Anyone have shares of AMD stock?

[AnonymouseUser]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: AnonymouseUser

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Considering that 90% of all research papers have shown that over the past 50 years P/E ratio is the leading indicator for value and long term appreciation, that's a pretty far fetched statement. All material I have read for the CFA and my job, which is a damn huge stack, shows that "growth" is nothing more than a name for companies that are being hyped. "Growth" is for those people chasing a stupid dream that they will never reach, and spend way too much money to chase it. Personally, I will take Warren Buffet's style and that of most other long-run successful managers over some silly idea that growth %, a short-term measurement, will lead to long-term performance.

To think that AMD is going to continue that "growth" is foolish, to think that Intel won't come back is even more so. AMD may be landing huge OEM wins, but they are weak in many other areas.

So based on your logic, Microsoft is a better buy now @ $24, while their growth is stagnant at best, vs 15 years ago @ $67.50 ($1.22, split adjusted), when they were still growing by huge percentages? I guarantee MSFT's P/E ratio was much higher then.

We are in the midst of a bear market, so I wouldn't advise anyone to be buying stocks (especially tech) at this time. Instead, I would recommend cutting your losses early and preserve your capital. Once the next bull market starts though, AMD will likely rise faster than INTC because AMD is growing and INTC is not. The same may not be true in 6 months, but only time will tell.

LOL, wow, thats rich. When a market is a bear market and prices are going down, bail out! Buy high, sell low!

MS is stagnant for many reasons, but is still a strong performing company that also returns shareholder wealth through dividends and the prospect of future growth and dividends. I personally own MSFT and INTC and I have shorted AMD when it was at 34. So I have made out pretty damn well on AMD and I won't reverse for another couple weeks.

I guess you loaded up on MSFT (~$50 split adjusted) and INTC (~$75 split adjusted) after the tech bubble burst in 2000? They rebounded really well I see...

EDIT>> BTW, you don't bail at the end of a bear market, you bail at the beginning of a bear market

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: AnonymouseUser

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: AnonymouseUser

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Considering that 90% of all research papers have shown that over the past 50 years P/E ratio is the leading indicator for value and long term appreciation, that's a pretty far fetched statement. All material I have read for the CFA and my job, which is a damn huge stack, shows that "growth" is nothing more than a name for companies that are being hyped. "Growth" is for those people chasing a stupid dream that they will never reach, and spend way too much money to chase it. Personally, I will take Warren Buffet's style and that of most other long-run successful managers over some silly idea that growth %, a short-term measurement, will lead to long-term performance.

To think that AMD is going to continue that "growth" is foolish, to think that Intel won't come back is even more so. AMD may be landing huge OEM wins, but they are weak in many other areas.

So based on your logic, Microsoft is a better buy now @ $24, while their growth is stagnant at best, vs 15 years ago @ $67.50 ($1.22, split adjusted), when they were still growing by huge percentages? I guarantee MSFT's P/E ratio was much higher then.

We are in the midst of a bear market, so I wouldn't advise anyone to be buying stocks (especially tech) at this time. Instead, I would recommend cutting your losses early and preserve your capital. Once the next bull market starts though, AMD will likely rise faster than INTC because AMD is growing and INTC is not. The same may not be true in 6 months, but only time will tell.

LOL, wow, thats rich. When a market is a bear market and prices are going down, bail out! Buy high, sell low!

MS is stagnant for many reasons, but is still a strong performing company that also returns shareholder wealth through dividends and the prospect of future growth and dividends. I personally own MSFT and INTC and I have shorted AMD when it was at 34. So I have made out pretty damn well on AMD and I won't reverse for another couple weeks.

I guess you loaded up on MSFT (~$50 split adjusted) and INTC (~$75 split adjusted) after the tech bubble burst in 2000? They rebounded really well I see...

EDIT>> BTW, you don't bail at the end of a bear market, you bail at the beginning of a bear market

Nah, I loaded up recently playing a game between INTC and AMD, longing INTC and shorting AMD, while INTC hasn't gone up, I think the market is undeservedly punishing it. I guess we'll see in a couple years. I do have quite a bit of MSFT that I bought about 6 months ago, again, I am going long. Not talking 2 years, but 5-10.

 

[Quasmo]

Right now is a damn good timeto buy Both AMD and Intel are at their 52 week lows.

 

[AnonymouseUser]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: AnonymouseUser

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: AnonymouseUser

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Considering that 90% of all research papers have shown that over the past 50 years P/E ratio is the leading indicator for value and long term appreciation, that's a pretty far fetched statement. All material I have read for the CFA and my job, which is a damn huge stack, shows that "growth" is nothing more than a name for companies that are being hyped. "Growth" is for those people chasing a stupid dream that they will never reach, and spend way too much money to chase it. Personally, I will take Warren Buffet's style and that of most other long-run successful managers over some silly idea that growth %, a short-term measurement, will lead to long-term performance.

To think that AMD is going to continue that "growth" is foolish, to think that Intel won't come back is even more so. AMD may be landing huge OEM wins, but they are weak in many other areas.

So based on your logic, Microsoft is a better buy now @ $24, while their growth is stagnant at best, vs 15 years ago @ $67.50 ($1.22, split adjusted), when they were still growing by huge percentages? I guarantee MSFT's P/E ratio was much higher then.

We are in the midst of a bear market, so I wouldn't advise anyone to be buying stocks (especially tech) at this time. Instead, I would recommend cutting your losses early and preserve your capital. Once the next bull market starts though, AMD will likely rise faster than INTC because AMD is growing and INTC is not. The same may not be true in 6 months, but only time will tell.

LOL, wow, thats rich. When a market is a bear market and prices are going down, bail out! Buy high, sell low!

MS is stagnant for many reasons, but is still a strong performing company that also returns shareholder wealth through dividends and the prospect of future growth and dividends. I personally own MSFT and INTC and I have shorted AMD when it was at 34. So I have made out pretty damn well on AMD and I won't reverse for another couple weeks.

I guess you loaded up on MSFT (~$50 split adjusted) and INTC (~$75 split adjusted) after the tech bubble burst in 2000? They rebounded really well I see...

EDIT>> BTW, you don't bail at the end of a bear market, you bail at the beginning of a bear market

Nah, I loaded up recently playing a game between INTC and AMD, longing INTC and shorting AMD, while INTC hasn't gone up, I think the market is undeservedly punishing it. I guess we'll see in a couple years. I do have quite a bit of MSFT that I bought about 6 months ago, again, I am going long. Not talking 2 years, but 5-10.

Well, you were right shorting AMD. Techs have been in a bear market for months, and nearly all have gone down (small to mid cap stocks much more so than large cap stocks). Be sure to cut your losses on INTC early.

 

[BoldAsLove]

intel is goin down more
but AMD is gonna go UP UPP UP UP

 

[AnonymouseUser]

Originally posted by: Quasmo
Right now is a damn good timeto buy Both AMD and Intel are at their 52 week lows.

What happens if next month they hit new lows? What about 3 months from now? Never try to pick the bottom. Wait for the next bull market before jumping back in.

Edit >> Example: INTC hit new lows 6 months ago @ $23. INTC now sits @ $17.15.

 

[Acanthus]

Originally posted by: BoldAsLove
intel is goin down more
but AMD is gonna go UP UPP UP UP

Based on them not having a competing product with intels flagship for at least a year now?

Intel at its 52 week low is a sure fire bet... AMD is cutting off their own nuts with the ATYT aquisition.

 

[AnonymouseUser]

Originally posted by: Acanthus

Originally posted by: BoldAsLove
intel is goin down more
but AMD is gonna go UP UPP UP UP

Based on them not having a competing product with intels flagship for at least a year now?

Intel at its 52 week low is a sure fire bet... AMD is cutting off their own nuts with the ATYT aquisition.

Both INTC and AMD will likely see new lows in the next few months, but if you really think Intel's Core 2 Duo is gonna kill AMD, then please go long INTC and short AMD on Monday.

 

[Acanthus]

Originally posted by: AnonymouseUser

Originally posted by: Acanthus

Originally posted by: BoldAsLove
intel is goin down more
but AMD is gonna go UP UPP UP UP

Based on them not having a competing product with intels flagship for at least a year now?

Intel at its 52 week low is a sure fire bet... AMD is cutting off their own nuts with the ATYT aquisition.

Both INTC and AMD will likely see new lows in the next few months, but if you really think Intel's Core 2 Duo is gonna kill AMD, then please go long INTC and short AMD on Monday.

I didnt say that, im saying AMD isnt going up anytime soon.

 

[everman]

*looks back at his front page post* Yes, definitly was right about AMD, could have made money on google if bought on the downside in feb too.
I wouldn't put any money in either company right now. We'll see how this ATI deal goes with AMD. For a high risk wager right now, you can profit off of war.

 

[BoldAsLove]

AMD will sink to 17.50 then go up to 22 and stay put for awhile

 

[Firebot]

Originally posted by: BoldAsLove
AMD will sink to 17.50 then go up to 22 and stay put for awhile

I really hope you are not an investor if you seriously think that. I expect single digit for AMD in the next coming months. Seriously. AMD is going to make a massive pounding by Intel with the Conroe, they've already cut all their processor prices by 1/3. Now who in their right mind would invest in a company that cuts their margin by 1/3, and without a competitive product for at least a year?

AMD is STILL a strong short. Intel is a buy at this point. AMD's next quarter will be a monumental disaster. We'll come back here in 3 months and see who's right =).

 

[IHAVEAQUESTION]

I don't see a single reason to buy AMD at this time. Conroe hasn't come out yet, and AMD is already experiencing disastrous quarter? You would think that they can hold their own until the sales of Conroe starts kicking in. I don't know how bad or what the lowest point will be for either company, but for now it looks like at least INTC has something to hope for while AMD has none.

 

[Acanthus]

Originally posted by: Firebot

Originally posted by: BoldAsLove
AMD will sink to 17.50 then go up to 22 and stay put for awhile

I really hope you are not an investor if you seriously think that. I expect single digit for AMD in the next coming months. Seriously. AMD is going to make a massive pounding by Intel with the Conroe, they've already cut all their processor prices by 1/3. Now who in their right mind would invest in a company that cuts their margin by 1/3, and without a competitive product for at least a year?

AMD is STILL a strong short. Intel is a buy at this point. AMD's next quarter will be a monumental disaster. We'll come back here in 3 months and see who's right =).

Exactly, very strong price cuts, an enormously pricey aquisition, and no competitive product for at least 9 months =/= the stock going up AT ALL.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: BoldAsLove
intel is goin down more
but AMD is gonna go UP UPP UP UP

You are the second person who is so bold in this thread to say something like that.

One trading day later, what happened? AMD down 5%. Although now AMD is finally below my long term price target for AMD of $18. Thus, it is finally reaching the buy state. However, buying at $17.25 you won't make much profit if it does stabilize at $18 after transaction fees. And my $18/share is a long term projection. I see a big probability for AMD to go far below $17.25 in the next few months.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: AnonymouseUser
The importance of P/E ratios are way overblown. Growth is more important: AMD 52% YOY, INTC -13% YOY.

AMD is still landing huge OEM wins (Dell, IBM, Lenovo, to name a few) and will continue to grow.

AMD Q1 2006: $1.33 Billion sales, $259 Million income.
AMD Q2 2006: $1.22 Billion sales, $102 Million income.

This is your basis for growth? Seems like we need to look into more detail:

Straight from AMD itself. "Second quarter sales were down from the prior quarter primarily due to the challenging pricing environment for high-volume desktop processors which negatively impacted average selling prices (ASPs). Total microprocessor unit shipments were down four percent sequentially." So this growth company has (A) lower prices and (B) lower product shipments.

But these are all in the past, want we need to know is the future. Have you looked at Core 2 product reviews? The Intel middle-of-the-line $316 Core 2 E6600 chip is about equal in performance to AMD's top FX-62 $999 chip. Think about it. Prices for AMD must be completely slashed to remain competitive. So expect the trend I quoted above to continue. (A) Lowered prices and (B) lower product shipments. AMD has nothing good going for it for the next 1-2 years.

AMD operated at a loss for many many years straight. I bet it'll happen again. AMD stock has gone from >$15 to <$10 three times in the last five years alone (six times in the last 10 years). I fully expect that to happen again soon.

 

[Blazin Trav]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: AnonymouseUser
The importance of P/E ratios are way overblown. Growth is more important: AMD 52% YOY, INTC -13% YOY.

AMD is still landing huge OEM wins (Dell, IBM, Lenovo, to name a few) and will continue to grow.

AMD Q1 2006: $1.33 Billion sales, $259 Million income.
AMD Q2 2006: $1.22 Billion sales, $102 Million income.

This is your basis for growth? Seems like we need to look into more detail:

Straight from AMD itself. "Second quarter sales were down from the prior quarter primarily due to the challenging pricing environment for high-volume desktop processors which negatively impacted average selling prices (ASPs). Total microprocessor unit shipments were down four percent sequentially." So this growth company has (A) lower prices and (B) lower product shipments.

But these are all in the past, want we need to know is the future. Have you looked at Core 2 product reviews? The Intel middle-of-the-line $316 Core 2 E6600 chip is about equal in performance to AMD's top FX-62 $999 chip. Think about it. Prices for AMD must be completely slashed to remain competitive. So expect the trend I quoted above to continue. (A) Lowered prices and (B) lower product shipments. AMD has nothing good going for it for the next 1-2 years.

AMD operated at a loss for many many years straight. I bet it'll happen again. AMD stock has gone from >$15 to <$10 three times in the last five years alone (six times in the last 10 years). I fully expect that to happen again soon.

It doesn't really matter anymore because AMD and ATI merged so all of those facts you pulled up really have no weight anymore.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Blazin Trav


It doesn't really matter anymore because AMD and ATI merged so all of those facts you pulled up really have no weight anymore.

I hope you forgot the sarcasm tags...

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Blazin Trav
It doesn't really matter anymore because AMD and ATI merged so all of those facts you pulled up really have no weight anymore.

When it comes to mergers, you get something like 10 + 20 = ~30. A merger may be a bit positive overall so that 10 + 20 = 32 or it may be a bit negative so that 10 + 20 = 28. But mostly, it'll be roughly the sum of all parts. So we have to first look at the individual parts. I just showed you the AMD part and how it is likely to shrink in the short term. I don't know much about ATI's financial situation, do you have knowledge there that you want to share?

What you just said amounts to saying this: It is a financially ok if I want to buy a pint of toilet water for $10,000 because I'll put it in my $100,000 Porche and the combination means that the price of the toilet water has no weight anymore. Instead, I argue that it is meaningless if I put that toilet water in a Porche, the toilet water purchase was still a bad purchase. AOL+Time Warner ring any bells? No, AMD isn't as extrme as AOL was, but to ignore AOL's problems when combining with Time Warner was a very stupid move.

 

[ruffilb]

Stocks just dropped some. Might consider buying.

 

[Blazin Trav]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: Blazin Trav
It doesn't really matter anymore because AMD and ATI merged so all of those facts you pulled up really have no weight anymore.

When it comes to mergers, you get something like 10 + 20 = ~30. A merger may be a bit positive overall so that 10 + 20 = 32 or it may be a bit negative so that 10 + 20 = 28. But mostly, it'll be roughly the sum of all parts. So we have to first look at the individual parts. I just showed you the AMD part and how it is likely to shrink in the short term. I don't know much about ATI's financial situation, do you have knowledge there that you want to share?

What you just said amounts to saying this: It is a financially ok if I want to buy a pint of toilet water for $10,000 because I'll put it in my $100,000 Porche and the combination means that the price of the toilet water has no weight anymore. Instead, I argue that it is meaningless if I put that toilet water in a Porche, the toilet water purchase was still a bad purchase. AOL+Time Warner ring any bells? No, AMD isn't as extrme as AOL was, but to ignore AOL's problems when combining with Time Warner was a very stupid move.

ATI was always a pretty good buy.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Blazin Trav
ATI was always a pretty good buy.

It looks pretty volitile to me. Was it a good buy at $22/share when it dropped to $4/share a year later? I would agree with you if you said it was a good buy at <$10/share. But it has never really moved upwards (it is moving sideways in big oscillations), so to call it always a good buy is a pretty big stretch.

Looking closer ATI is one more of those companies with massive revenues but profits hovering around $0. Some quarters they have a small profit, some a small loss. Gain, this isn't the sign of something that is ALWAYS a good buy.

But lets assume ATI is a good buy. Is it a good thing to combine a temporarilly shrinking AMD with that good buy? And why do you think it shouldn't matter if AMD is temporarilly shrinking when we are discussing growth?

 

[IHAVEAQUESTION]

Actually this is a pretty bad time to buy stock in most markets. It's probably better to put your money in CD, treasury bills or other interest-bearing savings.

Having said that, both AMD and ATI CEO has just been interviewed by Bloomberg, you can watch the video on bloomberg.com.

 

[dullard]

Looks like AMD stock has had a nice few weeks. And today it is getting a massive pop to the upside, up over 4%. Time to sell it for those who bought below $18?

 

[her209]

AMD stock prices are on their way down!!! Finally...