Where will Irma make landfall? Please post your predictions

[Puffnstuff]

Power is out in Boynton Beach and Boca Raton. So far so good though.

Power is holding fast here in west Jacksonville as fresh chocolate chip cookies are coming out of the oven. nom nom nom I'm hopeful for enough rainfall to drown my adult mole that refuses to trigger my traps.

 

[zinfamous]

Those construction cranes downtown are starting to topple.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/09/us/hurricane-irma-florida-latest/index.html
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...cranes-pose-potential-danger-during-hurricane

That's on purpose. They were told to unlock the cranes so they can spin freely, because it makes them harder for wind to topple.

Actually that's just Boomer up in the driver's seat with a handle of Wild Turkey.

 

[Puffnstuff]

Actually that's just Boomer up in the driver's seat with a handle of Wild Turkey.

Looks like they lost two of them today. Here in Jax the wind is really picking up so I expect for things to be kind of rough tonight into tomorrow.

 

[Jhhnn]

The satellite imagery indicates that Irma may be edging inland which will decrease her power. It's a good thing if she does.

 

[Puffnstuff]

The satellite imagery indicates that Irma may be edging inland which will decrease her power. It's a good thing if she does.

That really saved the people down south from the storm surge.

On another rote Irma has started violently sodomizing the trees in my front yard.

 

[conehead433]

It certainly looks like the Weather Channel exaggerates wind speeds of these storm along with storm surge, etc. Claims of 130 mph sustained winds more likely mean occasional gusts of 130. Don't get me wrong, these storms certainly inflict a great deal of damage from wind, rain, surge, and spawned tornados. Personally I'd like to see a little more truthfulness in storm coverage. My area had been forecast to receive hurricane strength winds and it's more likely I'll get 60 mph gusts at best. I'll probably still be without power for some time, but knowing what is actually coming makes a huge difference in whether I stay or leave.

 

[JSt0rm]

if they downplayed it and it hit at 185mph across all of florida and 2,000,000 people died there would be a shitshow.

 

[Puffnstuff]

This storm is actually the strongest on the NE corridor meaning that the strongest winds are extending onto the east coast. If you take a look at the radar you can see the spiral bands moving up the Atlantic coast.

 

[shortylickens]

This storm is actually the strongest on the NE corridor meaning that the strongest winds are extending onto the east coast. If you take a look at the radar you can see the spiral bands moving up the Atlantic coast.

Virginia has been quite calm and mellow so far.

 

[JSt0rm]

Virginia has been quite calm and mellow so far.

Therefore...

 

[Jhhnn]

That really saved the people down south from the storm surge.

On another rote Irma has started violently sodomizing the trees in my front yard.

Looks like she's headed for your neighborhood, coming cross country (right up your old penninsula!) to get there. She should lose a lot of her power doing so. Dunno what will happen if she goes back out to sea off the coast of Georgia & S Carolina.

 

[theeedude]

This storm got oversold. Equifax hack is a bigger disaster.

 

[Puffnstuff]

Well boiz I lost power right after midnight so I was literally in the dark until about 15 minutes ago. I could still see the glow from the lights in the downtown area and over towards Cecil Field. Looking at the radar the worst has already passed us by so things should improve as we move into this afternoon. The in cloud lightning display was as expected especially neat when viewed in the dark.
https://www.news4jax.com/live/news4jax-backup-newscast-stream

 

[Oyeve]

Been trying to reach my mother and quadriplegic niece in Orlando all morning. Apparently the power is out and I assume the cell towers as well.

 

[HomerJS]

Prediction:

Since the storm wasn't as bad as predicted, righties will claim liberal conspiracy. Science is bullshit

 

[Puffnstuff]

Prediction:

Since the storm wasn't as bad as predicted, righties will claim liberal conspiracy. Science is bullshit

The St. Johns rivers is at record levels and downtown is flooded which is expected to continue as we receive strong offshore winds. If Irma wouldn't have come onshore when she did the flooding would be even worse along the gulf coast.

 

[Meghan54]

Possibly you don't understand how the sustained winds are determined or refer to. They are the winds at altitude, not at ground level. Naturally, winds at ground level are much lower than at the altitudes the "official" wind speed measurements are taken....by a plane flying into and out of the hurricane proper. That's why it seems "overestimated"...it's not.

It certainly looks like the Weather Channel exaggerates wind speeds of these storm along with storm surge, etc. Claims of 130 mph sustained winds more likely mean occasional gusts of 130. Don't get me wrong, these storms certainly inflict a great deal of damage from wind, rain, surge, and spawned tornados. Personally I'd like to see a little more truthfulness in storm coverage. My area had been forecast to receive hurricane strength winds and it's more likely I'll get 60 mph gusts at best. I'll probably still be without power for some time, but knowing what is actually coming makes a huge difference in whether I stay or leave.

 

[FerrelGeek]

True. But the media doesn't always convey this information well. In other words, they do 'hype' events like this by not telling the whole story. My wife and I spent a good bit of the last couple days watching the news on this as we have family and friends in FL and we did hear comments to the effect of '130 mph sustained winds will devastate everything'; then when the storm hits and non 130 mph sustained winds don't show up, wtf do you expect people who aren't studied up on stuff like this to think???

Not ragging on you, btw.

Possibly you don't understand how the sustained winds are determined or refer to. They are the winds at altitude, not at ground level. Naturally, winds at ground level are much lower than at the altitudes the "official" wind speed measurements are taken....by a plane flying into and out of the hurricane proper. That's why it seems "overestimated"...it's not.

 

[Jaskalas]

The storm never recovered from brushing Cuba. If it had landed as a Cat5 Florida would have experienced the equivalent of both a tornado and tsunami together. People within a few miles of the shore would have been annihilated. If it had jogged into Miami at peak strength that city would have been wiped off the map.

Computer models predicted such a serious outcome up to a week ahead of time before drifting west, then drifting east... then back west... eventually Irma took the Cuban approach and smacked the west side of Florida as a shell of its former self. Florida dodged a bullet this time. Suppose Miami residents will be pissed that they still have homes to go back to, they'll never appreciate how lucky they are this day.

 

[TheVrolok]

Prediction:

Since the storm wasn't as bad as predicted, righties will claim liberal conspiracy. Science is bullshit

This is not directed at you, more overall thoughts.

Was it not as bad as predicted? We still have to wait and see exactly what the damages were. Sounds like the keys are in pretty bad shape. I feel like this is similar to the election "trump won so polls and predictions are bullshit!" obviously the track is a moving target and these are estimations, but realistically it seems to gone down just about like they said it would. We just got on the luckier side of the bell curve. To take anything but worst case scenario as" Meh, overhyped" is fairly silly and displays a lack of understanding of probability and modeling.

 

[Puffnstuff]

Prediction models serve as a guide to possible outcomes and are not 100% accurate. Even if the worst case scenario doesn't come to fruition people's lives will have been saved by presenting this information. Anybody who lives on the coast and has experienced a hurricane knows that the storm surge is enemy number one. In a strong hurricane ordinary objects become missiles and will impale structures and people as has been demonstrated through numerous storms.

I will never forget Camille and how she beat down interstate 10 along the gulf coast transforming a smooth highway into a wavy mess that stood for decades afterwards until it was repaired not so long ago. Hurricanes are natures heat engine disposing of the excess through a violent display of wind and rain. Ivan was the worst storm I've ever experienced and was the first time that I know of that storm surge disassembled multiple bridges over the same waterway miles apart from one another.

There were multiple times during the course of this storm that I heard the focused wind blowing and fully expected for a quick spin tornado to appear. Those were the very same sounds I heard during Ivan that produced destructive tornadoes around my home in Pensacola.

 

[Puffnstuff]

Duval county has historic flooding in progress right now making this storm the worst natural disaster in the city's history.
https://www.news4jax.com/weather/hurricane-irma/hurricane-irma-wreaks-havoc-across-ne-florida
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurric...orida-record-setting-flooding-atlantic-beach/

 

[shortylickens]

Dude on Imgur just posted this:

Hurricane Irma has effected all of us in this great state to include my county. Although we did not experience a direct hit (almost), we did get a decent smack in the rear from her. Our county experienced an extremely high call volume. 1600+ calls from Sunday to Tuesday. There were a lot of "prowler" calls, like people walking around with flashlights. I don't have a problem with people being cautious, but the whole area is without power... It kind of makes sense that people would be using flashlights to see around their property. There were the obvious calls of downed power lines and fallen trees. But there were a couple calls that stood out for me.
The first was a vehicle crash vs a downed tree. The road was a back country road that already did not have much lighting. Now it was even darker. There is a reason people are encouraged to stay in their homes after a hurricane and it is so we can find these road obstructions and try and get them out of the way before people get hurt. The tree was bowed up just enough for a smaller vehicle to go through. But not an F550. The driver was incredibly lucky. The only part of the truck that was not sheared was the drivers seat portion of the cab. Had there been a passenger, the passenger would be dead. I'm fairly certain that when people are stuck inside for two days, they go stir crazy. I was dispatched to a suspicious person call around 1 a.m. The man was running in front of cars in his boxers, and asking the people in the cars to buy drugs. He was clearly tripping. He was rambling about anything and everything drug related and even admitted to being high on meth. My partner and I were pretty sure we were going to have to go to the ground with this guy as he even told us how amped up he was. Luckily we were able to control him before he could react. Florida has what is called a marchman act, which allows us to seize an intoxicated person and transport them to the hospital for detox. This was the outcome for this event. Luckily it ended without a struggle.
There were some sad stories from the weekend as well. Another district in my county experienced three separate shootings. Not Law enforcement involved. I don't have details to share as they were not my district. This weekend was exhausting and stressful for all of us. These are just a few brief examples of things we experienced after the storm. There were so many more calls, most of them mundane, but so many more, nonetheless. As always, I don't have problems doing these stories to give y'all some insight into our world. Any appropriate questions, I am happy to answer them.

 

[imported_tajmahal]

Don't forget Hurricane Jose, now tropical storm Jose. It may become a category 1 again this weekend.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/14/hurricane-joses-path-what-should-know.html