A few things to consider when looking at those numbers from Mizuho:
ASML
shipped 10 NXE:3400B machines in 2017 that aren't included in the Mizuho figures. I'm not sure who they went to, but it is highly likely that Intel received at least a couple of them.
TSMC is a lot bigger than Intel. If you look at total equivalent wafer capacity,
they're three times the size of Intel. The Mizuho report is only looking at logic devices on advanced process nodes / 300 mm wafers and attempts to carve out memory, analog, and legacy nodes from the totals. This makes a certain amount of sense in the context of EUV, but some of those machines will be used for memory production. Meanwhile, Intel recently
sold their only fab dedicated to memory to SK hynix.
The total addressable market for PC and x86 server CPUs (what this thread is primarily concerned with) is relatively small, and Intel pretty much never uses their most advanced process for products like chipsets and adjacencies. By my calculation, based on Tiger Lake-U/H and Ice Lake-SP die sizes, Intel only needs around 85 kwpm (60 for client and 25 for data center) on their leading process to satisfy those markets (roughly 220M client and 22M server CPUs). Of course Intel has also lost Apple, the 4th largest PC manufacturer and their sole former modem customer, and continues to cede market share to a highly competitive AMD.
Given Intel's density targets for 7nm, and their desire to put SAQP in the rearview, they will probably need EUV for at least 14 layers. That means
28 machines would be required to produce 100% of their CPUs on 7nm. They won't have that by 2023, but Meteor Lake is also a lead product tentatively scheduled for the second half of 2023, by which time they will have > 15 machines up and running.
In other words, I don't see any problem here. It looks like Intel is securing exactly what they need as far as EUV goes. Of course that doesn't account for 7nm capacity required for discrete GPUs, but if the total quantity shipped ever amounts to more than risk production, Intel will probably use TSMC to manufacture them anyway.