UN trying to create report that says Iran is working on developing nuclear weapons.

[Karl Agathon]

Israel has plenty of second strike capability and those animals know it. There is really nothing anyone can do about iran now. Any strike (short of nuclear) might slow them down, but it wont stop them. I say welcome them to the nuclear club and let them know they now have an official nuclear target on their back. it will be funny to see what all the people who said iran wanting to develop nukes was nonsense have to say now. I mean, according to them and the iranian leadership, they were only interested in nuclear energy I thought???

 

[woolfe9999]

When the report comes out tomorrow that might be reason for a new thread, but I don't think we need a new thread on how the report is going to come out later.

http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2203893

 

[a777pilot]

Nothing is going to happen so long as we have a muslim President. Well, nothing good for Israel and the free world that is.

 

[Double Trouble]

At this point it's safe to say Iran is going to join the nuclear club, sooner or later. I don't see any mechanism short of pulverizing the entire country that would be effective enough to keep them from getting the bomb. The sanctions (for the umpteenth time in history) have proven ineffective. Now it's just a matter of containment. I'm sure Israel is weighing it's options, but Iran was a little smarter than Iraq and Syria, they likely learned from their mistakes and made sure to disperse the facilities and/or hide them further underground.

 

[Strk]

good... It will keep Israel in check. I doubt it will change anything ... the only thing it will change will be no more threats to go bomb them.

Except it will drive other countries in the middle east towards their own nuclear programs. No one in that region likes Iran.

 

[PeshakJang]

good... It will keep Israel in check. I doubt it will change anything ... the only thing it will change will be no more threats to go bomb them.

We all know you'd like to see Israel nuked and millions killed (as long as they are Jews). You've stated it before, we don't need to hear it again.

 

[Macamus Prime]

,... Jesus. Not this again.

Hey, wasn't Iran "very close" to having a nuclear bomb 5 years ago??

Oh,... and lets look at this series of events; http://www.wisconsinproject.org/countries/iran/nuke-miles.htm

There is a LOOOOOOONG series of "very close" moments.

Just add this sucker to that list and get back to us the next time Iran gets your vagina all rattled and scared.

 

[Macamus Prime]

Nothing is going to happen so long as we have a muslim President. Well, nothing good for Israel and the free world that is.

,... wait - I thought he was a turtle?

 

[airdata]

Oh, I guess this means we're going to war with Iran.

I'll give it max of 18 months before all of this intel is proven to be made up and complete bullshit.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Nothing is going to happen so long as we have a muslim President. Well, nothing good for Israel and the free world that is.

So nothing factual or valid to add so you run back to the right wing extremist meme of Obama's a Muslim!!!!! ?

Just once try forming an actual, fact based opinion will you?

 

[Macamus Prime]

Guys, I found the cover to this report,... and it looks pretty serious.

 

[brandonb]

Israel has plenty of second strike capability and those animals know it.

Animals?

The UN report is just propaganda. How can they possibly know how close Iran is if this is a secret weapons program? Or did Stuxnet give them some information that we don't know about?

 

[EagleKeeper]

good... It will keep Israel in check. I doubt it will change anything ... the only thing it will change will be no more threats to go bomb them.

Large difference between a bomb and a delivery method for it.

Dirty backpack/suitcase bombs will be more dangerous to Israel than a warhead delivered by a missile.

 

[Macamus Prime]

Dirty backpack/suitcase bombs will be more dangerous to Israel than a warhead delivered by a missile.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/dirtybomb/chrono.html

The history of the dirty bomb has yet to be written, because fortunately no one to date has ever deployed a conventional explosive laced with radioactive material.

Can we go through the logistics in creating, transporting and successfully detonating a dirty bomb? And, what will the result be of a detonated dirty bomb?

Or, even the fantasy that an Iranian will cross into Israel without being detected that he is soaked with radioactivity (which would have killed him pretty fucking quickly).

Terrorists execute crude & easy (but effective) methods of killing innocents. They use explosives, guns and have used airplanes. The airplane attacks were mostly due to social engineering as far as I am concerned. Americans need to wise up; but not to the point where they conduct witch hunts and compromise their freedom to live and enjoy life.

But, we have yet to see sophisticated, coordinated and successful attacks that involved radioactive materials.

Now, by all means, take the measure to ensure they don't detonate a dirty bomb - LIKE A FUCKING GEIGER READER. If some asshole shows up with something the SCREAMS red flags (dirty nukes are just that - dirty; akward looking, etc) and he is LEAKING radiation (that has yet to somehow NOT kill him yet), you shoot him.

If he is capable of hiding the radioactivity - then you have another problem on your hands; you are facing Superman or something capable of lugging all those layers of lead and protection to keep the radioctivity from spilling out and he wants you dead. Do you think he will detonate himself,... or just outright kill you with his super strength?

How many 13lb lead bricks will you need to mask a dirty bomb?

http://www.drct.com/lead_bricks.html

And, if the moron at the TSA security check doesn't realize that 10 of these suckers in a teddy bear don't make any sense, then you have another entirely different problem on your hands; Terrorist Superman wasn't labeled as a problem, as he carried a 130 pound lead teddy bear that still gets picked up by a geiger reader - time to get a new TSA security agent.

 

[K1052]

Basically says that Iran has the knowledge/expertise now to construct a weapon. Getting the fissile material to weapons grade has proven a lot more difficult. Then you have to actually build the warhead and have it be deliverable. Of course it can never be tested so they'll never actually know if it works.

 

[K1052]

But, we have yet to see sophisticated, coordinated and successful attacks that involved radioactive materials.

I think most of the reason is the huge unpredictability of what the retaliation might be, particularly if you're talking about a nuclear armed target country. Setting off a dirty bomb in a western population center might sound like a capital idea to run of the mill terrorists but the nations that control these materials don't want to risk the materials being tracked back to them, no matter how small the risk.

 

[Nebor]

Basically says that Iran has the knowledge/expertise now to construct a weapon. Getting the fissile material to weapons grade has proven a lot more difficult. Then you have to actually build the warhead and have it be deliverable. Of course it can never be tested so they'll never actually know if it works.

Exactly. No one can say with any certainty that North Korea has functional nuclear weapons. Every test they've conducted has resulted in an explosion so small that they've been judged failures due to improper construction.

That means we still have time to strike Iran. My sphincter has tightened to DEFCON 8.

 

[Macamus Prime]

I think most of the reason is the huge unpredictability of what the retaliation might be, particularly if you're talking about a nuclear armed target country. Setting off a dirty bomb in a western population center might sound like a capital idea to run of the mill terrorists but the nations that control these materials don't want to risk the materials being tracked back to them, no matter how small the risk.

Agreed.

Some would argue that Iran creates the materials, sends them to the terrorists (via local postal service of course) and the terrorist then carry out an attack.

Well, just as you have stated, I am sure the line can be traced back to Iran. You detonate 3 dirty bombs in NYC (with materials supplied by Iran - and PERFECTLY capable abilities of the actual terrorists carrying the attack), all of Iran then gets blown sky high via modern nuclear tech.

It would be easier to take "pot shots" at modern western countries with their bombs and guns; it worked for the Vietnamese.

 

[EagleKeeper]

There is a potential that someone in Iran will hand off some material to an anti-Israel terror group and that material is turned into a explosive targeted at Israel. they all ready have no qualms about shipping weapons, explosives and mobile missiles to the proxies

Israel would have to put detectors at every border entry point; still can be circumvented as demonstrated recently the terrorists/"freedom fighters" can come in from Egypt which has a large open border. Also, they could tunnel under the border (Gaza). Or just run across the border using a diversion (Lebanon)

 

[Macamus Prime]

There is a potential that someone in Iran will hand off some material to an anti-Israel terror group and that material is turned into a explosive targeted at Israel. they all ready have no qualms about shipping weapons, explosives and mobile missiles to the proxies

Israel would have to put detectors at every border entry point; still can be circumvented as demonstrated recently the terrorists/"freedom fighters" can come in from Egypt which has a large open border. Also, they could tunnel under the border (Gaza). Or just run across the border using a diversion (Lebanon)

Dirty bomb != Portable RPG.

There is still quite the complicated matter of successfully donating the radioactive matieral. Successful being; not posioning the terrorist with the radioactive material - so you have to ensure it is well encased. But, not so well enchased that when it blows up, said material is still in the encasement.

I hope the terrorists carry radioactive material WITH out lead protection, they will die before they even get to the attack site.

:biggrin:

 

[K1052]

There is a potential that someone in Iran will hand off some material to an anti-Israel terror group and that material is turned into a explosive targeted at Israel. they all ready have no qualms about shipping weapons, explosives and mobile missiles to the proxies

Israel would have to put detectors at every border entry point; still can be circumvented as demonstrated recently the terrorists/"freedom fighters" can come in from Egypt which has a large open border. Also, they could tunnel under the border (Gaza). Or just run across the border using a diversion (Lebanon)

The main problem is that it's exceedingly risky with unpredictable outcomes (which is why it hasn't happened yet). Israel's response could be anything from sinking some Iranian tankers to flattening Tehran with a megaton range nuclear weapon.

 

[Brovane]

Even if Iran has or will have a nuclear weapon they do not have a reliable delivery method for the nuclear weapon. It is one thing to have the ability to create a nuclear warhead it is another to get a reliable delivery method.

Any Iranian first generation nuclear weapon will be several tons. So briefcase nuclear weapons etc are out of the picture. Trying to get a dirty nuke inside of Israeli will also be very dangerous for everyone involved. All it takes is discovery along one point of the journey and you could have a international incident or worse case scenario you have inbound nuclear tipped missiles from Israeli. Israeli has one of the best protected borders in the world. The occupied areas are a little more shifty but to actually get from the occupied areas into Israeli itself would be very dicey. Detonating a weapon on the border wouldn't be nearly as effective.

Basically Iran working to get nuclear weapons just gives it a bigger stick at the table. The problem with nuclear weapons is that if you use them on another nuclear power with nuclear weapons and a reliable delivery system you will also get your own country destroyed.

 

[polarmystery]

Nothing is going to happen so long as we have a muslim President. Well, nothing good for Israel and the free world that is.

 

[nageov3t]

Nothing is going to happen so long as we have a muslim President. Well, nothing good for Israel and the free world that is.

is Obama sunni or shiite in the reality you've created?

because as much as a nuclear Iran threatens Israel, it probably threatens Saudi Arabia even more.

the real danger with a nuclear Iran is that it kicks off a Middle East arms race.

 

[fskimospy]

So what then is your solution to nuclear non-proliferation?

I don't think we have very many good options. Not having a good solution is not a reason to undertake a bad solution though.