2021 Hurricane Season

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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
17,539
16,890
146
Denly said:
30C? Sound very warm. What's the historical average this time of the year?
Click to expand...
30c is a smidge higher than normal temps in that area at this time of year, based on averaging 1984-2005.

Chandeleur Islands Water Temperature (Sea) and Wetsuit Guide (Louisiana, USA)

Chandeleur Islands water temperature - check out the ocean temperature for surfing, kayaking and windsurfing. Wetsuit guide based on current sea temperature observations.
www.surf-forecast.com www.surf-forecast.com
30c is normal more in late JUL early AUG, it should be getting down in the high 20's at this point.

My big concern is this pile of shit just off the coast. Ya'll remember those hurricanes idling on the coast for a day or two, just buzzsawing over a city or two, constantly rebuilding strength on the back half of the storm that's still over the ocean? Yeah...
1630147398884.png
 
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Lost_in_the_HTTP

Lost_in_the_HTTP

Lifer
Nov 17, 2019
13,439
7,905
136
Ike killed my power for most of ten days. I had a 7250W portable generator and ran it a couple of hours at a time with a few hours off in between. I was still working then, so I could be someplace with access to the world. I went through close to 40 gallons of gasoline as I recall.

Ida is forecast to come nearby, but not as close as Ike did (unless they change it).

LP tank is at 50%, or about 250 gallons. That should get me somewhere around 100 hours, or 4 days. LP might be hard to get if there is high demand.

I have about 5 gallons of gasoline on hand if I need to resort to the portables again. Debating about heading out to get another 10-20 gallons which could be used for mowers and yard tools if it isn't needed.
 
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Jaskalas

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
36,407
10,716
136
We'll have to see how accurate this experimental model is.
For comparison, Katrina achieved 25-28 feet.

Beyond the obvious storm surge impacts, there is always the question if New Orleans levees will hold. Or if the city will flood.

 
woolfe9998

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,242
14,245
136
Evidently the gov says that this "will be one of the strongest hurricanes that hit anywhere in Louisiana since at least the 1850s." If so, then worse than Katrina? Damn.

I'm going to assume they have taken flood mitigation measures since Katrina. They better have.
 
Lost_in_the_HTTP

Lost_in_the_HTTP

Lifer
Nov 17, 2019
13,439
7,905
136
Gang, really, need to get off the KoKaine shit. K ranked 7th while Wilma and Rita ranked 1st and 3rd in terms of pressure.

The effects of K were because of the size and the angle of attack that pushed the storm surge up the mouth causing it to top the levies and flood the city. Water, not so much the wind.
 
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R

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
4,882
7,319
136
It’s a cat 2 at the moment, but I don’t think it has a chance matching the maximum size and intensity of Katrina. Still seems like it could be a very strong cat 4 though.
 
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Dave_5k

Platinum Member
May 23, 2017
2,007
3,820
136
Rainfall flash flooding may be as much or more problematic than the modest storm surge, with up to 15” rain forecast at New Orleans
 
MrSquished

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
26,509
24,723
136
Anytime a hurricane hits a southern Gulf state Biden should declare it a weather anarchist zone and deny them any federal funding.
 
T

TheVrolok

Lifer
Dec 11, 2000
24,254
4,092
136
Paratus said:
To much.

We ordered the generator through Lowe’s. Full installation costs ~ $10-12k.

Excruciating detail below
  • A 22-24kw generator is $5-$6k (basically a 1000cc motorcycle engine)
  • Transfer switch ~$1k (automatically switches loads from main to generator power)
  • Softstarts for AC units a few hundred (keeps the both ACs from starting at the same time and bogging the generator down
The rest is for:
  • Concrete slab to mount the generator
  • Electricians to wire everything in
  • Plumber to run the gas lines
  • Gas company to upsize the regulator and do the final tie in
  • Electric company to come out and shut off the power to the house during install
  • Various city & insurance inspections

The generator runs for 5 minutes every week and can notify you for maintenance. We are paying a few hundred a year for the installation company to come out and do preventative maintenance.

Took almost 6 months from the time we called for a quote. It’s now running 9 months.

The last fun thing we learned was we needed an insurance inspection. Living just inside a coastal county means outside of some very expensive private options we are limited to the state backed windstorm insurance. Our policy was up about the time the generator was installed and we made the mistake of asking the insurance company if it would be covered as part of the structure or personal property.

The agent said, “Oh you have a slab mounted generator? I don’t see an inspection certificate. We can’t renew your insurance.” (If coverage lapses they won’t cover us for the first 30 days we re-up which just happened to be the start of hurricane season.)

Neither Lowe’s nor the installation company were aware of this. We ended up finding an engineering company that would do the inspection and write the certificate saying it was installed correctly and wouldn’t become a projectile during a storm.

My wife ended up arguing with the installation company about needing the inspection and the manager said he lived in a costal county with a generator and didn’t have it inspected. My wife said go talk to your insurance agent but don’t be surprised if they drop you.

The next day he said, “I talked to my agent. I uh have to get my generator inspected or they are going to drop me. I’m going to have to start doing this for all our customers but Lowe’s isn’t going to cover it.”

The engineering company we hired said they’ve only done a few of these inspections. The installation company had a backlog of 700 generators to install, most in coastal counties. No one is getting these inspected. Which means if you file a claim after a storm the entire claim can be denied if they find out you have one of these and didn’t get it inspected.

Sorry for the long story.
Click to expand...
Fantastic post. Appreciate it!
 
B

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,770
126
Paratus said:
If it has a 220/240V out you can look into getting an external RV hookup to your breaker box. Then you can back feed portions of your house from your portable generator. The benefit there is if you have natural gas you can power your furnace and you don’t have to run extension cords everywhere.

Professional installation is recommended because they’ll install an interlock to prevent your portable generator from powering upstream of your house. Folks who jury rig it themselves run the risk of frying some poor lineman who’s trying to repair the system if they forget to open their main breaker.

Other than that besides fuel I recommend having at least enough oil on hand to do 1-2 oil changes since portables normally require them after ~24hours of continuous operations.

It also doesn’t hurt to have a spare carburetor air filter and spark plug. I ended up using all of those after the carburetor gummed and flooded the cylinder of my portable during the winter storm this year.

Also get some beefy extension cables. Guess which one of these was the lower gauge cord:
View attachment 49436
Click to expand...
Good advice, I keep 5 Qts of 30W, (which is what mine recommends) on hand. In 2004 here in FL, (4 hurricanes), generators were close to impossible to find, many of those who did ruined them. News had a guy from a local small engine repair shop with dozens of dead genny's out back, owners put in the bottle that came with the unit but never bothered to read the manual, they recommend to shut it down and change oil every 48hrs, some had ran for a week or more on the same oil, none were covered under warranty. Since these use lawnmower type engines for the most part folks thought it would be fine, but a genny has to work WAY harder than a mower ever does and must maintain 3,600 RPM at all times, (vast majority do), to keep the frequency at 60Hz.
 
kage69

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
31,724
48,541
136
Yeah this is going to be really bad. People in Louisiana need to GTFO, but then that's my advice to them without a deadly storm too. Whole place is going to be offline for weeks, and that's with a working FEMA and president who isn't an apathetic sociopath with a penchant for homicidal negligence.

Covid, hurricanes, magats have it hard down there. Smarten up any day now folks. You have options, and aren't you getting tired of being in danger?

 
Jaskalas

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
36,407
10,716
136
Would be a tough sell to upgrade this to a Cat5 without an official 160 MPH reading.
May be possible in the post-season analyses.
Regardless, a high end Cat4 is nothing to scoff at. Very dangerous storm.

Time to test the levees.
 
Lost_in_the_HTTP

Lost_in_the_HTTP

Lifer
Nov 17, 2019
13,439
7,905
136
9AM Update still says 150, C4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
900 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF IDA APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...

An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana,
recently reported a sustained wind of 102 mph (165 km/h) and a wind
gust of 116 mph (187 km/h). Another elevated NOAA C-MAN station at
Pilot's Station East near Southwest Pass recently reported a
sustained wind of 97 mph (156 km/h) and a gust to 121 mph (194
km/h).

A NOAA National Ocean Service observing site at Pilottown,
Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h)
and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 89.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown



Since it's already interacting with land, it should begin to weaken soon.
 
A

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,115
136
Lost_in_the_HTTP said:
Since it's already interacting with land, it should begin to weaken soon.
Click to expand...

NBC news just said Ida will strengthen to 155mph by the time the eye wall makes landfall. On the plus side, it’s a smaller hurricane, size wise, and is moving at a good clip and doesn’t appear that it will stall.
 
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