- Sep 18, 2011
N6 with increased EUV throughput is basically smashing towards sub-10nm.If it was cheap, yeah. That's the problem. N7 doesn't look like it's going to be cheap any time soon.
Actual real world Mendocino is cheaper than a hypothetical Monet.
However, this is not the case with 22FDX/12FDX.
22FDX is a 30% price reduction compared to TSMC 28HP and GloFo 28SHP
12FDX is a 40% price reduction compared to GloFo/Samsung 14LPP, etc.
Since $10B Mubadala purchase of FinFET from Samsung:
2014: $1.5B loss
2015: $1.3B loss
2016: $0.4B loss
2017: $1.2B loss <-- AMD ramp
2018: $2.7B loss <-- GloFo peaks 14LPP production
2019: $1.3B loss <-- AMD shifts orders to TSMC(CPU/GPU)
2020: $1.3B loss <-- GloFo ramps up older nodes and more AMD to TSMC(APU/Semi-custom)
2021: $0.25B loss <-- GloFo provides boosted supply of older nodes
8 year average of ~1.3B loss
2014: $8.0B gain
2015: $9.7B gain
2016: $10.2B gain
2017: $11.6B gain
2018: $11.9B gain
2019: $11.8B gain
2020: $18.1B gain
2021: $21.0B gain
Increase what AMD pays via 12LP+/12LP++ super-price-hike.
Decrease what themselves pay via 12FDX lower-price but higher-profit.
N7 is $9000
N6 is $6000
EUV machines go bbrrrrrrrrrrrttt:
14LPP/12LP/12LP+ has no high volume customers to go against the sub-50% utilization rate at Malta. Nor did FinFETs have any incentive caused by customer demand to go to China(failed Chengdu), Europe(Dresden), or Singapore(Woodlands)...
(Chengdu dropped because of Simgui and Zingsemi 300mm FDSOI wafers wouldn't be ready at 2019, basically both were targeting 2022-2023.
Simgui = 800K wafers
Zingsemi = 600K wafers
Soitec by Mid-2025:
Pasir Ris = +1M wafers
Bernin II = +1M wafers
3rd fab before FY26 = +1M wafers
All three fabs = ~7M FDSOI or RFSOI do to Leti/SOITEC FD on RF and RF on FD process)
12FDX has Automotive/Aerospace/Quantum-AI-NewCompute/Home/etc customers and more from 22FDX->12FDX track and 14LPP/12LP/12LP+->12FDX track.
As far as I can tell most demand for AMD is the quad-core Chromebooks (Picasso-C, etc). Dali/Pollock basically dropped dead. Which is probably why Picasso-H appeared in Tesla, because increased Chromebook led to more Picasso out.$500M for a single year is a lot of wafers assuming 12LP+ is cheap (compared to TSMC). You figure demand for the existing Zen 3 products will be gone by 2025. Chromebooks would make sense but you figure Dali and Picasso won't cut it then. So that's where the discrepancy is.
3250C ~70$ to 3500C ~100$ given U-space => Same machine cost
The existence of Mendocino and Cezanne chromebooks and Raphael and Genoa moving away from GloFo IODs. Will cause GlobalFoundries a wafer throughput crash by -90% within 2023.