May 6th Primaries Thread

[Farang]

Originally posted by: mflacy

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: lupi

Originally posted by: conehead433
The results are that Obama gained more delegates on Billary who can only promise all the super delegates with new cars and gas for life to capture the nomination.

And of these 2 states, which is likely to vote dem in november and which isn't.

In 2004, Indiana went 60/39 to Bush while North Carolina went 56/44 to Bush.

Answer: North Carolina

I'm never one to translate election results so concretely, because I think a Democrat who ignores a group of voters can't be compared to a Democrat who may try to focus on those voters in a different election between different candidates.

I also don't buy the underlying argument here--that only blue states matter for a Democrat. Clinton may have won the primary in California for example, but those results are not at all transferable to the general election and polls show her then losing traditionally Democrat-leaning states like Washington and Oregon. They both have weaknesses across the electoral map. I think generally Clinton at best would win by a thin margin--using the Democratic backbone states of CA, NY, PA, etc. She also has less of a downside because she could lock up those states. Obama has more of an upside--a real shot to dominate the map with wins in VA, WI, CO, etc. At the same time he has a bigger downside--a shot at losing CA, NY, or PA and losing in a landslide by electoral votes.

edit: I just realized I said you can't transfer primary results to the general election, then I proceeded to do just that. so much for consistency

 

[Duddy]

How will Hillary spin this as a win this time? She lost North Carolina BIG TIME and it looks like IN may be a close one. The overall winner tonight is Obama.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Face the facts, we have been waiting for this moment for weeks as we have endless speculated about various outcomes.

Now that moment is at hand and we can't wait two damn hours until the final results come in?

The time of speculation is over, no amount of spin will now change anything, I for one will wait for the final results still at least two hours into the future.

P&N is nothing without speculation. Stop being a killjoy!

Hillary is getting pimp slapped in NC. It seems that if essentially all blacks there support obama, then between whites it's like 50/50. It is still early, but his insane margin is still there despite several hundred thousand votes now counted.

Obama won't win IN, but he's not going to lose by a lot and he is so far smashing NC. I imagine that lead will still shrink, but her best case tonight was a tie of delegates, and she won't get it. The race is closer to over and she has actually lost ground. All in all a complete catastrophe for her tonight.

 

[mflacy]

Indiana lead slimming again: 67% of the vote in.

Clinton 53%
Obama 47%

 

[nageov3t]

the BS spin practically writes itself... IN was contested, 50:50, and she won. Obama went into NC with a huge advantage and of course he won there.

 

[OREOSpeedwagon]

Originally posted by: mflacy
Indiana lead slimming again

Clinton 53%
Obama 47%

Lake County (Gary) still has 0% reported too.

 

[ja1484]

If you look at CNN's by-county spread here, most of the rural counties are 100% in, where Clinton has her strongest showings. Conversely, the urban areas, where Obama has his strongholds, are mostly only 50-75% in. These areas heavily favor Obama percentage-wise and have very large populations.

Most of Clinton's vote is already in, Obama's only stands to grow at this point. It's unlikely, but he could still carry the state, and if he does lose it'll be by a razor margin.

 

[Duddy]

Obama will win Gary.

Gary, IN Race Demographic (White and Black)
White 12245 11.92%
Black or African American 86340 84.03%

 

[OREOSpeedwagon]

Originally posted by: Duddy
Obama will win Gary.

Gary, IN Race Demographic (White and Black)
White 12245 11.92%
Black or African American 86340 84.03%

Obama has 66% of the vote in Monroe County (Bloomington) with only 10% in too.. Big Obama support there so he will gain a few thousand more at least from Monroe.

 

[lupi]

the black vote in NC is like 1/3 of the dem voting block and is nearly unanimously voting BHO, the fact hillary can keep it even reasonably close is good.


On the really good news, other polls are showing that the voting mccain vice the other dem in November has climbed to the thirties.

 

[theeedude]

It's sad how racist the black vote has been in this primary.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: senseamp
It's sad how racist the black vote has been in this primary.

:roll:

 

[Duddy]

I do wonder if Obama would even be winning if there were no race-based votes. Same for Hillary with her female vote.

Basically, I wish ignorant people weren't allowed to vote.

 

[OREOSpeedwagon]

Originally posted by: senseamp
It's sad how racist the black vote has been in this primary.

Spend some time in rural Indiana and you'll see the white vote is pretty racist as well. 95% of the dems I've met who are voting Hillary won't vote for Obama because he's black.

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
It's sad how racist the black vote has been in this primary.

:roll:

You don't think they are voting based on race when over 90% vote for Obama?

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: OREOSpeedwagon

Originally posted by: senseamp
It's sad how racist the black vote has been in this primary.

Spend some time in rural Indiana and you'll see the white vote is pretty racist as well. 95% of the dems I've met who are voting Hillary won't vote for Obama because he's black.

I am sure some parts of white vote are like that, but pretty much all of the black vote is going to Obama.

 

[bamacre]

Black people shouldn't be able to vote for black candidates.

 

[theeedude]

Sex by race
Category % Total Clinton Obama No Preference
White men 28 54 40 4
White women 35 64 32 3
Black men 13 6 92 2
Black women 20 5 91 3

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
It's sad how racist the black vote has been in this primary.

:roll:

You don't think they are voting based on race when over 90% vote for Obama?

90% of blacks have chosen to embrace Hope.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: OREOSpeedwagon

Originally posted by: senseamp
It's sad how racist the black vote has been in this primary.

Spend some time in rural Indiana and you'll see the white vote is pretty racist as well. 95% of the dems I've met who are voting Hillary won't vote for Obama because he's black.

ummm according to exit polls the white vote went 60% Hillary 40% Obama.

Meanwhile the black vote went 90% Obama 10% Hillary.

And yet we are talking about white voters being racist?

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
It's sad how racist the black vote has been in this primary.

:roll:

You don't think they are voting based on race when over 90% vote for Obama?

90% of blacks have chosen to embrace Hope.

Good for them. Of course if 90% of whites choose to embrace Experience, there will be a totally different spin put on that.

 

[mflacy]

Yikers! 72% of the vote in.

Clinton 52%
Obama 48%

 

[mozirry]

dropped to 52 48 hilary

ahahhaha

 

[Duddy]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: OREOSpeedwagon

Originally posted by: senseamp
It's sad how racist the black vote has been in this primary.

Spend some time in rural Indiana and you'll see the white vote is pretty racist as well. 95% of the dems I've met who are voting Hillary won't vote for Obama because he's black.

ummm according to exit polls the white vote went 60% Hillary 40% Obama.

Meanwhile the black vote went 90% Obama 10% Hillary.

And yet we are talking about white voters being racist?

You can't talk about one without talking about the other.

What about the mexinacans?

 

[OREOSpeedwagon]

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
It's sad how racist the black vote has been in this primary.

:roll:

You don't think they are voting based on race when over 90% vote for Obama?

90% of blacks have chosen to embrace Hope.

Good for them. Of course if 90% of whites choose to embrace Experience, there will be a totally different spin put on that.

Obama has 8 years in the Illinois senate + 3 years as a senator. Hillary has 7 years as a senator. First lady doesn't count. But this isn't the thread for this.