Anyone have shares of AMD stock?

[dullard]

Two trading days later, and AMD is down another $1. Does anyone think this plunge is over yet?

I'm not ready to call it a buy until it is below $18.

 

[pmoa]

I would hold off right now. Intel is a better buy right now and you could have gotten in at like 16.90 earlier this year. Wait until AMD goes down a bit more.

 

[T9D]

I dont follow stock all that much but it seems nuts to buy AMD right now.

AMD is slashing prices like mad to compete with intels new chip that is coming out this month. Lower prices and a lesser product is going to mean much lowerer profits.

 

[LegendKiller]

Heh, AMD's PE is at almost normal ranges now, about 5 more points to go. INTC is looking like a good buy, with Conroe and the big business it's going to get from a vastly improved CPU line, I wouldn't doubt you'd see intel up significantly over the next year.

Feel sorry for the irrationally exuberant suckers who bought into AMD because they were familiar or were fanbois. *NEVER* invest based upon familiarity or belief. Invest in value.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Heh, AMD's PE is at almost normal ranges now, about 5 more points to go. INTC is looking like a good buy, with Conroe and the big business it's going to get from a vastly improved CPU line, I wouldn't doubt you'd see intel up significantly over the next year.

Feel sorry for the irrationally exuberant suckers who bought into AMD because they were familiar or were fanbois. *NEVER* invest based upon familiarity or belief. Invest in value.

I almost posted in this thread last night when I saw AMD was down 6% after market. I'm shocked it is down a full 12% this morning! AMD is at a new 52-week low. AMD is right about at the point where it is a buy. I now offically change it from a sell rating to a hold rating. I still feel AMD belongs in the $10-$18 range. So I wouldn't buy until it is far enough below $18 to make a profit when it returns to $18.

We are about 6 months after the comparison in these threads was made between Intel and AMD stock. Both have performed poorly. But it looks like INTC would have been a much better choice back then than AMD. Comparison chart. I do find it funny that Virtualgames0 hasn't come back to post in this thread.

Originally posted by: virtualgames0
[AMD] might fall a little in the next week, but not by much, and it might grow even more as AMD is still very profitable now...

So much for a bursting bubble.

AMD is only gaining marketshare and profitability now. I don't see them dropping too much. They will not drop down back to the pre athlon64 levels at this rate. Not unless Intel comes back with a fierce competitor, which doesn't seem likely at this point.

I agree 100% with your invest on value standpoint, LegendKiller.

 

[bennylong]

Hit $18 today and will only go lower with the price war going on.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

mmm when to buy? what to buy?? =/

 

[IHAVEAQUESTION]

Both stocks are doing from bad to catastrophically bad. One question to ask is "have they hit the lowest point yet?". I for one believe that Intel's stock price can't go much lower, they just posted a lower-than-expected revenue and sure INTC dropped but not by that much. I think INTC with Conroe, Merom and Woodcrest and an accelerated roadmap should have good outlook into the future (1 to 2 years).

AMD, well...the price has dropped a lot and that makes it attractive to buy. But like someone else has said before, just because the price has dropped a lot doesn't mean it's a good value to buy. I wouldn't touch AMD stock until it shows some promising signs.

 

[Miramonti]

Ouch.

 

[Christobevii3]

When AMD hits single digits again i'll buy

 

[Wnh5001]

i believe intel will remain stable for a while until the the revenue from conroe starts kicking in which will be around mid fall. Amd will continue to drop steadily, i predict it will hit 15-16, before value investors think they are getting a good price at amd's record lows and maybe keep it around that range.

 

[dnuggett]

Originally posted by: mraln
but if you want my stock of the month it is AMTD (Ameritrade). Here is why:
1) I believe next week is going to be a bullish market (a bounceback from this week's nasty selloff with bulls putting more money into the market).
2) AMTD already pre-announced that they are in line for a record quarter (this is not fully priced in yet)
3) Not only are they going to post a record quarter, but they're upping their guidance as well.
4) Earnings are coming out on the 24th. With #2 and 3 combined with 4, it's almost like a can't miss thing especially since AMTD is also *cheap (compare with SCHW, TRAD, ET, OXPS, etc.)

I wouldn't be surprised if AMTD went to 25 next week in anticipation of earnings, but I'm thinking 23 is more realistic. BTW: I have 1804 22.5/April calls (bought for about $9K) so I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I realize that this is a pure gamble (for me) but if you don't work on a timeline, AMTD is a great play.

*- By cheap I don't mean the stock price, but I mean in comparison with the other P/E ratio and % growth (which is increasing for AMTD as well).

If you want to talk stocks, feel free to PM me.

Nah, I'll pass on that PM. How'd those 22.5 calls go for you? You forgot Rickets's sell for political aspirations eh? After the div was paid of which you got none of as an options holder, and the insider sells, that stock took a dive. Who gives a sh!t about a record quarter? You think that is the time to buy? And if you think for one second that your knowledge of an ANNOUNCED record quarter wasn't priced in you're out of your mind. Any expected "pop" from a positive earnings release is nothing other than a goose chase, and if you "speculate" that way.. you'll go broke quick.

Here's to hoping you caught the short pop from 20-22 on the 19th. If not here's to taking it in the shorts. :beer:

At the time of your post AMTD closed at 20.33. It's now sitting at 15.88 down 22%.

 

[Blazin Trav]

Why would you buy in the semiconductor industry... not a good buy IMO.

Look for stronger markets/industries than tech...

 

[IHAVEAQUESTION]

Originally posted by: Blazin Trav
Why would you buy in the semiconductor industry... not a good buy IMO.

Look for stronger markets/industries than tech...

I currently hold INTC stocks but I agree with your assessment. Even with the better outlook that INTC has, it's probably not going to do much until the end of the year. I am in for the long run, so I am holding it.

 

[bennylong]

I'm going to sell my MSFT and buy INTC. INTC still have 80% market share and with the new products coming out, AMD isn't going to be gaining like they have the past 2 years.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Blazin Trav
Why would you buy in the semiconductor industry... not a good buy IMO.

Look for stronger markets/industries than tech...

Everything is a cycle. Personally, I am buying in when it's cheap.

 

[AnonymouseUser]

Originally posted by: bennylong
I'm going to sell my MSFT and buy INTC. INTC still have 80% market share and with the new products coming out, AMD isn't going to be gaining like they have the past 2 years.

INTC will bottom sometime in late December, at ~$12. AMD will continue to gain market share since 80% of Intel's production will still be obsolete Netburst cores. Core 2 Duo is actually stealing more Intel market share than AMD market share.

AMD is severely oversold out of fear that Intel can survive a price war better than AMD can (Intel will be hurt more). On top of that, the ATI rumor is hurting AMD even more, regardless of whether there is any truth to it. Not sure where it will stop, though.

The worst is still ahead for INTC.

<< Doesn't own AMD stock since being stopped out (twice) recently (I always cut my losses @ less than 10%)

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: AnonymouseUser

Originally posted by: bennylong
I'm going to sell my MSFT and buy INTC. INTC still have 80% market share and with the new products coming out, AMD isn't going to be gaining like they have the past 2 years.

INTC will bottom sometime in late December, at ~$12. AMD will continue to gain market share since 80% of Intel's production will still be obsolete Netburst cores. Core 2 Duo is actually stealing more Intel market share than AMD market share.

AMD is severely oversold out of fear that Intel can survive a price war better than AMD can (Intel will be hurt more). On top of that, the ATI rumor is hurting AMD even more, regardless of whether there is any truth to it. Not sure where it will stop, though.

The worst is still ahead for INTC.

<< Doesn't own AMD stock since being stopped out (twice) recently (I always cut my losses @ less than 10%)

Oversold? Despite a P/E ratio that is above 20? If INTC hits a price of 12, then it's P/E will be somewhere around 10. Yeah, that's completely logical for a company who has a crap-ton more profitability and equity management experience and ability.

I think you need to do some researching. AMD is riding on nothing but fanboism and irrational exuberance. INTC is getting pummeled for the same reason, except the opposite side. Any rational and smart investor would realize that INTC is a hell of a lot better buy at these prices.

Besides, if AMD buys ATI, they will undoubtedly pay a premium, further reducing the acutal worth of the company. This, of course, will be justified by "synergies" of two disperate companies. I have seen the same BS over and over in the corporate world and it's a joke. McKinsey's study has shown that more than 70% of M/A destroy shareholder value.

 

[IHAVEAQUESTION]

Originally posted by: AnonymouseUser

Originally posted by: bennylong
I'm going to sell my MSFT and buy INTC. INTC still have 80% market share and with the new products coming out, AMD isn't going to be gaining like they have the past 2 years.

INTC will bottom sometime in late December, at ~$12. AMD will continue to gain market share since 80% of Intel's production will still be obsolete Netburst cores. Core 2 Duo is actually stealing more Intel market share than AMD market share.

AMD is severely oversold out of fear that Intel can survive a price war better than AMD can (Intel will be hurt more). On top of that, the ATI rumor is hurting AMD even more, regardless of whether there is any truth to it. Not sure where it will stop, though.

The worst is still ahead for INTC.

<< Doesn't own AMD stock since being stopped out (twice) recently (I always cut my losses @ less than 10%)

AMD is not severely oversold, it's where it's at. No exiciting product coming out, a dubious attempt to acquire ATI, a strong competitor in INTC with launch of several exciting products. If this is not the time to run away from AMD I don't know when is.

And how the hell did you figure that Core 2 Duo will only steal Intel's market and not AMD's? :roll:

Your reasoning, if anything, gives a solid explanation as to why you've been stopped out twice by AMD stock.

 

[AnonymouseUser]

Originally posted by: IHAVEAQUESTION
And how the hell did you figure that Core 2 Duo will only steal Intel's market and not AMD's? :roll:

Dipshit, read what I said:

Core 2 Duo is actually stealing more Intel market share than AMD market share.

 

[Blazin Trav]

I have AMD stock and I'm holding onto it. I am also going to buy energy companies and maybe some construction companies, as well as a few financials.

 

[AnonymouseUser]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: AnonymouseUser

Originally posted by: bennylong
I'm going to sell my MSFT and buy INTC. INTC still have 80% market share and with the new products coming out, AMD isn't going to be gaining like they have the past 2 years.

INTC will bottom sometime in late December, at ~$12. AMD will continue to gain market share since 80% of Intel's production will still be obsolete Netburst cores. Core 2 Duo is actually stealing more Intel market share than AMD market share.

AMD is severely oversold out of fear that Intel can survive a price war better than AMD can (Intel will be hurt more). On top of that, the ATI rumor is hurting AMD even more, regardless of whether there is any truth to it. Not sure where it will stop, though.

The worst is still ahead for INTC.

<< Doesn't own AMD stock since being stopped out (twice) recently (I always cut my losses @ less than 10%)

Oversold? Despite a P/E ratio that is above 20? If INTC hits a price of 12, then it's P/E will be somewhere around 10. Yeah, that's completely logical for a company who has a crap-ton more profitability and equity management experience and ability.

I think you need to do some researching. AMD is riding on nothing but fanboism and irrational exuberance. INTC is getting pummeled for the same reason, except the opposite side. Any rational and smart investor would realize that INTC is a hell of a lot better buy at these prices.

Besides, if AMD buys ATI, they will undoubtedly pay a premium, further reducing the acutal worth of the company. This, of course, will be justified by "synergies" of two disperate companies. I have seen the same BS over and over in the corporate world and it's a joke. McKinsey's study has shown that more than 70% of M/A destroy shareholder value.

The importance of P/E ratios are way overblown. Growth is more important: AMD 52% YOY, INTC -13% YOY.

AMD is still landing huge OEM wins (Dell, IBM, Lenovo, to name a few) and will continue to grow.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: AnonymouseUser

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: AnonymouseUser

Originally posted by: bennylong
I'm going to sell my MSFT and buy INTC. INTC still have 80% market share and with the new products coming out, AMD isn't going to be gaining like they have the past 2 years.

INTC will bottom sometime in late December, at ~$12. AMD will continue to gain market share since 80% of Intel's production will still be obsolete Netburst cores. Core 2 Duo is actually stealing more Intel market share than AMD market share.

AMD is severely oversold out of fear that Intel can survive a price war better than AMD can (Intel will be hurt more). On top of that, the ATI rumor is hurting AMD even more, regardless of whether there is any truth to it. Not sure where it will stop, though.

The worst is still ahead for INTC.

<< Doesn't own AMD stock since being stopped out (twice) recently (I always cut my losses @ less than 10%)

Oversold? Despite a P/E ratio that is above 20? If INTC hits a price of 12, then it's P/E will be somewhere around 10. Yeah, that's completely logical for a company who has a crap-ton more profitability and equity management experience and ability.

I think you need to do some researching. AMD is riding on nothing but fanboism and irrational exuberance. INTC is getting pummeled for the same reason, except the opposite side. Any rational and smart investor would realize that INTC is a hell of a lot better buy at these prices.

Besides, if AMD buys ATI, they will undoubtedly pay a premium, further reducing the acutal worth of the company. This, of course, will be justified by "synergies" of two disperate companies. I have seen the same BS over and over in the corporate world and it's a joke. McKinsey's study has shown that more than 70% of M/A destroy shareholder value.

The importance of P/E ratios are way overblown. Growth is more important: AMD 52% YOY, INTC -13% YOY.

AMD is still landing huge OEM wins (Dell, IBM, Lenovo, to name a few) and will continue to grow.

Considering that 90% of all research papers have shown that over the past 50 years P/E ratio is the leading indicator for value and long term appreciation, that's a pretty far fetched statement. All material I have read for the CFA and my job, which is a damn huge stack, shows that "growth" is nothing more than a name for companies that are being hyped. "Growth" is for those people chasing a stupid dream that they will never reach, and spend way too much money to chase it. Personally, I will take Warren Buffet's style and that of most other long-run successful managers over some silly idea that growth %, a short-term measurement, will lead to long-term performance.

To think that AMD is going to continue that "growth" is foolish, to think that Intel won't come back is even more so. AMD may be landing huge OEM wins, but they are weak in many other areas.

 

[AnonymouseUser]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Considering that 90% of all research papers have shown that over the past 50 years P/E ratio is the leading indicator for value and long term appreciation, that's a pretty far fetched statement. All material I have read for the CFA and my job, which is a damn huge stack, shows that "growth" is nothing more than a name for companies that are being hyped. "Growth" is for those people chasing a stupid dream that they will never reach, and spend way too much money to chase it. Personally, I will take Warren Buffet's style and that of most other long-run successful managers over some silly idea that growth %, a short-term measurement, will lead to long-term performance.

To think that AMD is going to continue that "growth" is foolish, to think that Intel won't come back is even more so. AMD may be landing huge OEM wins, but they are weak in many other areas.

So based on your logic, Microsoft is a better buy now @ $24, while their growth is stagnant at best, vs 15 years ago @ $67.50 ($1.22, split adjusted), when they were still growing by huge percentages? I guarantee MSFT's P/E ratio was much higher then.

We are in the midst of a bear market, so I wouldn't advise anyone to be buying stocks (especially tech) at this time. Instead, I would recommend cutting your losses early and preserve your capital. Once the next bull market starts though, AMD will likely rise faster than INTC because AMD is growing and INTC is not. The same may not be true in 6 months, but only time will tell.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: AnonymouseUser

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Considering that 90% of all research papers have shown that over the past 50 years P/E ratio is the leading indicator for value and long term appreciation, that's a pretty far fetched statement. All material I have read for the CFA and my job, which is a damn huge stack, shows that "growth" is nothing more than a name for companies that are being hyped. "Growth" is for those people chasing a stupid dream that they will never reach, and spend way too much money to chase it. Personally, I will take Warren Buffet's style and that of most other long-run successful managers over some silly idea that growth %, a short-term measurement, will lead to long-term performance.

To think that AMD is going to continue that "growth" is foolish, to think that Intel won't come back is even more so. AMD may be landing huge OEM wins, but they are weak in many other areas.

So based on your logic, Microsoft is a better buy now @ $24, while their growth is stagnant at best, vs 15 years ago @ $67.50 ($1.22, split adjusted), when they were still growing by huge percentages? I guarantee MSFT's P/E ratio was much higher then.

We are in the midst of a bear market, so I wouldn't advise anyone to be buying stocks (especially tech) at this time. Instead, I would recommend cutting your losses early and preserve your capital. Once the next bull market starts though, AMD will likely rise faster than INTC because AMD is growing and INTC is not. The same may not be true in 6 months, but only time will tell.

LOL, wow, thats rich. When a market is a bear market and prices are going down, bail out! Buy high, sell low!

MS is stagnant for many reasons, but is still a strong performing company that also returns shareholder wealth through dividends and the prospect of future growth and dividends. I personally own MSFT and INTC and I have shorted AMD when it was at 34. So I have made out pretty damn well on AMD and I won't reverse for another couple weeks.