Election prediction thread

[Maxima1]

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/final-picks-for-2018/

D +34 in House, R +1 in Senate, D +10 in governorships

I'd take this.

 

[ElFenix]

no one has predicted pain?

c'mon guys

 

[vi edit]

The polling coming out today was a bit of a surprise. Was not expecting the distances D senators covered over the last few weeks. Will wait and see what happens. Tomorrow is gonna be a really long day.

 

[snoopy7548]

no one has predicted pain?

c'mon guys

I predict pain with a flurry of snowflakes.

 

[K1052]

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/final-picks-for-2018/

D +34 in House, R +1 in Senate, D +10 in governorships

I'd take this.

Same. They've got the best, IMO, take that I've seen thus far.

 

[zinfamous]

Doesn't the sitting presidents party generally take a beating in the mid terms? I thought that was SOP? Regardless, I expect Trump hate to bring dems out in droves. Seems like the dems will take the house and senate.

yeah, but things have been weird for a few years now. Polling stays overall accurate, but hasn't been great at detecting these newer movements of the "unreported" Trumpists that seem to be voting for the first time in their lives.

Also, the economy is doing pretty great by the most standard measurements, but the president remains largely, historically, unpopular as measured by the most standard methods. That is also very weird.

 

[realibrad]

yeah, but things have been weird for a few years now. Polling stays overall accurate, but hasn't been great at detecting these newer movements of the "unreported" Trumpists that seem to be voting for the first time in their lives.

Also, the economy is doing pretty great by the most standard measurements, but the president remains largely, historically, unpopular as measured by the most standard methods. That is also very weird.

The world feels upside down. Just too much noise.

 

[K1052]

Oh good, Trump is starting in on the "if we lose the election is a fraud and millions of illegal ballots cast" bullshit again.

 

[soundforbjt]

Oh good, Trump is starting in on the "if we lose the election is a fraud and millions of illegal ballots cast" bullshit again.

And his mindless followers will believe it. Also, he's practicing for the 2020 election if he makes it that far.

 

[K1052]

And his mindless followers will believe it.

For his hardcore base their faith in him is already basically religious in nature. He could literally set their bodies aflame while saying he didn't do it or that they don't care. Pure cult of personality.

 

[VRAMdemon]

For his hardcore base their faith in him is already basically religious in nature. He could literally set their bodies aflame while saying he didn't do it or that they don't care. Pure cult of personality.

It boil down to ‘shooting the messenger.’ Deep down, they know that these things are false. They don’t care, What they object to is the sense of inferiority created when someone tells them that the things they know to be false are actually false.

Once a con man cons somebody, there is a bias among the marks not to admit that they’re that stupid to be conned, with this particular con, they want it to go on and on. They seem to love it...

 

[VRAMdemon]

Here's a real peach...Republican Congressional candidate in North Carolina says there can be no peace in the Middle East until the Jews convert to Christianity.

https://forward.com/fast-forward/413...iR-wjVk11kbnJY

 

[umbrella39]

Another sock emerges. lol.

Indeed. One must ask the right why they are soooooo unsure of their "WINNING" that they need to create multiple accounts to show just how popular their guy is!!!

Pathetic cucks..

 

[zinfamous]

I predict that polling errors vs. actual results will be huge, as no one can predict what'll happen when the half of the country that never votes suddenly starts voting.

Too bad all those early voters in GA and probably TX are going to be tossed out because the culling algorithm decides that their names are improperly hyphenated or that two people with the same name are actually the same person, etc. ....oh and because they are early voters and therefore "communists." lulz.

 

[dphantom]

Time to stop bitching and put up!

House goes Dem by the narrowest of margins, 220 seats to 215 (with an indie in there somewhere)

Senate stays Republican, 52-48

Generally agreed.

My last, best estimate is 220-215 Dem as you have it though it could be anywhere from 210-225 favor R to 235-200 favor D

I think R will flip a few Dem seats but overall it will be D's night though no blue wave and perhaps underperforming typical mid-year elections.

Senate 53-47 R

 

[brycejones]

And his mindless followers will believe it. Also, he's practicing for the 2020 election if he makes it that far.

He will make it to 2020. Assuming the Dems take the House they will dig up enough to make him even more unpopular but so far the senate has shown exactly zero moral leadership or interest in holding this administration accountable

I wouldn't be shocked if Trump bails out of 2020 declaring victory and he was the best ever and doesn't need to prove anything else.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

He will make it to 2020. Assuming the Dems take the House they will dig up enough to make him even more unpopular but so far the senate has shown exactly zero moral leadership or interest in holding this administration accountable

I wouldn't be shocked if Trump bails out of 2020 declaring victory and he was the best ever and doesn't need to prove anything else.

He gets tired of winning?

 

[Jhhnn]

He will make it to 2020. Assuming the Dems take the House they will dig up enough to make him even more unpopular but so far the senate has shown exactly zero moral leadership or interest in holding this administration accountable

I wouldn't be shocked if Trump bails out of 2020 declaring victory and he was the best ever and doesn't need to prove anything else.

That may change with a Dem HOR & further revelations from the Special Counsel. I wouldn't expect it to remain quiet on that front after the election. Too many rats, really big rats, too.

 

[soundforbjt]

He will make it to 2020. Assuming the Dems take the House they will dig up enough to make him even more unpopular but so far the senate has shown exactly zero moral leadership or interest in holding this administration accountable

I wouldn't be shocked if Trump bails out of 2020 declaring victory and he was the best ever and doesn't need to prove anything else.

If Dems take the House and Mueller digs up some undeniable proof that even some Trumpists have/start to believe the Repubs in the Senate will ditch him without question and claim they never supported him.

 

[fskimospy]

As I think I've said before while I don't have any good predictions outside of 538 what's going to be a real treasure is if the Democrats only win the popular vote by say 5 points or so (which would be a landslide for Republicans) and then we will get treated to endless statements of how the 'American people chose to return the Republicans to power'. That will be a treat.

 

[nakedfrog]

He will make it to 2020. Assuming the Dems take the House they will dig up enough to make him even more unpopular but so far the senate has shown exactly zero moral leadership or interest in holding this administration accountable

I wouldn't be shocked if Trump bails out of 2020 declaring victory and he was the best ever and doesn't need to prove anything else.

That's actually not unreasonable, "I've already accomplished so much more in four years than any other president ever has or ever will, now back to the private sector where I can continue to make the world a better place".

 

[imported_tajmahal]

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/final-picks-for-2018/

D +34 in House, R +1 in Senate, D +10 in governorships

I'd take this.

Every Democrat in the country would take that............ but it's not going to happen.

 

[imported_tajmahal]

Indeed. One must ask the right why they are soooooo unsure of their "WINNING" that they need to create multiple accounts to show just how popular their guy is!!!

Pathetic cucks..

Isn't there an active thread about that if the forum?

 

[fskimospy]

That's actually not unreasonable, "I've already accomplished so much more in four years than any other president ever has or ever will, now back to the private sector where I can continue to make the world a better place".

I think you may underestimate both his ego and how much he might depend on keeping the presidency (or keeping it as leverage) to avoid prosecution.

I can see him doing what you say but I think it will be in exchange for immunity or something like that, not that he's too unpopular.

 

[Sunburn74]

Here's a real peach...Republican Congressional candidate in North Carolina says there can be no peace in the Middle East until the Jews convert to Christianity.

https://forward.com/fast-forward/413...iR-wjVk11kbnJY

Why would that work? I'm confused on so many levels...

There were lots of "good christians" around during the brutal conquering of the Caribbean islands, centuries of US slavery, genocide and various crimes against humanity perpetrated on US natives, spanish inquisition with the church sanctioned torturing of "christians by even more holier christians", the hundreds years war (one christian country against another), the english civil war (christian factions within the same country) and so on and so on.

It's almost as if he knows nothing at all about history, government and human behavior yet he's running for office which by default would require some knowledge of these things.