Question When will AM4 be cheapest?

[Leeea]

It seems as AM4 is replaced with AM5, AM4 cpus will hit a low point, and then the price will begin to climb again.

When will that low point be?



Will rumors of additional am4 CPUs effect this?:
https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-allegedly-preparing-new-zen3d-and-low-end-am4-processors



Is AMD going to continue production of AM4 even after AM5 is on the market?
AMD will have N6 and N7 production at TSMC in Q1 2023. With N6 being used for Ryzen 6000 series, is it safe to speculate N7 is still producing AM4 parts?

 

[Leeea]

Careful, my Assrock B450 barely supports HDMI 2. Only 4:2:0 colors.

-blinks-
I had no idea.

Thank you for the tip that I should watch out for that!

 

[DrMrLordX]

AM4 motherboards probably won't get much cheaper. Maybe x570 will, but everything else is probably sitting close to the bottom price we'll see in retail. Eventually you will be tapping the used market, probably by mid 2023. Just guessing, and we may see retail availability of AM4 persist for awhile . . . just don't be surprised if it's the boards that dry up first.

DDR4 availability should remain fairly high unless Hynix, Samsung, and Micron cease DDR4 IC production. Raptor Lake supports DDR4, after all. Prices will probably stay fixed.

AM4 CPU prices will decline after AM5 launches and again after Raptor Lake launches, at which point the prices will stagnate and then slowly rise on older high-end (Vermeer) CPUs.

 

[Insert_Nickname]

Thank you for the tip that I should watch out for that!

AM4 HDMI support is down to the APU used, not the chipset. My 5700G + B450 can do 12bit 4:4:4 "deep colour" no problem.

 

[scineram]

AM4 HDMI support is down to the APU used, not the chipset. My 5700G + B450 can do 12bit 4:4:4 "deep colour" no problem.

Baseless. Your B450!

 

[maddie]

We now have R5 5600G for $132 on Amazon.

What I don't understand unless they are in high demand for mobile builds, is the $ 239 R7 5700G. Double the price almost.

 

[fkoehler]

Okay full speculation/rumor/ugh:

Dude, can you ever stay in the consensus-reality and post a reply that is on-topic and less than 200 lines of stream of babble?

Oh yeah, AT does have the Ignore feature, thx AT!

 

[NostaSeronx]

Dude, can you ever stay in the consensus-reality and post a reply that is on-topic and less than 200 lines of stream of babble?

Simplified w/o speculation logic:

AMD's cheapest yet newest AM4 processors will still be produced at GlobalFoundries.

Expanded w/ speculation/rumors/guh:
2018 to 1H2020: AMD/GF collaboration listed:
22FDX and 12LP+
22FDX => Replaces Stoney (RTO or NTO)
12LP+ => Replaces Raven2/Dali (RTO only (removal of doped fins))

2H2020-present: AMD/GF collaboration listed:
22FDX and 12FDX
22FDX => NTO replacing low-cost Chromebook (Under Mendocino+, possibly on AM4, but most likely to be CPU onboard/BGA)
12FDX => NTO replacing low-cost&low-tdp((low-tdp Renoir-X w/ small iGPU alternative)) 8c and less variants (Under Raphael+, likely to be on AM4, plus possibly being CPU onboard/BGA as well)

Given GF employee in-progress accomplishments:
22FDX product => Fab 1 (home) -> other GF fabs (second) // Capacity-limit will not be fixed till 2024 wafer starts begin.
12FDX product => Fab 8 (home) -> other GF fabs (second) // GF expanded work on 12FDX this year, so it is likely to launch sooner than later.

FDX-line:
Lower cost of manufacturing(about $4000+ per wafer to less than ~$3000 per wafer) + shorter lead times(~6 -> ~3 months till wafer get) + higher performance(Frequency at given mm2) + lower power(Power at given mm2), etc.
~$4000(14nm) -> ~$3000(12FDX) :: trailing edge price
vs
~$4000(14nm) -> ~$6000(6nm) -> ~$8000(4nm) :: trailing edge price
Of which AMD is likely to use the 10nm FEOL with 12nm BEOL high-perf variant: 64CPP+56Mx with high mobility straining.


Current news: Fab 8 has already begun sunsetting FinFETs for personal computing. PC on FinFET(complete reduction) is becoming RF on FinFET(2x capacity across the board).

PC on FinFET => PC on FDX (22FDX currently has more personal computing products in production)
AI on FinFET => AI on FDX (Same as above, AI on FinFET died)
RF on FinFET && RF on FDX are non-competitive (12RF(RF FinFET) and 22RF(RF FDX) are different markets:: Wi-Fi 6/6E/7 = RF FinFET and mmWave = RF FDX)

Timeline:
- CEA-Leti CEO => 12FDX && 10nm FDSOI;; May 2020
- GF CEO => 12FDX && 10nm FDSOI;; July 2021
- GF Employee => No 12LP improvement insert (Logic to RF focus) && 12FDX Product bring up, yield bring up, ramp up (FinFET to FDX focus);; February 2022
- US Incentive: ~$4B shared between 12RF and 12FDX
EU Incentive: ~$5B shared between 22FDX and 12FDX ;; 2022

 

[Leeea]

thread necro!:
We have lots of nice Ryzen 7000 headlines at the moment.

Question about a specific skew, a 5800x3d:

So I am looking at:

https://pcpartpicker.com/product/CZ3gXL/amd-ryzen-7-5800x3d-34-ghz-8-core-processor-100-100000651wof

I see it was $400 back in August. It is $419 now. The question becomes, does it go up or down from here?

 

[In2Photos]

thread necro!:
We have lots of nice Ryzen 7000 headlines at the moment.

Question about a specific skew, a 5800x3d:

So I am looking at:

https://pcpartpicker.com/product/CZ3gXL/amd-ryzen-7-5800x3d-34-ghz-8-core-processor-100-100000651wof

I see it was $400 back in August. It is $419 now. The question becomes, does it go up or down from here?

It was $385 at the Zen4 announcement. Interesting to see it go back up. I wonder if that had anything to do with Zen 4 motherboard pricing chasing people back to Zen 3.

 

[VirtualLarry]

It was $385 at the Zen4 announcement. Interesting to see it go back up. I wonder if that had anything to do with Zen 4 motherboard pricing chasing people back to Zen 3.

Or Nvidia 4000-series demand, causing demand for "associated merchandise" (There's a specific economic term, for demand for one item causing an increased demand for an associated item), thus driving the prices of gaming-focused AM4 parts (CPUs, boards) upwards.

 

[Harry_Wild]

Day after Thanksgiving; Black Friday and CyberMonday!

 

[DrMrLordX]

I see it was $400 back in August. It is $419 now. The question becomes, does it go up or down from here?

Depends on whether AMD decides to continue supplying the market.

 

[NostaSeronx]

AMD has removed Mendocino (client) and (chromebook) from being Entry-Level. This type of removal in general means another product is in the pipe.



Zen1 is available in the 2023-2025 product portfolios. Which with a high confidence would be a variant with an energy-efficency focus.


However, it should be looked at as if it is Zen(14LPP) -> Zen+(12LP) -> Zen1[e](12FDX). The 12FDX NPI/yield/integration team at GloFo has been contracted by AMD. So, it is likely the new node selected is 12FDX. Current WSA has a fixed cost for 14nm/12nm. If 12FDX is the thing, 2H'23~end of 3H'23(WSA-timeframe) should see a revision/refresh of the WSA for 2024~2028 timeframe. With 12FDX getting a decreasing cost ceiling through that time period. Leading to 2024 product price being based on 2025 wafer costs, and 2025 product price being based on 2026 wafer costs.

"Zen" vs "Zen1"

	Zen	Zen1
Standard Libs:	10.5T/9T	6T < xT < 7.5T
Macro Count:	20 Macros	sub-10 Macros
Spectre Fixes?	No(already taped out)	Yes
New FPU?	No	Yes (Gracemont ISA compatibility)
L3 in CCX? or Fabric?	CCX	In-Fabric as SLC
Performance or Energy-Efficient	Performance Core	Energy-Efficient Core

Zen1 should have back-ports from Zen4/Zen5. The FPU will likely be from Zen4. Rather than Zen2 Mendocino's (256-bit MUL+256-bit ADD, removing the later two FP pipes from Renoir/other Zen2s). With Zen1's FPU doing this, which allows Zen1 to get VEX-encoded AVX512 instructions like Gracemont/Crestmont/Etcmont:

(note VNNI/IFMA)

L2 should fallback on Jaguar/Mongoose-esque shared L2.

I can say with high confidence that while it might be on AM4, it will not be backwards compatible. It should be on a socket similar to AM4e, which is the 64-bit DIMM/SO-DIMM concept for Stoney-AM4/Concept Raven2(when it had 64-bit memory)-AM4. It should be on leading/bleeding edge memory solution, thus be a 64-bit dual-channel (x32/x32) CAMM solution. Where, it can later fit into FT6b/FT7 for Notebook/Chromebook CAMM as well.

Example AM4(current) -> AM4e(same socket, breaks compatibility);

JEDEC and vendors like ADATA? is focusing on 64-bit CAMMs.



AM1 was suppose to be succeeded by essential-variant of AM4.

Only sure about these:
Zen1 E-core SoC's "WHL, Crest" => Essential-base for AM4e SoC
Mendocino's successor SoCs,
Zen4 E-core SoC "PHX3, Valley" => Mainstream AM4e SoC (Upsell Option)
Zen5or4 E-core SoC "STX3, Valley" => Mainstream AM4e SoC (Upsell Option)

These will be the cheapest AM4 options in the extra extended AM4 lifespan. From what I can find Crest = CPU-orientated (More CPU cores, Less GPU cores) and Valley = APU-orientated (More GPU cores, Less CPU cores). Crest is similar to Summit/Pinnacle => the top of a wave and Valley(another name of trough) => bottom part of a wave. This naming scheme is exclusive to these cost-optimized solutions.

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
	AM4 - 128b DDR4	AM5 - 128b DDR5	AM5 - 128b DDR5	AM5 - 128b DDR5	AM5 - 128b DDR5
Premium/Mainstream	Zen3	Zen4	Zen5	Zen5+	Zen6	Zen6+
Naming Style	Vermeer/Cezanne	Raphael(CPU)/Point(APU)	Ridge(CPU)/Point(APU)	Ridge(CPU)/Point(APU)	Ridge(CPU)/Point(APU)	Ridge(CPU)/Point(APU)
	No Low-cost Socket	No Low-cost Socket	AM4e - 64b DDR5	AM4e - 64b DDR5	AM4e - 64b DDR5	AM4e - 64b DDR5
Low-cost Mainstream			<110 mm2 dies	Zen4 E-core	Zen5 E-core	Zen6 E-core
Low-cost Entry		~150 mm2 dies	Zen1/One	Zen1/One Refresh	Zen1/One Refresh	Zen1/One Refresh
Naming Style			Crest(CPU)/Valley(APU)	Crest(CPU)/Valley(APU)	Crest(CPU)/Valley(APU)	Crest(CPU)/Valley(APU)

AM4e is like FS1b (FS1b = 64-bit DDR3, while FS1/FS1r2 = 128-bit DDR3).

 

[A///]

Depends on whether AMD decides to continue supplying the market.

necroing this only because nostra posted his...... whatever he's rumbling about. am4 will likely stay around for a couple more years. the cost to produce it will go down and it'll be a budget orientated platform. I can only see am5 becoming more mainstream is if the boar dprices dropped and we won't see that until a new chipset revision comes offering newer features, as it stands now wifi 7 and 5gbe, and then we'll see pcie6 with x770 perhaps. existing x670 and x670e will get cheaper how much is anyone's guess. ddr5 prices still need to come down by another 30-40% to put them in line with ddr4 pricing, but again the higher board costs associated with the platform aren't helping it. it'll be easier with zen 5 launch as ram will be cheap by then, and arrowlake will be on ddr5 only, but the high board costs from both platforms won't help unless those come down.

 

[moinmoin]

am4 will likely stay around for a couple more years.

Commercially available in some form until 2028 at least.

News - Five more years of official AM4 support

It seems this news flew under the radar at many places since the focus is on embedded. On April 20th AMD announced Ryzen Embedded 5000 series: https://www.amd.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2023-4-20-amd-bolsters-embedded-portfolio-with-new-ryzen-emb.html Like all embedded products it has an...

forums.anandtech.com

 

[A///]

Commercially available in some form until 2028 at least.

News - Five more years of official AM4 support

It seems this news flew under the radar at many places since the focus is on embedded. On April 20th AMD announced Ryzen Embedded 5000 series: https://www.amd.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2023-4-20-amd-bolsters-embedded-portfolio-with-new-ryzen-emb.html Like all embedded products it has an...

forums.anandtech.com

Yes I remember this but I think he was talking about socketed form. You can still get new FX but those are certainly leftover scraps.

 

[NostaSeronx]

whatever he's rumbling about.

There is more information out there than just "maintained project from Socket AM1 aka. FS1b to AM4"

This AM1 to AM4 movement that was suppose to happened didn't(64b DDR4,Stoney-AM4, E300/64b DDR4,Raven2-AM4, E300). However, it wasn't completely killed instead revised against Mendocino's successors. The leak of AM4 being used for its successors was done sometime before its launch: https://www.anandtech.com/show/1758...n-and-athlon-7020-series-with-rdna-2-graphics

2016 -> 2020 (AM1->AM4 => didn't occur)
project started up again
2022 -> future (AM4 w/ new 64-bit PHY SoCs => will occur)

Zen3 backport isn't happening. Instead, AMD opted for more backportin' from Zen4/Zen5. Hence, why the core is awkwardly called Zen1. Since, it is technically a restart from "Zen" to a more modern "Zen1".

"Zen" -> "Zen+" -> "Zen1"/Zen3-based w/ optimizations from Zen4/Zen5.

There will definitely be monolithic SoCs supporting value-class CCX configs on AM4 2024~2028. However, this upcoming AM4 platform is not 128-bit DDR4.

Configs that should exist:

AM4e (Zen4e) C-style [Monolithic], 35W => 8-core, 1 WGP(3+ GHz), 2025 guaranteed availability
AM4e (Zen4e) V-style [Monolithic], 35W => 4-core, 2 WGP(3+ GHz), 2025 guaranteed availability

Commercially available in some form until 2028 at least.

Client is only for two years of support.
Client Pro is only for three years of support.
Embedded is specific to only Industrial&Embedded AM4 boards.

EOL of this: https://www.amd.com/en/product/11826 => is 4/4/2024
EOL of this: https://www.amd.com/en/product/11231 => is 6/1/2024
EOL is the time when the warranty ends and AMD will not replace your stuff if it fails. Supply for processors, is two years regardless unless it is of the embedded variant. I believe Server variants like the ones that end the OPN with A, have extended supply lifespans like Embedded:

AMD 100-000000063A Ryzen 7 5000 5800X Octa-core (8 Core) 3.80 GHz Processor – Dihuni – GPU Server for AI, Data Center & IoT Hardware & Software Solutions

www.dihuni.com

AMD 100-000000063A Ryzen Eight-Core 5800x 16 105w Am4.

AMD 100-000000063A 100000000063a Ryzen Eight-Core 5800x 16 105w Am4 shipped for $489.35. Free shipping! Secure purchasing, 30 day return policy.

www.shopblt.com

Server/Embedded warranty is expected to be fulfilled by the first-buyer(which is only the OEM).
If I give you an Asrock rack server or a industrial/embedded device. I am expected to cover your warranty, not AMD.

 

[moinmoin]

Yes I remember this but I think he was talking about socketed form.

What are you talking about? AM4 is a socket platform. Non-socket platforms have different names.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

We evidently passed the low point on the boards. 5800X3D is $290 on Amazon today. I expect it will drop lower yet.