Unarmed black 17 year old shot by Neighborhood watch captain in gated community...

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Feb 10, 2000
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In light of that question, and the prolonged deliberations, I am now revising my predicted odds as follows:

EDIT: corrected version is as follows -

- 45% - conviction for manslaughter
- 40% - total acquittal
- 12% - hung jury
- 3% - conviction for second-degree murder


I really do hate to say it, because I think Zimmerman is innocent, but I see it as fairly likely the jury will split the baby by convicting him of manslaughter at this point.
 
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lotus503

Diamond Member
Feb 12, 2005
6,502
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In light of that question, and the prolonged deliberations, I am now revising my predicted odds as follows:

- 45% - conviction for manslaughter
- 40% - total acquittal
- 12% - conviction for second-degree murder
- 3% - hung jury

I really do hate to say it, because I think Zimmerman is innocent, but I see it as likely the jury will split the baby by convicting him of manslaughter at this point.

if that more based on their question or the fact its been so long?
 
Feb 10, 2000
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if that more based on their question or the fact its been so long?

More on their question, but the delay is also problematic from a defense perspective. The length of deliberations is not especially surprising - this is a murder case - but it does suggest that the jury doesn't view this as a straightforward case of self-defense.

Somewhere in the hills of Kentucky, spidey is loading magazines, cleaning bores and swearing at the TV right now . . .
 

Darkman

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2013
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In light of that question, and the prolonged deliberations, I am now revising my predicted odds as follows:

- 45% - conviction for manslaughter
- 40% - total acquittal
- 12% - conviction for second-degree murder
- 3% - hung jury

I really do hate to say it, because I think Zimmerman is innocent, but I see it as fairly likely the jury will split the baby by convicting him of manslaughter at this point.
lol .. nope .. can't do that... stay with your original choices :)

..... don't change your mind more often than cruel Winnipeg's wind)))
 

Darkman

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2013
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when the dude has been up all night and now he is typing and vacuuming at the same time, its a fair question ;)
f*ck man)) .. I DID sleep .. - from around 8 am to 10 am (or so)

and then from 1 to 4 pm (or something like that))))
 

lotus503

Diamond Member
Feb 12, 2005
6,502
1
76
More on their question, but the delay is also problematic from a defense perspective. The length of deliberations is not especially surprising - this is a murder case - but it does suggest that the jury doesn't view this as a straightforward case of self-defense.

Somewhere in the hills of Kentucky, spidey is loading magazines, cleaning bores and swearing at the TV right now . . .

Fat%20Soldier.jpg
 
Feb 10, 2000
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lol .. nope .. can't do that... stay with your original choices :)

..... don't change your mind more often than cruel Winnipeg's wind)))

D'oh! Made an error in typing that out. My actual prediction:

- 45% - conviction for manslaughter
- 40% - total acquittal
- 12% - hung jury
- 3% - conviction for second-degree murder
 

Darkman

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2013
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CNN:

Sunny said .. Judge said .. she ll let jury go till 3 a.m
As long as they are working there Nelson will let it go till 3 am..

Maybe they told the judge that they are progressiving .. and close ...

or told FRANK :))))))
 
Feb 10, 2000
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That isn't a prediction. You'll be right no matter what they do.

The whole thing is a human enterprise and, accordingly, unpredictable. Going into deliberations I thought a full acquittal was very likely - now I am far less confident of that. If my setting odds is not a "prediction," call it whatever you're comfortable with.