~~~The Official Iowa Caucus discussion Thread~~~

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HeXploiT

Diamond Member
Jun 11, 2004
4,359
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Originally posted by: Obsoleet
Originally posted by: Perry404
I have to apologize for my joke. I don't even know anyone from Iowa so obviously I am ignorant about Iowans.

On another subject...what are your impressions of how Paul is understood by the average Iowan? Are you satisfied with how his message is coming across?

I'm over it, I'm just fearful that because a few evangelicals promoting someone like Hickabee or pabster is representing Iowa here that we all look like a bunch of nut jobs.

My favorite thing about Iowa is the people. You'll hear this from lots of Iowa expats who've come back. It's a purple state and can go either way. Everytime I travel the nation I am always reminded about how reasonable and how much the average Iowan avoids extremes. Sure, we can't satisfy all the nation all the time with the political picks. Some individuals wouldn't be satisfied till they alone play kingmaker. IA isn't a kingmaker by any means anyway if you look at the trackrecord.

The candidates are forced to do face-to-face retail politics here, and you can start a campaign here without needing millions of dollars. This is the advantage to starting in Iowa.
Even though I dislike him, this has been proven with Huckabees rise. I think partially removing money from the early race is good for this country, where money (mainly corporate) already influences politics far too much. While Huck sucks, in the future this might play in the favor to some other underfunded candidate with a powerful message. Most of the disdain for starting in Iowa seems to come from a lack of understanding as to the advantages of it, and mere contempt for flyover country, which is sad as we're one nation.
Everyone likes to feel elite and look down their noses at the next guy to justify a false sense of supremacy.

With this being said, I think the message comes across well if they've been exposed to it. If we had the foot soldiers, which we do in some areas (my area has always needed more) then you can convince people. Few shut out the idea that the war needs to be stopped.

The saddest part is the Republican base that seemingly refuses to do any real research of their own on the candidates, I feel alot of people are on autopilot that I speak with. Even with those people, they don't feel comfortable with what's going on.

I feel I represent the average Iowa Republican myself when I say that I'd be a Democrat right now if they'd gotten us out of Iraq already. That would've demonstrated leadership to me. We can't follow if there's no one to lead.

This made a lot of sense to Iowans. The only ones who it wouldnt are in the minority like Pabster. Iowans like that wouldn't dare say their pro-death demagoguery in public here, it's pretty looked down upon. You'll find people want to save face in the war. We both know Ron offers the best way to do that. Most thoughtful, university educated Iowa Republicans have abandoned the party, I'd say if Obama is the Democratic nominee in a general election Iowa goes Blue. No Republican short of RP has a chance of beating Obama here. If it's Hillary it's a tossup again this election.
About as many people feel she's a great candidate here, as people who think staying in Iraq is a good idea.

The state is receptive to RP's message, but I fear too little money was spent here. NH seems to be where they decided to focus on early in the cycle. Which is fine, you gotta call those shots. This might be due to perceptions that the message wouldn't be popular here when I personally feel it is or could be more so. People are more receptive here than out of state campaigners assume.

Focusing on his abortion stance and articulating his war stance more would have helped if results don't turn out as we hope for. Evangelical or not, most people here don't grasp the necessity of abortion. Most of all, articulating his view that the states should decide these things rather than federal tyranny would probably be even more popular. I do feel the anti-amnesty crowd, a small but fanatical bunch, have now rallied behind Ron Paul now that Tancredos out.

I have nervous anticipation for our results, it's a total tossup here and but am optimistic about NH. A given is that the results will shock a lot of people, I think here in Iowa a shock to the system will be delivered with whatever Ron ends up placing. I suspect it will be better than the pundits and polls say.

Dividing up the pro-death vote by all the other candidates besides Ron is the biggest benefit. The base will probably cannibalize itself between all the other weak candidates and we'll pull out with the independents and Democrats who didn't side with Obama. With no strong peace candidate in the Democratic party we seem to have most of those people as well.

Most Obama people I've met here don't seem terribly concerned with coming out to vote.. while I heard one RP supporter say he'd ice skate to the caucus if he had to. I think we got the best of the Independents and first-time caucus goers (which I'm one of).
Overall, the message works here, but I'm not sure the attention was placed here early on.

Who's the guy in the video you posted? I like his politics, I think I'll vote for him. :D

Thank you for sharing that. I understand the nervous anticipation. I fear this is the best chance America will have in our lifetime. Everything is on the line.
A few things keep me hopeful. First off is the fact that Ron Paul supporters are a rare breed. Some of the most motivated you will ever see in American politics. Not by their own accord but because they have come to understand the truth and the truth is a powerful thing.

I hear the pundits constantly joking about whether Paul supporters will get out the vote. Are you kidding me?
They stand on the street all day holding up signs or knocking on doors from dusk until dawn, empty their pocketbooks and worry tirelessly about our odds. Is showing up to the Caucus more difficult? Paul supporters are showing up come hell or high water.
An interesting statistic I came across.
If anyone had told you that the republican base was growing and the democratic base was shrinking would you have believed it?
Who do you think these people are joining the republican party for?
Not Giuliani, not McCain, not Romney or Mike Huckabee.
They're also not joining because they're all of a sudden pleased with the surge.
There is another possibility however. Of course this is just my theory. :)
We need 1/120 of the population to show up and vote for Ron Paul in Iowa and we can win this thing. Also I agree that Paul is going to shock in a big way in New Hampshire. The fact that everyone else is spread so evenly plays well into our hand.

Thanks again for that Synopsis. I'm reading everything I can to kill the time until the caucus.
Only 4,492,800 seconds to go. :D
 

Obsoleet

Platinum Member
Oct 2, 2007
2,181
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Interesting statistics. I've been a Republican for 7 years, but an unhappy Republican since about 2004. I'll be switching to an Independent, depending on what happens with RP.

I'm being slowly forced out of every political home, I can't find a fiscally conservative party. They both either want to increase the size of the government through one means or another. Neither seems to be a party of peace either and non-interventionism, which I believe in.

Surely there's room in our political system for a party of non-deficit spending and no war?
It's like this world is spinning completely out of control. Especially now that many Americans accept the idea of preemptive war. Most people are like 'gotcha' or 'yess i was right!' when playing politics, when I think about it I honesty get a heart-sinking feeling of disdain for the future of our world if we don't pull this election off.
I'm starting to wonder if Americans understand the concept of death being final at all.

If you wouldn't send yourself or your family to Iraq, you must be an anti-war supporter because there's nothing more important on the ballot than this issue of life and death.
Not healthcare, nor illegal immigration. It's pretty sickening, we even have people that think it's ok to nuke Iran or McCain's little ditty "bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran". Any honor that "man" had is now gone. So disgusting. Obama's little 'slip' wasn't any more impressive to anyone who understands we created our own bed in the mideast through interventionist policies and nationbuilding.

I digress because this is offtopic. But yes, I think this is why so many are motivated. This isn't politics, this is the fate of the world. Some people are really getting their kicks off the Democrat vs Republican thing though, go team. :thumbsdown:
 

Pabster

Lifer
Apr 15, 2001
16,986
1
0
Originally posted by: Obsoleet
I'm over it, I'm just fearful that because a few evangelicals promoting someone like Hickabee or pabster is representing Iowa here that we all look like a bunch of nut jobs.

I do not support Huckabee, and never have. I'm not a righteous evangelical nut, and I take issue with your painting. The brush is wrong.
 

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
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www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: Obsoleet
I feel I represent the average Iowa Republican myself when I say that I'd be a Democrat right now if they'd gotten us out of Iraq already. That would've demonstrated leadership to me. We can't follow if there's no one to lead.

Or... you could actually talk with Republicans here in Iowa and you'd find out you don't represent the "average Iowa Republican" when it comes to getting "out of Iraq". I know ZERO Republicans here who would be Democrats if they had "gotten us out of Iraq already". Yes, some don't like the fact that we are still there but it doesn't mean they'd compromise the rest of their ideals by switching to Dem.

The saddest part is the Republican base that seemingly refuses to do any real research of their own on the candidates, I feel alot of people are on autopilot that I speak with. Even with those people, they don't feel comfortable with what's going on.

Again, you could actually talk to Republicans instead of tossing out this sort of BS. I talk to many Iowa Republicans and this primary season has been very difficult for them because they ARE doing the research on the candidates. Sure, there will always be the autopilot followers but that can be said for any group. From what I've heard from people is that they are having a hard time picking a horse on the Republican side because we don't have a candidate that stands out as a leading Conservative. I know plenty of Huck supporters but about half those choose him because he's sounded better than that others. The rest are all scattered among the other candidates but usually it's based on a few issues they think are important and they seem to line up well with their pick.
So I guess what I'm saying here is - I don't know where you get off thinking there is some over-riding "autopilot" mode for the Republicans, especially when a good percentage are still undecided and most say they may still switch their support.

Oh wait - I get it. You're and RP supporter... not surprising in the least based on the comments...
 

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
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www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: Pabster
Originally posted by: Obsoleet
I'm over it, I'm just fearful that because a few evangelicals promoting someone like Hickabee or pabster is representing Iowa here that we all look like a bunch of nut jobs.

I do not support Huckabee, and never have. I'm not a righteous evangelical nut, and I take issue with your painting. The brush is wrong.

what the RP supporter is saying is he views you as extreme - not that you are a huckster. But yes, he's attempting to the paint Repubs in Iowa with a broad brush without actually knowing a whole lot.
 

HeXploiT

Diamond Member
Jun 11, 2004
4,359
1
76
Ever watch a movie where people are getting intimate and maybe you're watching with the wrong crowd of people so you cringe a little? That's how uncomfortable I felt reading this New Republic piece about Fred Thompson. :laugh:

skaloosa, Iowa--This is what a disaster looks like: Fred Thompson, the former future "savior" of the Republican Party, looking droopy-eyed and jowly in a black leather jacket and tan ten-gallon hat, wandering like some lonesome lost cowboy through the snows of southeastern Iowa in search of voters--and not finding many.

A few minutes earlier, the former U.S. Senator, "Law and Order" star, and would-be conservative hero had emerged from the Smokey Row coffeehouse, where, in his endless search for the only kind of media he can afford--free--he'd sat down with the local newspaper. Otherwise, Smokey Row held at most two dozen largely disinterested patrons. Thompson famously loathes the grip-and-grin side of politics and smiled wanly through his chit-chats. As he staged a handshake with one woman, the photographer had called out, "Look at each other!" Thompson couldn't resist mocking the artificiality of the forced smiling eye contact. "That's the hardest thing in the world to do," he chuckled.

At least someone cared enough to get her picture taken with him. Many of the folks in the quiet coffeehouse ignored Thompson, more interested in their laptops or newspapers than a presidential candidate. A pair of enthusiastic teenagers did approach him on his way out, however. "It's good to be a young man," the often depleted-looking actor-lobbyist told them wistfully. Yet the moment deflated when one of the teens confessed that he's not an Iowa resident.

Perhaps defensive about the wan crowd at the Smokey Row, Thompson's press secretary took care to note that this visit was an unannounced drop-by; nothing should be read into the head count. And in fairness, Thompson's visits like this one to small-town main streets are as much about local media buzz as they are about converting individual voters. Still, it seemed a poor use of the precious little time Thompson has left to salvage his campaign. Currently embarked on a 50-stop statewide bus tour--with the unwieldy moniker of "The Clear Conservative Choice: Hands Down!" emblazoned across the vehicle--Thompson has staked everything on finishing a strong third here in Iowa. (He's given up on New Hampshire entirely, and won't return there until after Iowa's January 3rd caucuses.) This past week, Thompson had to mount a tragic online fundraising appeal in which he begged supporters to help him scrape up the cash--$248,846, to be precise--that will allow him to buy one measly ad on the Iowa airwaves. A week earlier, by contrast, the flaky libertarian Ron Paul had raised $4 million in one day.

Thompson's (quite defensible) argument that he's the only Republican candidate who has been a consistent social and economic conservative hasn't budged him above 12 percent or so in the Iowa polls. That's good enough for fourth place at the moment. But John McCain is now making a late run here, and Paul is mounting a serious television advertising campaign. Finishing fourth--or possibly even fifth--might push Thompson out of the race (that some people think he's wanted to exit for many weeks now) long before he can reach his relative stronghold of South Carolina.



After leaving the coffeehouse, Thompson trudged his way through a snow-covered city park, as aides pointed out patches of snow and ice to prevent a symbolically catastrophic wipeout. He arrived at his next stop, at the town's county courthouse, on his feet, but couldn't summon much enthusiasm. Escorted by the county supervisor, Willie Van Weelden, Thompson popped into a series of dreary administrative offices staffed by a homogenous and somewhat befuddled-looking crew of middle-aged ladies. In the county tax office Thompson greeted precisely one worker. "This lady takes all the property tax money!" Van Wheelen exclaimed with the enthusiasm only a county worker could muster. "Is that right?" Thompson replied, sounding as impassive as he surely was. In the neighboring registrar's office, Thompson delivered a quick round of hellos and then cast a puzzled glance at a shaggy-haired boy scribbling at a table under a sign: "Drivers' Test In Progress." As if that were the final straw, Fred finally made a break for it back through the winter cold and into the warm comfort of his massive bus.

Jeri Thompson isn't with her husband in Iowa this week, but perhaps she should be; his much-discussed young wife has proven herself to be a more adept campaigner throughout the campaign. In a memorable moment at a fire station last week, Jeri charmingly donned a fire captain's helmet after Fred--perhaps fearing an embarrassing photo, but looking like a stick in the mud--refused to put one on. She also recently toured South Carolina on her own, and has blitzed conservative talk-radio shows, sometimes appearing on several in a day. It's enough to make some people wonder whether Fred Thompson's candidacy won't seem, in hindsight, like a platform for Jeri Thompson's future ambitions. (Although her instincts still aren't perfect: One Iowan recounted the way Jeri appeared wildly overdressed, in a beret and expensive dress, at a recent downscale political gathering.) Indeed, the more Thompson campaigns at low octane, the more plausible the theory that Jeri pushed him into running becomes. But why did he flop so badly once he did run? Where to start? He got in too late, didn't sound prepared, lacked the movie-star presence people expected, and suffered from staff turmoil (widely attributed to Jeri). Above all, Thompson never offered a clear rationale for his candidacy--a curious defect for a star contender, unless you consider what's become increasingly clear of late: On some level, the guy never really seemed to want it.

That much was obvious at a town hall forum later that day in nearby Ottumwa. At a time when other candidates are pulling in several hundred voters per stop, at most 75 voters turned out (albeit on a very snowy day) to hear him. Thompson put in a soporific performance made worse by an over-warm room and a noisy child in the audience. And echoing a moment famously recounted on the front page of the New York Times several weeks ago, Thompson had to coax enthusiasm out of his audience. Speaking of the distinction between legal and illegal immigration Thompson said, "We need to be a nation of high fences and wide gates." A man in the audience called out in agreement. "You like that?" Thompson asked hopefully. "Alright," he continued, looking for some momentum. "Can I get a round of applause?" A few long seconds later, the crowd obliged.

After Thompson spoke, his state chairman, the Iowa Congressman Steve King, bounded to the back of the room to greet voters. "How ya doin?" he eagerly asked one woman in her forties. "We're having a ball out here! Where is your head and where is your heart?"

The woman paused. "Probably Huckabee," she said apologetically. Meanwhile, Thompson shook only a quick batch of hands and disappeared from the room within about three minutes.

Out in the hallway stood three campaign workers holding clipboards. "Would you like to sign up to caucus for Fred?" they called to the departing voters. Few stopped.

"That's it. The room's empty," one worker reported back to the others. I could see the signup sheets from over their shoulders. One had two names recorded on it, another just a single name. The third was entirely empty. And so this is the way the savior's campaign ends--not with a bang, but with an empty signup sheet.

Michael Crowley is a senior editor for The New Republic.

Source: TheNewRepublic
 

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
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www.ShawCAD.com
Seems the media twisted things again.
An Account of Thompson's 'Desire' Question, From The Man Who Asked

Todd Chelf, the Iowa Republican who asked Fred Thompson the question about his desire to be president that launched this weekend's brouhaha, gave me his account of the question, the answer, and the aftermath.

After watching the blogs and media coverage of the question, I think the question and answer were taken out of context. From the start I want to make one thing clear, I do not nor have I ever thought Sen. Thompson is lazy. No one can accomplish in a lifetime what he has accomplished and be lazy. The question really came from months of frustrations. I started looking around for a candidate early because I really wanted to be a part of a campaign. Gov. Allen from Virginia was a possibility until his election meltdown. I looked at Gov. Huckabee early, but wrote him off as not being a viable candidate this time around. Shows you what I know. I also saw some of the big government ideas the Romney camp is now pointing out.


Speaking of Gov. Romney, I looked at him as well. Something about Gov. Romney just does not feel right. There is something about him I just do not trust. He is a little to slick. His image is a little too perfect. I could care less he is a Mormon. Frankly, I think the press made too big of an issue of his faith. I can only remember one person who mentioned his Mormon faith as being an issue. Most Iowa Republicans I spoke with about Romney were more concerned about his flip-flopping on the issues, than him being a Mormon bishop.

A high school friend of mine is a lobbyist in Washington D.C. During a phone call he mentioned Fred Thompson was thinking of running for President. I remember asking ?The guy from Law & Order?? I knew he had been a senator, but did not know much anything else about him. Then I started receiving emails from Lamar Alexander and his Volpac telling me he was trying to get his good friend Fred Thompson to run for president. I began to look at Sen. Thompson and his record. I got excited. Here was proven conservative with a proven track record. He was well known to people outside of the political geeks. Not mention the last time the Republicans nominated a proven conservative who was marginal actor we nominated one the greatest presidents of all time.

Then the waiting began. I was in the Ames area during the straw poll, but I did not go, because I was waiting for my candidate to get into the race. I rationalized his late entry the same way he did on Saturday, he was getting into the race when candidates use to get into the race. I kept telling my family and friends just wait until he gets into the race, it will be like a ground fire. Finally, he announced and then nothing. It was like running downstairs on Christmas morning, only to find underwear under the Christmas tree. The day arrived, but there was no excitement. To be honest, my interest waned.

A few months ago he came to Burlington. I arrived at the event site when the doors were to open and the place was packed. There was excitement. He walked into the room and spoke. He said what I wanted to hear. Finally here was my candidate. There was still something missing. He did not ask me to support him. He told me what he thought about the issues. He fielded questions from the audience. It did not feel like a campaign rally. It was more like a lecture from an outstanding political speaker. Then the questions really started to creep into my mind, does this man really want to be President? Is he running for President or Secretary of Homeland Security? We see that in Iowa. Candidates for ?president? are really running for some other office. I wanted to ask him that night do you want to be my president. I found myself wanting to support Sen. Thompson, but not knowing if he wanted me to support him.

I continued to look at all the candidates, but I kept coming back to Sen. Thompson. I wanted the chance to hear him talk again and Saturday was my chance. My friend from D.C. was visiting town so we went together to hear Sen. Thompson. The room and crowd were smaller this time. The only seats left were next to a woman I know through my work with the Boy Scouts. We waited for Sen. Thompson to arrive. Rep. King of Iowa introduced him. He walked into the room and sat down at the table with one of our local radio personalities. Again his answers were refreshing. Instead of sound bite after sound bite, he gave long thought out answers. He was advocating the ideas I wanted to hear. Then the question and answer session arrived. I wanted to know does this man want to be my President? I got the last question in.

The answer was exactly what I hope it would. It was a great answer. At points during the answer I was ashamed I had asked the question. I knew the answer. Do I really want to support a candidate who lives to be President? Is that type of candidate really interested in serving the nation or serving his own self-interest? Sen. Thompson positioned himself as willing to serve, not for an enlarged ego, but out of a deep desire to serve his nation. He has desire to make our nation better for his children and grandchildren. Far from a slick Branson like presentation, he presented himself as a dedicated patriot willing to serve if we, the American people, were willing to have him do so. He refuses to be a President under false pretenses. He is not leading us into a shotgun relationship. He understands that under the founder?s concept of the social contract, both parties must be fully aware of the terms of the contract when entering into the agreement. If the American people do not want him to be President, he is not going to trick us into agreeing to him. As I said, the answer was refreshing. It was a great answer.

I went and saw Gov. Romney that night. Do not misunderstand me; if Gov. Romney is the Republican nominee for President, I will support him. His presentation was an event. His hair and teeth were perfect. He smiled. He pressed the flesh. His wife glowed as she stood next to him. Make no mistake; Gov. Romney wants to be President of the United States. Maybe that is why I do not trust him. In the end, Sen. Thompson was right, the next President should be someone who wants to serve the nation, not someone who wants to be President. Far from the press coverage that stated Sen. Thompson does not have the desire to be President, his desire is to serve the American people. He believes the best way to do that is to be President. If he is not elected President, he will not be disappointed. He will find some other way to serve the American people, just like he has throughout his career. After listening to Sen. Thompson and thinking about what he said, I can only conclude he is the best candidate for the job.

Now if I was an RP type nut I'd start ranting about conspiracies and the like... ;) But I'm not like them and frankly I was hoping for more out of Fred but maybe I and others unfairly expected Fred to be the second coming of Reagan.
 

Obsoleet

Platinum Member
Oct 2, 2007
2,181
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Originally posted by: Pabster
Originally posted by: Obsoleet
I'm over it, I'm just fearful that because a few evangelicals promoting someone like Hickabee or pabster is representing Iowa here that we all look like a bunch of nut jobs.

I do not support Huckabee, and never have. I'm not a righteous evangelical nut, and I take issue with your painting. The brush is wrong.

Or the canvas is something out of the twilight zone?



Theres 6 other guys other than Ron in the Republican primary. I'm glad you guys are going to eat each other up in the caucus.
Got so many pro-war choices, you love it. That's ok by me. ;)

Too bad Ron Paul is more conservative than any of those chumps. The cross-dresser, the flipflopping liberal, the reverend who can out-tax Bill Clinton, the lawyer who looks like he's going to die... need I go on.

There's a difference between a normal person who is capable of not constantly towing party line, and a "Republican" like you fellas. Some of us are trying to do the right thing in the world, rather than refusing to admit the administration is wrong on everything and we need to correct his critical mistake that's costing lives.. you tools are interested in winning this week's online debate.
Frankly, I don't care. You win.

When I say the average Republican in Iowa, I'm talking about ones that don't go around spewing demagoguery online about how great the war is going. Viva la surge! Lot to celebrate there, if you're Osama or Torquemada. Or as long as you're not disabled or dead, or lost a child to that fate.

I was just as pro-Bush as you guys are... (till he started doing things). Time is up for the guys who hijacked the party, I'm sorry to hear there are a few of the staunch/bullheaded Republican neocons still running around posting that garbage about DubyaMDs, spreading democracy and whatever else you're preaching today.
I guess for Hickabee that's Christianity.. I think everyone's at least heard of Jesus by now and we can probably give it a break as it concerns elections huh?

What's sad is that the Republican party is becoming a smaller tent (like all dying insitutions it's becoming more isolationist and intolerant), while the Barry Goldwater Republican tent is huge right now under Ron Paul and growing. That's good politics for your party, I'm sure that was in Rove's last scheme before he surrendered.

The truth about Iowa is, for others reading this, that most people when presented with the information, are very reasonable and sound, they are capable of evolving. You guys know the info, but are taking the head in the sand approach. This is why you have 6 similarly ridiculous candidates. No one knows what to do, because Republicans don't want to admit to a massive mistake. The best you can do now is sustain that mistake and hope you get a miracle. It's a shame God isn't on the side of those who propagate war and death. :( Or you might get one.

I'm sure you want to save face with this Iraq debacle. So do I, sooner rather than later (ie when the Chinese quit paying for it and we come home getting our a$$'s handed to us by 3rd world terrorists). That's actually optimistic, more likely is that powerkeg blows up right in our face.

One is from the DSM area, you wouldnt preach in Ankeny on this pro-war nonsense for 2 seconds. No one wants to hear that garbage and you know it. Same with the guy from Waterloo. Running off the head about how great the war is going and Bush is likely to get your head smacked off by the large UAW membership in that town.
You'd both be ashamed to run around telling strangers the merits of your war.

As I'm sure the forum can imagine, these guys are not for real with this stuff in person.. do you know how ridiculous it would sound to the thinking man?
When I talk to Iowa Republicans, and tell them that my view is that I don't believe we can successfully spread our way of life at the end of a gun... and that if we're wrong it's coming to an end anyway because we are broke... people agree!
They don't sit there in refute unless they are in the minority like these so-called Iowa "Republicans" posting here.
We are sane in Iowa. We have our sheep as well though.

It's logical and makes sense to people who are already in crisis mode over government spending.. but somehow I believe forum-goers are more likely to take my account (as it makes actual sense) rather than the testament of your small cadre of Republican bedfellows.

It's sad. Because people are dying, and if you don't care by this point to do the right thing for your country and the world, you're complicit in it.
 

nageov3t

Lifer
Feb 18, 2004
42,808
83
91
we'll find out tomorrow, at least.

I'm just looking forward to Iowa being over and the real election beginning.

my prediction -- and we'll see if I'm right on this tomorrow -- is a 3-way tie on the democrat side (obama/hill/edwards, in that order, but none having a significant majority), and Huckabee taking the Republican delegates with Romney within 5-7 points of him (with McCain, Rudy, and Paul rounding out the top 5, in no particular order).
 

HeXploiT

Diamond Member
Jun 11, 2004
4,359
1
76
From The New Republic-

Young and in Love by Eve Fairbanks
The congressman from Texas has the race's best batch of student volunteers.
Post Date Wednesday, January 02, 2008

I get to Ron Paul's headquarters in Des Moines just as an army of student volunteers is surging out of the doors, yelling and clutching signs. "This is the herd we can't contain!" one staffer laughs. ABC's Jake Tapper is taping a live segment in front of Mike Huckabee's neighboring headquarters, and it's time to make some mischief. The volunteers conform to a Washington reporter's expectations about Ron Paul youth--almost all boys, rowdy, eager to disrupt--until they don't.

The ABC guys are clearly charmed by the volunteers' enthusiasm, but they're also worried the kids will mess up the sound for the shot. As soon as the thirty or so volunteers figure this out, they politely troop back across Locust Street, gather in a neat clump on the corner, and fall silent. When Paul fans driving by honk at the crowd, this doesn't elicit a single happy "Woo!" from the now eerily well-behaved volunteers while the cameras are rolling. "McCain wants Huckabee to beat Romney, Huckabee wants McCain to beat Romney ... David?" Tapper is saying into the lens. Behind him, dozens of Ron Paul signs bob furiously and silently, giving the scene from the camera's perspective a ridiculous quality; I imagine it's something like watching a naval reporter talk about the positioning of two warships off-screen while, in the water behind him, dozens of frantic but polite shipwreck victims try to get the world's attention without shouting.

These volunteers' whole idea is to get the world's attention without shouting. They're the closest thing this race has to the Deaniacs of '04: Hundreds of young volunteers, who have traveled to Iowa on their own dime to knock on doors and make pleading phone calls. But where the Deaniacs got a reputation for being revved-up and angry, the Paul guys are pacific. At Paul's headquarters, they hesitate to bash other candidates, even when I goad them. They are unfailingly courteous, holding doors and always referring to their candidate as "Dr. Paul." They pepper me with curious questions. ("Are the police in Washington D.C. under federal or local authority?") After the taping, when the ABC cameraman observes to nobody in particular that "they remind me of Howard Dean's people," several of the volunteers urge him, "Don't say that!" as much to dissociate themselves from the Dean people's wildness as from Dean himself. "I know you meant it as a compliment," one especially young-looking volunteer in a pageboy cap reassures the cameraman, gently.



Paul's youth volunteer project, called "Ron Paul's Christmas Vacation" to entice students, was the brainchild of National Youth Coordinator Jeff Frazee, a low-key, twenty-four year old Texas A&M grad whose swept blond hairdo makes him look more likely to pull out a skateboard than your typical campaign functionary. After getting themselves to Iowa, the students are given free bunks in one of seven camps spread over the state--the Boone location, at a YMCA camp near Des Moines, has 70 Paulites; the Floyd camp, in the north, has 25; Cedar Rapids, 50; etc--as well as cereal breakfasts, a $50 American Express debit card to buy lunches, and simple dinner catered by the Hy-Vee supermarket.

The volunteers posted at the Boone camp are the elect. They get to ride to and from camp in a red school bus called the "Constitution Coach," whose donor, a die-hard supporter, pre-decorated the sides with what look like the lyrics to a minstrel ballad to Ron Paul: "He is called Dr. No ... No U.N. No ICC." A special mix CD plays on the bus, with Ron Paul country, Ron Paul rap, even a take-off of Frank Sinatra's "New York, New York" called "Ron Paul, Ron Paul." "Some of it is dumb, but the rap is the best," says Brittney Lowry, an accounting major from the University of Houston whose trip out here with her new husband, Adam Weibling, constitutes "kind of a honeymoon."

I follow the Constitution Coach out to the Boone camp for purposes of seeing what the Ron Paul youth are like when they're not putting on a show for Jake Tapper. I don't know what I was expecting. Or I do, but I'm embarrassed to say it now that I saw the reality of the Ron Paul youth camps. Let's just say that alcohol and all controlled substances are strictly prohibited for the entirety of Ron Paul's Christmas Vacation. "I tell them the party is January 3," says Frazee. To amuse themselves after an evening of phone-banking, they play Scrabble and Yahtzee.

Working the phones, the Boone volunteers have been assigned a list of independents. This means people who can be marked down as "YCs"--"Yes Caucus"--are few and far between, but they don't seem at all worried or discouraged. Obama supporters are the easiest to "convert," they report. They're especially proud of the "mobile phone bank" they're using, a fleet of 225 go-phones purchased for the amazing deal of $50 each, 1,000 free minutes included. Despite Paul's sudden richesse--he's expected to have raised the most money of any GOP candidate in the fourth quarter--deals are very important to the Paul guys. Somebody at the camp calculated that riding the Constitution Coach rather than in cars is saving them $4,000 in gas. "Ron Paul runs his campaign like he might run his administration," an Arkansan named Nickel, who drives the coach, explains.

Actually, if the candidates were judged by the quality of their young supporters, I would now be voting for Ron Paul. Beyond just being polite, the Paul volunteers have an incredible passion for the technical mechanics of the American constitution and body of laws. As I spend time with them, I start to think: I wouldn't want a repairman working on my car who didn't know how it was put together, so why not the same with people who work on my government? (Assuming, that is, that the Paul adults mirror the Paul youth.)

Also, scrambling my assumption that his volunteers would all be computer geeks, most are history or economics majors. One kid, whose computer has apparently broken, walks through the room yelling, "Is anybody a computer science person here?" Nobody speaks up. Not that they're not geeks. Take this one typical conversation from my night at the Boone camp:

MATTHEW TREVATHAN, WITTENBERG UNIVERSITY, HISTORY MAJOR: McCain's comment about [how Paul's brand of isolationism got us into] World War II set me off! I think I'm going to write my senior thesis about it. Nobody understands why we got into World War II.

DAN SELSAM, WESLEYAN, HISTORY MAJOR: I want to write my thesis on Dr. Paul, too.

JOE HILLS, VANDERBILT, AMERICAN HISTORY MAJOR: I feel like it's because nobody understands World War I properly. I want to write a serious graphic history of World War I.

ELI SENTMAN, HIGH SCHOOL STUDENT: I would buy that.

BRITTNEY LOWERY, UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON, ACCOUNTING MAJOR [INTERRUPTING]: Hey guys, it's gone up to 18,983,543 and 66 cents!

"It" is Ron Paul's astonishing fourth-quarter fundraising total. The number updates automatically. When I first got to the camp, I thought everybody was following sports scores on their laptops. They were actually watching the fundraising number reload.



There's something that seems a little tragic about the Paul volunteers' devotion--they're spending their Christmas vacation in chilly cabins, eating Velveeta potatoes for a week, and their candidate doesn't arrive in Iowa until the day before the caucus--until I see that it's not really about Paul. They almost never mention his biography or his leadership style when talking about their movement, a startling contrast with rival campaigns like Huckabee's or Obama's. I ask Eli, the student who would have bought Joe's graphic history of World War I, whether he thinks Ron Paul has charisma. Eli pauses. "He's so nice," he replies. "He reminds me of your grandpa--your righteous grandpa." A volunteer named Eddie in a tidy checked Oxford shirt says, "He did a rally with us the first night and shook everybody's hand. It was cute."

"I like his aloofness, to be honest," observes Matthew, the World War II buff.

It's not about personality worship for the volunteers, the fetishization of a person's capacity to shine in public or persuade. It's about questions like the purpose of our Federal Reserve, which really piques these volunteers' interest, and which just so happens to get a Texas congressman named Ron Paul going, too. When Nickel muses, "I think centrists are the most extremist, because they don't believe in anything but people," it suddenly seems to make a lot of sense.

In the hands of the volunteers, I'm becoming a Ron Paul convert, and I have to get out. On the way to my car, I take a peek into one of the cabins. There are 17 bunks crammed on the lower floor, boys' stuff scattered everywhere. Posted on the door is the only sign of raucousness I've seen the whole night: a Hillary brochure with little Hitler mustaches doodled onto her pictures. As I examine it, a burst of laughter comes from the cabin's second level. Suddenly it occurs to me: Did I get stuck with the earnest ones over in the main hall, and this is where the wild, blow-up-the-establishment Ron Paul people are?

A few people are shouting at once, and I can't make out what they're talking about. Girls? Nasty gossip about Mitt Romney? Then a phrase rises above the jumble. "That's why the French had mercenaries!"

They're debating the comparative merits of how governments throughout history have spent their revenue.

Eve Fairbanks is an associate editor for The New Republic.

Source:TNR

 

Farang

Lifer
Jul 7, 2003
10,913
3
0
Unless there are surprises as far as second-tier candidates making a strong showing (say, Dodd or Paul coming from behind), the vote in Iowa will have little influence. People realize its just fucking Iowa and the muddled field will continue to be muddled afterwards, with 'But I won Iowa!' falling on deaf ears in the next states.
 

Obsoleet

Platinum Member
Oct 2, 2007
2,181
1
0
Originally posted by: loki8481
my prediction -- and we'll see if I'm right on this tomorrow -- is a 3-way tie on the democrat side (obama/hill/edwards, in that order, but none having a significant majority), and Huckabee taking the Republican delegates with Romney within 5-7 points of him (with McCain, Rudy, and Paul rounding out the top 5, in no particular order).

That's the pretty standard bet most people are calling out. Everyone knows Huck/Mitt will push out a lot of support, the wildcard I think most people are interested in seeing is if the people show for Dr. Paul.
We've got a good number of chickenhawks, but it might be quite the surprise. I hope so, if not I think NH is the spot.

I personally have about 20 people dedicated to my precinct, how many others show up on their own accord I don't know. I'm not sure the other precincts are covered as well as mine is either. It's suspected 10 to each precinct in the state takes 3rd.
 

Obsoleet

Platinum Member
Oct 2, 2007
2,181
1
0
Originally posted by: Farang
Unless there are surprises as far as second-tier candidates making a strong showing (say, Dodd or Paul coming from behind), the vote in Iowa will have little influence. People realize its just fucking Iowa and the muddled field will continue to be muddled afterwards, with 'But I won Iowa!' falling on deaf ears in the next states.

Because Huckabee winning the Iowa Straw Poll had no effect on his candidacy? You need to learn about the factors that play into the election process. NH voters are very influenced by the Iowa vote.

To discount the early primaries is short sighted.
 

Obsoleet

Platinum Member
Oct 2, 2007
2,181
1
0
Originally posted by: Perry404
Ever watch a movie where people are getting intimate and maybe you're watching with the wrong crowd of people so you cringe a little? That's how uncomfortable I felt reading this New Republic piece about Fred Thompson. :laugh:

skaloosa, Iowa--This is what a disaster looks like: Fred Thompson, <snip>

That was actually pretty sad. None of these guys are saying anything that really stands out is the problem. Status quo isnt most peoples cup of tea anymore.

Basically Thompson says, "if you want me to, I'll serve you as yet another lame duck President."

Heck, I'm sure there's lots of people who are also unwilling to put out the effort to succeed, but can just as easily remark "well, the resume sucks and I'm lazy.. but if you want me I'll take the job."
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,549
1,130
126
What's sad is that the Republican party is becoming a smaller tent (like all dying insitutions it's becoming more isolationist and intolerant), while the Barry Goldwater Republican tent is huge right now under Ron Paul and growing. That's good politics for your party, I'm sure that was in Rove's last scheme before he surrendered.

Paul is leading where Barry Goldwater left off?

Hahahahaha... Hahahahahahaha...

Talk about revisionist history. Study up on Barry Goldwater before you spout such nonsense.

Ron Paul and Barry Goldwater couldnt be any different.

Goldwater was a SOCIAL LIBERAL. Something Ron Paul is not.
Goldwater was a FISCAL CONSERVATIVE.
Goldwater was the BIGGEST HAWK AROUND. Something Ron Paul is not.
Goldwater was well respected by his colleagues and considered a GOP Party leader. Something Ron Paul is not. Ron Paul is a virtual outcast amongst his own party in Congress.
Goldwater polled well nationally for the republican nomination. Something Ron Paul has not done.
Goldwater has a long and distinguished political career where he got stuff done. The same cannot be said for Ron Paul. Hes the anti-thesis of Barry Goldwater when it comes to getting stuff done.
 

Obsoleet

Platinum Member
Oct 2, 2007
2,181
1
0
?

Ron Paul isn't against war, he's against senseless self-defeating wars. Barry Goldwater is considered a Don of the libertarian Republican wing. Barry G would smack GWB and his whole crew all over DC. Back then, it was the Cold War, different times completely from our purposeless nationbuilding of today. I think it's misguided to assume Ron Paul= pacifist and I think you might need to read up on what he's saying exactly. Goldwater/Reagan/Paul all originated in the same vein of political views. Barry Goldwater Jr. endorsed Ron Paul for a reason ;)

Originally posted by: Wreckem
Goldwater was the BIGGEST HAWK AROUND. Something Ron Paul is not.
Goldwater was well respected by his colleagues and considered a GOP Party leader. Something Ron Paul is not. Ron Paul is a virtual outcast amongst his own party in Congress.
Goldwater polled well nationally for the republican nomination. Something Ron Paul has not done.
Goldwater has a long and distinguished political career where he got stuff done. The same cannot be said for Ron Paul. Hes the anti-thesis of Barry Goldwater when it comes to getting stuff done.

Again, totally different Republican party, and totally different times.. you're comparing the men like a kindergartner, taking no other factors into account at all. I can see with this view why you act so shocked but come on man.
I seriously would love to debate you on this one. PM me and I'll be more than happy to spend the time because I think you're misguided on the changes and developments internal to the Republican party.
If you don't think BG would be estatic about Ron Paul.. well, you must be ignoring the fact his heir apparant son endorsed him.
I think a lot of you are in for a shock on the ferocity behind the politics that Ron Paul represents, alot of the old BGW Republicans support Ron Paul.

That said, I think this thread has muddied enough without going into this indepth. I have a bad habit for derailing topics and apparantly lots of others don't mind either. :p
 

Pabster

Lifer
Apr 15, 2001
16,986
1
0
Originally posted by: Obsoleet
Too bad Ron Paul is more conservative than any of those chumps.

Wrong, again.

The ACU (not to be confused with the ACLU) rates Fred Thompson higher than Ron Paul, or any of the other Republicans. He has a lifetime rating of 88. Paul comes in at 86. Not a huge difference, but a difference nonetheless. (Both far higher than any of the other Republican candidates. Romney is around a 55 or so IIRC).

Same with the guy from Waterloo. Running off the head about how great the war is going and Bush is likely to get your head smacked off by the large UAW membership in that town.

Unions are part of the problem, not the solution. The UAW can kiss my ass.

You'd both be ashamed to run around telling strangers the merits of your war.

No, I'm not ashamed. I do it all the time. Stick around... :laugh:
 

Farang

Lifer
Jul 7, 2003
10,913
3
0
Originally posted by: Obsoleet
Originally posted by: Farang
Unless there are surprises as far as second-tier candidates making a strong showing (say, Dodd or Paul coming from behind), the vote in Iowa will have little influence. People realize its just fucking Iowa and the muddled field will continue to be muddled afterwards, with 'But I won Iowa!' falling on deaf ears in the next states.

Because Huckabee winning the Iowa Straw Poll had no effect on his candidacy? You need to learn about the factors that play into the election process. NH voters are very influenced by the Iowa vote.

To discount the early primaries is short sighted.

Huckabee's general upward trend in Iowa polls, including the straw poll, had an effect on his candidacy. The hype of the caucuses put this trend in the news, which led to his surge nationally. However, the hype of the caucuses is different from the effect of the caucus results themselves. My argument is that Iowa polling makes a difference but after the actual vote, in which nobody will be a clear winner, Iowa voting will have little effect. The focus will shift to New Hampshire where--in the muddled results of Iowa--the latest polls from NH will be more influential than the caucus results. This trend will continue until one candidate dominates a single state's race, which won't happen until Super Tuesday (which, even if it isn't a dominating performance, will be definitive).

You're arguing that the effect of Iowa polling has a strong influence on the election, when my argument was that the Iowa caucus will have little effect on the election. You've missed your target.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
0
I have to love the Pabster delusion---Unions are part of the problem, not the solution. The UAW can kiss my ass.

Then Pabster understands nothing about the rise and fall of labor unions. The point is that unions were created to keep labor from being screwed and the movement lost steam when their ideas got mainstreamed. Now the Republirats are screwing labor again so the unions will once again rise to prevent labor from being screwed.

Maybe Pabster with his whole one vote thinks the Unions will kiss his ass but he will discover organized voting will kick his ass as they bury him in votes.

Bottom line, people vote their pocketbooks, and all the republirat slogans in the world won't change then fact that we are losing the wars and once the national credit card debt the republicans are bribing the people with runs out, the economy will tank.

At least spidey was honest enough to admit he was voting republican because it benefited him. The point being, for everyone one that gains, about ten lose.
 

randym431

Golden Member
Jun 4, 2003
1,270
1
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Well kids.... reporting from iOwa here. And here?s the scoop.

First of all, the caucus system, along with the electoral college system should be put on a space shuttle and sent far into deep space. And good riddens.

I hear Frank Luntz will be on all day showing us who's winning.

Well... "all day"???? The caucus doesn?t even start until 6:30 pm. Just another example how LAME they are...

Caucus? What about those poor night workers??? Or those Wal-mart night workers manning the registers? They wont be able to take part.
Talk about a LAME unjust system...

Or those folks that wouldn?t even spend 5 minutes out of their day at a voting mach. You REALLY expect people to spend 2 hours at some neighbors living room to "caucus"???
The same neighbor that called the police on you for your dog getting in their flowers last Summer. Or the SAME neighbors with the awful kids that run the streets 24/7, and you call the cops on.
So THESE people are going to unite in a love fest like setting to "caucus"....hehehehe

People who watch Fox or read bi-coastal newspapers?

I think you mean to say "BI POLAR NEWS PAPER"...

The caucus system, especially in iOwa is and always has been the joke of jokes.
ONLY those that "pray" for their 15 minutes of fame will even spend $10 in iOwa.
Those wanta-be's and Hillary (with all the $$$ in the world) that is.

I have GREAT respect for Giuliani and McCain, At least they are realistic and decided to skip iOwa altogether. Now THAT is worth some attention and expression of true "leadership".

So.... Thursday will come and go. Some no chance in hell smuck will get their 15 minutes of fame, all over the news shows the next morning. THEN, everyone will move on to the "REAL" states with REAL voting from 7am to 9pm in a voting booth.

And in 3 months people will look back and ask Huckibee who??? Mitt who??? iOwa? What the hell was THAT all about ????

And there you have it, from a state that still "caucus", and no one even knows why???? :roll:
 

First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,518
271
136
Shockingly, Iraq is still the most important issue to both D and R voters according to the latest polls. Too bad for the neocons.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
0
Originally posted by: Evan Lieb
Shockingly, Iraq is still the most important issue to both D and R voters according to the latest polls. Too bad for the neocons.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sadly, the votes on the war or an accurate assessment of voter antiwar strength will be largely missing in action until the general election if even then.

Unless Ron Paul can win, the Republicans are all pro war and will quietly run on being smarter than GWB. And the democrats will run on an end the war platform without committing themselves on how they will get out. And at least in the primary process we compare democrats to democrats and republicans to republicans without comparing raw numbers of republicans to raw numbers of democrats.

And by the time 1/20/2009 comes around, who knows what GWB will have done to really screwed things up more.

The point being, GWB knew enough to screw things up, now someone else must fix things up enough so things don't totally collapse when we leave.

And since the needed fix is probably going to require international co operation and diplomacy, that requires unknowable diplomatic results that no one can honestly promise.
And given GWB's lame duck status and the deep divisions in this Country, its now nearly too late for GWB&co. to pursue any diplomatic options. As if GWB&co. was ever willing to explore diplomatic options anyway when he had the time and the congressional majority.

The GWB war strategy seems to have gone 100% into a keep the lid on with me as the decider until I can sneak out of office mode rather than any future fix anything to make it easier for my successor mode. And just 384 more days left to go according to my backward Bush wrist watch.
 

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
76
www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: Obsoleet
When I say the average Republican in Iowa, I'm talking about ones that don't go around spewing demagoguery online about how great the war is going. Viva la surge! Lot to celebrate there, if you're Osama or Torquemada. Or as long as you're not disabled or dead, or lost a child to that fate.

Uhh again - you might actually talk to some Iowa Republicans instead of make shit up. Only one(of many) Republican I know and talk to are as you describe. So yeah, pull your head out and wake up to the fact that there are people on all sides who are "extreme". What's funny IMO is how "extreme" you RP nuts have become.
was just as pro-Bush as you guys are... (till he started doing things). Time is up for the guys who hijacked the party, I'm sorry to hear there are a few of the staunch/bullheaded Republican neocons still running around posting that garbage about DubyaMDs, spreading democracy and whatever else you're preaching today.
I guess for Hickabee that's Christianity.. I think everyone's at least heard of Jesus by now and we can probably give it a break as it concerns elections huh?
I think this makes my point for me - you are as "extreme" as those you wish to vilify. Tossing around neocon and calling others silly names while trying to deride them. Very nice. And yet here you are whining about the bigness of the tent. Well, maybe if you weren't so extreme you wouldn't feel so ackward.;) BTW, there is nothing wrong with candidates expressing their faith.
 

ScottMac

Moderator<br>Networking<br>Elite member
Mar 19, 2001
5,471
2
0
Prediction: The thin margin of victory amongst the three top Dems. Issues in contention drive it up to the Iowa Supreme Court and the residents are forced to re-caucus, re-re-caucus, and re-re-re-caucus ... with the final tally resulting in a statistical three-way tie with HRC winning by two votes. The results will be announced December 3, 2008.