Iranian Revolution in 2022/2026?

[SteveGrabowski]

"just overthrow the government and demand democratic open and free elections"
That sounds easy to say but much harder to do when the population is almost all unarmed as well. How likely do you think an overthrow of the gov't would work in the USA when lots of people are actually armed? Highly unlikely in the US...even less so in Iran when only the gov't has the guns.

Anywhere in the world, revolutions usually work when there's a strong unifying force. In THIS case it happens to be the Shah's son (no one else has stepped forward). I fully support his involvement based on what I've seen, read, and hear from people inside and outside Iran, and hope they get the regime change and transition to a more democratic (or at least less oppressive) gov't they wish for.

So do all the hard part (overthrowing the government) and then put the Iranian equivalent to Don Jr in charge? Fucking brilliant. Unifying force ROFL. Get rid of one pos dictator to replace with another cockroach.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

I never said they want the Shah back as defacto ruler...just as a stepping stone. And he has said as much as I mentioned in my earlier post.

Who's the better option then if you think the Shah's son is such a terrible option?
More importantly, has there been ANYONE else who has stepped forward to provide a guiding force for the protests?

You sound just like an American wanting to apply the great man theory to everything. Especially strange when the great man is a totalitarian piece of shit. I guess Canada gets the same neoliberal indoctrination we get in the states where we can't do shit, we need some daddy figure to swoop in from above and save the day. So do you guys worship billionaires the same way Americans do?

 

[thilanliyan]

You sound just like an American wanting to apply the great man theory to everything. Especially strange when the great man is a totalitarian piece of shit. I guess Canada gets the same neoliberal indoctrination we get in the states where we can't do shit, we need some daddy figure to swoop in from above and save the day. So do you guys worship billionaires the same way Americans do?

What's your solution then? "Just overthrow the gov't" like was suggested earlier? (so easy to say)
How many revolutions do you know of that succeeded without a unifying figure?

Heck even even in democracies there's usually a unifying figure in the party (e.g. the GOP rallied around Trump in 2016 and 2024, Obama in 2008/2012). (Dems missing that atm actually)

 

[thilanliyan]

Might as well just put Don Jr in charge of Iran then

You equating the cokehead Don Jr to the Shah's son is laughable. Go and speak to a variety of Iranians, I think you'll have a different opinion of him and his family. As I said earlier, he's not the perfect choice but there aren't any other options atm.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

You equating the cokehead Don Jr to the Shah's son is laughable. Go and speak to a variety of Iranians, I think you'll have a different opinion of him and his family. As I said earlier, he's not the perfect choice but there aren't any other options atm.

Both dipshit sons of hated dictators. You're likely talking to a biased sample of people from rich families who fled Iran when the shah was toppled. Like most of the Persians I knew when I lived in LA. It would be like me going and having lunch at Versailles in Miami and then based on talking to that sample of people saying oh yeah Americans love Trump. It's lunacy to think installing a dictator who claims to love democracy (oh where have I heard this one before?) is a good solution. No I don't want to see Iranians trading in one boot for another just because the second one is good for white people in the west.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

What's your solution then? "Just overthrow the gov't" like was suggested earlier? (so easy to say)
How many revolutions do you know of that succeeded without a unifying figure?

Heck even even in democracies there's usually a unifying figure in the party (e.g. the GOP rallied around Trump in 2016 and 2024, Obama in 2008/2012). (Dems missing that atm actually)

Sometimes you have one like Castro. Sometimes you don't like 1917 Russia or more recently, Tunisia. LOL calling the US a democracy.

 

[amenx]

Iranians in the West are not representative of those in Iran. One thing they have in common (with protesters) is the removal of current regime. Not a return of a monarch who might have the same dictatorial powers of his father.

Then there is still a sizable bunch of regime supporters. So even if the regime is ousted, it doesnt mean smooth sailng ahead. It could mean civil war.

Israel knows this (the US too dumb to figure it out). Because if the regime was gone, its replacement, even if a moderate or secular govt, will not likely pander to Israeli whims or conditions. Israel in the eyes of the people of Iran is just as evil an entity as it ever was. So any future Iranian govt that comes will not likely be friendly to it. Therefore Israel and its operatives on the ground may try their hardest to stoke a civil war.

If a civil war should unfold, it will likely result in a very weakened Iran that will not be able to do much about Israels expansionist goals and adventurism in the region, including taking over all of Syria or parts of Lebanon. I think thats what Israel is banking on: for Iran to plunge into continual turmoil where its priorities are focused more inwards than out.

 

[thilanliyan]

Both dipshit sons of hated dictators. You're likely talking to a biased sample of people from rich families who fled Iran when the shah was toppled. Like most of the Persians I knew when I lived in LA. It would be like me going and having lunch at Versailles in Miami and then based on talking to that sample of people saying oh yeah Americans love Trump. It's lunacy to think installing a dictator who claims to love democracy (oh where have I heard this one before?) is a good solution. No I don't want to see Iranians trading in one boot for another just because the second one is good for white people in the west.

No, most of the Persians I speak to left Iran in the last 3-10 years, plus there's a few I speak to who still live in Iran. They are not the rich elite by any means. As I mentioned previously our impression of the Shah is from what I gather not entirely correct (which was for me mostly based on western media reporting on parties, excessive spending, CIA connections, etc). Him and his family (especially his wife) were a modernizing force (not without faults of course). From the people I know/speak to, they almost universally hate the current regime who they describe as a kleptocracy.

 

[thilanliyan]

Iranians in the West are not representative of those in Iran. One thing they have in common (with protesters) is the removal of current regime. Not a return of a monarch who might have the same dictatorial powers of his father.

Then there is still a sizable bunch of regime supporters. So even if the regime is ousted, it doesnt mean smooth sailng ahead. It could mean civil war.

Israel knows this (the US too dumb to figure it out). Because if the regime was gone, its replacement, even if a moderate or secular govt, will not likely pander to Israeli whims or conditions. Israel in the eyes of the people of Iran is just as evil an entity as it ever was. So any future Iranian govt that comes will not likely be friendly to it. Therefore Israel and its operatives on the ground may try their hardest to stoke a civil war.

If a civil war should unfold, it will likely result in a very weakened Iran that will not be able to do much about Israels expansionist goals and adventurism in the region, including taking over all of Syria or parts of Lebanon. I think thats what Israel is banking on: for Iran to plunge into continual turmoil where its priorities are focused more inwards than out.

Yes the Iranians outside Iran and the ones inside almost universally don't want the current regime. However, they are not wishing for a return to a monarch, he is viewed as a stopgap and a unifying force. AGAIN, revolutions almost always need a guiding figure, he happens to be one in this case.

And I've asked this several times already, WHO else is a better option?? No one has yet provided a better option.

I very much agree with you that the downfall of this regime could lead to civil war, and this point I've made to the Iranians I speak to. I tell them that what comes after may not be better than what they have now. Their response is that 90% of the population hate this regime and want them out, and they are willing to risk asking the Shah's son to lead this revolution (TEMPORARILY).

I would argue that if there ISN'T a unifying leader for the people against the regime, that is more likely to lead to civil war as different people vie for power.

 

[thilanliyan]

Sometimes you have one like Castro. Sometimes you don't like 1917 Russia or more recently, Tunisia. LOL calling the US a democracy.

What's your solution to overthrowing the regime then?

 

[SteveGrabowski]

What's your solution to overthrowing the regime then?

Best chance is probably the military turning on the regime.