And there goes Countrywide....

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LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Naustica
Sorry, I thought BAC deal was one of those death spiral convertible deals with adjusting conversion rates. I see the deal has discounted fixed conversion. That's bad but it's not the death sentence like adjusting conversion. I forget most of the names of the companies that did the death spiral converts but all were pretty much pink sheet tech companies. I think eToys, Iomega, and 3dfx did them.

Jim Cramer on toxic converts

More on death spiral converts.

What that poster posted is still true. It just has a cap on conversion price so the max % of shares BAC can ultimately control is 17%. Still that's massive number of shares and dilutes shareholder value.

Plenty of hedges are short CFC due to this so expect short squeeze here and there. But downward pressure will be unrelenting due to the massive shorts. I wouldn't want to be short or long this thing. Puts or call will be the only way I'm touching this thing.

Originally posted by: compuwiz1
Layoffs don't always mean imminent doom. I see this as a restructuring, with emphasis away from the sub-prime market. As large as Countrywide is, 12,000 would not be an unreasonable number of jobs to eliminate, as their direction changes.
Some people will always get satisfaction at the possibility of someone, or some company failing. :roll:

I have never seen a company survive massive shorting.

If CW manages to survive I would extremely surprised.

What is the incentive to have the company survive?

They've lost all cash, gone 110% credit only.

Never? Here goes dave again, thinking he knows something about the capital markets.

Companies get shorted massively all of the time, yet you won't listen to that will you?

Amazingly, I sit in front of a bloomberg terminal all day and I see it, it's quite amusing to think you actually say this but know absolutely nothing at all.

Lots of companies have been where CFC is.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Naustica
Sorry, I thought BAC deal was one of those death spiral convertible deals with adjusting conversion rates. I see the deal has discounted fixed conversion. That's bad but it's not the death sentence like adjusting conversion. I forget most of the names of the companies that did the death spiral converts but all were pretty much pink sheet tech companies. I think eToys, Iomega, and 3dfx did them.

Jim Cramer on toxic converts

More on death spiral converts.

What that poster posted is still true. It just has a cap on conversion price so the max % of shares BAC can ultimately control is 17%. Still that's massive number of shares and dilutes shareholder value.

Plenty of hedges are short CFC due to this so expect short squeeze here and there. But downward pressure will be unrelenting due to the massive shorts. I wouldn't want to be short or long this thing. Puts or call will be the only way I'm touching this thing.

Originally posted by: compuwiz1
Layoffs don't always mean imminent doom. I see this as a restructuring, with emphasis away from the sub-prime market. As large as Countrywide is, 12,000 would not be an unreasonable number of jobs to eliminate, as their direction changes.
Some people will always get satisfaction at the possibility of someone, or some company failing. :roll:

I have never seen a company survive massive shorting.

If CW manages to survive I would extremely surprised.

What is the incentive to have the company survive?

They've lost all cash, gone 110% credit only.

Dave, have you ever looked at Overstock.com? (naked short selling galore and still alive).

Don't bother to tell dave that. He refuses to think that people short stocks for small movements all of the time, even "massive" shorts. He somehow thinks the only time anybody shorts a company "massively" is to take advantage of it going out of business.

Which means that every company in the world that is public will go out of business, since every one of them has been shorted "massively" at one point or another.

OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG...SOMEBODY IS SELLING GE SHORT 67 MILLION SHARES, THAT'S MASSIVE, 8 MILLION MORE THAN LAST MONTH. OMG OMG OMG OMG, ONE OF THE WORLDS ONLY AAA COMPANIES IS GOING TO DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111111111111111!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quot...t&userinput=&x=15&y=14
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,685
136
Somewhere in all this, it seems to me that the whole B of A deal is... tricky, at best, for Countrywide, as is their future in general.

Their basic business model of selling mortgages and then bundling those into MBS's has been brought into question, and they've been caught in between, holding huge amounts of currently unsaleable mortgages. It just depends on how the situation unfolds as to whether or not they have the resources to hold high risk mortgages rather than act as a pass-thru conduit.

Apparently, they were very heavily leveraged even prior to the B of A deal, so that aspect hasn't improved any. If defaults outstrip their cashflow obligations, they'll be forced to liquidate assets, as with the B of A deal, or go under.

Having learned from the Merrill-Lynch debacle with Bear Stearns, the last thing their creditors want is a public auction of any mortgages or mortgage backed securities... They'll call before they let that happen, be forced to absorb the losses internally so as not to reveal the true market value of such holdings... with the Fed bolstering their liquidity, monetizing the debt as required.

Unless the whole thing is really too big to be controlled. Obviously, I'm no financial expert, but the whole thing appears to be the result of a highly speculative marketplace on a lot of different levels. As any speculator should know, it's not all wine and roses- sooner or later, somebody loses as the market returns to a sustainable level. Other than overextended homeowners, who that'll be is hard to say.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Jhhnn
Somewhere in all this, it seems to me that the whole B of A deal is... tricky, at best, for Countrywide, as is their future in general.

Their basic business model of selling mortgages and then bundling those into MBS's has been brought into question, and they've been caught in between, holding huge amounts of currently unsaleable mortgages. It just depends on how the situation unfolds as to whether or not they have the resources to hold high risk mortgages rather than act as a pass-thru conduit.

Apparently, they were very heavily leveraged even prior to the B of A deal, so that aspect hasn't improved any. If defaults outstrip their cashflow obligations, they'll be forced to liquidate assets, as with the B of A deal, or go under.

Having learned from the Merrill-Lynch debacle with Bear Stearns, the last thing their creditors want is a public auction of any mortgages or mortgage backed securities... They'll call before they let that happen, be forced to absorb the losses internally so as not to reveal the true market value of such holdings... with the Fed bolstering their liquidity, monetizing the debt as required.

Unless the whole thing is really too big to be controlled. Obviously, I'm no financial expert, but the whole thing appears to be the result of a highly speculative marketplace on a lot of different levels. As any speculator should know, it's not all wine and roses- sooner or later, somebody loses as the market returns to a sustainable level. Other than overextended homeowners, who that'll be is hard to say.

Exactly. The ony ones that will come up Roses is the top level execs as usual.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Here we go again.

P&Nrs said Countrywide didn't need more credit.

Hmmmm well here is another $12 billion thrown in:

9-13-2007 Countrywide secures additional $12 billion in credit

Stocks advanced sharply Thursday, led by strong gains among the blue chips, after mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. said it had lined up added financing

Investors, who have been nervous about the sinking housing market and squeezed credit markets damaging the economy, were relieved to hear that Countrywide secured $12 billion in credit.

Countrywide rose $2.24, or 13 percent, to $18.86 after the company added to its borrowing capacity.

The move comes after Countrywide borrowed $11.5 billion and sold a $2 billion stake to Bank of America in recent weeks to keep its retail banking and mortgage businesses running.

The additional financing alleviated concerns the nation's largest mortgage lender might collapse because of spiking defaults.
 

glutenberg

Golden Member
Sep 2, 2004
1,941
0
0
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Here we go again.

P&Nrs said Countrywide didn't need more credit.

Hmmmm well here is another $12 billion thrown in:

9-13-2007 Countrywide secures additional $12 billion in credit

Stocks advanced sharply Thursday, led by strong gains among the blue chips, after mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. said it had lined up added financing

Investors, who have been nervous about the sinking housing market and squeezed credit markets damaging the economy, were relieved to hear that Countrywide secured $12 billion in credit.

Countrywide rose $2.24, or 13 percent, to $18.86 after the company added to its borrowing capacity.

The move comes after Countrywide borrowed $11.5 billion and sold a $2 billion stake to Bank of America in recent weeks to keep its retail banking and mortgage businesses running.

The additional financing alleviated concerns the nation's largest mortgage lender might collapse because of spiking defaults.

No one said they didn't need more credit. In fact, everyone has pretty much acknowledged that CFC is a credit driven business. What people have been saying is that CFC will not have as serious liquidity issues because of their strong lines of credit. I think you're confusing the issues at hand.
 

smack Down

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2005
4,507
0
0
Originally posted by: WHAMPOM
I am for bail-outs for people, not the greedy Corporations that dug the hole.

Hell, no the individual was right in there digging to. Besides they don't need a bailout they can just walk away and let the bank on that wonderful overpriced house. Any bail out for the homeowner is really a bail out for the lender.
 

upsciLLion

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2001
5,947
1
81
Originally posted by: smack Down
Originally posted by: WHAMPOM
I am for bail-outs for people, not the greedy Corporations that dug the hole.

Hell, no the individual was right in there digging to. Besides they don't need a bailout they can just walk away and let the bank on that wonderful overpriced house. Any bail out for the homeowner is really a bail out for the lender.

Most of the loans were packaged up and sold off, so it's the investors holding the debt that will be screwed instead of the banks. The bail out would be for the hedge fund managers whose hedge funds keep blowing up.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
9-14-2007Countrywide caught in mortgage spiral

LOS ANGELES - Countrywide Financial Corp. grew from a two-man startup in 1969 to become the nation's leading mortgage lender by deftly riding out housing boom-and-bust cycles. This time around, however, the ride has been a lot rougher, leaving the company in a scramble to regain its footing as the housing market has turned from boom to bust.

"In an absolute level sense, this is the biggest challenge" Countrywide has ever faced, said Frederick Cannon, an analyst with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc.

Several analysts believe Countrywide will survive the crisis, based on the strength of its retail banking operation, track record in the industry and operating changes made in recent weeks.

But they said it could see deeper cutbacks and lose ground to competitors while weathering a housing crisis expected to last at least 18 more months.

"At the end of the day, in this environment, Countrywide is not in as strong a position as its biggest competitor, Wells Fargo," Cannon said.
===============================================

Remember I said Wells Fargo is going to announce problems too.

Somehow to this point they have been mum.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
10-11-2007 Countrywide slashes jobs as bad loans rise

The largest U.S. mortgage lender also said it eliminated 4,935 jobs last month, leaving it with 55,932. It has said it plans to cut as many as 12,000 jobs, or 20 percent, by December to cope with a deepening U.S. housing slump.

Separately, North Carolina Treasurer Richard Moore said he asked the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate the timing of stock sales over the last year by Countrywide Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo.

Mozilo received about $387 million from pay and stock option gains from 2002 to 2006, regulatory filings show. His stock sales resumed this week after a two-month hiatus.

"There is a tremendous amount of smoke around the motivations and trading practices of at least the CEO of Countrywide, perhaps the whole senior management," Moore said on CNBC television.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
Countrywide closed at $10.57 today. Is single digit inevitable? This stock is starting to interest me. Might be going long if it falls to single digits.
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
Got out of my puts when it was at 18. Should have held on longer but I bought them when the stock was in the 30s so I made a nice profit. You what they say, Bulls run, bears hide, pigs get slaughtered.

 

Vette73

Lifer
Jul 5, 2000
21,503
9
0
Originally posted by: Naustica
Countrywide closed at $10.57 today. Is single digit inevitable? This stock is starting to interest me. Might be going long if it falls to single digits.

Yea I can see them as a long hold. I don't think they are going anywhere, but you never know. Also seems there is news of insider trading, that will hurt them as well.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
I don't know about Countrywide (other than it's lost over 60% of it's value) but Freddy Mac is losing over 25% of it's value today and has lost well over 50% in the last couple of months. Talk about taking a beating....
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Engineer
I don't know about Countrywide (other than it's lost over 60% of it's value) but Freddy Mac is losing over 25% of it's value today and has lost well over 50% in the last couple of months. Talk about taking a beating....

I think that Freddie and Fannie will end up being completely different beasts in 2 years than they are now. They have over 2tr in mortgage guarantees that are nearly impossible to value. In addition, they have exposure to the subprime market since their charter says that while they cannot purchase whole-loan subprime mortgages, they can buy high-grade subprime tranches, which is where I believe they took the majority of the losses.
 

rchiu

Diamond Member
Jun 8, 2002
3,846
0
0
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Got out of my puts when it was at 18. Should have held on longer but I bought them when the stock was in the 30s so I made a nice profit. You what they say, Bulls run, bears hide, pigs get slaughtered.

Good for you, but what happened to your prediction that Countrywide is going down or BoA is gonna short Countrywide's stock?
 

imported_Lothar

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2006
4,559
1
0
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Naustica
Countrywide closed at $10.57 today. Is single digit inevitable? This stock is starting to interest me. Might be going long if it falls to single digits.

Wonder how they are even surviving?

Countrywide has well enough liquidity to last them into 2009.
I don't expect anything to happen to them.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Lothar
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Naustica
Countrywide closed at $10.57 today. Is single digit inevitable? This stock is starting to interest me. Might be going long if it falls to single digits.

Wonder how they are even surviving?

Countrywide has well enough liquidity to last them into 2009.
I don't expect anything to happen to them.

Yeah, that's why it drew down it's revolver, tapped out it's conduits, *and* had to get 2bn in notes from BAC to shore up it's liquidity, on top of all of that, it started offering higher CD rates to grab as many deposits as it can. Now people are raising the spectre again that it isn't as strong as it says it is.

Face it, CFC is toast. They don't have the capital to last them another 2 years, not when they have already gone to the wells, dried them up, and is now just drinking off of the waterbags.
 

Vette73

Lifer
Jul 5, 2000
21,503
9
0
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Lothar
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Naustica
Countrywide closed at $10.57 today. Is single digit inevitable? This stock is starting to interest me. Might be going long if it falls to single digits.

Wonder how they are even surviving?

Countrywide has well enough liquidity to last them into 2009.
I don't expect anything to happen to them.

Yeah, that's why it drew down it's revolver, tapped out it's conduits, *and* had to get 2bn in notes from BAC to shore up it's liquidity, on top of all of that, it started offering higher CD rates to grab as many deposits as it can. Now people are raising the spectre again that it isn't as strong as it says it is.

Face it, CFC is toast. They don't have the capital to last them another 2 years, not when they have already gone to the wells, dried them up, and is now just drinking off of the waterbags.

I can see them getting bail out like chrysler did in the 80's. CFC has to much tied up that if they go down they will take the economy with them HARD.

The bad thing is you can see from the news that there was some insider tyrading in the company so that never helps the stock price. But I can see it making a come back now that rates have dropped a little and they got some more cash on hand. It woudl be a long hold, but gains could be very good if you can ride it out.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Marlin1975
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Lothar
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Naustica
Countrywide closed at $10.57 today. Is single digit inevitable? This stock is starting to interest me. Might be going long if it falls to single digits.

Wonder how they are even surviving?

Countrywide has well enough liquidity to last them into 2009.
I don't expect anything to happen to them.

Yeah, that's why it drew down it's revolver, tapped out it's conduits, *and* had to get 2bn in notes from BAC to shore up it's liquidity, on top of all of that, it started offering higher CD rates to grab as many deposits as it can. Now people are raising the spectre again that it isn't as strong as it says it is.

Face it, CFC is toast. They don't have the capital to last them another 2 years, not when they have already gone to the wells, dried them up, and is now just drinking off of the waterbags.

I can see them getting bail out like chrysler did in the 80's. CFC has to much tied up that if they go down they will take the economy with them HARD.

The bad thing is you can see from the news that there was some insider tyrading in the company so that never helps the stock price. But I can see it making a come back now that rates have dropped a little and they got some more cash on hand. It woudl be a long hold, but gains could be very good if you can ride it out.

I highly doubt they will get bailed out. It'll be sold off, bit by bit.