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Iranian Revolution in 2022/2026?

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KMFJD said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/2024482924096057755

lol wtf is this? the UK has a backbone?
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Sadly the UK (well Starmer) still have no backbone. Deeply unpopular Starmer only doing this for public consumption to 'appear' to have integrity and statesmanship while supporting the US behind the scenes. The US will strike Iran like they did in 2025 from those bases by not 'officially' informing the UK of their intent to do so, basically a 'fait accompli'.
 
DZero said:
The issue is taking down the whole suit, if the army is alive, is likely to expand the war to the whole gulf. Even some mad man might go and destroy La Meca.
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What could go wrong from toppling the legitimate government with no replacement to slot in, and weapons of various sorts left lying around the country held by people no longer receiving their salaries... It's too bad we don't have any recent examples from the real world.
 
Brainonska511 said:
What could go wrong from toppling the legitimate government with no replacement to slot in, and weapons of various sorts left lying around the country held by people no longer receiving their salaries... It's too bad we don't have any recent examples from the real world.
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That's the issue. Trump thinks that taking down the Ayatolah without plan B would win, but this time... it won't be that easy
 
DZero said:
The issue is taking down the whole suit, if the army is alive, is likely to expand the war to the whole gulf. Even some mad man might go and destroy La Meca.
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no, they (Iran) have already stated that if you attack us, the rest of the middle east comprador regimes will be targeted as well (i hope @igor_kavinski is out of the UAE)
 
If the Iranians really wanted to punish Trump (and the US), they could take out the oil infrastructure in the region and collapse the world and US economies in the process. Of course this wont win them any sympathy, but Trump will be viewed as the most reviled cvnt on the planet by all countries (cept Israel). It would alter world geopolitics on a grand scale for a long time.
 
amenx said:
If the Iranians really wanted to punish Trump (and the US), they could take out the oil infrastructure in the region and collapse the world and US economies in the process. Of course this wont win them any sympathy, but Trump will be viewed as the most reviled cvnt on the planet by all countries (cept Israel). It would alter world geopolitics on a grand scale for a long time.
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If the US pulls the chain on a 2003 Iraq style air campaign the regime will hit the big button that sends their copious amounts of shorter range ballistic missiles hurtling into all the important O&G infra of their US backed neighbors and into US bases.
 
K1052 said:
If the US pulls the chain on a 2003 Iraq style air campaign the regime will hit the big button that sends their copious amounts of shorter range ballistic missiles hurtling into all the important O&G infra of their US backed neighbors and into US bases.
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yeah, they've explicitly stated this
 
K1052 said:
If the US pulls the chain on a 2003 Iraq style air campaign the regime will hit the big button that sends their copious amounts of shorter range ballistic missiles hurtling into all the important O&G infra of their US backed neighbors and into US bases.
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DZero said:
Worse than that, they literally will make a oil blockade and goodbye USD 50 oil barrell, welcome USD 250 ones.
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So what you are saying is... Trump will single handedly SAVE the Russian economy.
Trump's actions will dramatically help fund and revitalize Russia's war machine through a massive oil bankroll.
Might even force Europeans to beg for Russian supplies, if the Middle East collapses and can no longer deliver.

Gee, I wonder what the odds are of Trump choosing to do everything in his power to help Russia.
 
US military buildup continues.
NOTAM data suggests US strikes could begin as early as tonight. Though they may be used for other reasons.

Sofia airport to close for civilian flights as US military planes stage in Bulgaria​

Bulgaria's Sofia International Airport will close to all civilian air traffic twice this weekend, as a growing fleet of American military aircraft stages at the facility in what observers say is part of the largest US air force deployment to Europe and the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.​
​
According to flight data published by FlightRadar24, the airport will suspend non-military operations on Feb. 23 from 01:15 to 02:50 and again on February 24 from 01:05 to 03:35. Only military flights will be permitted during those windows, the Bulgarian investigative outlet Obektivno.BG reported after verifying the Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) data.​
 
Jaskalas said:
So what you are saying is... Trump will single handedly SAVE the Russian economy.
Trump's actions will dramatically help fund and revitalize Russia's war machine through a massive oil bankroll.
Might even force Europeans to beg for Russian supplies, if the Middle East collapses and can no longer deliver.

Gee, I wonder what the odds are of Trump choosing to do everything in his power to help Russia.
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Worse... USA would BLOCK europeans by saying "Leave Greenland AND Iceland to US and we will give oil" and force the fracture of NATO and EU... that of course is SUICIDAL, Nordics would insta going nuclear AND block the oil they have to the rest of Euros who sides with US and Russia.

The issue? China. If USA makes that move, China would move and block that Russian salvation, it might end really awful for everyone. Heck, India might enter too in that dispute.
 
DZero said:
Worse... USA would BLOCK europeans by saying "Leave Greenland AND Iceland to US and we will give oil" and force the fracture of NATO and EU... that of course is SUICIDAL, Nordics would insta going nuclear AND block the oil they have to the rest of Euros who sides with US and Russia.

The issue? China. If USA makes that move, China would move and block that Russian salvation, it might end really awful for everyone. Heck, India might enter too in that dispute.
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China has been practicing the blockade of Taiwan for a decade at this point. They are ready to seize the opportunity of an unstable world.
The time to prepare for WW3, was yesterday.
 
Jaskalas said:
China has been practicing the blockade of Taiwan for a decade at this point. They are ready to seize the opportunity of an unstable world.
The time to prepare for WW3, was yesterday.
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Indeed, but taking Taiwan now is suicidal, China knows that, they wants the status Quo, but Trump does not want that anymore. This is gonna suck for everyone, even with preparation.
 
DZero said:
Indeed, but taking Taiwan now is suicidal, China knows that, they wants the status Quo, but Trump does not want that anymore. This is gonna suck for everyone, even with preparation.
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Drones win wars.
Drones require chips.
Chips largely come from Taiwan.

Should events play out, the middle east completely destabilize, price of oil sky rockets, USA and Russia tag team Europe into complete destruction.
That IS the time for China to act, while everyone else is busy and can do nothing in response.
 
Jaskalas said:
Drones win wars.
Drones require chips.
Chips largely come from Taiwan.

Should events play out, the middle east completely destabilize, price of oil sky rockets, USA and Russia tag team Europe into complete destruction.
That IS the time for China to act, while everyone else is busy and can do nothing in response.
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That assumption relies on China actually being able to competently execute things. From recent news about top people being sacked in the military, and a general thing where people like to hide bad news from superiors and paint rosy pictures, it seems a little unlikely.
 
Brainonska511 said:
That assumption relies on China actually being able to competently execute things. From recent news about top people being sacked in the military, and a general thing where people like to hide bad news from superiors and paint rosy pictures, it seems a little unlikely.
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Also, China won't go that suicidal. That's the issue. China might win against Taiwan and Japan? yes, but by how much before USA enters with everything?
 
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