Housing Crash #2 Under Way?

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Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
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Another thing BA is minimum wage was not supposed to be a career, but for kids to get their working wings and older adults to supplement SS. As we don't produce what we consume minimum wage or around that become more common at many jobs because there are so many out of work people (supply and demand) that's another reason to get the factories back, would increase wages at places like wal mart.
 

blackangst1

Lifer
Feb 23, 2005
22,902
2,359
126
Another thing BA is minimum wage was not supposed to be a career, but for kids to get their working wings and older adults to supplement SS. As we don't produce what we consume minimum wage or around that become more common at many jobs because there are so many out of work people (supply and demand) that's another reason to get the factories back, would increase wages at places like wal mart.

Yes, I understand that, as is evidenced by how few people actually earn MW. It was kind of a flippant question pointing to the fact that the status in society is no worse today than it was, say, 40 years ago for those making minimum wage.
 

Acanthus

Lifer
Aug 28, 2001
19,915
2
76
ostif.org
Wages for the middle and working classes are getting hit very hard though. The quantity of people making minimum may be similar to the past, but the quantity of people trending downward in wages is alarming.

The very rapid increase in the Gini Index over the last half-decade is troubling to even the most conservative economist. The top 1% are getting dramatically increased wages while median income is tumbling to pre-2000 levels.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
Wages for the middle and working classes are getting hit very hard though. The quantity of people making minimum may be similar to the past, but the quantity of people trending downward in wages is alarming.

The very rapid increase in the Gini Index over the last half-decade is troubling to even the most conservative economist. The top 1% are getting dramatically increased wages while median income is tumbling to pre-2000 levels.
As Zebo pointed out, this is largely because of the loss of wealth-producing jobs and the increased labor supply. When we increase the supply of labor, both by immigration and by allowing unfettered competition from abroad, we downgrade the value of that labor. The main effect of this has been on unskilled and low education labor, especially since so much immigration has been illegal immigration, but we're starting to see a squeeze on skilled labor and white collar work as well, because as the work is increasingly being done by other countries, that work's requirements for engineering, accounting, and management drop considerably. As people in low wage countries like China learn how to make the products we demand, they will form their own companies to manufacture competing products at lower prices (because of the lower overhead, lower regulatory costs, and lower taxes with the same cheap labor American companies' foreign factories enjoy.) As these start-ups increase market share, we see further drop in domestic demand for engineering, accounting, and management from the shrinking American companies.

And personally, I say screw 'em. If an American company produces its products in the USA, I'll pay more, sometime considerably more, to use their products. But if an American company moves its factories to China and its support to India, screw 'em. I'll buy a foreign competitor in preference, especially if that competitor's products are made in its home country.
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
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81
As Zebo pointed out, this is largely because of the loss of wealth-producing jobs and the increased labor supply. When we increase the supply of labor, both by immigration and by allowing unfettered competition from abroad, we downgrade the value of that labor. The main effect of this has been on unskilled and low education labor, especially since so much immigration has been illegal immigration, but we're starting to see a squeeze on skilled labor and white collar work as well, because as the work is increasingly being done by other countries, that work's requirements for engineering, accounting, and management drop considerably. As people in low wage countries like China learn how to make the products we demand, they will form their own companies to manufacture competing products at lower prices (because of the lower overhead, lower regulatory costs, and lower taxes with the same cheap labor American companies' foreign factories enjoy.) As these start-ups increase market share, we see further drop in domestic demand for engineering, accounting, and management from the shrinking American companies.

And personally, I say screw 'em. If an American company produces its products in the USA, I'll pay more, sometime considerably more, to use their products. But if an American company moves its factories to China and its support to India, screw 'em. I'll buy a foreign competitor in preference, especially if that competitor's products are made in its home country.

:thumbsup: Just bought a new flashlight this morning, Surefire made in USA.

I try to buy USA only but it's hard, for things I can't find I go Europe or open societies in Asia like Korea or Japan. Last resort is China, like practically everything in a computer:(
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
:thumbsup: Just bought a new flashlight this morning, Surefire made in USA.

I try to buy USA only but it's hard, for things I can't find I go Europe or open societies in Asia like Korea or Japan. Last resort is China, like practically everything in a computer:(
Pretty much the same for me, except I usually favor Japan or South Korea over Europe (except for the UK and Poland and Czech Republic.) We went to Lowes last Sunday and everything we bought (paint, brushes, leaf rake, clippers) was made in the USA. Had a bit of a disagreement with the wife over the rake (Chinese-made had a nice foam handle for less money) and the brushes (America-made was $12 versus three for $8 for the Chinese), but with a bit of searching one can find all manner of things still made in the USA. You do pay more, and sometimes the quality isn't as good, but one has to make sacrifices to preserve our manufacturing base. On a side note, I do wish mail order companies would list country of origin for everything.
 

Trianon

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2000
1,789
0
71
www.conkurent.com
A full 38% of borrowers who took out second mortgages are underwater on the loans, reports CoreLogic, vs. an 18% underwater rate for first mortgages. Borrowers with second mortgages also have deeper levels of negative equity, facing an average of $83K vs. $52K for other borrowers.
 

Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
3
0
If an American company produces its products in the USA, I'll pay more, sometime considerably more, to use their products. But if an American company moves its factories to China and its support to India, screw 'em.
Not me. I don't have the spare money for that ;)

I will sometimes pay for premier quality and it's often US but it often isn't. I am one of 300 M consumers and if I can get chinese made for $10 or US made for $14 I'll get the Chinese. That $4 stays in my wallet (in America), for something else anyway.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,685
136
A full 38% of borrowers who took out second mortgages are underwater on the loans, reports CoreLogic, vs. an 18% underwater rate for first mortgages. Borrowers with second mortgages also have deeper levels of negative equity, facing an average of $83K vs. $52K for other borrowers.

Of course. At the height of the "Ownership Society", Prices were so ridiculous and lending standards so lax that 80/20 deals were the only thing sustaining the bubble, along with cashout refis at up to 125% of FMV... If I'd had a dog, it probably would have qualified for a $400K Ninja loan...

Today, of course, almost nobody qualifies w/o a nice chunk of cash upfront, which will further depress prices. Not that mortgage servicers care- they're stretching out foreclosures & resales as long as possible, sucking the cashflow from good mortgages off the top of MBS revenue streams as extra "fees" of various sorts, beating cash out of investors in the process. Why should they foreclose & resell when they make more the other way?
 

alkemyst

No Lifer
Feb 13, 2001
83,769
19
81
Not me. I don't have the spare money for that ;)

I will sometimes pay for premier quality and it's often US but it often isn't. I am one of 300 M consumers and if I can get chinese made for $10 or US made for $14 I'll get the Chinese. That $4 stays in my wallet (in America), for something else anyway.

I'd kill myself if I had to live this way.
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
another 10-25% decline? Just peachy... my house is the same price now as it was when I bought it in Oct 2002, in de-valued $$$ no less.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/09/us-usa-housing-shiller-idUSTRE75839I20110609

I built my own house but at one point it was worth 2.2 now about 700. Don't feel bad. Easy come easy go. Y'all really didn't think 20% a year appreciation was sustainable? Nor incomes could support those payments. Decreasing income will further wreck housing - cash starved localities will raise taxes further depression them - plenty of bad paper is still on the books banks are tepid to release but as they release it will depress further.
 
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Trianon

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2000
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71
www.conkurent.com
I built my own house but at one point it was worth 2.2 now about 700. Don't feel bad. Easy come easy go. Y'all really didn't think 20% a year appreciation was sustainable? Nor incomes could support those payments. Decreasing income will further wreck housing - cash starved localities will raise taxes further depression them - plenty of bad paper is still on the books banks are tepid to release but as they release it will depress further.

Did you receive Bud's book? how do you like it? I concur with you on all comments made above, I didn't expect housing to flourish without wages, back in 2002 I thought wage inflation will follow dollar depreciation, it didn't happen(except for top 1%). I don't feel bad, to be honest, I would have to live somewhere anyway, but if house prices godown another 25% and I have to move for work, bank will be getting some "jingle mail" from me...
 
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Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
Did you receive Bud's book? how do you like it? I concur with you on all comments made above, I didn't expect housing to flourish without wages, back in 2002 I thought wage inflation will follow dollar depreciation, it didn't happen(except for top 1%). I don't feel bad, to be honest, I would have to live somewhere anyway, but if house prices godown another 25% and I have to move for work, bank will be getting some "jingle mail" from me...

It's only business and I can make a powerful argument consumers were defrauded in the first place making all mortgage contracts in last 10 years null and void not to mention banks themselves walk from property all the time. Course they CYA and do it though subsidies so their Dunn and Bradstreet rating doesn't take a hit.


Anyway no not yet bro, should be here yesterday along with a surfire light I ordered but I have lazy UPS driver.:p
 

Trianon

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2000
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www.conkurent.com
It's only business and I can make a powerful argument consumers were defrauded in the first place making all mortgage contracts in last 10 years null and void not to mention banks themselves walk from property all the time. Course they CYA and do it though subsidies so their Dunn and Bradstreet rating doesn't take a hit.


Anyway no not yet bro, should be here yesterday along with a surfire light I ordered but I have lazy UPS driver.:p

One of my friends bought a newly built house in 2000 for 700K, in 2005 I was telling him to sell it, comparables in his neighbourhood where selling for 1.5M like hotcakes... He just couldn't commit to living in rental for 3 years, he was sure it was gonna go up and up... he almost cried last year, still paying mortgage, working for half what he used to make, kicking his own butt for not listening to me.
 

alkemyst

No Lifer
Feb 13, 2001
83,769
19
81
One of my friends bought a newly built house in 2000 for 700K, in 2005 I was telling him to sell it, comparables in his neighbourhood where selling for 1.5M like hotcakes... He just couldn't commit to living in rental for 3 years, he was sure it was gonna go up and up... he almost cried last year, still paying mortgage, working for half what he used to make, kicking his own butt for not listening to me.

So since you knew of this sure thing how much property you make bank on?
 

alkemyst

No Lifer
Feb 13, 2001
83,769
19
81
unfortunately not much at all, didn't have $$$ at the time. I did escape 401k drop, but couldn't use the money to short the market due ti investment option limitations.

They umm made really easy to get loans, face it you only guessed right.
 

Trianon

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2000
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They umm made really easy to get loans, face it you only guessed right.

not for me, immigrant, no family in the US, didn't even have green card at the time, was in adjustment of status process, working on H1-B:) they did give me mortgage for townhome though:) Unsecured loans - no, I did try... But surviving fall of the USSR gives a few memorable pointers on how unstable conditions look like. Like I said, the development was only making any sense if significant wage inflation for majority of population was to follow, and when it didn't happen, it was game over. Don't get me wrong, I am not gloating, just saying that sometimes smart folks deny obvious realities(my buddy was CCIA? at the time, with two contractor jobs, pulling close to 220K/year before tax)
 
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alkemyst

No Lifer
Feb 13, 2001
83,769
19
81
You should look for a commodities position then, give them the first two sure things for your interview...profit!
 

Trianon

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2000
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You should look for a commodities position then, give them the first two sure things for your interview...profit!

hahaha, u know, u may be right, just recently(2008) started looking into investing more seriously, reading more on the topic, etc... before 2008 I was complacent with status quo, housing appeared to be a more or less isolated bubble, now, after studying the subject a bit, I see that the whole system is very unstable and you can only count on what you can earn and preserve. I am paying much, much more attention to monetary issues now.
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
There were plenty of economists sounding the alarm well before the boom even started, while it was going on, and right before it hit. Choices we make is taking information and culling what seems like hype from what makes sense. Very few people make money guessing but rather educated guessing in this boom bust cycle investment banks create. It's a damn shame we all need to educate ourselves and can't just put our hard earned money in a CD for decent guaranteed returns that beat inflation like old model but that world is long gone.
 

Trianon

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2000
1,789
0
71
www.conkurent.com
There were plenty of economists sounding the alarm well before the boom even started, while it was going on, and right before it hit. Choices we make is taking information and culling what seems like hype from what makes sense. Very few people make money guessing but rather educated guessing in this boom bust cycle investment banks create. It's a damn shame we all need to educate ourselves and can't just put our hard earned money in a CD for decent guaranteed returns that beat inflation like old model but that world is long gone.

I would've preferred to stick to my professional interest, Electrical Engineering, but Fed policies rob midlevel professional like myself blind, so I have to spend a fair share of time figuring out how to preserve what I earn.