Housing Crash #2 Under Way?

[werepossum]

i went down down down and the flames went higher.

it's all the republicans fault... i mean the democrats.... nevermind i don't know who to blame anymore.

Blame 'em all. That way you know you're at least half right.

 

[LegendKiller]

No need to be angry ... I only posted it here because I think this adds to discussion. If you'd read more into it, you would see that argument is very valid.

in the other news:

Not angry at all, just pointing out the silliness of their prognostications. Their argument is far from valid. In fact, it only has marginal basis in reality.

 

[Trianon]

Not angry at all, just pointing out the silliness of their prognostications. Their argument is far from valid. In fact, it only has marginal basis in reality.

What makes their argument about unsustainability of current debt load invalid? I don't know if you read the entire interview, the argument is not about gold as cure all money system... it's more about inflationary turmoil and ways to hedge yourself from losing fruits of your labor.

 

[LegendKiller]

What makes their argument about unsustainability of current debt load invalid? I don't know if you read the entire interview, the argument is not about gold as cure all money system... it's more about inflationary turmoil and ways to hedge yourself from losing fruits of your labor.

Have you ever even done a regression analysis on gold vs inflation or stocks vs inflation or land vs inflation? Have you done anything but take the same cow's cud and repeat it? Have you ever just doubted what you read and done some analysis on your own? I highly doubt it, otherwise you wouldn't be touting their tripe as anything but.

In fact, gold has a very weak correlation to inflation, even inflation measured in different standards (CPI vs M3..etc). Furthermore, stocks have a better correlation to inflation. Even more, land has a better correlation.

Only the uneducated masses think gold is a good inflation hedge, especially in its present paper-debautched form.


The sustainability of the current debt is unquestionable, there is no secret there and they didn't predict anything.

 

[theeedude]

Republicans are going to keep yelling Inflation and blocking stimulus even as this country descends into a Depression style deflationary spiral.

 

[Trianon]

Have you ever even done a regression analysis on gold vs inflation or stocks vs inflation or land vs inflation? Have you done anything but take the same cow's cud and repeat it? Have you ever just doubted what you read and done some analysis on your own? I highly doubt it, otherwise you wouldn't be touting their tripe as anything but.

In fact, gold has a very weak correlation to inflation, even inflation measured in different standards (CPI vs M3..etc). Furthermore, stocks have a better correlation to inflation. Even more, land has a better correlation.

Only the uneducated masses think gold is a good inflation hedge, especially in its present paper-debautched form.


The sustainability of the current debt is unquestionable, there is no secret there and they didn't predict anything.

agreed with paper ETFs statement, they are about as good as the paper they are printed on... as far as the rest, I sure know I would've loved to hold physical gold(jewelry) instead of roubles back in 1988 in the USSR. Dollars worked great too, but now it is unfortunately dollar's turn to go down the toilet, as designated by the FRB. Stocks may or may not be worth something after major downturn, for them to be worth something company has to survive in present form...

 

[LegendKiller]

agreed with paper ETFs statement, they are about as good as the paper they are printed on... as far as the rest, I sure know I would've loved to hold physical gold(jewelry) instead of roubles back in 1988 in the USSR. Dollars worked great too, but now it is unfortunately dollar's turn to go down the toilet, as designated by the FRB. Stocks may or may not be worth something after major downturn, for them to be worth something company has to survive in present form...

The paper ETFs affect physical, gold hasn't gone through the stratosphere because of the decline in the USD, it has gone up because speculation, same type of levered paper speculation as housing. For gold to be worth something in a situation where companies won't survive you need to have a society that actually wants it.

FRBs will be just fine, the dollar needs to go down for US to become competitive again manufacturing wise, especially vs China's manipulation. We're shoving their bullshit down their throats and their economy is going to die because of it.

 

[Trianon]

The paper ETFs affect physical, gold hasn't gone through the stratosphere because of the decline in the USD, it has gone up because speculation, same type of levered paper speculation as housing. For gold to be worth something in a situation where companies won't survive you need to have a society that actually wants it.

FRBs will be just fine, the dollar needs to go down for US to become competitive again manufacturing wise, especially vs China's manipulation. We're shoving their bullshit down their throats and their economy is going to die because of it.

Price of gold is high, but then so is price ofeverything else in comparison with 2006, for exmaple, except maybe homes... People will always want something that preserves value and is more or less portable, real assets accepted pretty much worldwide, securities - much smaller market.

I work in manufacturing for last 14 years, trust me, other than the military-industrial complex, not much manufacturing is left in the US, the kind of manufacturing that would be required to maintain our current lifestyle. I am not that concerned about the fate of China, not very interested at all... but FRB's tricks make the value of my labor going down, I don't like that, I am getting much less for my money then I was getting one year ago...

 

[Doppel]

Price of gold is high, but then so is price ofeverything else in comparison with 2006, for exmaple, except maybe homes... People will always want something that preserves value and is more or less portable, real assets accepted pretty much worldwide, securities - much smaller market.

I work in manufacturing for last 14 years, trust me, other than the military-industrial complex, not much manufacturing is left in the US, the kind of manufacturing that would be required to maintain our current lifestyle. I am not that concerned about the fate of China, not very interested at all... but FRB's tricks make the value of my labor going down, I don't like that, I am getting much less for my money then I was getting one year ago...

If I'm not mistaken the US is the second biggest manufacturer in the world, was passed by China in the last year perhaps. Trends are not good but it still creates a lot, just too much of it via automation.

 

[Acanthus]

Republicans are going to keep yelling Inflation and blocking stimulus even as this country descends into a Depression style deflationary spiral.

Honestly i think deflation is inbound no matter what we do. With median incomes tumbling so fast, and the gini index at all time highs, price increases just wont move product. There has to be a tremendous amount of pressure on prices right now to cut deep at retailers, especially for premium product lines.

An even worse scenario would be if they roll out QE3 and drive prices up artificially again, further delaying the inevitable. When people make less money in a consumer driven economy, they buy less shit. Inflation effectively is the double whammy here because it destroys the little buying power the little guy has left.

 

[Trianon]

If I'm not mistaken the US is the second biggest manufacturer in the world, was passed by China in the last year perhaps. Trends are not good but it still creates a lot, just too much of it via automation.

Check the pricing components, we buy all subcomponents for pennies, then add final assembly/prep, tack overhead/NRE on the top and publish final price as GDP, and still manage to run huge trade deficits... E.g. HonHai's markup on iPad/iPhone style electronics is 4%, when it makes it over the pond, another 50% is added to the price by someone like Apple, does that 50% really reflect added value?

 

[LegendKiller]

Price of gold is high, but then so is price ofeverything else in comparison with 2006, for exmaple, except maybe homes... People will always want something that preserves value and is more or less portable, real assets accepted pretty much worldwide, securities - much smaller market.

I work in manufacturing for last 14 years, trust me, other than the military-industrial complex, not much manufacturing is left in the US, the kind of manufacturing that would be required to maintain our current lifestyle. I am not that concerned about the fate of China, not very interested at all... but FRB's tricks make the value of my labor going down, I don't like that, I am getting much less for my money then I was getting one year ago...

Don't really care if you're "in" manufacturing or not, we don't produce $1.8tr of military equipment per year. There's a huge amount of manufacturing in this country, contrary to your and other pundit opinion. The problem is that China has suppressed their currency in order to make their manufacturing competitive. The FRB has used inflation to export it to China and make their goods less competitive. This is an economic war and you're blaming the wrong person, ignorantly.

As far as getting "less" for your money, you aren't getting too much less and inflation is only running at about 3%, even with energy. If you're driving a gas guzzling vehicle, that's your problem and has nothing to do with inflation either.

You need to get off of the conspiracy bullshit and start thinking about reality. YouTube is no way to learn about the real world.

 

[Trianon]

Don't really care if you're "in" manufacturing or not, we don't produce $1.8tr of military equipment per year. There's a huge amount of manufacturing in this country, contrary to your and other pundit opinion. The problem is that China has suppressed their currency in order to make their manufacturing competitive. The FRB has used inflation to export it to China and make their goods less competitive. This is an economic war and you're blaming the wrong person, ignorantly.

As far as getting "less" for your money, you aren't getting too much less and inflation is only running at about 3%, even with energy. If you're driving a gas guzzling vehicle, that's your problem and has nothing to do with inflation either.

You need to get off of the conspiracy bullshit and start thinking about reality. YouTube is no way to learn about the real world.

I form my opinion on my observations, not by soaking up anyone's advices, you really should try to stay civil, I didn't ask you to rate my thinking methods. I offered a POV for discussion, if it differs from yours and denial causes anger flashes, that is not my problem.

As I explained above, a lot of stuff that we re-export is not made here, yet counts to our GDP

 

[LegendKiller]

I form my opinion on my observations, not by soaking up anyone's advices, you really should try to stay civil, I didn't ask you to rate my thinking methods. I offered a POV for discussion, if it differs from yours and denial causes anger flashes, that is not my problem.

As I explained above, a lot of stuff that we re-export is not made here, yet counts to our GDP

Obviously your observations are flawed and do not reflect the reality of how GDP is measured and calculated. The US is still the largest manufacturing economy by several measurements which is based upon real value added. Not just counting what you think is re-exporting.

http://shopfloor.org/2011/03/u-s-manufacturing-remains-worlds-largest/18756

Nice tactic though, trying to diminish an argument by classifying it as "anger".

 

[wirednuts]

factories can be raised just as fast as they were abandoned. china only has them now because their workers get paid a fraction of what other markets get. the standard of living for the average chinamen is rising rapidly, so the playing field is leveling, especially with oil prices the way they are. its speculated in about 5 years it will no longer be a significant cost saving to produce your goods in china, and manufacturing will make a big swing back to america.

i myself thinks its true, but only because we lost so much of it. we have a lot more people then we did in the 70's with a lot more shit to build, yet we still get everything from half a world away? it makes no sense

 

[Doppel]

Check the pricing components, we buy all subcomponents for pennies, then add final assembly/prep, tack overhead/NRE on the top and publish final price as GDP, and still manage to run huge trade deficits... E.g. HonHai's markup on iPad/iPhone style electronics is 4%, when it makes it over the pond, another 50% is added to the price by someone like Apple, does that 50% really reflect added value?

I think GDP is a sh*t measure of the economy, really, which is exactly why the government uses it, because it ignores deficit spending (that spending being the only reason GDP is positive now, so that we can pretend the economy is growing).

 

[LegendKiller]

factories can be raised just as fast as they were abandoned. china only has them now because their workers get paid a fraction of what other markets get. the standard of living for the average chinamen is rising rapidly, so the playing field is leveling, especially with oil prices the way they are. its speculated in about 5 years it will no longer be a significant cost saving to produce your goods in china, and manufacturing will make a big swing back to america.

i myself thinks its true, but only because we lost so much of it. we have a lot more people then we did in the 70's with a lot more shit to build, yet we still get everything from half a world away? it makes no sense

The problem with somebody like Trianon is that he doesn't realize that the wages had to come down in real terms in the US and had to go up in real terms in China and other places, the equilibrium was going to happen and it is happening, partially thanks to the FRB which not only helped suppress the dollar and forced China into a place they won't want to go, revaluing the RNMB.

The result?

http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/17/news/economy/made_in_usa/index.htm?source=cnn_bin

 

[Trianon]

I think GDP is a sh*t measure of the economy, really, which is exactly why the government uses it, because it ignores deficit spending (that spending being the only reason GDP is positive now, so that we can pretend the economy is growing).

agreed. As BLS and other govt statistics agencies have shown over time, they can tailor the numbers to whatever current policy requires

 

[Trianon]

Obviously your observations are flawed and do not reflect the reality of how GDP is measured and calculated. The US is still the largest manufacturing economy by several measurements which is based upon real value added. Not just counting what you think is re-exporting.

http://shopfloor.org/2011/03/u-s-manufacturing-remains-worlds-largest/18756

Nice tactic though, trying to diminish an argument by classifying it as "anger".

Hmm, and I am supposed to buy this at face value? A manufacturing blog?

as far as your sniping about Youtube education, classification is very obvious.

 

[LegendKiller]

Hmm, and I am supposed to buy this at face value? A manufacturing blog?

as far as your sniping about Youtube education, classification is very obvious.

So we're supposed to take your word as gospel in a debate but trust nobody else's? Ahh, the good 'ole "finger in ear" trick, eh? Forget the UN's studies, they obviously known far less than you. Forget all other measurements too, meaningless in the face of your plethora of macro economics knowledge.

 

[Trianon]

So we're supposed to take your word as gospel in a debate but trust nobody else's? Ahh, the good 'ole "finger in ear" trick, eh? Forget the UN's studies, they obviously known far less than you. Forget all other measurements too, meaningless in the face of your plethora of macro economics knowledge.

All this means that I am not convinced, but I am listening. Hmm, are you the master debater... getting so worked up over a discussion

 

[LegendKiller]

All this means that I am not convinced, but I am listening. Hmm, are you the master debater... getting so worked up over a discussion

You aren't listening to anything, but angry people usually don't. Try to calm down, data is assimilated better then.

 

[wirednuts]

and about the gold.. there is no doubt in my mind some mining company is going to stumble upon a massive gold bed in some weird mountain and the value of that stuff will drop like the rocks they are when they flood the market.

 

[Trianon]

You aren't listening to anything, but angry people usually don't. Try to calm down, data is assimilated better then.

I don't see how your statements above add anything to this discussion, just the same old indocrinated banker drivel plus personal attacks. Thanks for proving nothing.

 

[LegendKiller]

I don't see how your statements above add anything to this discussion, just the same old indocrinated banker drivel plus personal attacks. Thanks for proving nothing.

Why do you need to be so angry and insulting? Can't we keep this civil? Why do you need to debase the conversation by attacking my profession, implying guilt by association? That's the sign of an angry person. Please keep the debate at a nice level and do not get so worked up.

I'm listening.