• Guest, The rules for the P & N subforum have been updated to prohibit "ad hominem" or personal attacks against other posters. See the full details in the post "Politics and News Rules & Guidelines."

Question Do you think GPU stock/prices will get back to normal before end of the year?

Page 16 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

blckgrffn

Diamond Member
May 1, 2003
7,714
931
126
www.teamjuchems.com
There are so many people right now who want to build a gaming rig and can't. This is absolutely hurting the industry.
While you're not wrong per se, I would point out that every day there are deals on XPS and Omen PC's with 1660 ti/supers for ~$700. I just bought an HP Pavillion with Zen 2 and 1650 Super for $440 shipped. You can absolutely game on these setups.

There are still regularly deals with Turing GPUs and more capable all around specs around the $1k to $1,200 range.

If that seems really expensive, well only relative to prices that were really low in the last few years.

If you aren't a snob about gaming and willing to buy a rig, you can absolutely PC game right now.

Heck, a couple weeks back you could get a XPS Dell with 5700xt for ~$800. I literally just got a cash offer for my card @ $780. IDK wtf is going on some days.

That doesn't even cover the decent gaming laptops (I find this ludicrous, because I don't think comet lake + ampere is a great way to get your gaming on in a tiny form factor but what do I know) that are constantly available.

The only PC gamers that are pinched, really, are builders. I don't think we are even close to the majority of PC gamers.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lightmanek

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
23,672
1,539
126
Here's kind of what I'm thinking.

Right now, the market is pricing GPUs at around 100 days worth of prime earnings mining ETH.

We have until July, before EIP-1559 is implemented, then the "prime" earnings that we see today will be GONE.

Miners, at least anyone beyond n00b level, will see that. Meaning, that they could still ROI the cards, if you hypothetically sold your card to another miner, around now-ish. As it gets closer to EIP-1559 drop time, miners are going to be correspondingly less likely to buy your card at today's elevated prices. (Demand will drop from miners.)

And then, in July, once EIP-1559 actually hits, then everyone who is mining, will really see what kind of a "hit" to revenue that they will be taking, and a lot of them, that are either recent miners, or over-paid for their cards, will be like rats on a sinking ship, scrambling to sell their cards, before this news trickles out to the gamers.

Assuming that the hit is substantial enough to cause miners to stop mining, then it's going to be too late to get premium prices for your card(s) if you wait much longer.
There are other cryptocurrencies to mine with a GPU besides Ethereum. I doubt that one small change in the Ethereum protocol is going to suddenly cause mining to become unprofitable overnight, as much as I might want that to happen.
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,064
1,857
126
While you're not wrong per se, I would point out that every day there are deals on XPS and Omen PC's with 1660 ti/supers for ~$700. I just bought an HP Pavillion with Zen 2 and 1650 Super for $440 shipped. You can absolutely game on these setups.

There are still regularly deals with Turing GPUs and more capable all around specs around the $1k to $1,200 range.

If that seems really expensive, well only relative to prices that were really low in the last few years.

If you aren't a snob about gaming and willing to buy a rig, you can absolutely PC game right now.

Heck, a couple weeks back you could get a XPS Dell with 5700xt for ~$800. I literally just got a cash offer for my card @ $780. IDK wtf is going on some days.

That doesn't even cover the decent gaming laptops (I find this ludicrous, because I don't think comet lake + ampere is a great way to get your gaming on in a tiny form factor but what do I know) that are constantly available.

The only PC gamers that are pinched, really, are builders. I don't think we are even close to the majority of PC gamers.
OK, at this time I will now admit that I actually forgot there are other ways to get a PC than to build one. Speaking of prebuilts though, aren't miners buying those up for the GPU's? I'd fully expect them to just buy every single prebuilt and take the GPUs out. I mean why not? They're already filling their garages with laptops and mining on those.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
50,897
6,315
126
The GPU is the heart of the entire PC gaming industry.
This is decidedly NOT true.

Before PC gaming de-volved into "Murder simulators", and "casinos for children" (aka "Lootbox games"), and before "3D Accelerators" became even a thing, there were plenty of awesome games on the PC.

Wolfenstein 3D (ran on a 286! No 3D accelerator required!), and games like LookingGlass Technologies' Ultima Underworld: The Stygian Abyss. (3D image warping, all in software, running on a 386!)

To say nothing about the Commander Keen, Halloween Harry, and even "Zone66" (required 386 CPU). NONE required or utilized 3D accelerators.

Also, Asheron's Call, a 3D MMORPG, BEFORE 3D Accelerators! (*Slight plug there, I worked on that project, in another life.)

Sure, today, 3D accellerators really add value to a PC Gaming setup. But there were days before they existed, and PC gaming was alive and well. (Remember Space Quest, King's Quest, Quest For Glory, The Black Cauldron?)

Edit: Wing Commander!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Leeea

blckgrffn

Diamond Member
May 1, 2003
7,714
931
126
www.teamjuchems.com
OK, at this time I will now admit that I actually forgot there are other ways to get a PC than to build one. Speaking of prebuilts though, aren't miners buying those up for the GPU's? I'd fully expect them to just buy every single prebuilt and take the GPUs out. I mean why not? They're already filling their garages with laptops and mining on those.
Anything with best mining cards - 3060 ti, 3080 are still relative unobtanium, the products are in stock for a while but you are playing a delayed shipping (by weeks/months) game. But yeah, 1660s, some 2060s and some 3070 rigs are available on the regular.

I mean you are stuck with a lower end XPS or crazy Aurora chassis and limited bios, no third gen Ryzen, etc. but you can get them all the time.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
50,897
6,315
126
OK, at this time I will now admit that I actually forgot there are other ways to get a PC than to build one. Speaking of prebuilts though, aren't miners buying those up for the GPU's? I'd fully expect them to just buy every single prebuilt and take the GPUs out. I mean why not? They're already filling their garages with laptops and mining on those.
Wait until they find out that they can mine on ... Microwave oven CPUs... and DishWasher CPUS.... and Electric Toothbrush CPUs.... (etc).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Leeea

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
23,672
1,539
126
Perhaps mining dips and PC gaming goes back to normal. Alternatively, so-called "alt coins" increase in value and the ETH changes mean nothing to mining in general. Demand doesn't fall and GPU's remain a memory of times past for gamers, and nothing more beyond that. If this scenario plays out, then how many years can the industry withstand it? The GPU is the heart of the entire PC gaming industry. If gamers can't get GPUs for two years, that's two years that people are far less likely to get a fancy motherboard, keyboard, mouse, new games, fast RAM kits, fancy coolers, fancy PC cases, gaming monitors, headphones and headsets etc etc etc. Without gamers getting GPUs, it all goes to hell because while GPUs may sell like crazy to miners, those people aren't buying any of these other things in sufficient quantities.
If 4 year old mid range GPU's continue to sell for $800, then there will be console gaming and that's it. You think it won't effect anything? With reduced sales volume in all other industry areas, the first thing to happen is prices will increase, further reducing demand for those items. A healthy GPU market that gamers can afford is absolutely critical to the entire industry. I'd expect it to damage media sites like this one as well. Who cares about the release of a new mining GPU that costs $3000 if you aren't a miner? If I can't get a new GPU, I'm far less interested in reading about a fast new hard drive or even a CPU release. I just won't care if it doesn't relate to PC gaming. PC gaming has always received less attention from developers than the consoles have. If PC game sales dip even further due to a lack of GPUs, then forget it.
There are so many people right now who want to build a gaming rig and can't. This is absolutely hurting the industry.
It also means that we aren't going to have any breakthrough improvements in graphics for a while. There is no point in releasing a stunning new game that only runs well on new Geforce RTX 3000 series or Radeon 6000 series cards when most of those cards are currently in mining farms. Instead, they'll have to dumb down the graphics to something basic enough that will run decently on an APU. At that point, you might as well just play it on a console.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Leeea

aleader

Senior member
Oct 28, 2013
487
145
116
I am going the CL route. Cash is king. Ebay hits hard unless you get some sort of listing deal.
I listed it a while ago on Kijiji and didn't get any bites at $780 CAD, other than from guys in Quebec (they all have hydro power). People are cheap on those sites (actually they just don't seem to want to get fleeced ;)). Lots of lowballs. Other than the final 10% fee, what other fees am I missing? The listing was free (or is it $0.30?). I'm also in a small city of 37,000, and the next so-called 'big' city of 250,000 is 1 1/2 hrs away (this is wide-open Canada afterall), so I need a bigger market too.
 
Last edited:

SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
3,506
1,958
136
Personally, I doubt that I'll ever be willing to pay more than $400 for one. At that point, I might as well just get a new XBox or PS5.
Was pretty much my thinking. Thought about buying a 2070 Super last year and then thought how ridiculous that sounded to buy a $500 card that would be around the power of the upcoming consoles that were $500, especially when getting that card would require me to do another $500 upgrade to a Ryzen 3700x based platform to not bottleneck the 2070S to hell (currently running a 4C/8T Haswell chip). Ended up deciding my next gen gaming would be on PS5 and that I'd get a 1660S for half the price which would be capable of playing all the PS4 gen games at 60 fps in the interim.
 

aleader

Senior member
Oct 28, 2013
487
145
116
I'm getting tired of arguments about PC gaming going away. If the arguments had any merit we wouldn't have a PC gaming market at all right now because the last mining boom would have destroyed the market for same reasons. Of course that didn't happen, so maybe the sky isn't falling. Maybe it's just the double-whammy of the consoles being new and relatively the closest to PC performance that they'll ever be, but in two years the performance won't be anywhere near impressive and lack of keyboard and mouse will still mean they're incapable of the kind of experiences that PCs offer.
I get what you're saying, but I have two teens with lots of friends who would suggest otherwise. Consoles are all they care about (other than my son, who is only in it because I am). This site tends to be very 'old' remember. I would guess the average age on here is around 45+? The last mining boom also didn't coincide with COVID and the long-lasting changes that that is going to bring.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Leeea

SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
3,506
1,958
136
While you're not wrong per se, I would point out that every day there are deals on XPS and Omen PC's with 1660 ti/supers for ~$700. I just bought an HP Pavillion with Zen 2 and 1650 Super for $440 shipped. You can absolutely game on these setups.

There are still regularly deals with Turing GPUs and more capable all around specs around the $1k to $1,200 range.

If that seems really expensive, well only relative to prices that were really low in the last few years.

If you aren't a snob about gaming and willing to buy a rig, you can absolutely PC game right now.

Heck, a couple weeks back you could get a XPS Dell with 5700xt for ~$800. I literally just got a cash offer for my card @ $780. IDK wtf is going on some days.

That doesn't even cover the decent gaming laptops (I find this ludicrous, because I don't think comet lake + ampere is a great way to get your gaming on in a tiny form factor but what do I know) that are constantly available.

The only PC gamers that are pinched, really, are builders. I don't think we are even close to the majority of PC gamers.
I don't think you can really trust Dell XPS for higher end gaming PCs. Couldn't believe the way their garbage cooler and single channel RAM murdered the performance of a 3070 in this system for example:

 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
7,409
2,098
136
Per something I read a few days ago so no link. Intels top end will be a good amount short of current nvidia & AMD choices, the low end should be fabulous in their category and mid range is a toss up.
Personally I am excited for a third choice, I am fine if it takes a few generations for them to refine what they have.
The 512EU DG2 supposedly clocks at 1.8GHz with 256-bit GDDR6 memory.

Spec-wise it's comparable to the RTX 3070. The RTX 3070 has 20TFlops but it's lacking in other aspects such as ROP/TMU/Memory bandwidth.

The Xe LP with 96EUs has 24 ROP/48 TMUs so if we quadruple that we end up with 96 ROP/192 TMUs and with GDDR6 memory it's comparable to the RTX 3070(actually such Xe HPG will have 8 more TMUs lol).

If they price it right and get it early enough so it gets out during the time when the demand is sky high like right now they have a chance. But when they'll get it out is the biggest issue.

There are other cryptocurrencies to mine with a GPU besides Ethereum. I doubt that one small change in the Ethereum protocol is going to suddenly cause mining to become unprofitable overnight, as much as I might want that to happen.
Yea I don't think EIP-1559 will cause a crash in prices. It might reduce it but a dip that's all.

Prices are increasing in all categories not just computers. I expect the trend to continue.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
5,756
2,520
136
Perhaps mining dips and PC gaming goes back to normal. Alternatively . . .

MASSIVE AMOUNT OF HYPOTHETICALS
If you want to speculate that much, there's a perfectly good cryptocurrency market full of other individuals willing to engage in a lot of what ifs and pie-in-the-sky thinking. Seriously, you're starting to sound like a junkie that needs a new high-end GPU fix or life just won't. It just won't!

If you think the PC gaming industry will wither because of a small number of people who want to play games that are mostly console ports on a high-end GPU won't be able to do that, then I have to question if the PC gaming industry was ever alive to begin with or hadn't died over a decade ago.

Meanwhile, in the real world, the PC gaming market contains a massive number of games that aren't available on consoles and likely never will be. They also don't require a GTX xx80 to run and aren't less enjoyable to play even if you're running them on integrated graphics from an APU. I would imagine most would run on a PC from a decade ago without a hitch.

PC gaming will always exist (and be great) because anyone can publish their games without needing the consent of one of the big three console manufacturers. Most of the games I've enjoyed most in the last five years have been smaller titles from small studios or indie developers that may have never seen the light of day if it weren't for the ability to just create something and put it out there. None of them required a particularly powerful GPU either.
 

blckgrffn

Diamond Member
May 1, 2003
7,714
931
126
www.teamjuchems.com
I listed it a while ago on Kijiji and didn't get any bites at $780 CAD, other than from guys in Quebec (they all have hydro power). People are cheap on those sites (actually they just don't seem to want to get fleeced ;)). Lots of lowballs. Other than the final 10% fee, what other fees am I missing? The listing was free (or is it $0.30?). I'm also in a small city of 37,000, and the next so-called 'big' city of 250,000 is 1 1/2 hrs away (this is wide-open Canada afterall), so I need a bigger market too.
You're pretty much right on. There is shipping too, and the hassle if some idiot "wins" the auction but then never pays. It just is what it is. Here in the states the buy pays sales tax too, so the state gets 3-7% and eBay gets their 10% and just feels like a lot of overhead.

I also like the "you bought it now it's yours never talk to me again" factor of meeting up.
 

blckgrffn

Diamond Member
May 1, 2003
7,714
931
126
www.teamjuchems.com
I don't think you can really trust Dell XPS for higher end gaming PCs. Couldn't believe the way their garbage cooler and single channel RAM murdered the performance of a 3070 in this system for example:

They aren't high end, that's Alienware in Dell speak. XPS is for faster personal computers. Which is a long way of saying I agree with you but you can still get good versions of these chassis if you pay attention and do your research.

I don't watch videos for that sort of stuff, but many times yeah, you gotta add another stick of ram to those. And the coolers are what they are. Many of them have one fan so you are really relying on the throttling of everything to keep it working. There is a reason we all build our PCs here. Except for few guys who might chime in. Or any Mac users :D

But... you can buy a whole XPS for what the GPU would cost on the open market, so it is what it is. A 10400 and a 1660 are probably going to live a much happier life in that chassis.
 
Last edited:

aleader

Senior member
Oct 28, 2013
487
145
116
Yea I don't think EIP-1559 will cause a crash in prices. It might reduce it but a dip that's all.

Prices are increasing in all categories not just computers. I expect the trend to continue.
Maybe not prices, but it will seriously cut profits to miners, that's a fact (as prices plummet as we speak). This will cause an exit of the part-timers and noobs that are just doing it because of the high profits ATM. Other than Ravencoin (which some exchanges don't even accept), there is nothing even close to as profitable as Ethereum for miners.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VirtualLarry

maddogmcgee

Senior member
Apr 20, 2015
299
166
116
If you think the PC gaming industry will wither because of a small number of people who want to play games that are mostly console ports on a high-end GPU won't be able to do that, then I have to question if the PC gaming industry was ever alive to begin with or hadn't died over a decade ago.
I have to agree with you here. Some people on this forum think that Call of Duty 27 and whatever Ray Tracing game that just came out are the only games people play. I am a PC gamer because I like the games that you can really only play on PC - strategy and RTS. All but 2 of the games in my steam favourites play well at 1440p on a rx580 from 4 years ago.

I doubt most people who don't visit tech forums even know that gaming systems are inflated at the moment.
 

Attachments

  • Like
Reactions: Leeea and Mopetar

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
7,409
2,098
136
Maybe not prices, but it will seriously cut profits to miners, that's a fact (as prices plummet as we speak).
I meant GPU prices crashing, not Eth.

EIP-1559 doesn't eliminate profits to miners completely. Right now high transactions result in all going to them. But EIP-1559 will burn some of them. Still if there are lot of transactions profits for miners will be better than otherwise.

I basically play SC2 on my rig. It’s uh... up to the challenge 😃
Yea I'm playing Starcraft Universe mod using the damaged GTX 970 I bought from eBay and repaired.
 

SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
3,506
1,958
136
I basically play SC2 on my rig. It’s uh... up to the challenge 😃
I play hanafuda and visual novels on mine now. Oh, and Persona 4 Golden. 😃

Price to performance is a long way away from catching the consoles right now. Even before the mining boom it was a long long way away. When I built my Xeon E3-1231v3 + GTX 970 system in 2014 it cost 2x as much as a PS4 to run at 2x the framerate and 1 to 1 performance to price gains are always awesome. But good luck getting previous gen flagship performance for $330 ever again like you could with the 970.
 
  • Like
Reactions: blckgrffn

aleader

Senior member
Oct 28, 2013
487
145
116
I have to agree with you here. Some people on this forum think that Call of Duty 27 and whatever Ray Tracing game that just came out are the only games people play. I am a PC gamer because I like the games that you can really only play on PC - strategy and RTS. All but 2 of the games in my steam favourites play well at 1440p on a rx580 from 4 years ago.

I doubt most people who don't visit tech forums even know that gaming systems are inflated at the moment.
I'm with you in that the only games I play on PC are not available on console (DCS World, Squad, Workers & Resources SR, Satisfactory, Combat Mission, etc). If however I only played Sports, Racing and FPS/Action games (I do also play the Dirt Rally games), I would almost certainly have a console (if I could get one). Way cheaper, effortless 4K on a large TV, simple multiplayer, and pretty much instant-on without any of the compatibility issues of a PC.

I can't stand Call of Duty or it's ilk, but there are about 50 to 100 times as many people in the world playing that than any of the others I play. I don't think that PC gaming will die, I just think it missed a glorious opportunity to dramatically expand.

Also, if not for DCS World and Squad, I could easily play most of the games I own at over 100fps ultra 1440p with the 1060 that I sold.
 
Last edited:

aleader

Senior member
Oct 28, 2013
487
145
116
I meant GPU prices crashing, not Eth.

EIP-1559 doesn't eliminate profits to miners completely. Right now high transactions result in all going to them. But EIP-1559 will burn some of them. Still if there are lot of transactions profits for miners will be better than otherwise.
It will cut mining profits at least in half from the data and simulations that I've seen. There are several youtube videos on mining sites running the projected numbers. That will almost certainly lead to a large number of miners exiting the scene, or at least doing like I'm already doing, selling some of their cards that they don't need. There are however a lot of people it seems that either don't want or don't know how to calculate their actual costs and ROI when mining. This may keep some on longer than they should be.

For instance, I was pleasantly surprised to find my 3070 only drawing 123W at 62 MH/s...until I measured it at the wall and it was 178W. Not a big deal with my fairly low power rate, but it would be far less tempting to run my new gaming card 24/7 with half the profits. That's obviously just one of the costs, and all of this is assuming the price of Eth remains where it is and doesn't crater as it always has in the past.
 

blckgrffn

Diamond Member
May 1, 2003
7,714
931
126
www.teamjuchems.com
It will cut mining profits at least in half from the data and simulations that I've seen. There are several youtube videos on mining sites running the projected numbers. That will almost certainly lead to a large number of miners exiting the scene, or at least doing like I'm already doing, selling some of their cards that they don't need. There are however a lot of people it seems that either don't want or don't know how to calculate their actual costs and ROI when mining. This may keep some on longer than they should be.

For instance, I was pleasantly surprised to find my 3070 only drawing 123W at 62 MH/s...until I measured it at the wall and it was 178W. Not a big deal with my fairly low power rate, but it would be far less tempting to run my new gaming card 24/7 with half the profits. That's obviously just one of the costs, and all of this is assuming the price of Eth remains where it is and doesn't crater as it always has in the past.
If you are a True Believer and that crypto is the future and ETH is long term viable and they won’t fork and kill your stock pile, calculating ROI on today’s prices is silly.

Go back eight or so years and believe in your heart of hearts that BTC would sustain value over $50k for real and it would be a different calculation. Those who both believed, kept mining and HODL’d for the future are doing fine though.

I would wager some miners don’t have their eyes on today but on a more distant horizon.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lightmanek

aleader

Senior member
Oct 28, 2013
487
145
116
If you are a True Believer and that crypto is the future and ETH is long term viable and they won’t fork and kill your stock pile, calculating ROI on today’s prices is silly.

Go back eight or so years and believe in your heart of hearts that BTC would sustain value over $50k for real and it would be a different calculation. Those who both believed, kept mining and HODL’d for the future are doing fine though.

I would wager some miners don’t have their eyes on today but on a more distant horizon.
Oh, several of them do. I'm not talking about them. Nothing will change with them, you're right. I also know that a lot of those guys don't have the first clue about how to calculate time value of money and opportunity costs when they spend $20K on a bunch of video cards and equipment. Hoping ETH and BTC will go 'to the moon' is a very risky wager, especially with governments cracking down on it. Maybe it will, but I'm never gonna be able to mine enough ETH or BTC with a handful of video cards to get rich anyways.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Leeea and blckgrffn

ASK THE COMMUNITY