*update* SOUTH DAKOTA...R's may lose chance at Senate control because of....KANSAS

[First]

(Semi-old story, but new polls)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s_senate_roberts_vs_taylor_vs_orman-5206.html

Kansas is as deep red as they get, but apparently they've always had a sizable independent streak, taking pride in it sort of the way New Hampshire does, though of course in a more conservative direction (whereas NH is much more blue historically). Since the Dem candidate dropped out 2 weeks ago, Repub Pat Roberts has trailed in two major institutional polls based on Likely Voter models, by 1 point and 7 points, respectively, to Independent candidate Greg Orman. Those following Kansas' governor's race won't be surprised by this as Brownback has inexplicably been consistently trailing the Dem in 8 of the 11 public polls conducted there this year.

Right now with no toss-ups Repubs are slated to take the absolute minimum necessary to take the Senate, 51-49. But if Kansas flips, that's all over. Note that Repubs still need to beat all 3 Dem incumbents in the red states (Pryor, Landrieu, Begich) to do this, and they've actually only ever beat two Dem incumbents in the history of the Senate, so 3 in one election would be very impressive.

Predictions?

***Update 10-8-14:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/democrats-jump-into-south-dakota-race-111707.html?hp=f3

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee plans to drop $1 million into South Dakota in a last-minute effort to put a four-way race in play and scramble Republicans’ calculus to win back the Senate.

The committee hopes to be on TV by Monday with attack ads against GOP front-runner Mike Rounds that are likely to focus on his role in an immigration visa scandal.

That could boost either Democrat Rick Weiland or former GOP Sen. Larry Pressler, who is running as an independent and told POLITICO on Wednesday that he hasn’t decided which party he would caucus with if elected.

The Democratic investment, combined with the uncertainty over Pressler’s allegiances, could force the national GOP to spend in a red state essential to their hopes of winning the majority and that they thought had been put away months ago. Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson is retiring.

The DSCC’s plans, first reported by Bloomberg News, were confirmed by POLITICO.
Rounds, a former governor, is stuck far below 50 percent in the polls. He’s a weak fundraiser — coming up far short of initial plans to raise $9 million for the race — and he’s refused to run negative ads.

Weiland, a former Tom Daschle staffer, has complained about the lack of national help from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and the DSCC. The fourth candidate in the race is Gordon Howie, an independent running to Rounds’ right.

The DSCC has polled South Dakota four times, according to Bloomberg, and found the race close enough last week to decide they should go in. A robopoll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, conducted for Weiland’s campaign, last week showed Rounds at 35 percent to 28 percent for Weiland, 24 percent for Pressler and 8 percent for Howie.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee noted that Bloomberg’s report says Democrats think Pressler or Weiland would both caucus with Democrats if elected.

“Harry Reid is a desperate man who will throw anyone under the bus, including South Dakota’s Tom Daschle,” said the NRSC’s Brad Dayspring. “Mike Rounds is well-positioned to win the race, no matter what stunts and secret deals Democrats in Washington try to pull to elect either liberal in South Dakota. South Dakotans know any deal with Harry Reid is a deal with the Devil.”

In an interview Wednesday, Pressler said that if he were to win, he would “wait until I get there” to decide which party to caucus with. He said he would try to retain his seniority from his old Senate experience but also seek to get named to the Indian Affairs Committee, as well as an Appropriations subcommittee dealing with Native American issues.

Moreover, he said he’d choose the party that will give preference to his issues: cutting spending on certain overseas military expenditures and balancing the budget through spending cuts and tax increases. He said he would serve only one six-year term, ensuring he wouldn’t have to spend any time fundraising as a senator.

Pressler said he had not spoken with the DSCC or Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, but he has spoken on several occasions with Maine Sen. Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats.

The DSCC’s investment is the latest development this week in what had been an otherwise sleepy Senate race.

The May Day super PAC, focused on campaign finance reform, announced Tuesday that it is part of a coalition with liberal interest groups that will spend at least $2 million to defeat Rounds. An ad currently on the air praises Weiland.

A group in that coalition, Every Voice Action, told the Argus Leader of Sioux Falls that it will shift from ads attacking Rounds to targeting Pressler — all in an effort to boost Weiland.

National Democrats have a cash advantage, and a million dollars will go much further in a cheap state like South Dakota than a large state like North Carolina — or a state like Alaska, where the airwaves have been saturated for some time.

Another poll just out from respected SurveyUSA today shows Rounds, the Repub, up just 3 points, confirming internal Dem polling from PPP in the Politico article. This could be just like the Dem's Heidi Heitkamp's surprise Senate victory in North Dakota last year, and South Dakota apparently has a habit of evenly splitting their congressional/senate candidates between parties despite being a very conservative state (why I have no idea).

 

[K1052]

Taylor is in court trying to get his name off the ballot since he withdrew knowing he had no chance and hopes to now cockblock the GOP's possible Senate majority with an Independent. The Kansas Secretary of State (who endorsed Roberts) is having a pretty hard time explaining to the Kansas Supreme Court why he won't allow Taylor's name to come off by citing a technicality when they have done it before when requested.

 

[senseamp]

The Secretary of State is an idiot who is creating free publicity for the independent by perpetuating this ballot controversy.

 

[First]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html

RCP's no-tossups Senate map now shows Orman taking Kansas with the green Independent tag, meaning it's a 50-49 Repub-Dem split. I still think one of the incumbent Dems survives among Pryor, Landrieu and Begich, so if I were betting I'd say it'll be 51-49 with Orman caucusing with Dems.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Taylor was essentially told to withdraw. I understand that Claire had a heart-to-heart discussion with him.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Orman is a "vulture capitalist"...I can't imagine why Democrats would want him in office after smearing Romney so enthusiastically for being the same. /s

 

[senseamp]

Because he's not a Republican. GOP is damaged in Kansas, of all places. Brownback is in trouble too. That's why Republicans are pinning their hopes on confused voters voting for Democrat who isn't even in the race anymore, they can't win on their own merits.

 

[brycejones]

Taylor was essentially told to withdraw. I understand that Claire had a heart-to-heart discussion with him.

Taylor already had no presence in the race, no advertising, no ground game, etc.

His withdrawal was an acknowledgement of reality.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Taylor already had no presence in the race, no advertising, no ground game, etc.

His withdrawal was an acknowledgement of reality.

His withdrawal came immediately after a conversation with Claire McCaskill. Several sources said that she convinced him to withdraw. Now Taylor is suing and needs to convince the Kansas Supreme Court to remove him from the ballot. However, the law is very strict on this as it requires Taylor to declare that he's incapable of fulfilling the duties of office if elected....which is obviously not the case. This is a blatant political ploy.

Funny how politics work...no?

http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article2116230.html

 

[Fern]

-snip-
Predictions?

1. Thanks for posting that. Maddow has been harping on this for a while (the Dem candidate trying to drop out etc.. I now understand what she's going on about. (I always seem to to tune in a bit late and miss the beginning part.)

2. Heard Joe Trippi yesterday IIRC. This is similar to what he said:

"We all thought four were in the bag [for Republicans]," Democratic campaign strategist Joe Trippi said. "But right now, it's looking like the bottom end of that scale isn't four anymore, it's five or six. And that means the entire Senate majority is on the bubble."

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/08/26/republicans-gaining-momentum-in-race-for-control-senate/

I.e., trending in Repubs favor ATM.

Fern

 

[Fern]

Because he's not a Republican. GOP is damaged in Kansas, of all places. Brownback is in trouble too. That's why Republicans are pinning their hopes on confused voters voting for Democrat who isn't even in the race anymore, they can't win on their own merits.

Sounds like Orman is trying to confuse voters by not running as the Democrat that he is.

Fern

 

[senseamp]

Why does it matter who convinced him to withdraw? He withdrew, his name should be off the ballot.

 

[senseamp]

Sounds like Orman is trying to confuse voters by not running as the Democrat that he is.

Fern

That's for voters to decide. It's not same as trying to trick voters into voting for a candidate who is out of the race by artificially keeping his name on the ballot.

 

[K1052]

However, the law is very strict on this as it requires Taylor to declare that he's incapable of fulfilling the duties of office if elected....which is obviously not the case.

At least a dozen other candidates in Kansas have withdrawn under the same rules and they were not hindered AFAIK. From what I've read this whole thing basically hinges on if the declaration was notarized even though the Secretary of State has accepted them without in the past. The statute requires the candidate withdrawing to produce no evidence or reason for their claim of incapability.

 

[werepossum]

At least a dozen other candidates in Kansas have withdrawn under the same rules and they were not hindered AFAIK. From what I've read this whole thing basically hinges on if the declaration was notarized even though the Secretary of State has accepted them without in the past. The statute requires the candidate withdrawing to produce no evidence or reason for their claim of incapability.

lol The Democrat who hasn't got a chance should lie and claim incapability so that this other Democrat who is lying about not being a Democrat can win. Nice.

Reminds me of the Torch and the Massachusetts Supreme Court. "Hmm, the law says you can't remove a candidate after this date, but it gives us no guidance on how to remove a candidate after that date - so we can do whatever we want."

 

[brycejones]

His withdrawal came immediately after a conversation with Claire McCaskill. Several sources said that she convinced him to withdraw. Now Taylor is suing and needs to convince the Kansas Supreme Court to remove him from the ballot. However, the law is very strict on this as it requires Taylor to declare that he's incapable of fulfilling the duties of office if elected....which is obviously not the case. This is a blatant political ploy.

Funny how politics work...no?

http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article2116230.html

LOL.....Kobach selectively enforced the law in this case. I love it when people from halfway across the country suddenly think they know about Kansas politics.

 

[brycejones]

Sounds like Orman is trying to confuse voters by not running as the Democrat that he is.

Fern

Dude whatever. I have a feeling there are things I don't agree with Orman on but are you seriously trying to defend Roberts just based on party love? Milton (his primary opponent) was a whack job but had a very valid point that Roberts' sole claim to residence in the state was a recliner at a friend's house.

Its time for Roberts to go. Now the outrage seems to be that independents and Democrats may have figured out a way to actually make that happen so its suddenly some evil "conspiracy" by the evil progressives.

Get a grip kids. I think the election is to close to call and honestly think Roberts will pull it out in the end but the hand wringing is quite funny.

 

[werepossum]

Dude whatever. I have a feeling there are things I don't agree with Orman on but are you seriously trying to defend Roberts just based on party love? Milton (his primary opponent) was a whack job but had a very valid point that Roberts' sole claim to residence in the state was a recliner at a friend's house.

Its time for Roberts to go. Now the outrage seems to be that independents and Democrats may have figured out a way to actually make that happen so its suddenly some evil "conspiracy" by the evil progressives.

Get a grip kids. I think the election is to close to call and honestly think Roberts will pull it out in the end but the hand wringing is quite funny.

I actually agree that Roberts needs to go, along with everyone else who has been there over two terms, but it should be done under the law.

 

[brycejones]

I actually agree that Roberts needs to go, along with everyone else who has been there over two terms, but it should be done under the law.

I'm prepared to accept whatever way the Kansas Supreme Court rules on this one. But so far it appears that the standards applied in the past have been spotty at best and before submitting his withdrawal Taylor consulted with the SoS office about what he needed to do. Also there is nothing in the law that states Kobach is the determining authority about rather or not the requirements have been met.

 

[K1052]

lol The Democrat who hasn't got a chance should lie and claim incapability so that this other Democrat who is lying about not being a Democrat can win. Nice.

Under the law as it is written and has been enforced in the past...yea. Even one of the judges pointed out that the candidate isn't required to give a reason if they take the out.

 

[werepossum]

I'm prepared to accept whatever way the Kansas Supreme Court rules on this one. But so far it appears that the standards applied in the past have been spotty at best and before submitting his withdrawal Taylor consulted with the SoS office about what he needed to do. Also there is nothing in the law that states Kobach is the determining authority about rather or not the requirements have been met.

Under the law as it is written and has been enforced in the past...yea. Even one of the judges pointed out that the candidate isn't required to give a reason if they take the out.

And this is surprising - how, exactly? Kansas is a Republican state; its laws are interpreted to favor Republicans. Massachusetts is a Democrat state; its laws are interpreted to favor Democrats. Let's at least get outraged when the law isn't followed rather than when it is, even if it's not our team's guy.

 

[Anarchist420]

if the Party of Wilson (the first "progressive" to infiltrate the "party of Jefferson, Jackson, Cleveland" who became President) loses every seat they have to the party of lincoln, then the usual bullshit will continue in D.C.

just like if the Party of Lincoln (as of which Dr. DiLorenzo calls "the party of great moral frauds" and that increased govt revenue every time they were ever in power while claiming to cut taxes, except under the admins of harding and coolidge) loses every seat they have to the Party of wilson, then the usual bullshit will continue in d.c.

 

[DominionSeraph]

And this is surprising - how, exactly? Kansas is a Republican state; its laws are interpreted to favor Republicans. Massachusetts is a Democrat state; its laws are interpreted to favor Democrats.

This is what racists actually believe.

 

[First]

Why does it matter who convinced him to withdraw? He withdrew, his name should be off the ballot.

This. Just sounds like sour grapes. Orman looks like a good candidate, nothing like Romney from all indications.

 

[senseamp]

http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article2120909.html

TOPEKA
A Kansas City Democrat who filed a brief with the Kansas Supreme Court in opposition to Chad Taylor’s withdrawal from the U.S. Senate race is the father of a Brownback campaign staffer.

The Kansas Supreme Court will review Tuesday whether Taylor, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, should be allowed to come off the November ballot. David Orel, a 57-year-old from Kansas City, Kan., filed an amicus brief with the court on Monday.

The brief argues that allowing Taylor to withdraw from the ballot would rob Orel, a Democrat, from his right to vote for his party’s nominee.

“This case is about preserving the integrity of primary elections and the votes cast in such elections,” Orel’s brief, written by his attorney Thomas Haney, states.

His son, Alexander Orel, works as a regional field director in the Kansas City area for Gov. Sam Brownback’s re-election campaign.

John Milburn, a Brownback campaign spokesman, confirmed that Alexander Orel was the son of the man who filed the brief. He declined to comment on the brief or any other aspects of the case beyond the confirmation and said the younger Orel would not be available for comment.

Looks like Republicans astroturfed the Kansas supreme court. Tsk tsk.