There is also the gapping hole for Geode, Sempron, etc.
32nm PDSOI -> 28nm Bulk= ~6 million units, Low ASP
40nm Bulk -> 28nm Bulk = ~6 million units, Low ASP
[14-12] -> [7-6/5-4] -> 3 = ~3 to ~4 million units, High ASP
Based on supply/demand:
22FDX-> 12FDX -> 6FDX = ~8 to ~9 million units, Low ASP
Geode GX 400 MHz, 3.6W TDP <-- 2002 // EOL: 2012
Geode LX 500 MHz, 3.6W TDP <-- 2005 // EOL: 2019
G-T16R 615 MHz, 4.5W TDP <-- 2011 // EOL: 2021
GX-210JA 1 GHz*2, 6W TDP <-- 2013 // EOL: 2023
GX-210KL 1 GHz*2, 4.5W TDP <-- 2016 // EOL: 2021
GX212JJ & GX215JJ 1.2-1.5 to 1.6-2.0 GHz*2, 6W <-- 2018 // EOL: 2021
Geode LX was introduced with the $45 SEP.
Bobcat, Jaguar, Puma, Puma+ had an average $50 price.
Stoney-Excavator had an average <$40 price.
Geode LX = ~100 mm2 (4cm*4cm package, paste rim on bottom of package looks like ~1cm*~1cm)
Bobcat = ~75 mm2
Jaguar/Puma/Puma+ = ~107 mm2 (larger die + 1.3x the cost of 40nm)
Excavator = ~125 mm2 (larger die + depreciated node(production insert when 28nm had lower than 40nm gate cost))
Why there is no G-series with Zen:
Zen = ~150 mm2 (Larger die + 1.95x the cost of 28nm)
Zen isn't in the linear-area IPC growth but in the exponential-area IPC growth region.
Jaguar on 14nm = 1.79+1.79= 3.58 versus 5.5 mm2 w/ CMT-Jag 14nm = ~2.7 mm2
How expensive to design, get processed wafers, and get low-power it makes sense to use 22FDX instead, as well as reviving the most successful niche.
AMD is 6th in wafer purchases and 1st in revenue for GloFo.
Qualcomm is 1st in wafer purchases and 2nd in revenue; 2021E is Qualcomm taking 1st place from AMD.
Low volume of wafers => lower utilization of Malta => Lower revenue to income contribution(It's outright negative).
In turn going to 22FDX means Dresden/22FDX, Malta/22FDX, Singapore/22FDX utilizing all AMD Foundry/Chartered Foundry supply chains. To GlobalFoundries this is more robust on maintaining high utilization and getting higher net income.
14LPP -- 50% Revenue = 1/4th of volume
28BLK -- 50% Revenue = 3/4th of volume
25% volume(14nm) versus 75% volume(28nm) -> 20%(1/2th 2H for no 28nm orders) volume for 2021, 10%(1/4th for reduction of 14nm) volume for 2022, 5-0%(1/8th for reduction and 2H zero% revenue contribution) volume 2023. As GlobalFoundries opts for nodes that have cheaper expansions.
14LPP = 84CPP/78CPP to 64CPP -> too small SATP-SAQP is needed for Fin.
12FDX = 84CPP(12FD)/64CPP(10FD FEOL as 12FD+) -> remains SADP for transistor.
^-- higher SRAM density for same mask layers. It is better to wait for 12FDX+ than to enter into 12FDX early. There is also potential for sSOI in 22FDX++, since the 2014 20FD node at Albany had high mobility/sSOI as well. There has been some Leti/STM slides indicating there is a 96CPP option on 22FDX+.
I think Alder Lake-M is more of a match for Ryzen 3? I think Mendocino is lower end than that, especially since it only has 4 Zen2 cores and a tiny GPU. That is squarely in Dali/Pollock territory, and should mostly compete against Intel E-core only stuff (pentium silver etc.)
Alder Lake-N => 8c+32eu at worst to 8c+96eu at best => 128-bit DDRx
Mendocino => 4c+6cu at worst to 4c+8cu at best => 128-bit DDRx
It is still competitive sort-of. I sort of expect AMD will get Zen4c(8c)+RDNA3(?cu) out for Meteor Lake-N thou.
Example of price points going forward:
R1606G - $100 ==> R3606G(Full enable) - $160, Dual-core w/ big GPU: $120
Ryzen 3 3250U - $60 ==> Ryzen 3 6250U(Full enable) - $120, Dual-core w/ big GPU: $80
Athlon 3000G - $49 ==> Athlon 6100G(Full enable) - $109, Dual-core w/ big GPU: $69
I'm not going to hunt down units per SKU to find out average ASP. Just know that it should be going up between 14nm <-> 6nm.