I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[ivwshane]

Edited.

The word that doesn’t make sense is “precipitously” as one point drop would hardly be called steep decline. In fact as the race gets closer to finishing it is typical that the race gets tighter. Now if he dropped five points? Yeah, that’s a steep drop, at three points you might be pushing it and I probably wouldn’t have given it any thought but a little more than a point drop? Not a big deal.

 

[linkgoron]

According to fivethirtyeight, Biden’s national polling lead has fallen precipitously over the last few days from 10.7 to 9.2.

Nate Silver has stated that they removed old polls after the debate, so it made it look like a sudden drop.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1320037016868970496

and

https://twitter.com/x/status/1320038629016801281

 

[ivwshane]

Nate Silver has stated that they removed old polls after the debate, so it made it look like a sudden drop.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1320037016868970496

and

https://twitter.com/x/status/1320038629016801281

Thank you. Hopefully this will calm some nerves.

 

[DisarmedDespot]

Thank you. Hopefully this will calm some nerves.

I understand not wanting a repeat of 2016, but WAY too many people here panic at a moment's notice.

 

[ivwshane]

I understand not wanting a repeat of 2016, but WAY too many people here panic at a moment's notice.

It’s been a pretty shitty year universally and I can understand why their level of anxiety is up. Trump is like the straw that broke the camels back and I feel lost of the country wants to tell the guy, just shut the the fuck up!

 

[Roger Wilco]

The word that doesn’t make sense is “precipitously” as one point drop would hardly be called steep decline. In fact as the race gets closer to finishing it is typical that the race gets tighter. Now if he dropped five points? Yeah, that’s a steep drop, at three points you might be pushing it and I probably wouldn’t have given it any thought but a little more than a point drop? Not a big deal.

I noticed that Biden’s lead fell by about 15% (10.7 to 9.2) in just a few days, so that concerned me. I am not trying to be an alarmist or anything; I’m just trying to learn how to read the data and not freak out.

 

[sportage]

The number one conclusion that I will take from this election is not so much Trump or Biden but where America itself stands. I really need to know if America has permanently gone over to the dark side, or what? Is this the new America that is so self centered and so selfish that protecting the planet no longer matters? Pollute and destroy what we have and let the kids of tomorrow worry about fixing it? And where a simple thing like wearing a mask is not thought of as protecting others, but instead as inconveniencing ones self? Some of them you can call ignorant and uneducated, others you can call spoiled selfish brats. However, all of them you can call as Donald Trump's base. Ignorance loves Donald Trump, laziness loves Donald Trump, spoiled brats love Donald Trump. My question is, have they now become our main stream America? We shall see in a few days.....

 

[gothuevos]

What's everyone's take on Biden's camp pushing into Texas and Georgia this week, and Trump visiting the NE area and pulling all adds from the rust belt a few weeks ago?

Obviously both camps' internal polling is telling them something, just interesting how they seem to be at opposite ends. I know most people say Trump is just low on cash and had to pull out of the rust belt, but what if internal polling showed him doing really well there and they pulled out for that reason instead? I still think he may surprise in either WI and/or MN.

Feels like a mistake for Biden and the Dems to ignore/take for granted the rust belt again and instead campaign in long shot Texas and Georgia. Yes, I know the "polls" are close but let's be real, it's not happening this election cycle. Feels like 2016 missteps are happening all over again.

 

[K1052]

What's everyone's take on Biden's camp pushing into Texas and Georgia this week, and Trump visiting the NE area and pulling all adds from the rust belt a few weeks ago?

Obviously both camps' internal polling is telling them something, just interesting how they seem to be at opposite ends. I know most people say Trump is just low on cash and had to pull out of the rust belt, but what if internal polling showed him doing really well there and they pulled out for that reason instead? I still think he may surprise in either WI and/or MN.

Feels like a mistake for Biden and the Dems to ignore/take for granted the rust belt again and instead campaign in long shot Texas and Georgia. Yes, I know the "polls" are close but let's be real, it's not happening this election cycle. Feels like 2016 missteps are happening all over again.

I mean other than lavishing attention and campaign spending that dwarfs Trump's in the rust belt as much as 3:1 in some spots is pretty much ignoring it I guess. Biden has practically taken up residency in PA this cycle.

Trump could always win but pretending this election is a carbon copy of 2016 is just pure fantasy.

 

[brycejones]

What's everyone's take on Biden's camp pushing into Texas and Georgia this week, and Trump visiting the NE area and pulling all adds from the rust belt a few weeks ago?

Obviously both camps' internal polling is telling them something, just interesting how they seem to be at opposite ends. I know most people say Trump is just low on cash and had to pull out of the rust belt, but what if internal polling showed him doing really well there and they pulled out for that reason instead? I still think he may surprise in either WI and/or MN.

Feels like a mistake for Biden and the Dems to ignore/take for granted the rust belt again and instead campaign in long shot Texas and Georgia. Yes, I know the "polls" are close but let's be real, it's not happening this election cycle. Feels like 2016 missteps are happening all over again.

How specifically are the Democrats taking the rust belt for granted? Please show your work.

 

[ewdotson]

I mean, the Bidens were in Pennsylvania Saturday.

 

[Thump553]

Given what happened in 2016 (yet another minority win GOP Pres, by the slimmest of margins too boot), how Trump has skated by scandals that would destroy anyone else, how much support he still has despite horrendous performance, etc., his constant railing against the election process itself, etc., it is hard not to be nervous until this is over.

Personally I'm expecting (but not liking) the inevitable narrowing of polls as election approaches. I'm also expecting election day poll turnout to be skewed GOP because of COVID deniers but given a last minute steal of the election process by Trump's newly stacked Supreme Court, I remain cautiously optimistic.

 

[eelw]

What's everyone's take on Biden's camp pushing into Texas and Georgia this week, and Trump visiting the NE area and pulling all adds from the rust belt a few weeks ago?

Obviously both camps' internal polling is telling them something, just interesting how they seem to be at opposite ends. I know most people say Trump is just low on cash and had to pull out of the rust belt, but what if internal polling showed him doing really well there and they pulled out for that reason instead? I still think he may surprise in either WI and/or MN.

Feels like a mistake for Biden and the Dems to ignore/take for granted the rust belt again and instead campaign in long shot Texas and Georgia. Yes, I know the "polls" are close but let's be real, it's not happening this election cycle. Feels like 2016 missteps are happening all over again.

But the thing is, at this point do people who goto rallies even need convincing? That small slice of undecided are not this MAGA or this drive thru crowd. They have already chosen or even voted.

People knew they hated Hillary in the last weeks of the election. So her not going to visit their state, doubt it made a huge difference.

 

[Indus]

Given what happened in 2016 (yet another minority win GOP Pres, by the slimmest of margins too boot), how Trump has skated by scandals that would destroy anyone else, how much support he still has despite horrendous performance, etc., his constant railing against the election process itself, etc., it is hard not to be nervous until this is over.

Personally I'm expecting (but not liking) the inevitable narrowing of polls as election approaches. I'm also expecting election day poll turnout to be skewed GOP because of COVID deniers but given a last minute steal of the election process by Trump's newly stacked Supreme Court, I remain cautiously optimistic.

Was talking to a friend who lives in a very Trumpy part of the state and asked her if she had done early voting.. she said no she lives in a Trumpanzee area so she's afraid of her early ballot being thrown in the trash so she'll do the long queues on nov 3.

 

[Indus]

The number one conclusion that I will take from this election is not so much Trump or Biden but where America itself stands. I really need to know if America has permanently gone over to the dark side, or what? Is this the new America that is so self centered and so selfish that protecting the planet no longer matters? Pollute and destroy what we have and let the kids of tomorrow worry about fixing it? And where a simple thing like wearing a mask is not thought of as protecting others, but instead as inconveniencing ones self? Some of them you can call ignorant and uneducated, others you can call spoiled selfish brats. However, all of them you can call as Donald Trump's base. Ignorance loves Donald Trump, laziness loves Donald Trump, spoiled brats love Donald Trump. My question is, have they now become our main stream America? We shall see in a few days.....

It may or may not be main stream but it's a quite a big unhealthy niche of it.

 

[K1052]

I mean, the Bidens were in Pennsylvania Saturday.

WhY iS bIDeN IgnOriNG tHe StATes HilLaRy lOsT tHo?

 

[alexruiz]

I mean, the Bidens were in Pennsylvania Saturday.

In my adoptive state of Michigan Joe and/or surrogates have been here often also.
Furthermore, there are more ads for him on TV than ads for the cheeto.

 

[K1052]

He's in PA again today and just said that he's going to Iowa, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Florida (at least).

 

[gothuevos]

The whole "George" gaffe...even with the explanation and NBC's apologies, still not a flattering look for Biden. All while Trump hosts 3 rallies a day and Biden puts a lid on the day early.
Does it make one a better/worse candidate? Who knows, but it sure is how you win the optics game.

 

[fskimospy]

The whole "George" gaffe...even with the explanation and NBC's apologies, still not a flattering look for Biden. All while Trump hosts 3 rallies a day and Biden puts a lid on the day early.
Does it make one a better/worse candidate? Who knows, but it sure is how you win the optics game.

The more people see of Trump the less they like him. The more rallies he does the more support he loses.

 

[Zorba]

The whole "George" gaffe...even with the explanation and NBC's apologies, still not a flattering look for Biden. All while Trump hosts 3 rallies a day and Biden puts a lid on the day early.
Does it make one a better/worse candidate? Who knows, but it sure is how you win the optics game.

Oh noes one gaffe!!!

Trump has so many gaffes per sentence there is no way to even document them all.

 

[gothuevos]

The more people see of Trump the less they like him. The more rallies he does the more support he loses.

Not sure about that...the enthusiasm at his rallies (from what we can see) is off the charts. People flock to see him even in Democratic strongholds. Rallies through Beverly Hills for crying out loud.

I'm not saying this one gaffe makes him senile. But man, the GOP knows optics. This, plus abrupt comments about ending oil, "I meant no fracking on FEDERAL lands," etc are all death by a thousand cuts and how you blow a 4th quarter lead.

And I believe Kevin O'Leary when he says pollsters are irrelevant...I fully expect a bunch of surprises next week...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/pollsters-are-irrelevant-ahead-of-us-election-kevin-oleary-says.html

 

[brycejones]

The whole "George" gaffe...even with the explanation and NBC's apologies

Oh you're that guy concerned about Biden's gaffes. Yep Biden has his share of gaffes. How do his gaffes compare to Trumps? Show your work.

 

[brycejones]

Not sure about that...the enthusiasm at his rallies (from what we can see) is off the charts. People flock to see him even in Democratic strongholds. Rallies through Beverly Hills for crying out loud.

I'm not saying this one gaffe makes him senile. But man, the GOP knows optics. This, plus abrupt comments about ending oil, "I meant no fracking on FEDERAL lands," etc are all death by a thousand cuts and how you blow a 4th quarter lead.

And I believe Kevin O'Leary when he says pollsters are irrelevant...I fully expect a bunch of surprises next week...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/pollsters-are-irrelevant-ahead-of-us-election-kevin-oleary-says.html

Have you explained yet how the Democrats are taking the rust belt for granted? Or are we ignoring that and moving on to gaffes?

 

[fskimospy]

Not sure about that...the enthusiasm at his rallies (from what we can see) is off the charts. People flock to see him even in Democratic strongholds. Rallies through Beverly Hills for crying out loud.

I'm not saying this one gaffe makes him senile. But man, the GOP knows optics. This, plus abrupt comments about ending oil, "I meant no fracking on FEDERAL lands," etc are all death by a thousand cuts and how you blow a 4th quarter lead.

And I believe Kevin O'Leary when he says pollsters are irrelevant...I fully expect a bunch of surprises next week...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/pollsters-are-irrelevant-ahead-of-us-election-kevin-oleary-says.html

If I owned any shares of his fund I would immediately dump them after reading that, haha. Also, the article gets several basic facts wrong, which makes me question the knowledge or intelligence of the author. For example they claim polls had Clinton winning in a landslide and that’s just...entirely wrong.

Regardless, if he truly believes the polls are meaningless then the election is a coin flip. That means he should be buying large amounts of shares in sectors that would benefit from a Trump win because the market is pricing in a likely loss. I bet he’s not doing this because he’s full of shit.