1.5 million cases by Easter and around 30,000 deaths based on current projections. Hopefully the numbers will be lot lower but it's not looking good.
Click to expand...
youre not taking into account the effectiveness of each healthcare system
 
Brainonska511

Brainonska511

Lifer
Dec 10, 2005
24,096
6,904
136
ponyo said:
So Spain and Italy both have like 100,000 cases and 10,000 deaths each. So about 10% death rate. South Korea has about 10,000 cases and 170 death and US has about 200,000 cases and 5,000 deaths. So about 1.7% death rate in SK and 2.5% death rate in USA. SK and USA tested the most so I'm going to assume about 2% death rate for this virus. So there's probably like 500,000 cases in each Spain and Italy right now instead of 100,000. Spain and Italy are so overwhelmed they're behind testing.

It's going to be interesting to see the public reaction when USA has like 1.5 million cases by Easter and around 30,000 deaths based on current projections. Hopefully the numbers will be lot lower but it's not looking good.
Click to expand...
You can't calculate death rate like that. Deaths and total cases are not temporally synonymous, and there are also likely many unconfirmed cases. It's a bad situation, but we don't need to exacerbate it with bad statistical analysis
 
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Muse

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,523
8,107
136
Red Squirrel said:
I would love to see him run for president.

Gates2020: Where do you want to go today?
Click to expand...
I don't think he'd be a train wreck ... like Trump. He knows well the need to deleGATE... and do it well. No question about that. And that's gotta be as important as anything in a POTUS.
 
Red Squirrel

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,407
12,144
126
www.anyf.ca
One thing to probably keep in mind too is if someone dies and they never got tested, they might get tested after (is that possible?) so it might make it seem like rate is higher too.

I don't know how true this is but also heard that people dying from other causes who happen to test positive are also being counted as a statistic even though they died of the other cause.
 
thestrangebrew1

thestrangebrew1

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2011
3,454
398
126
thestrangebrew1

thestrangebrew1

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2011
3,454
398
126
K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,067
33,129
136
echo4747 said:
If this is true, it is pretty much game over as far as avoiding getting infected:
www.cnn.com

Experts tell White House coronavirus can spread through talking or even just breathing | CNN

A prestigious scientific panel told the White House Wednesday night that research shows coronavirus can be spread not just by sneezes or coughs, but also just by talking, or possibly even just breathing.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
Click to expand...

If there is actually any benefit to putting an entire population in face masks its got to mostly be the possibility of inhibiting spread from mildly sick and asymptomatic carriers. The data is kind of all over the place unfortunately.
 
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Which is why they're now pushing masks narrative. I had suspected this could be spread by general breathing or talking.
 
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E

echo4747

Golden Member
Jun 22, 2005
1,976
155
106
K1052 said:
If there is actually any benefit to putting an entire population in face masks its got to mostly be the possibility of inhibiting spread from mildly sick and asymptomatic carriers. The data is kind of all over the place unfortunately.
Click to expand...
even facemasks really are not enough.. need tight sealing eye protection as well... probably need a decontamination room for undressing/ showering as well.. if its aerosalized ...I'm sure clothing is likely how a sponge acts when dipped in water
 
E

echo4747

Golden Member
Jun 22, 2005
1,976
155
106
what about driving in your vehicle? probably not a bad idea to keep the hvac system in recirculation setting
 
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Captante

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
30,278
10,783
136
echo4747 said:
what about driving in your vehicle? probably not a bad idea to keep the hvac system in recirculation setting
Click to expand...


Perhaps a tad extreme?

To be fair however when I was in a drive-through line @ BK last week the thought did cross my mind.
 
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