*update* SOUTH DAKOTA...R's may lose chance at Senate control because of....KANSAS

[brycejones]

http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article2120909.html



Looks like Republicans astroturfed the Kansas supreme court. Tsk tsk.

Well the Kansas GOP is suddenly very concerned about disenfranchising Democrats. Just pay no attention to the fight over proof of citizenship requirements or the thousands of suspended voter registrations.

 

[First]

Washington Post, NY Times and Nate Silver's 538 all show a collapse in Republican's changes of taking the Senate as compared to just a few weeks ago:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ve-a-51-percent-chance-of-holding-the-senate/

Democrats are now (very slightly) favored to hold the Senate majority on Nov. 4, according to Election Lab, The Post's statistical model of the 2014 midterm elections.

Election Lab puts Democrats' chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent — a huge change from even a few months ago, when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control. (Worth noting: When the model showed Republicans as overwhelming favorites, our model builders — led by George Washington University's John Sides — warned that the model could and would change as more actual polling — as opposed to historical projections — played a larger and larger role in the calculations. And, in Republicans' defense, no one I talked to ever thought they had an 80 percent chance of winning the majority.)

So, what exactly has changed to move the Election Lab projection? Three big things:

* Colorado: On Aug. 27 — the last time I wrote a big piece on the model — Election Lab said Sen. Mark Udall (D) had a 64 percent chance of winning. Today he has a 94 percent chance.

* Iowa: Two weeks ago, the model gave state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) a 72 percent chance of winning. Today she has a 59 percent chance.

* Kansas: Republican Sen. Pat Roberts's reelection race wasn't even on the radar on Aug. 27. Today, Election Lab predicts that he has just a 68 percent chance of winning.

In addition to that trio of moves in Democrats' direction, Louisiana has moved slightly in Democrats' favor (from a 57 percent chance of losing to a 53 percent chance), as has North Carolina (a 97 percent chance of winning now as opposed to a 92 percent chance on Aug. 27).


By contrast, Alaska has moved in Republicans' direction (Democratic Sen. Mark Begich's chances of winning are down from 66 percent to 53 percent), and Georgia has become more of a sure-thing hold (a 91 percent GOP win vs. an 84 percent hold).

The movement toward Democrats in the Election Lab model isn't unique. LEO, the New York Times' Upshot model, gives Republicans a 51 percent chance of winning the Senate — but that is down significantly over the past few weeks.


Image courtesy of The Upshot
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight model now has Republican chances of winning the Senate at 55 percent, down from 64 percent 12 days ago. "The two states with the largest shifts have been Colorado and North Carolina — in both cases, the movement has been in Democrats’ direction," Silver writes. "That accounts for most of the difference in the forecast."

It's important to note that these models change daily as new polling is released and factored in. So, tomorrow it's possible that Election Lab will show Republicans with a very narrow edge in the battle for the Senate. What you should take away from the models then is a) all three have moved toward Democrats of late and b) all three show the battle for the Senate majority to be the truest of tossups at the moment.

What's interesting about the election models is that they are moving in the opposite direction of political handicappers. In recent days, Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook, the two best-known, nonpartisan prognosticators in Washington, have each written that the possibility of large-scale Republicans gains is increasing, not decreasing. Wrote Stu last week:

After looking at recent national, state and congressional survey data and comparing this election cycle to previous ones, I am currently expecting a sizable Republican Senate wave. The combination of an unpopular president and a midterm election (indeed, a second midterm) can produce disastrous results for the president’s party. President Barack Obama’s numbers could rally, of course, and that would change my expectations in the blink of an eye. But as long as his approval sits in the 40-percent range (the August NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll), the signs are ominous for Democrats.

These two sets of predictions are not mutually exclusive. Charlie and Stu are trying to look ahead seven weeks to predict the outcome; the election models are measuring the chances as of today. Still, it's a fascinating split — and one to watch over the final seven weeks of the 2014 election.

Granted, it's still basically 50-50. But as I was saying before, some of these models take incumbency into consideration, and that really favors the Dems. All they need is one of the three endangered red state Dems to survive and then have the Dems in states Obama won in 2012 win, and they'll keep the Senate.

 

[werepossum]

Washington Post, NY Times and Nate Silver's 538 all show a collapse in Republican's changes of taking the Senate as compared to just a few weeks ago:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ve-a-51-percent-chance-of-holding-the-senate/

Granted, it's still basically 50-50. But as I was saying before, some of these models take incumbency into consideration, and that really favors the Dems. All they need is one of the three endangered red state Dems to survive and then have the Dems in states Obama won in 2012 win, and they'll keep the Senate.

Honestly I'm going to be amazed if the Pubbies win back the Senate. Generally when they assemble for battle, it's in a circle.

 

[brycejones]

Supreme Court: Democrat Chad Taylor’s name can be taken off ballot for U.S. Senate

Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article2155489.html#storylink=cpy

I have a feeling it won't be long for the deluge of negative adds to start now that it is effectively a 2 horse race.

 

[Fern]

I'm not sure it matters all that much. I'm having trouble thinking of anything that will substantially change if the Repubs take the Senate. I would expect Obama to veto instead of cave. That probably wouldn't be necessary though because of filibusters in the Senate.

Fern

 

[werepossum]

I'm not sure it matters all that much. I'm having trouble thinking of anything that will substantially change if the Repubs take the Senate. I would expect Obama to veto instead of cave. That probably wouldn't be necessary though because of filibusters in the Senate.

Fern

One huge thing - Obama nominees. Right now Obama can nominate anyone he wants and have them sail through since Reid nixed the filibuster. If the Pubbies take the Senate, he has to pick off at least one Republican, and in the Senate both parties are voting party line on anything important.

 

[Fern]

One huge thing - Obama nominees. Right now Obama can nominate anyone he wants and have them sail through since Reid nixed the filibuster. If the Pubbies take the Senate, he has to pick off at least one Republican, and in the Senate both parties are voting party line on anything important.

Good point. I forgot that Reid nixed the filibuster for that.

Fern

 

[K1052]

Supreme Court: Democrat Chad Taylor’s name can be taken off ballot for U.S. Senate

Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article2155489.html#storylink=cpy

I have a feeling it won't be long for the deluge of negative adds to start now that it is effectively a 2 horse race.

Apparently Kobach doesn't think it's over and he plans to legally compel the Democrats to nominate a replacement candidate...something KSC declined to consider when hearing the case. Hearing Robert's concerns for disenfranchised Democrats is pretty touching.

 

[brycejones]

Apparently Kobach doesn't think it's over and he plans to legally compel the Democrats to nominate a replacement candidate...something KSC declined to consider when hearing the case. Hearing Robert's concerns for disenfranchised Democrats is pretty touching.

What's interesting is the "law and order" Kobach has arbitrarily moved out the deadline for sending out ballots I'm sure the date will move again when the Democrats decline to name a replacement. On a humorous front there is talk of them putting Roberts name on the ballot.

 

[Jhhnn]

Apparently Kobach doesn't think it's over and he plans to legally compel the Democrats to nominate a replacement candidate...something KSC declined to consider when hearing the case. Hearing Robert's concerns for disenfranchised Democrats is pretty touching.

There's some desperation showing, that's for sure. How the Hell does he think he can force Dems to nominate another candidate, anyway?

 

[brycejones]

There's some desperation showing, that's for sure. How the Hell does he think he can force Dems to nominate another candidate, anyway?

Throwing a tantrum on the floor? Kobach came into the SoS office looking to make it a more powerful position. Early in his tenure he lobbied hard to be given the jurisdiction to investigate and prosecute voter fraud cases he was shot down even by a heavily GOP dominated legislature. At the rate he is going I have a feeling Kansans are going to be very careful about who they elect to the office going forward.

 

[bradly1101]

Did you see Rachel Maddow on this tonight? Priceless!

 

[DominionSeraph]

Supreme Court: Democrat Chad Taylor’s name can be taken off ballot for U.S. Senate

Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article2155489.html#storylink=cpy

Unanimous? What the heck is the Kansas Republican party doing that they haven't managed to get one True Conservative on the SC bench?

 

[Jhhnn]

Throwing a tantrum on the floor? Kobach came into the SoS office looking to make it a more powerful position. Early in his tenure he lobbied hard to be given the jurisdiction to investigate and prosecute voter fraud cases he was shot down even by a heavily GOP dominated legislature. At the rate he is going I have a feeling Kansans are going to be very careful about who they elect to the office going forward.

Gotta love the Kansas Dem Chairwoman's remarks- "My position is until the court tells me to do something, I’m not going to do anything,”

Which won't happen, something the Court knew when it issued its ruling. They did leave plenty of room for Kobach to make a fool of himself, however.

Sadly amusing, I'm afraid.

 

[DominionSeraph]

Which won't happen, something the Court knew when it issued its ruling. They did leave plenty of room for Kobach to make a fool of himself, however.

Sadly amusing, I'm afraid.

Yup. Funny to watch these "small government" "muh freedom" conservatives trying desperately to claim that this law is actively coercive.

 

[werepossum]

Apparently Kobach doesn't think it's over and he plans to legally compel the Democrats to nominate a replacement candidate...something KSC declined to consider when hearing the case. Hearing Robert's concerns for disenfranchised Democrats is pretty touching.

That should actually be pretty amusing.

"I demand you name a candidate."

"Yeah . . . Be sure and let me know how that works out for you."

I'm disappointed that SCOKAN would allow someone to get off the ballot for incapability when it's obviously nothing more than politics, but it is nice to see an essentially one-party state's court balk that party.

 

[senseamp]

I am worried that this Kris Kobach character will use his office of the SoS to rig the election for Roberts and himself with various voter suppression tricks that GOP likes to use.

 

[trenchfoot]

So the last I heard was that Kobach required a decision be made by a ballot printing deadline he quoted and the KSC unanimously returned a decision that let the Dem candidate's name be removed from the ballots in time for the deadline.

Kobach responded to that by refuting himself of the ballot printing deadline and inexplicably extended the deadline he previously quoted. He then "ordered" the Kansas Dem Party to put a candidate on the ballot by the "new" deadline he now has established.

IMO, this guy Kobach, he must be getting a whole lot of pressure from powerful influences outside of the state for him to behave so erratically and really looks like a guy trying to keep his head above water with a 500 lb. concrete block tied around his ankles.

I have to consider this guy a freak'in loose cannon lunatic pushed over the edge from his failure to reconcile what's happening in reality with his view of how omnipotent his powers as SecState is.

There is no pretense in his actions. He is, all on his own accord, attempting to sway a very important election in the Repub's favor by contemptuously and blatantly abusing his powers (real or imagined) as SecState.

 

[sportage]

Democrats dunt have to do nuten.
They don't have to replace the name, they don't have to act on the request, they don't have to listen to a single thing this guy says, anymore.
And besides, he has his own re-election worries to be concerned about.
Dunt look too good for guy. And after the court ruling, either guy.

You could say this is dirty politics on both sides.
And thats the fun with this one.

 

[Jhhnn]

So the last I heard was that Kobach required a decision be made by a ballot printing deadline he quoted and the KSC unanimously returned a decision that let the Dem candidate's name be removed from the ballots in time for the deadline.

Kobach responded to that by refuting himself of the ballot printing deadline and inexplicably extended the deadline he previously quoted. He then "ordered" the Kansas Dem Party to put a candidate on the ballot by the "new" deadline he now has established.

IMO, this guy Kobach, he must be getting a whole lot of pressure from powerful influences outside of the state for him to behave so erratically and really looks like a guy trying to keep his head above water with a 500 lb. concrete block tied around his ankles.

I have to consider this guy a freak'in loose cannon lunatic pushed over the edge from his failure to reconcile what's happening in reality with his view of how omnipotent his powers as SecState is.

There is no pretense in his actions. He is, all on his own accord, attempting to sway a very important election in the Repub's favor by contemptuously and blatantly abusing his powers (real or imagined) as SecState.

Kobach is simply a partisan zealot. It's like the Crusades- there is no Sin when on a mission from God.

 

[brycejones]

So the last I heard was that Kobach required a decision be made by a ballot printing deadline he quoted and the KSC unanimously returned a decision that let the Dem candidate's name be removed from the ballots in time for the deadline.

Kobach responded to that by refuting himself of the ballot printing deadline and inexplicably extended the deadline he previously quoted. He then "ordered" the Kansas Dem Party to put a candidate on the ballot by the "new" deadline he now has established.

IMO, this guy Kobach, he must be getting a whole lot of pressure from powerful influences outside of the state for him to behave so erratically and really looks like a guy trying to keep his head above water with a 500 lb. concrete block tied around his ankles.

I have to consider this guy a freak'in loose cannon lunatic pushed over the edge from his failure to reconcile what's happening in reality with his view of how omnipotent his powers as SecState is.

There is no pretense in his actions. He is, all on his own accord, attempting to sway a very important election in the Repub's favor by contemptuously and blatantly abusing his powers (real or imagined) as SecState.

Kobach doesn't need pressure to behave this way, this is his natural state.

 

[senseamp]

Republicans are using Bush v Gore as a model to get around their unpopularity.

 

[cabri]

Democrats dunt have to do nuten.
They don't have to replace the name, they don't have to act on the request, they don't have to listen to a single thing this guy says, anymore.
And besides, he has his own re-election worries to be concerned about.
Dunt look too good for guy. And after the court ruling, either guy.

You could say this is dirty politics on both sides.
And thats the fun with this one.

Link

Apparently the Kansas Supreme Count says otherwise.

Kansas election officials must remove the name of the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate from the November election ballot, the Kansas Supreme Court ruled on Thursday

Democrat Chad Taylor properly withdrew from the race when he submitted papers two weeks ago and Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach is ordered not to include him on the ballot, the state supreme court ruled

 

[senseamp]

When a Kansas judge with Teddy Roosevelt mustache has to lay the law down on the Republican state official, you know how far the party has fallen

 

[Oldgamer]

Last night on the news they said that Secretary of State Kris Kobach had told the Judge that there was a hard and fast time limit and that the ballots had to be reflective of any changes by todays date 9/19/14. In his argument to the court he said that it was too late to make such changes and that they (he) wouldn't have enough time to get these changes (if they were made) done by today's date and that the name should remain on the ballot. That was his logic and argument at the time.

However, once the court ruled that he must comply and take the name off the ballot, he suddenly changed his tune and that "hard and fast deadline" was pushed by about 2 weeks. He is demanding that Democrats pick another candidate within the next 2 weeks and telling them "someone has to be on the ballot" in place of the name that was taken off. The Democrats have said that he as the Secretary of State cannot force them to pick someone on the fly and they are essentially giving him the bird on this.

Legal experts say that the Secretary of State Kris Kobach cannot order the Democrats to do this.

The reason why he is trying so hard to get another name on the ballot is that the numbers do not favor the Republican candidate Sen. Pat Roberts and now that there is only two names on the ballot it looks like independent candidate Greg Orman just might win putting the Senate in peril for Republicans.

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