~~~The Official Iowa Caucus discussion Thread~~~

[Lemon law]

Some of the descent analysis is coming in dribs and dabs. According to what I have read from various reports, in terms of delegates won, Huckabee buried Romney 30 to 7. On the democratic side Obama won 16, Hillary won 15, and Edwards only 14 despite the fact he out polled Clinton.

Voter turn out was up sharply for both parties. With the dems nearly doubling from 124k to 220k and the repubs from 87k to 114k. On the democratic side, Edwards did best with voters who showed in 2004, but newbies broke sharply for Obama across the demographics of young, old, and women. On the Republican side, at least 40% of Huckabee support came from evangelical Christians who went almost 100% Huckabee. As for Richardson and Kucinich, each recommended their supporters support other candidates, so their support is not accurately gaged.

Given that round two in New Hampshire will not have as many motivated evangelical Christians dominating turnout, can Huckabee make it a twofer perhaps knocking Romney out? And will Obama continue his winning ways?

 

[Corbett]

This just in. Ron Paul supporters claim that Paul has actually won the caucus. It seems the "real" caucus was done via online polls!

 

[Corbett]

Originally posted by: Perry404
If Paul picks up one more delegate of the remaining 8000 or so votes it could be a three way tie for third.

Spin Perry! Spin!

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Lemon law

can Huckabee make it a twofer perhaps knocking Romney out? And will Obama continue his winning ways?

not a chance in hell.

NH is a purely McCain/Romney show, and consider Romney down for the count if he loses there too (I seriously can't imagine how much Huckabee is laughing at the fact that Romney dropped like 20 million of his own money into Iowa only to get creamed).

I think this bodes well for McCain's chances in New Hampshire. if Obama comes into NH on a surge, it's that much less likely that the independents will feel like they need to go dem to vote against Hillary, freeing them up go R for McCain.

 

[HeXploiT]

Originally posted by: Corbett

Originally posted by: Perry404
If Paul picks up one more delegate of the remaining 8000 or so votes it could be a three way tie for third.

Spin Perry! Spin!

What are you talking about? Do you know what a delegate is?

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Perry404

Originally posted by: Corbett

Originally posted by: Perry404
If Paul picks up one more delegate of the remaining 8000 or so votes it could be a three way tie for third.

Spin Perry! Spin!

What are you talking about? Do you know what a delegate is?

isn't that what I do all day at work?

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: Corbett

Originally posted by: Perry404
If Paul picks up one more delegate of the remaining 8000 or so votes it could be a three way tie for third.

Spin Perry! Spin!

You sound ignorant about the caucus/delegate system.

 

[nageov3t]

I wonder how much McCain and Huckabee are coordinating with eachother to take Romney out.

they both seem really friendly with each other and really hostile towards Mitt.

 

[bamacre]

Originally posted by: loki8481
they both seem really friendly with each other and really hostile towards Mitt.

That is well expressed here...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPcz34geaAs

 

[Lemon law]

Originally posted by: Corbett
This just in. Ron Paul supporters claim that Paul has actually won the caucus. It seems the "real" caucus was done via online polls!

Knowing Ron Paul supporters, Corbett may have neglected to add on line voters from out of State for truly amazing results. Shows what a little creative thinking can do as Iowa momentarily becomes the most populous State in the Union.

 

[HeXploiT]

Ron Paul took 29% of the independent vote people. New Hampshire is 41% independent!! Most didn't expect Paul to do better than third in Iowa. NH however is another story. I believe it is entirely possible we take first.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...ults/epolls/#val=IAREP

 

[daveymark]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
As for Ron Who, he has cracked the double digits his critics said he would not exceed.

no, he hasn't.


another 200 votes as of right now and then he'd nip the edge.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Some of the descent analysis is coming in dribs and dabs. According to what I have read from various reports, in terms of delegates won, Huckabee buried Romney 30 to 7. On the democratic side Obama won 16, Hillary won 15, and Edwards only 14 despite the fact he out polled Clinton.

Voter turn out was up sharply for both parties. With the dems nearly doubling from 124k to 220k and the repubs from 87k to 114k. On the democratic side, Edwards did best with voters who showed in 2004, but newbies broke sharply for Obama across the demographics of young, old, and women. On the Republican side, at least 40% of Huckabee support came from evangelical Christians who went almost 100% Huckabee. As for Richardson and Kucinich, each recommended their supporters support other candidates, so their support is not accurately gaged.

Given that round two in New Hampshire will not have as many motivated evangelical Christians dominating turnout, can Huckabee make it a twofer perhaps knocking Romney out? And will Obama continue his winning ways?

No he cannot, but McCain can easily knock of Romney in NH now.

Romney might pick off Wyoming and Michigan. Huck looks good in SC.

Florida right now is down between Huck and Giuliani.

A Huckabee vs Obama General Election would be interesting. Not only could is possibly bring in a 3rd party candidate, it could possibly bring one of the highest turnouts. I mean tonight has proven both Obama and Huckabee can mobilize their bases.

 

[0roo0roo]

look at the history of iowas wisdom

it is a list of poor choices and eventual losers. cept for bill clinton, which they slapped down at 3%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus#Democrats

Democrats

* January 3, 2008 - Barack Obama (38%), John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (29%), Bill Richardson (2%) and Joe Biden (1%)
* January 19, 2004 - John Kerry (38%), John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Richard Gephardt (11%) and Dennis Kucinich (1%)
* January 24, 2000 - Al Gore (63%), Bill Bradley (37%)
* February 12, 1996 - Bill Clinton (unopposed)
* February 10, 1992 - Tom Harkin (76%), "Uncommitted" (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%) and Jerry Brown (2%)
* February 8, 1988 - Richard Gephardt (31%), Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis (22%) and Bruce Babbitt (6%)
* February 20, 1984 - Walter Mondale (49%), Gary Hart (17%), George McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Reubin Askew (3%) and Jesse Jackson (2%)
* January 21, 1980 - Jimmy Carter (59%), Ted Kennedy (31%)
* January 19, 1976 - "Uncommitted" (37%), Jimmy Carter (28%) Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%) and Henry M. Jackson (1%)
* January 24, 1972 - "Uncommitted" (36%) and Edmund Muskie (36%), George McGovern (23%), Hubert Humphrey (2%), Eugene McCarthy (1%), Shirley Chisholm (1%) and Henry M. Jackson (1%)[6]

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: Perry404
Ron Paul took 29% of the independent vote people. New Hampshire is 41% independent!! Most didn't expect Paul to do better than third in Iowa. NH however is another story. I believe it is entirely possible we take first.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...ults/epolls/#val=IAREP

Again I point to the polls that were almost dead on in Iowa. Do you honestly think Paul can over come a 20 point defecit in less than a week?

The answer is no. While yes NH is know for its independent voters, they arent looking for a candidate like Paul.

Theres zero reason to believe anyone else but McCain will win at this point.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: 0roo0roo
look at the history of iowas wisdom

* January 3, 2008 - Barack Obama (38%)
* January 19, 2004 - John Kerry (38%)

crap... democrats are F'd, aren't we?

 

[HeXploiT]

Oh and in case no one noticed...Hillary picked up one more delegate than Edwards.

 

[dbk]

OBAMA!!! YES

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: 0roo0roo
look at the history of iowas wisdom

* January 3, 2008 - Barack Obama (38%)
* January 19, 2004 - John Kerry (38%)

crap... democrats are F'd, aren't we?

No by all accounts, after witnessing what they saw in Iowa Republicans fear Obama more than Hillary. After tonight, Obama has shown he can get people out to vote. Obama has energized the electorate. Something previous Dem candidates and some Republicans tried to do but failed.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: loki8481
they both seem really friendly with each other and really hostile towards Mitt.

That is well expressed here...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPcz34geaAs

indeed.

skip to about 3:30 if anyone's curious.

I can't help thinking what a great -- and maybe even positive -- election McCain/Huckabee v Obama/Biden might be.

McCain/Huck would probably nullify the huge advantage the dems have right now with the hispanic vote.

 

[Wreckem]

Look at Zogby's NH poll on Feb 6. That will pretty much tell you how the state is gonna break.

 

[Corbett]

Originally posted by: Perry404

Originally posted by: Corbett

Originally posted by: Perry404
If Paul picks up one more delegate of the remaining 8000 or so votes it could be a three way tie for third.

Spin Perry! Spin!

What are you talking about? Do you know what a delegate is?

Absolutely. But only a truely blind Ron Paul supporter can consider anything today positive for the Paul campaign.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Wreckem
Look at Zogby's NH poll on Feb 6. That will pretty much tell you how the state is gonna break.

the NH primary is on Jan. 8th... we'd BETTER have accurate results for how the state broke on Feb. 6th

 

[Corbett]

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Corbett

Originally posted by: Perry404
If Paul picks up one more delegate of the remaining 8000 or so votes it could be a three way tie for third.

Spin Perry! Spin!

You sound ignorant about the caucus/delegate system.

Not at all. You are just another Ron Paul lemming who cant accept defeat.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Wreckem
Look at Zogby's NH poll on Feb 6. That will pretty much tell you how the state is gonna break.

the NH primary is on Jan. 8th... we'd BETTER have accurate results for how the state broke on Feb. 6th

Err you know what I meant. Jan 6 Zogby will release his first poll. NH will break the same way.