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Question Do you think GPU stock/prices will get back to normal before end of the year?

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VirtualLarry

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Aug 25, 2001
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Article about the history of ticket scalping. Haven't read the whole thing, but thought that it tangentally related to the current situation of GPU scalping.
 

GodisanAtheist

Platinum Member
Nov 16, 2006
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Geez... they haven't even finished releasing the 3000 series cards yet. Nvidia still owes us a "3050" series value option in the $250 range.
-"Owes Us" :D

If I was AMD or NV, I'd be dumping as much of my manufacturing capacity into high margin cards as possible right now. Not that I think these companies necessarily can pivot that quickly, but if they could they would.

If every $1000 - $2000 card is going to sell right now, why waste time manufacturing $250 ones?
 

blckgrffn

Diamond Member
May 1, 2003
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www.teamjuchems.com
-"Owes Us" :D

If I was AMD or NV, I'd be dumping as much of my manufacturing capacity into high margin cards as possible right now. Not that I think these companies necessarily can pivot that quickly, but if they could they would.

If every $1000 - $2000 card is going to sell right now, why waste time manufacturing $250 ones?
Especially if they can turn the 1050 ti and 2060/2060S supply back up, which is definitely the right call if they can crank the spigot wide open. If only they were available or affordable either. I mean, if you could easily buy a 1050 ti for $125 or a 2060/2060S for $250/$300 would there be that many complaints right now?

If Nvidia can't create compelling enough products to get people to upgrade from them even after a "crash" then they are doing it wrong. :p

There is just *nothing* to buy for normal people and that sucks.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
5,651
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-"Owes Us" :D

If I was AMD or NV, I'd be dumping as much of my manufacturing capacity into high margin cards as possible right now. Not that I think these companies necessarily can pivot that quickly, but if they could they would.

If every $1000 - $2000 card is going to sell right now, why waste time manufacturing $250 ones?
The $250 cards will sell as well, probably for closer to $500 or even $600. Just price them at that so there's no room for scalpers and tell anyone who complains that setting the initial price to $600 doesn't change anything except that it doesn't let the people running bots make a bunch of money from scalping the cards.

Either wait for the price of cryptocurrencies to drop enough that people stop mining with cards or just get so many cards into the market that the increase in computational power lowers the profitability enough so that miners stop buying up all of the new cards. Anything else is just wasting time on a solution that ultimately won't work.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
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Especially if they can turn the 1050 ti and 2060/2060S supply back up, which is definitely the right call if they can crank the spigot wide open. If only they were available or affordable either. I mean, if you could easily buy a 1050 ti for $125 or a 2060/2060S for $250/$300 would there be that many complaints right now?

If Nvidia can't create compelling enough products to get people to upgrade from them even after a "crash" then they are doing it wrong. :p

There is just *nothing* to buy for normal people and that sucks.
I'm curious how the performance on the new Intel Xe GPU's will be. If history repeats itself and they underperform the mainstream AMD and Nvidia cards, they might have to price them cheaper.

Like Steve from Gamers Nexus likes to say... they don't have to be good right now. They just need to exist :)
 
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ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
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-"Owes Us" :D

If I was AMD or NV, I'd be dumping as much of my manufacturing capacity into high margin cards as possible right now. Not that I think these companies necessarily can pivot that quickly, but if they could they would.

If every $1000 - $2000 card is going to sell right now, why waste time manufacturing $250 ones?
We really need to continue to have a "value" option for PC gaming to lure in new consumers. Otherwise, we'll lose an entire generation of gamers to consoles.

Most gamers can't afford to start with a $1,000 video card, but they might upgrade to one eventually once they get hooked. Personally, I doubt that I'll ever be willing to pay more than $400 for one. At that point, I might as well just get a new XBox or PS5.
 
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Feb 4, 2009
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I'm curious how the performance on the new Intel Xe GPU's will be. If history repeats itself and they underperform the mainstream AMD and Nvidia cards, they might have to price them cheaper.

Like Steve from Gamers Nexus likes to say... they don't have to be good right now. They just need to exist :)
Per something I read a few days ago so no link. Intels top end will be a good amount short of current nvidia & AMD choices, the low end should be fabulous in their category and mid range is a toss up.
Personally I am excited for a third choice, I am fine if it takes a few generations for them to refine what they have.
 

GodisanAtheist

Platinum Member
Nov 16, 2006
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We really need to continue to have a "value" option for PC gaming to lure in new consumers. Otherwise, we'll lose an entire generation of gamers to consoles.

Most gamers can't afford to start with a $1,000 video card, but they'll upgrade to one eventually once they get hooked.
-But that goes against the "Quarter to Quarter" management style virtually all publicly traded companies operate on nowadays. Long term goals? Industry health? Cultivating a consumer base?

NAW ITS GOLD RUSH INTO MINING TERRITORY FOLKS!
 

aleader

Senior member
Oct 28, 2013
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I'm trying to determine when the best time is to list my Pulse 5700XT on Ebay. I'm currently making about $130/mth USD after power cost mining Eth with it (estimating it's share of 4 cards). I paid $380 USD, so it's already paid for, and I just saw one go for $1,100 USD on EBay the other day.

When the mining price flops again, I'm guessing it will quickly drop to 1/4 of that price, although it's hard to gauge in this market. I don't see why anyone would pay that much for a 5700XT to game on with the other cards available on EBay, but I guess it isn't much slower than a 3060ti. Thoughts?
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
50,784
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Thoughts?
Sell it. Like NOW.

I've been having similar thoughts, from time to time. I just recently opened and added a GTX 1660 Super Ventus OC to my mining stable. I could have sold it for $600-700 USD on ebay, I suppose. Doubt that I would get that much on these forums, but I might be surprised.

Now it's making me $3-5/day, instead. Which, means that it will need to mine for over 100 days at that earning level to compete with me selling it. (Not counting for ebay / Paypal fees and shipping, I guess, too.)

*Shrug*. My power costs are lower than most, so I'll probably just keep mining "through the dips", until full PoS on ETH, and by then, hopefully one of the follow-on AltCoins will have gained in market cap and network size to absorb at least part of the ETH hashrate.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
50,784
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Are you being sarcastic? What are you basing that on?
Here's kind of what I'm thinking.

Right now, the market is pricing GPUs at around 100 days worth of prime earnings mining ETH.

We have until July, before EIP-1559 is implemented, then the "prime" earnings that we see today will be GONE.

Miners, at least anyone beyond n00b level, will see that. Meaning, that they could still ROI the cards, if you hypothetically sold your card to another miner, around now-ish. As it gets closer to EIP-1559 drop time, miners are going to be correspondingly less likely to buy your card at today's elevated prices. (Demand will drop from miners.)

And then, in July, once EIP-1559 actually hits, then everyone who is mining, will really see what kind of a "hit" to revenue that they will be taking, and a lot of them, that are either recent miners, or over-paid for their cards, will be like rats on a sinking ship, scrambling to sell their cards, before this news trickles out to the gamers.

Assuming that the hit is substantial enough to cause miners to stop mining, then it's going to be too late to get premium prices for your card(s) if you wait much longer.
 
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aleader

Senior member
Oct 28, 2013
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Here's kind of what I'm thinking.

Right now, the market is pricing GPUs at around 100 days worth of prime earnings mining ETH.

We have until July, before EIP-1559 is implemented, then the "prime" earnings that we see today will be GONE.

Miners, at least anyone beyond n00b level, will see that. Meaning, that they could still ROI the cards, if you hypothetically sold your card to another miner, around now-ish. As it gets closer to EIP-1559 drop time, miners are going to be correspondingly less likely to buy your card at today's elevated prices. (Demand will drop from miners.)

And then, in July, once EIP-1559 actually hits, then everyone who is mining, will really see what kind of a "hit" to revenue that they will be taking, and a lot of them, that are either recent miners, or over-paid for their cards, will be like rats on a sinking ship, scrambling to sell their cards, before this news trickles out to the gamers.

Assuming that the hit is substantial enough to cause
Ok, thanks. That's pretty much exactly what I was thinking. I was targeting end of March, early April to start selling cards. I haven't sold anything on Ebay in several years....so here goes ;)
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
50,784
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I'd try to get current market rates for your card, don't underprice it too much, but get it on the market.

But also make sure that you can manage to get along without it.
 

aleader

Senior member
Oct 28, 2013
479
141
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I'd try to get current market rates for your card, don't underprice it too much, but get it on the market.

But also make sure that you can manage to get along without it.
Yah, I'll put it into an auction and start above what I think it's worth. I keep going over that 'get along without it', but I have a 3070 in my main rig, and still have another 1660 Super for the boy's PC. The other one has a 3060ti in his. I've been pretty successful getting cards from Memory Express just by getting my name on a list for a certain card. It's tough though to let go of any cards right now that are capable of gaming at 1440p.
 
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blckgrffn

Diamond Member
May 1, 2003
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www.teamjuchems.com
Yah, I'll put it into an auction and start above what I think it's worth. I keep going over that 'get along without it', but I have a 3070 in my main rig, and still have another 1660 Super for the boy's PC. The other one has a 3060ti in his. I've been pretty successful getting cards from Memory Express just by getting my name on a list for a certain card. It's tough though to let go of any cards right now that are capable of gaming at 1440p.
I am going the CL route. Cash is king. Ebay hits hard unless you get some sort of listing deal.
 
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Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
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We really need to continue to have a "value" option for PC gaming to lure in new consumers. Otherwise, we'll lose an entire generation of gamers to consoles.

Most gamers can't afford to start with a $1,000 video card, but they might upgrade to one eventually once they get hooked. Personally, I doubt that I'll ever be willing to pay more than $400 for one. At that point, I might as well just get a new XBox or PS5.
It really doesn't matter what you think the industry needs. The cold hard truth is that miners will pay twice MSRP or even more than that for GPUs right now, so guess where those GPUs are going to wind up. It doesn't even matter how much of a gamer someone is because eventually there comes a price where they gladly sell their GPU. About the only type of person who doesn't do this is someone oblivious to everything going on in the market right now. You can't even get an Xbox or a PS5 for a reasonable price right now because those are being scalped in much the same way.

Meanwhile the next generation of gamers are going to get along fine with an APU or the integrated graphics which are generally doing quite well at 720p and even offering reasonable 1080p performance in some of the more popular, but not demanding PC titles. The reality is that most gamers won't even buy a $330 GPU which excludes everything that AMD and Nvidia have released so far, even if we were just going by MSRP. Eventually we'll get far enough down the stack that the cards are useless for mining or that the graphics just gets rolled in to an APU because it's pointless to sell as a stand alone card.

I'm getting tired of arguments about PC gaming going away. If the arguments had any merit we wouldn't have a PC gaming market at all right now because the last mining boom would have destroyed the market for same reasons. Of course that didn't happen, so maybe the sky isn't falling. Maybe it's just the double-whammy of the consoles being new and relatively the closest to PC performance that they'll ever be, but in two years the performance won't be anywhere near impressive and lack of keyboard and mouse will still mean they're incapable of the kind of experiences that PCs offer.
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,017
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It really doesn't matter what you think the industry needs. The cold hard truth is that miners will pay twice MSRP or even more than that for GPUs right now, so guess where those GPUs are going to wind up. It doesn't even matter how much of a gamer someone is because eventually there comes a price where they gladly sell their GPU. About the only type of person who doesn't do this is someone oblivious to everything going on in the market right now. You can't even get an Xbox or a PS5 for a reasonable price right now because those are being scalped in much the same way.

Meanwhile the next generation of gamers are going to get along fine with an APU or the integrated graphics which are generally doing quite well at 720p and even offering reasonable 1080p performance in some of the more popular, but not demanding PC titles. The reality is that most gamers won't even buy a $330 GPU which excludes everything that AMD and Nvidia have released so far, even if we were just going by MSRP. Eventually we'll get far enough down the stack that the cards are useless for mining or that the graphics just gets rolled in to an APU because it's pointless to sell as a stand alone card.

I'm getting tired of arguments about PC gaming going away. If the arguments had any merit we wouldn't have a PC gaming market at all right now because the last mining boom would have destroyed the market for same reasons. Of course that didn't happen, so maybe the sky isn't falling. Maybe it's just the double-whammy of the consoles being new and relatively the closest to PC performance that they'll ever be, but in two years the performance won't be anywhere near impressive and lack of keyboard and mouse will still mean they're incapable of the kind of experiences that PCs offer.
Perhaps mining dips and PC gaming goes back to normal. Alternatively, so-called "alt coins" increase in value and the ETH changes mean nothing to mining in general. Demand doesn't fall and GPU's remain a memory of times past for gamers, and nothing more beyond that. If this scenario plays out, then how many years can the industry withstand it? The GPU is the heart of the entire PC gaming industry. If gamers can't get GPUs for two years, that's two years that people are far less likely to get a fancy motherboard, keyboard, mouse, new games, fast RAM kits, fancy coolers, fancy PC cases, gaming monitors, headphones and headsets etc etc etc. Without gamers getting GPUs, it all goes to hell because while GPUs may sell like crazy to miners, those people aren't buying any of these other things in sufficient quantities.
If 4 year old mid range GPU's continue to sell for $800, then there will be console gaming and that's it. You think it won't effect anything? With reduced sales volume in all other industry areas, the first thing to happen is prices will increase, further reducing demand for those items. A healthy GPU market that gamers can afford is absolutely critical to the entire industry. I'd expect it to damage media sites like this one as well. Who cares about the release of a new mining GPU that costs $3000 if you aren't a miner? If I can't get a new GPU, I'm far less interested in reading about a fast new hard drive or even a CPU release. I just won't care if it doesn't relate to PC gaming. PC gaming has always received less attention from developers than the consoles have. If PC game sales dip even further due to a lack of GPUs, then forget it.
There are so many people right now who want to build a gaming rig and can't. This is absolutely hurting the industry.
 
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