Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

[VirtualLarry]

I think it is a bit odd that they didn't bring more production online earlier.

Didn't BK say that Intel was going to a "server first" methodology, in terms of mfg and process tech, followed by Mobile, followed by Desktop?

Maybe they're selling so many server versions of Skylake-X that their primary production capacity is maxed out doing that?

 

[Glo.]

Just a real-world comment on HOW MUCH the PC market is shrinking, especially at the lower-end - Walmart had a $499.99 Gaming PC from HP in their Black Friday ad. i5-7400, 8GB RAM, 1TB HDD, and a GTX 1060 3GB card. Including Windows 10, I would be hard-pressed to build a custom rig up to that caliber, and be able to deliver it to a customer for $500. (I couldn't, not without going used on parts.)

And yet, at past 6PM on Friday, Walmart's web site was finally showing in-store stock, and nearly every local WM around here still had them in stock. (Remember, BF started Thurs at 6PM. So, 24hours later, and they still had stock of these desktop PCs.)

To say desktop PCs aren't really selling anymore (even budget gaming rigs!) is probably an understatement of the year.

Yes, there is still sales at the "enthusiast level", but these lower/mid-range PCs, and OEM PCs in general, aren't selling much to consumers anymore.

What has been the best selling stuff in BF promotions?

Consoles, TVs, smartphones, tablets, peripherals, accessories for computers. Actual PC's and computer hardware was BEHIND all of this.

But hey, thanks to this I was able to find in my country Corsair Katar and Modecom Lanparty TKL for 50E combined!

 

[Cloudfire777]

AMD couldn’t gain and hold a foothold against Intel when they had a substantial performance lead. And while you’re complaining about Intel just releasing clock speed increases or being “forced by AMD” to up the core count (not true*, by the way), Intel still has the performance lead, is still setting quarterly records, and is still in control of the PC market. Ryzen has been on the market for nearly a year and while it is a fine platform (I own 2), Intel is still raking in cash hand over fist.

*Intel had 8 core Cannonlake on the roadmaps years ago, before anything was known about Ryzen. Had 10 nm worked out, we’d have that and not CFL right now.

The fact that AMD have 6 of the top 10 best sellers for CPUs at Amazon at the moment, while Intel used to have almost all 10 earlier, talks against your beloved Intel Im afraid.

Intel have and will lose a ton of market share in the future and it will impact their R&D, foundry plans, manforce etc etc and you know it (but doesnt want to admit it)

A big tree falls hard

 

[Dayman1225]

Didn't BK say that Intel was going to a "server first" methodology, in terms of mfg and process tech, followed by Mobile, followed by Desktop?

Maybe they're selling so many server versions of Skylake-X that their primary production capacity is maxed out doing that?

Intel expects small percentage shrinkage YoY, at least according to financial out look they do, which is why they're transitioning to a Data Center first company. Most recent results for CCG showed "FLAT" growth which Intel called great results. But yeah I think it is Server -> Mobile -> Desktop. The first Server first node is 10nm ++ with Sapphire Rapids, Falcon mesa etc

 

[IndyColtsFan]

The fact that AMD have 6 of the top 10 best sellers for CPUs at Amazon at the moment, while Intel used to have almost all 10 earlier, talks against your beloved Intel Im afraid.

Intel have and will lose a ton of market share in the future and it will impact their R&D, foundry plans, manforce etc etc and you know it (but doesnt want to admit it)

A big tree falls hard

So now you’re using Amazon sales as your new barometer? Keep trying, and keep watching Intel report quarterly records. You don’t understand how it works - you probably said the same thing back in 2005 and then Intel yawned, stretched, and steamrolled AMD into near oblivion. By the way, why do you suppose Ryzen has 6 of the top 10 in Amazon’s list? I’m sure it has NOTHING to do with the fact that the prices have been cut ridiculously low. If your product is selling like gangbusters, you don’t have to have drastic sales.

BTW, how many recent Intel and AMD rigs do you own? I’d wager to say I own more Ryzen boxes than you do.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

Just a real-world comment on HOW MUCH the PC market is shrinking, especially at the lower-end - Walmart had a $499.99 Gaming PC from HP in their Black Friday ad. i5-7400, 8GB RAM, 1TB HDD, and a GTX 1060 3GB card. Including Windows 10, I would be hard-pressed to build a custom rig up to that caliber, and be able to deliver it to a customer for $500. (I couldn't, not without going used on parts.)

And yet, at past 6PM on Friday, Walmart's web site was finally showing in-store stock, and nearly every local WM around here still had them in stock. (Remember, BF started Thurs at 6PM. So, 24hours later, and they still had stock of these desktop PCs.)

To say desktop PCs aren't really selling anymore (even budget gaming rigs!) is probably an understatement of the year.

Yes, there is still sales at the "enthusiast level", but these lower/mid-range PCs, and OEM PCs in general, aren't selling much to consumers anymore.

Bingo. Enthusiast system sales are still increasing IIRC, but I think even a decent chunk of that is gaming laptops and that’s a small piece of the overall market.

As a sidenote, remember that guy who was here earlier this year claiming that PC sales would explode and set sales records due to all these new multicore CPUs, the software was going to have a “revolution,” and that anyone who disagreed with him had “old” thinking? Yeah, he has been awfully quiet after getting thoroughly owned, hasn’t he?

 

[frozentundra123456]

So now you’re using Amazon sales as your new barometer? Keep trying, and keep watching Intel report quarterly records. You don’t understand how it works - you probably said the same thing back in 2005 and then Intel yawned, stretched, and steamrolled AMD into near oblivion. By the way, why do you suppose Ryzen has 6 of the top 10 in Amazon’s list? I’m sure it has NOTHING to do with the fact that the prices have been cut ridiculously low. If your product is selling like gangbusters, you don’t have to have drastic sales.

BTW, how many recent Intel and AMD rigs do you own? I’d wager to say I own more Ryzen boxes than you do.

DIY sales are a minisclule part of the desktop cpu market, when you consider consumer, educational and enterprise pre-builts. On top of that, laptops sell more that desktops anyway. So I would bet that DIY sales on outlets such as amazon, new egg, etc and only a few percent at most of the total cpu market. I have always said, Ryzen without a dgpu is and always will be a niche product. That said, the main threat to intel is the upcoming APUs built on Ryzen.

The Amazon sales figures also could be affected by the poor supply of CL cpus, which will change shortly, if it has not already.

 

[ViRGE]

You guys need to carefully reread Virge’s post. He is NOT saying Coffee Lake isn’t selling. He is saying that Skylake users aren’t buying them.

Thanks. And yes, that's the point I was trying to make. The people buying CFL don't seem to be doing so to replace Skylake; rather they're replacing Haswell and Sandy/Ivy Bridge. Which is why I question calling it "milking" since Intel's customers aren't buying the same thing over and over again, and Intel doesn't seem to be trying to promote it to current Skylake users anyhow.

Not that anything about Intel's slow progress makes me happy.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Didn't BK say that Intel was going to a "server first" methodology, in terms of mfg and process tech, followed by Mobile, followed by Desktop?

Maybe they're selling so many server versions of Skylake-X that their primary production capacity is maxed out doing that?

Possibly, though I thought Skylake-X was 14nm+ while Coffeelake was 14nm++? Maybe they can produce wafers with either or from the same fab?

 

[Lovec1990]

Does anybody has any idea is CannonLake mobile only and we are waiting for IceLake for desktop or will both be for desktop and can we expect Cannon Lake in 2018 and icelake in 2019?

 

[phillyman36]

Does anybody has any idea is CannonLake mobile only and we are waiting for IceLake for desktop or will both be for desktop and can we expect Cannon Lake in 2018 and icelake in 2019?

Would like to know as well. I'm a little confused. Is the z390 supposed to be for a 8c Coffee Lake cpu coming in 2018 then we also get a Ice lake cpu with a z400 chipset in 2018?

 

[IndyColtsFan]

DIY sales are a minisclule part of the desktop cpu market, when you consider consumer, educational and enterprise pre-builts. On top of that, laptops sell more that desktops anyway. So I would bet that DIY sales on outlets such as amazon, new egg, etc and only a few percent at most of the total cpu market. I have always said, Ryzen without a dgpu is and always will be a niche product. That said, the main threat to intel is the upcoming APUs built on Ryzen.

The Amazon sales figures also could be affected by the poor supply of CL cpus, which will change shortly, if it has not already.

Exactly. Corporate sales are still the large driver in PC sales, and AMD has made little inroads there and without an integrated GPU, they won’t make a dent. With that being said, I hope they do make progress once they release the Ryzen Pro (is that the model with integrated GPU?), but corporate America has staunchly been an Intel customer and I am not sure that will change.

 

[jpiniero]

Would like to know as well. I'm a little confused. Is the z390 supposed to be for a 8c Coffee Lake cpu coming in 2018 then we also get a Ice lake cpu with a z400 chipset in 2018?

I suppose Intel could release more Coffee Lake desktop (including the 8C) in Q4 2018 and then Icelake desktop a year later.

 

[Cloudfire777]

So now you’re using Amazon sales as your new barometer? Keep trying, and keep watching Intel report quarterly records. You don’t understand how it works - you probably said the same thing back in 2005 and then Intel yawned, stretched, and steamrolled AMD into near oblivion. By the way, why do you suppose Ryzen has 6 of the top 10 in Amazon’s list? I’m sure it has NOTHING to do with the fact that the prices have been cut ridiculously low. If your product is selling like gangbusters, you don’t have to have drastic sales.

BTW, how many recent Intel and AMD rigs do you own? I’d wager to say I own more Ryzen boxes than you do.

Of course does the Amazon sales give an indication of how a product sell against the competition.

And since you seem to understand it all but seem to need a little help anyway:
Ryzen was in that list before the price cuts was made.
And AMD are cutting price because they are removing inventory to get ready to start selling Zen+ based on 12nm. That should give Intel another level of competition.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

Of course does the Amazon sales give an indication of how a product sell against the competition.

And since you seem to understand it all but seem to need a little help anyway:
Ryzen was in that list before the price cuts was made.
And AMD are cutting price because they are removing inventory to get ready to start selling Zen+ based on 12nm. That should give Intel another level of competition.

Ryzen has had repeated price cuts for months now, not just recently. I know because I bought my 1700X over the summer when I found a good deal.

Amazon is a very incomplete barometer of processor sales. It ignores the huge enterprise, educational, and prebuilt markets, where Intel not only dominates, but is nearly a monopoly at this stage. AMD has nowhere to go but up in those markets but likely won't make serious inroads.

 

[mikk]

Time to "revive" this thread a bit

https://www.anandtech.com/show/1207...on-processor-lists-leaked-coffee-lake-refresh

With mad speculation people seem to think 9000 series = Coffee lake refresh (which is fine since details are non existent) but @FanlessTech claim otherwise :

"I fear that they're not trying to avoid confusion unfortunately. The 9th Gen is Ice Lake by the way (saw the proof)"

I wonder why is there no i7 9th Gen in this list. With 8C Coffeelake rumors Intels direction is unclear at the moment.

 

[Dayman1225]

I wonder why is there no i7 9th Gen in this list. With 8C Coffeelake rumors Intels direction is unclear at the moment.

I feel like this is just some sort of guerrilla marketing, leak it on purpose getting people to wait. So we have to wait, like usual.

 

[Yeroon]

I did come to this thread to see if there was any new info about the cpus in the title. Since this entire page (and the previous) are completely void of anything of the sort, I figure I'll continue the sidetrack.

As a sidenote, remember that guy who was here earlier this year claiming that PC sales would explode and set sales records due to all these new multicore CPUs, the software was going to have a “revolution,” and that anyone who disagreed with him had “old” thinking? Yeah, he has been awfully quiet after getting thoroughly owned, hasn’t he?

Consider that the 7700K launched this year, and was the best mainstream chip you could get, which was only a slight improvement over the previous 2 crown holders of the last 4 years (6700k, 4770K). It now trades spots with i5s and AMD R5s depending on metric, and its not even a year old.
You can say intel had cannon lake 8 cores on the map for years, yet ultimately that matters nought, since they have failed to deliver that even now, and I'm sure some people at intel are in hot water over that with regards to how this year has played out.

If it wasn't for the insane increase in dram prices due to shortages and gpu inflation thanks to mining, I'd say it would be an exceptional year to build a new computer. AMD has brought high core counts up for those aiming to do some (or a lot with TR) production work, and still do a decent job gaming to a new price point (both mainstream with the R5 + R7, as well as the TR 12/16 cores), Intels response to TR by adding the HCC dies to HEDT (and cutting the price per core to nearly half of last gen to compete), as well as intels fast-tracking the CFL launch to try and compete at a core count battle - at a reasonable price if it was MSRP - all hindered by the fact any reasons to upgrade means being gouged for ram at the minimum, possibly the GPU too if you've been holding back there. That alone has probably helped the 6c CFL launch not be a nearly paper-like one - imagine demand if ram was a good buy right now?

Even now, with RR making 4c/8t + decent GPU improving laptop core counts, and intel finally doing the same 4c/8t for the low power i7 line laptop chips, the revolution of cores continues on the laptop front. Software will always have a delay, but you can be sure after this year, attempts to go wide will be a priority now, more then it has in a long time.

 

[IntelUser2000]

Does anybody has any idea is CannonLake mobile only and we are waiting for IceLake for desktop or will both be for desktop and can we expect Cannon Lake in 2018 and icelake in 2019?

Cannonlake is only for mobile, and low power parts, if that.

Coffeelake desktop is being expanded in 2018, so it'll be redundant if they released Cannonlake based parts as well. As long as they are doing that, the one after Coffeelake is Icelake on the desktop.

 

[DrMrLordX]

I feel like this is just some sort of guerrilla marketing, leak it on purpose getting people to wait. So we have to wait, like usual.

Right, no launch dates cited on the 9xxx parts. Whatever they are.

Though from watching the process tech evolve at a snail's pace, we already knew that there would be a lot of waiting in store for Icelake.

 

[John Carmack]

I feel like this is just some sort of guerrilla marketing, leak it on purpose getting people to wait. So we have to wait, like usual.

I have to think that it is. From the AT story about the Coffee Lake stack leak:

Officially, Intel does not comment on unreleased products

Funny thing to say with how much information about the Z270/X299 mainstream and HEDT lines was revealed well ahead of release by Intel themselves... I also thought AT didn't comment or post stories about rumors.

 

[Bouowmx]

Additional speculation from someone with industry contacts (David Schor, WikiChip): https://fuse.wikichip.org/news/484/8th-gen-coffee-lake-and-9th-gen-lineup/

9th generation Core is Ice Lake. Core i3 has 4 cores, i5 has 6, and i7 has 8, all with Hyper-threading.

 

[VirtualLarry]

9th generation Core is Ice Lake. Core i3 has 4 cores, i5 has 6, and i7 has 8, all with Hyper-threading.

If true, then I really hope that Intel improves their HT implementations, as Ryzen's SMT seems to be a much greater efficiency improvement compared to Intel's HT, as far as performance gained when it is enabled.

I've heard tell that Intel's HT is approx. equivalent to 25% of a CPU core, (so 4C/8T == 5C), but Ryzen's SMT is more like 30-35% of a CPU core.

I've also heard, that although IPC may be lower in current apps, the Zen architecture is actually "wider" than Intel's Core architecture.

 

[coercitiv]

If true, then I really hope that Intel improves their HT implementations, as Ryzen's SMT seems to be a much greater efficiency improvement compared to Intel's HT, as far as performance gained when it is enabled.

I've heard tell that Intel's HT is approx. equivalent to 25% of a CPU core, (so 4C/8T == 5C), but Ryzen's SMT is more like 30-35% of a CPU core.

I've also heard, that although IPC may be lower in current apps, the Zen architecture is actually "wider" than Intel's Core architecture.

Since when has HT performance become more desirable than ST performance and efficiency? HT has one clear goal, and that is to extract every bit of MT efficiency possible from a single piece of silicon. It cannot be judged independently, and should only be compared in the context of core vs. core performance at similar power levels. Ideally you want to somehow manage widening the core while maintaining the same level of HT efficiency, since that usually means your ST efficiency has gone up.

Hoping Intel's approach of extracting MT efficiency becomes more HT oriented and thus similar to AMDs is like expressing desire for AMD to adopt a mesh-like bus with localized L2 cache. Both companies have different ways of chip scaling and approaching improved perf & efficiency in the server space. We should be happy they have taken different paths as exploration is usually a good ingredient for evolution.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Since when has HT performance become more desirable than ST performance and efficiency?

For MT loads? Such as Distributed Computing?