Election prediction thread

[Jhhnn]

Trump's rallys are huge compared to anything the other side draws... but anyways... we'll see the results in a few days

Not really-

https://heavy.com/news/2018/09/beto-willie-nelson-rally-photos-crowd/

 

[imported_tajmahal]

The Dems narrowly take the House, the Republicans pick up 3-4 seats in the Senate.

222-213 46-54

 

[UNCjigga]

I predict that polling errors vs. actual results will be huge, as no one can predict what'll happen when the half of the country that never votes suddenly starts voting.

 

[Jhhnn]

I predict that polling errors vs. actual results will be huge, as no one can predict what'll happen when the half of the country that never votes suddenly starts voting.

I think America is a lot more liberal than the current state of representation shows.

High turnout scares the shit out of the GOP, rightfully so. They're staring at disaster, I think.

 

[Red Squirrel]

I predict that no matter who wins, there will be lot of protests and violence and hatred. The Russians will really have the final word on who wins.

Seriously though I think it will probably be close but democrats will probably win.

 

[UNCjigga]

I think America is a lot more liberal than the current state of representation shows.

High turnout scares the shit out of the GOP, rightfully so. They're staring at disaster, I think.

Odd, considering that in at least a few of these races, the enthusiastic folks turning out are voting Republican too.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Why would you squelch something when you know no wrong has been done by you? As a Deplorable what i am more worried about is how D's are going to psychologically cope when the report says that there was no Russian collusion and no obstruction of justice. The investigation is kind of a thorn in Trump's side, and a way for D's to have some hope, but in the end they are going to be rather disappointed i think.

btw, who do you think has more enthusiasm... the Deplorables or the other side

https://twitter.com/Jamierodr10/status/1058431413719056386

Lol what a complete failure. No one in the video.... can vote. None were there for Trump. They were just there. And they had to apologize after he spoke for what he said.

It’s just another pathetic dear leader distortion.

 

[imported_tajmahal]

I think America is a lot more liberal than the current state of representation shows.

High turnout scares the shit out of the GOP, rightfully so. They're staring at disaster, I think.

FFS Jhhnn the title of this thread is "election prediction thread" you have 10 posts in this thread. How about you actually make a prediction?

 

[alien42]

Why would you squelch something when you know no wrong has been done by you? As a Deplorable what i am more worried about is how D's are going to psychologically cope when the report says that there was no Russian collusion and no obstruction of justice. The investigation is kind of a thorn in Trump's side, and a way for D's to have some hope, but in the end they are going to be rather disappointed i think.

btw, who do you think has more enthusiasm... the Deplorables or the other side

https://twitter.com/Jamierodr10/status/1058431413719056386

lol, the day trump made a complete ass out of himself in front of thousands of boy scouts, a real wholesome embarrassment that was.

some highlights - https://youtu.be/clZ2GoiYMQ8

 

[Puffnstuff]

I predict that people will vote and a winner will emerge.

 

[sportage]

Have to hand it to Trump.
If republicans succeed, they owe Donald Trump for that success.
For an old guy living off fast food and butt cellulite, Donald has more energy than most people half his age.
This guy goes 24/7 with flying around the country, up at 5am tweeting, never looks tried, always looks the same, always full of energy, simply inhumanly amazing.
And Donald has never smoked and claims has never partaken in alcohol.
And his sex drive is quite high, at least in his own mind of fantasy world.
So what is it that keeps Trump going?

The no alcohol?
The no smoking?
The fast food?
The sex drive?
The money?

No.....
I think none of the above.
It's undoubtedly the arrogance. The ego. The idea that no one is his equal.
Makes one wonder what it would look like when Donald Trump begins to slip. To falter. To show his age. To appear frail and withered.
That is, given Donald is in fact human and not the spawn of the unholy.

 

[sportage]

PS.
I'm hearing democrats especially in the media readying for the possibility of a loss. A loss to take the house and a loss with gaining in the senate.
What democrats are saying is whatever happens in THIS ELECTION, that will "surely" set the stage for a big democrat win come 2020.
Really? 2020?
So.... it's that same old "The sun will come out tomorrow", all over again?
Next time, then next time, then next time, and if not then surely the very next time after that?

If democrats fail, and I smell failure, then I doubt there will be a next time around for democrats.
By 2020 a republican government will assure voters are further suppressed, legally and upheld by Trump's Supreme Court.
An republicans controlled government will assure the presidents opponents and the media are muffled from questioning anything Donald Trump.
And I wouldn't be surprised if Donald Trump uses the US military to silence his opponents in ways we could never imagine.
Republicans and Donald Trump will have just the time they need, and now the high court they need, to change everything.

In this election, what most Americans have in common is...
The economy is actually pretty good.
People are finding jobs, low pay jobs sure, but still jobs.
And the majority of Americans do fear illegal immigration. They do.
We had women in America murdered by illegals over last Summer.
People pay attention to that. On both sides.

And also, we currently have no major war. Not like we once had during past administrations.
Add to that an alliance, or seemingly so, with our enemies i.e. Kim Jon-Un and Putin.
It is odd when America has both no major war AND an booming economy.
Usually, a booming economy requires a major war in progress.

So, considering all the facts, democrats should fail miserably on Tuesday.
Why would a majority of Americans risk so called "good times"?
And if democrats should fail, hand that to Donald Trump.
Donald kept it together, and now it's full steam ahead for that republican agenda.
If you're a woman that supports freedom of choice, or a gay person that values their new found marriage rights, or a person with some preexisting medical condition, BE AFRAID.
BE VERY AFRAID.

 

[rvborgh]

hi Sportage,

MAGA relies on the US not getting itself (yet again) involved in a major money and life draining war in foreign lands. Anyone that has listened to what Trump had to say during the last 10 years (and during the runup to 2016) knows that he was against the stupidity of the US involving ourselves in wars overseas.

If you may have noticed, Trump is trying to make peace with our enemies... first with North Korea (btw, N and S Korea will be united). He wants peace with Russia as well (but the establishment folks are extremely against this). China he also wants to make economic peace with... but not without first getting a good deal. Trump believe it or not wants the US to get along with everyone, but not at the expense of us being on the raw end of things and being taken advantage of.

i call Trump the US's first Asian president... simply because he knows all about the concept of "face" when dealing with tyrants and dictators. Someone with a more typical mindset like Hillary would never have been able to do what he's done with NK. Obama failed. Bush failed. Clinton failed. Trump succeeded.

If you think we have a booming economy now... you haven't seen anything yet. Trump will be in for two terms.... the USA after his two terms is going to be way more prosperous than when he entered the office.

btw, the key to everything is a good economy. You can't help the poor without it, and neither can you afford a good military. Everything is easier when you have a good economy.

PS.
And also, we currently have no major war. Not like we once had during past administrations.
Add to that an alliance, or seemingly so, with our enemies i.e. Kim Jon-Un and Putin.
It is odd when America has both no major war AND an booming economy.
Usually, a booming economy requires a major war in progress.
BE VERY AFRAID.

 

[umbrella39]

LOL I remember my first drink and when I thought I knew how the economy works! No wonder you support Trump!

Meat puppets... my favorite type!!! Keep posting...

 

[K1052]

20-40 seat gain in the House for the D's

The Senate is basically ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ because of all the MOE races.

A bunch of governorships are kinda in the same place but possibly leaning a bit more D.

There are going to be some nuclear winter type places for the Republicans like PA is looking. Rust belt/upper midwest as most likely.

 

[ivwshane]

hi Sportage,

MAGA relies on the US not getting itself (yet again) involved in a major money and life draining war in foreign lands. Anyone that has listened to what Trump had to say during the last 10 years (and during the runup to 2016) knows that he was against the stupidity of the US involving ourselves in wars overseas.

If you may have noticed, Trump is trying to make peace with our enemies... first with North Korea (btw, N and S Korea will be united). He wants peace with Russia as well (but the establishment folks are extremely against this). China he also wants to make economic peace with... but not without first getting a good deal. Trump believe it or not wants the US to get along with everyone, but not at the expense of us being on the raw end of things and being taken advantage of.

i call Trump the US's first Asian president... simply because he knows all about the concept of "face" when dealing with tyrants and dictators. Someone with a more typical mindset like Hillary would never have been able to do what he's done with NK. Obama failed. Bush failed. Clinton failed. Trump succeeded.

If you think we have a booming economy now... you haven't seen anything yet. Trump will be in for two terms.... the USA after his two terms is going to be way more prosperous than when he entered the office.

btw, the key to everything is a good economy. You can't help the poor without it, and neither can you afford a good military. Everything is easier when you have a good economy.

That was hilarious! It's like you took reality and turned it inside out. If you would have said something about Obama and Iran and how the Iran deal was how you don't negotiate with our enemies, you would get an A+ in trumpism. Why face an uncomfortable truth when you can lie and just make shit up?

Instead of acknowledging that Russia meddled in our election and continues to do so just pretend it didn't happen and call it good and ignore the attacks on our democracy for the sake of creating peace between our two countries. So what if Russia contributed to meddle in our politics and continues to create chaos and distrust in other democracies and between our allies, Russia is our friend now! Lol

Instead of dealing with China by negotiating with all its trade partners and getting them to sign on and agree with our policies and influence in the region we should totally start a trade war with the largest and fastest economic growing country in the world! What could possibly go wrong, other than our influence in the region going out the window and China and other countries looking for alternatives to US goods? We'll just call it winning and ignore the negative impact it has had on US companies. Brilliant!

Why admit that trumps handling of north Korea has been a disaster and hasn't lead to any progress other than being played just like the president's before him, when you can just declare progress like the world has never seen is being made? So what if north Korea continues developing their nuclear weapons, we'll just pretend its not happening because they said so. We'll just ignore our own intelligence agencies and just accept NK's word without any verification, because that's what peace is all about... Giving your enemies what they want and having both parties pretend that's not what's happening. Winning!

I especially liked your bit about the economy, that was great! Everyone knows, from decades of examples, that trickle down economics works and that the poor and middle class will get theirs when the economy is doing great! Its why real wages have grown so much and not just barely kept up with inflation! Only a stable genius would realize that a strong economy brings in more revenue for which to take care of the poor and military, otherwise we'd have massive amounts of debt with rising interest rates on top of it, which is why cutting taxes to reduce that revenue stream was such a good move!
/sarcasm




Holy shit!

 

[snoopy7548]

Dems will take the house and possibly the senate - young voter turnout is at a record high, and young voters (which lean liberal) can easily determine the makeup of the government if they just vote. Millennials love to whine about what's going on, but they really do have all the power here.

I predict Beto will defeat Cruz.

I also predict shenanigans from Trump & Co., but that's a given.

 

[Bitek]

No idea as I don't trust anything until the results are in.

That being said, I hope to hell the Ds take the house and it would be awesome if Beto sent Cruz packing and Abrams takes the GA gov.

Ds getting the Senate would be nice, but it's more important that they do well in the state races and RBG stays healthy so we are lined up for 2020.

 

[brycejones]

lol, the day trump made a complete ass out of himself in front of thousands of boy scouts, a real wholesome embarrassment that was.

some highlights - https://youtu.be/clZ2GoiYMQ8

Ein Volk, Ein Country, Ein Kinder, Ein Trump

 

[brycejones]

No idea as I don't trust anything until the results are in.

That being said, I hope to hell the Ds take the house and it would be awesome if Beto sent Cruz packing and Abrams takes the GA gov.

Ds getting the Senate would be nice, but it's more important that they do well in the state races and RBG stays healthy so we are lined up for 2020.

I think the Senate is out of reach but given the numbers of seats that had to be defended coming into the election cycle holding even or losing only 1 or 2 is an accomplishment on its own. I haven't looked ahead yet to who is up in 2020 on the senate side.

 

[Commodus]

Dems will take the house and possibly the senate - young voter turnout is at a record high, and young voters (which lean liberal) can easily determine the makeup of the government if they just vote. Millennials love to whine about what's going on, but they really do have all the power here.

I predict Beto will defeat Cruz.

I also predict shenanigans from Trump & Co., but that's a given.

I'm really skeptical of Beto beating Cruz, even if he's the strongest opponent to Cruz in a long time. The polls show it being relatively close, but still in Cruz's favor.

With that said, I'm happy to be proven wrong... and as I've said, if Cruz loses his seat, that's likely the cue for Republican panic. It'd indicate that few GOP seats were truly safe and that Republicans could expect a bloodbath come 2020.

 

[rvborgh]

hi there,

i know reality was hard to take for D's in 2016. Its hard for them to take it in every day... since a lot of them still cannot accept the results of that election psychologically and they keep on watching media which is about 90% against POTUS (ie believing lies). But no the sky hasn't fallen, and things are being done to help things economically. i'm rather optimistic actually. Things will be improving and there will be no arguing with results.

A lot of things happened behind the scenes with North Korea... things that paved the way for amazing things to happen between North and the South. Now they are starting to demine the DMZ. Its not going to be easy but they will eventually be reunited. Like it or not... Trump's method of diplomacy worked. Maybe it will take a few years before very cynical folks have to admit this but it will happen

i know a lot of Russians and Ukrainians. i am Orthodox. Believe it or not US and slavic people share a lot more in common than they differ. Both sides are rather paranoid because there is a serious lack of knowledge of each other. Of course in Russia right now they have the same type of situation we have here in the US. The channels continuously blathering propaganda against the US. Here its the other way around with all the Russian collusion. i am not a fan of Putin... i used to vacation in Crimea. i had friends there but i cannot visit any longer Russia has really really been unfortunate when it comes to leadership. Same for the US recently, until Trump came along and actually started putting US interests first. Like it or not we have to get along with them since they are a nuclear power. You really wanted yet another Clinton foisted upon us? It was an insane proposition.

China and the US will be fine. They are currently in a tremendous debt bubble... at the right time when things become almost unbearable for them Trump will make a great deal for the US.

Trump has already put Iran in a perilous position (riots and work stoppages everywhere, crash currency, etc)... and that is before this new phase. It should be interesting if the people there get sick of their government supporting terrorism all over the middle east, and get rid of the mullahs.

As far as trickle down economics goes? Of course money trickles down from the top of the monetary/power pyramid. Money creation (ie firstly through deficit spending and follow on bank credit/new loan expansion of credit via fraction reserve lending) comes from the top firstly... the poor at the bottom most certainly do not have the credit rating nor the collateral to create the money the economy needs. It most certainly trickles down from those at higher levels in the pyramid. This is a feature designed into the monetary system. This is exactly why there *must* always be deficit spending... to supply the base level of high powered money that the banking system needs.

The issue is not with trickle down... that is just fact. its the *rate* at which the poorer folks get it vs inflation. They get it later when prices have already adjusted. However if the economy is growing fast enough then this shouldn't be as much of a problem. With an unemployment rate as low as it is now... they should be able to prosper more.

Not really-

https://heavy.com/news/2018/09/beto-willie-nelson-rally-photos-crowd/

That was hilarious! It's like you took reality and turned it inside out. If you would have said something about Obama and Iran and how the Iran deal was how you don't negotiate with our enemies, you would get an A+ in trumpism. Why face an uncomfortable truth when you can lie and just make shit up?

Instead of acknowledging that Russia meddled in our election and continues to do so just pretend it didn't happen and call it good and ignore the attacks on our democracy for the sake of creating peace between our two countries. So what if Russia contributed to meddle in our politics and continues to create chaos and distrust in other democracies and between our allies, Russia is our friend now! Lol

Instead of dealing with China by negotiating with all its trade partners and getting them to sign on and agree with our policies and influence in the region we should totally start a trade war with the largest and fastest economic growing country in the world! What could possibly go wrong, other than our influence in the region going out the window and China and other countries looking for alternatives to US goods? We'll just call it winning and ignore the negative impact it has had on US companies. Brilliant!

Why admit that trumps handling of north Korea has been a disaster and hasn't lead to any progress other than being played just like the president's before him, when you can just declare progress like the world has never seen is being made? So what if north Korea continues developing their nuclear weapons, we'll just pretend its not happening because they said so. We'll just ignore our own intelligence agencies and just accept NK's word without any verification, because that's what peace is all about... Giving your enemies what they want and having both parties pretend that's not what's happening. Winning!

I especially liked your bit about the economy, that was great! Everyone knows, from decades of examples, that trickle down economics works and that the poor and middle class will get theirs when the economy is doing great! Its why real wages have grown so much and not just barely kept up with inflation! Only a stable genius would realize that a strong economy brings in more revenue for which to take care of the poor and military, otherwise we'd have massive amounts of debt with rising interest rates on top of it, which is why cutting taxes to reduce that revenue stream was such a good move!
/sarcasm




Holy shit!

 

[umbrella39]

Manufacturing and other blue collar jobs are not seeing their pay going up which is going to be very troubling for Trump. These are the people who elected him and even though they have seen modest improvement in getting back to work and being employed they aren't getting paid shit.

The vast majority of wage growth Trump and fanbois are touting that are seen in the Employment Cost Index is coming from service sector jobs.

This index... for those not paying attention, uninformed, or just don't give a shit because it flies in the face of their agendas is NOT adjusted for inflation. So even the people who are seeing raises in their paychecks are barely breaking even when inflation is factored in.

The people working in manufacturing and other BC jobs are actually losing more money every day because they haven't seen raises in years and things and services certainly aren't getting cheaper... Results indeed.

 

[umbrella39]

Boring and predictable meat puppet is boring and predictable... PLONKOV

 

[Jhhnn]

Boring and predictable meat puppet is boring and predictable... PLONKOV

He's all puppies & rainbows over Trump, huh? The link to the boy scout jamboree was pure propagandizing. From there, we gat a massive Gish gallop all over the map, from Trump the truth teller with an average of nearly 8 verifiable lies per day & a remarkable one day high-

On July 5, the president reached a new daily high of 79 false and misleading claims. On a monthly basis, June and July rank in first and second place, with 532 and 446 claims, respectively.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...58-days/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.1fcf4e81cd7b

From there he's pumping sunshine up our skirts about trickle down economics when the lower 50% share of income fell by a third since 1980 & that of the 50-75% range fell by a fifth. Table 5-

https://taxfoundation.org/summary-latest-federal-income-tax-data-2015-update

Which is not to mention regressive taxes at the tippy top, even before the recent tax giveaway to the rich-

As the rich become super-rich, they pay lower taxes. For real. - The Washington Post

He's a shill.