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Iranian Revolution in 2022/2026?

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pete6032 said:
Does not the US experience in Iraq and Afghanistan suggest that even if you topple a regime, whatever pops up to replace it will likely not be friendly to the US?
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“If anything in this life is certain, if history has taught us anything, it's that we don't learn from history.” - Michael Corleone
 
Brainonska511 said:
If anything, the US experience in Iraq and Afghanistan shows that the American public lacks the appetite for large-causualty conflict and the resources required to build up a nation in the aftermath. Importantly, this also limits the military's ability to carry out certain operations and leads to these long, low-burn conflicts with no exit strategy. As apolitical as the military wants to be, politics will come for them regardless.
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Any major incident where US lives are lost or has economic impacts it is basically curtains for this admin in terms of political capital. Given their extremely cavalier use of force this is guaranteed to happen sooner or later.
 
So just a week ago signs of progress and positivity in the talks then N'yahoo makes urgent visit to US and upends all that.
 
pete6032 said:
Does not the US experience in Iraq and Afghanistan suggest that even if you topple a regime, whatever pops up to replace it will likely not be friendly to the US?
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A lot of people got rich during that venture. To the ultra wealthy and the greedy, other people’s lives being lost isn’t their problem. Everything Trump does is worth an eye towards enriching himself. He won’t be fighting so any collateral damage isn’t his problem. Add in his cult followers and yes men and you’ve got a deadly combination.
 
amenx said:
So just a week ago signs of progress and positivity in the talks then N'yahoo makes urgent visit to US and upends all that.
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Guessing he threatened to release whatever is left of the bad stuff in the Epstein files that the admin is still hiding/redacting.
 
ivwshane said:
A lot of people got rich during that venture. To the ultra wealthy and the greedy, other people’s lives being lost isn’t their problem. Everything Trump does is worth an eye towards enriching himself. He won’t be fighting so any collateral damage isn’t his problem. Add in his cult followers and yes men and you’ve got a deadly combination.
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Real life Weyland-Yutani.

Halliburton.png


Bomb Iran (1987)
 
amenx said:
So just a week ago signs of progress and positivity in the talks then N'yahoo makes urgent visit to US and upends all that.
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You need to stop listening to whoever made such fictitious claims.
The order to move military personnel, aircraft, and carrier strike groups would have been issued long before that.
US has been preparing to attack Iran since at least new years, if not earlier.

The "talks" were plainly a diversion.
N'yahoo visit was simply to coordinate the final war plans with Trump.
His previous visit is likely when the decision was made to go to war.
 
I don't think Genocidal Benny came here to discuss war plans. If that were the case he and Kegseth would have done it in a signal chat with a WP correspondent in it.
 
I'm assuming they are waiting for the closing ceremony of the Olympics.
That and for the joint Russia/Chinese/Iranian excersize in the straight to conclude (also assuming thats cover for asset transfer and russia and Chinese are collecting data on US assets amassed their)
 
Something major is happening in the wee hours of Monday morning. Don’t know what/where/or how…but something is coming, and Trump will be positively giddy going into his SOTU address.
 
KMFJD said:
https://bsky.app/profile/hindchristopher.bsky.social%2Fpost%2F3mf5knuyssc23
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People at the Pentagon and in the political foreign policy establishment continue to refuse to read theory. As Robert Pape wrote in his book, strategic bombing without any ground follow-up has generally been highly ineffective at achieving any strategic goals. If you want to do things right, you need combined arms warfare; however, there is just about zero political will for that in the US (and honestly, rightfully so); so instead, we have idiots with baseball bats swinging at random hornets' nests thinking there is no way they can lose.
 
Brainonska511 said:
People at the Pentagon and in the political foreign policy establishment continue to refuse to read theory. As Robert Pape wrote in his book, strategic bombing without any ground follow-up has generally been highly ineffective at achieving any strategic goals. If you want to do things right, you need combined arms warfare; however, there is just about zero political will for that in the US (and honestly, rightfully so); so instead, we have idiots with baseball bats swinging at random hornets' nests thinking there is no way they can lose.
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no way they're putting boots on the ground other than special ops and i doubt this will go as they think it will with just a quick bombing and then yelling cease-fire
 
KMFJD said:
no way they're putting boots on the ground other than special ops and i doubt this will go as they think it will with just a quick bombing and then yelling cease-fire
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Of course. And that's another problem that the US Government has - the thinking that "Special Ops" can do it all and it can all somehow be relatively bloodless. The moment a real industrialized conflict breaks out is the moment Seal Team 6 becomes a splat on the ground during counter-battery fire. The constant focus on special ops (and the sick cult of the operator) causes the foreign policy apparatus to forsake real strategic thinking in favor of listless, tactical-focused, but strategically absent actions because they think those things can all be bloodless operations that won't command much of the American public's attention or draw us into a larger conflagration.
 
btw, has anyone seen the conditions that israel want's Iran to accept-

The US proposal reportedly includes a suspension of uranium enrichment for three to five years and the removal of 450kg (992 pounds) of highly enriched uranium from the country, according to the Axios report.

Netanyahu, however, is pushing to expand the scope of any potential deal to include impossible conditions for Tehran, such as curbing its ballistic missile programme and severing ties with regional proxies.

Mohannad Mustafa, an expert on Israeli affairs, told Al Jazeera Arabic channel that Israel’s insistence on broadening the terms is a calculated move to ensure diplomacy fails.

“Israel knows Iran will not accept these conditions,” Mustafa said. “By placing them, Israel is saying its only option is war. The current government has moved beyond using military force to achieve political settlements; war has become the goal itself.”

The renewed focus on Iran’s nuclear capabilities has also reignited debate over Western double standards regarding Israel’s undeclared nuclear arsenal.

“Israel possesses 200 nuclear warheads and is one of the strongest military powers in the world,” Barghouti said, dismissing the narrative that Israel faces an existential threat from Iran.

www.aljazeera.com

Trump and Netanyahu align on Iran pressure but split on endgame

Trump, Netanyahu agree to sanction Iranian oil; analysts say Israel is pushing for war to cover West Bank annexation.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
 
KMFJD said:
btw, has anyone seen the conditions that israel want's Iran to accept-

The US proposal reportedly includes a suspension of uranium enrichment for three to five years and the removal of 450kg (992 pounds) of highly enriched uranium from the country, according to the Axios report.

Netanyahu, however, is pushing to expand the scope of any potential deal to include impossible conditions for Tehran, such as curbing its ballistic missile programme and severing ties with regional proxies.

Mohannad Mustafa, an expert on Israeli affairs, told Al Jazeera Arabic channel that Israel’s insistence on broadening the terms is a calculated move to ensure diplomacy fails.

“Israel knows Iran will not accept these conditions,” Mustafa said. “By placing them, Israel is saying its only option is war. The current government has moved beyond using military force to achieve political settlements; war has become the goal itself.”

The renewed focus on Iran’s nuclear capabilities has also reignited debate over Western double standards regarding Israel’s undeclared nuclear arsenal.

“Israel possesses 200 nuclear warheads and is one of the strongest military powers in the world,” Barghouti said, dismissing the narrative that Israel faces an existential threat from Iran.

www.aljazeera.com

Trump and Netanyahu align on Iran pressure but split on endgame

Trump, Netanyahu agree to sanction Iranian oil; analysts say Israel is pushing for war to cover West Bank annexation.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
Click to expand...
Of course, this is their exact MO.

The Israelis are war hungry genocidal maniacs who love blood. They have zero interest in peace and have corrupted the west, especially the US, with their disgusting agenda, and looted our country, to become a powerful and modern military force. Being part of the axis of evil takes work, and they put in the work.
 
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