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Iranian Revolution in 2022/2026?

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All China has to do is blockade an island. In its own backyard.
There is no force on this planet that can stop that. Especially when Trump has repeatedly told Taiwan to fuck off, they are on their own.
 
Jaskalas said:
All China has to do is blockade an island. In its own backyard.
There is no force on this planet that can stop that. Especially when Trump has repeatedly told Taiwan to fuck off, they are on their own.
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I don't think a naval blockade of Taiwan is as easy as you think it might be.
 
nvm...missread that

but along your lines of thinking, i don't think it's as easy to resupply Taiwan as people make it sound either
 
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Jaskalas said:
All China has to do is blockade an island. In its own backyard.
There is no force on this planet that can stop that. Especially when Trump has repeatedly told Taiwan to fuck off, they are on their own.
Click to expand...
That’s not really all they have to do, at all.

This reminds me of US lawmakers thinking that invading and occupying places would be so easy - exact same level of hubris.

Also the idea that China would be able to take Taiwan’s chip manufacturing intact or even remotely intact seems…highly unlikely.
 
fskimospy said:
That’s not really all they have to do, at all.

This reminds me of US lawmakers thinking that invading and occupying places would be so easy - exact same level of hubris.

Also the idea that China would be able to take Taiwan’s chip manufacturing intact or even remotely intact seems…highly unlikely.
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Keeping it from the rest of the world would be the goal.
China can make its own chips, and have enough left over for its allies.

And I don't see how starving out a tiny island isn't a near automatic win.
Sure, after a few months there may be a naval force attempting to break through. But they have to cross an entire ocean. China has to travel a few hundred miles. They'd have plenty of time to lay mines/drones in the ocean. Modern warfare favors mass production, not large set pieces. Existing navies will fail this test. Same way they had to FLEE from a few rebels in Yemen. That was child's play, China would be something else entirely.
 
Jaskalas said:
Keeping it from the rest of the world would be the goal.
China can make its own chips, and have enough left over for its allies.

And I don't see how starving out a tiny island isn't a near automatic win.
Sure, after a few months there may be a naval force attempting to break through. But they have to cross an entire ocean. China has to travel a few hundred miles. They'd have plenty of time to lay mines/drones in the ocean. Modern warfare favors mass production, not large set pieces. Existing navies will fail this test. Same way they had to FLEE from a few rebels in Yemen. That was child's play, China would be something else entirely.
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China can not make the same chips Taiwan makes, no.

Like I said you’re displaying the same hubris the US did.
 
home to uranium enrichment, undisclosed bombs/ballastics etc.....you know everything they say Iran has without much proof, but they're ok to hold these same weapons because they are mighty jewish warriors or something and would never harm peaceful people
 
KMFJD said:
home to uranium enrichment, undisclosed bombs/ballastics etc.....you know everything they say Iran has without much proof, but they're ok to hold these same weapons because they are mighty jewish warriors or something and would never harm peaceful people
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We cannot put that genie back in the bottle without risking nuclear conflict.
That's the risk for those without nuclear weapons, it remains open season on all of them. As Ukraine painfully learns every day for the past 4 years.
 
KMFJD said:
no, but they can make the transportation logistics a pita if push comes to shove, this isn't the 1990's
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Which part? Getting things into or off of Taiwan? Sure. Getting allied military assets into theater to respond? Not so much.

There are more than enough bases close enough to prevent that from happening. And China doesn't have near enough power to project force to a distance that would change that dynamic. Their capabilities are very theoretical and almost completely unproven in any kind of real conflict.
 
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