There are so many people right now who want to build a gaming rig and can't. This is absolutely hurting the industry.
Here's kind of what I'm thinking.
Right now, the market is pricing GPUs at around 100 days worth of prime earnings mining ETH.
We have until July, before EIP-1559 is implemented, then the "prime" earnings that we see today will be GONE.
Miners, at least anyone beyond n00b level, will see that. Meaning, that they could still ROI the cards, if you hypothetically sold your card to another miner, around now-ish. As it gets closer to EIP-1559 drop time, miners are going to be correspondingly less likely to buy your card at today's elevated prices. (Demand will drop from miners.)
And then, in July, once EIP-1559 actually hits, then everyone who is mining, will really see what kind of a "hit" to revenue that they will be taking, and a lot of them, that are either recent miners, or over-paid for their cards, will be like rats on a sinking ship, scrambling to sell their cards, before this news trickles out to the gamers.
Assuming that the hit is substantial enough to cause miners to stop mining, then it's going to be too late to get premium prices for your card(s) if you wait much longer.
While you're not wrong per se, I would point out that every day there are deals on XPS and Omen PC's with 1660 ti/supers for ~$700. I just bought an HP Pavillion with Zen 2 and 1650 Super for $440 shipped. You can absolutely game on these setups.
There are still regularly deals with Turing GPUs and more capable all around specs around the $1k to $1,200 range.
If that seems really expensive, well only relative to prices that were really low in the last few years.
If you aren't a snob about gaming and willing to buy a rig, you can absolutely PC game right now.
Heck, a couple weeks back you could get a XPS Dell with 5700xt for ~$800. I literally just got a cash offer for my card @ $780. IDK wtf is going on some days.
That doesn't even cover the decent gaming laptops (I find this ludicrous, because I don't think comet lake + ampere is a great way to get your gaming on in a tiny form factor but what do I know) that are constantly available.
The only PC gamers that are pinched, really, are builders. I don't think we are even close to the majority of PC gamers.
This is decidedly NOT true.The GPU is the heart of the entire PC gaming industry.
OK, at this time I will now admit that I actually forgot there are other ways to get a PC than to build one. Speaking of prebuilts though, aren't miners buying those up for the GPU's? I'd fully expect them to just buy every single prebuilt and take the GPUs out. I mean why not? They're already filling their garages with laptops and mining on those.
Wait until they find out that they can mine on ... Microwave oven CPUs... and DishWasher CPUS.... and Electric Toothbrush CPUs.... (etc).OK, at this time I will now admit that I actually forgot there are other ways to get a PC than to build one. Speaking of prebuilts though, aren't miners buying those up for the GPU's? I'd fully expect them to just buy every single prebuilt and take the GPUs out. I mean why not? They're already filling their garages with laptops and mining on those.
Wait until they find out that they can mine on ... Microwave oven CPUs... and DishWasher CPUS.... and Electric Toothbrush CPUs.... (etc).
Perhaps mining dips and PC gaming goes back to normal. Alternatively, so-called "alt coins" increase in value and the ETH changes mean nothing to mining in general. Demand doesn't fall and GPU's remain a memory of times past for gamers, and nothing more beyond that. If this scenario plays out, then how many years can the industry withstand it? The GPU is the heart of the entire PC gaming industry. If gamers can't get GPUs for two years, that's two years that people are far less likely to get a fancy motherboard, keyboard, mouse, new games, fast RAM kits, fancy coolers, fancy PC cases, gaming monitors, headphones and headsets etc etc etc. Without gamers getting GPUs, it all goes to hell because while GPUs may sell like crazy to miners, those people aren't buying any of these other things in sufficient quantities.
If 4 year old mid range GPU's continue to sell for $800, then there will be console gaming and that's it. You think it won't effect anything? With reduced sales volume in all other industry areas, the first thing to happen is prices will increase, further reducing demand for those items. A healthy GPU market that gamers can afford is absolutely critical to the entire industry. I'd expect it to damage media sites like this one as well. Who cares about the release of a new mining GPU that costs $3000 if you aren't a miner? If I can't get a new GPU, I'm far less interested in reading about a fast new hard drive or even a CPU release. I just won't care if it doesn't relate to PC gaming. PC gaming has always received less attention from developers than the consoles have. If PC game sales dip even further due to a lack of GPUs, then forget it.
There are so many people right now who want to build a gaming rig and can't. This is absolutely hurting the industry.
I am going the CL route. Cash is king. Ebay hits hard unless you get some sort of listing deal.
Personally, I doubt that I'll ever be willing to pay more than $400 for one. At that point, I might as well just get a new XBox or PS5.
I'm getting tired of arguments about PC gaming going away. If the arguments had any merit we wouldn't have a PC gaming market at all right now because the last mining boom would have destroyed the market for same reasons. Of course that didn't happen, so maybe the sky isn't falling. Maybe it's just the double-whammy of the consoles being new and relatively the closest to PC performance that they'll ever be, but in two years the performance won't be anywhere near impressive and lack of keyboard and mouse will still mean they're incapable of the kind of experiences that PCs offer.
While you're not wrong per se, I would point out that every day there are deals on XPS and Omen PC's with 1660 ti/supers for ~$700. I just bought an HP Pavillion with Zen 2 and 1650 Super for $440 shipped. You can absolutely game on these setups.
There are still regularly deals with Turing GPUs and more capable all around specs around the $1k to $1,200 range.
If that seems really expensive, well only relative to prices that were really low in the last few years.
If you aren't a snob about gaming and willing to buy a rig, you can absolutely PC game right now.
Heck, a couple weeks back you could get a XPS Dell with 5700xt for ~$800. I literally just got a cash offer for my card @ $780. IDK wtf is going on some days.
That doesn't even cover the decent gaming laptops (I find this ludicrous, because I don't think comet lake + ampere is a great way to get your gaming on in a tiny form factor but what do I know) that are constantly available.
The only PC gamers that are pinched, really, are builders. I don't think we are even close to the majority of PC gamers.
Per something I read a few days ago so no link. Intels top end will be a good amount short of current nvidia & AMD choices, the low end should be fabulous in their category and mid range is a toss up.
Personally I am excited for a third choice, I am fine if it takes a few generations for them to refine what they have.
There are other cryptocurrencies to mine with a GPU besides Ethereum. I doubt that one small change in the Ethereum protocol is going to suddenly cause mining to become unprofitable overnight, as much as I might want that to happen.
Perhaps mining dips and PC gaming goes back to normal. Alternatively . . .
MASSIVE AMOUNT OF HYPOTHETICALS
I listed it a while ago on Kijiji and didn't get any bites at $780 CAD, other than from guys in Quebec (they all have hydro power). People are cheap on those sites (actually they just don't seem to want to get fleeced ). Lots of lowballs. Other than the final 10% fee, what other fees am I missing? The listing was free (or is it $0.30?). I'm also in a small city of 37,000, and the next so-called 'big' city of 250,000 is 1 1/2 hrs away (this is wide-open Canada afterall), so I need a bigger market too.
I don't think you can really trust Dell XPS for higher end gaming PCs. Couldn't believe the way their garbage cooler and single channel RAM murdered the performance of a 3070 in this system for example:
Yea I don't think EIP-1559 will cause a crash in prices. It might reduce it but a dip that's all.
Prices are increasing in all categories not just computers. I expect the trend to continue.
If you think the PC gaming industry will wither because of a small number of people who want to play games that are mostly console ports on a high-end GPU won't be able to do that, then I have to question if the PC gaming industry was ever alive to begin with or hadn't died over a decade ago.
Maybe not prices, but it will seriously cut profits to miners, that's a fact (as prices plummet as we speak).
I basically play SC2 on my rig. It’s uh... up to the challenge 😃
I basically play SC2 on my rig. It’s uh... up to the challenge 😃
I have to agree with you here. Some people on this forum think that Call of Duty 27 and whatever Ray Tracing game that just came out are the only games people play. I am a PC gamer because I like the games that you can really only play on PC - strategy and RTS. All but 2 of the games in my steam favourites play well at 1440p on a rx580 from 4 years ago.
I doubt most people who don't visit tech forums even know that gaming systems are inflated at the moment.
I meant GPU prices crashing, not Eth.
EIP-1559 doesn't eliminate profits to miners completely. Right now high transactions result in all going to them. But EIP-1559 will burn some of them. Still if there are lot of transactions profits for miners will be better than otherwise.
It will cut mining profits at least in half from the data and simulations that I've seen. There are several youtube videos on mining sites running the projected numbers. That will almost certainly lead to a large number of miners exiting the scene, or at least doing like I'm already doing, selling some of their cards that they don't need. There are however a lot of people it seems that either don't want or don't know how to calculate their actual costs and ROI when mining. This may keep some on longer than they should be.
For instance, I was pleasantly surprised to find my 3070 only drawing 123W at 62 MH/s...until I measured it at the wall and it was 178W. Not a big deal with my fairly low power rate, but it would be far less tempting to run my new gaming card 24/7 with half the profits. That's obviously just one of the costs, and all of this is assuming the price of Eth remains where it is and doesn't crater as it always has in the past.
If you are a True Believer and that crypto is the future and ETH is long term viable and they won’t fork and kill your stock pile, calculating ROI on today’s prices is silly.
Go back eight or so years and believe in your heart of hearts that BTC would sustain value over $50k for real and it would be a different calculation. Those who both believed, kept mining and HODL’d for the future are doing fine though.
I would wager some miners don’t have their eyes on today but on a more distant horizon.