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The Idea of Hordes of "Never Joe" Bernie Bros Not Supported By Two Recent Polls

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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
66,627
14,102
136
The Polls will change once more start seeing Biden and his issues.
The polls will almost certainly get closer as more people start paying attention to the election and partisanship reasserts itself but the election will be a referendum on Trump, not Biden.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
25,142
4,648
126
Those barely scratch the surface and, especially EC, are not going to be solved anytime soon.
Your claim was not that the changes we need will or will not be changed soon. Your claim was that Biden Democrats think the system is fine. I gave you two examples showing that they do not think it is fine.

Also, how does "getting money out of politics" barely scratch the surface? What changes to the system would be more effective than that?
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
66,608
2,265
126
The polls will almost certainly get closer as more people start paying attention to the election and partisanship reasserts itself but the election will be a referendum on Trump, not Biden.
Incorrect. That's what you want, but that's not what will happen. Biden's decline is going to be a huge issue.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
66,627
14,102
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Biden's issues are going to sink his support.
That's not relevant to your claim though, you said independents need to be inspired and Bernie could do it better than Biden. So, they just had a whole bunch of elections and Biden beat Bernie among independents. If they need to be inspired then why didn't they need to be inspired here?
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
26,446
5,874
136
Your claim was not that the changes we need will or will not be changed soon. Your claim was that Biden Democrats think the system is fine. I gave you two examples showing that they do not think it is fine.

Also, how does "getting money out of politics" barely scratch the surface? What changes to the system would be more effective than that?
I’m pretty sure he is just trolling at this point. Not even American Bernie supporters are this adamant about Bernie at this point.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
66,627
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Incorrect. That's what you want, but that's not what will happen. Biden's decline is going to be a huge issue.
It's certainly true that Trump and his campaign are going to try and make it a huge issue and due to his command of media attention will probably be reasonably successful. Doesn't change the fact that this is going to be a referendum on Trump. All re-elections are.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
66,608
2,265
126
I’m pretty sure he is just trolling at this point. Not even American Bernie supporters are this adamant about Bernie at this point.
Not trolling, just amazed that people are coalescing behind what will be failure. It's Kerry vs Bush again, except Kerry's flaws were that Bush was a "War President".
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
66,627
14,102
136
Not trolling, just amazed that people are coalescing behind what will be failure. It's Kerry vs Bush again, except Kerry's flaws were that Bush was a "War President".
Kerry slightly outperformed the fundamentals in 2004, meaning he was a better than average candidate.

 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
66,608
2,265
126
It's certainly true that Trump and his campaign are going to try and make it a huge issue and due to his command of media attention will probably be reasonably successful. Doesn't change the fact that this is going to be a referendum on Trump. All re-elections are.
It would be, if the presumptive Democratic Candidate didn't have his own glaring flaw.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
66,608
2,265
126
Kerry slightly outperformed the fundamentals in 2004, meaning he was a better than average candidate.

Yet he lost. Biden isn't even that. The whole premise of Biden winning is that Trump is Bad. As we have seen since the end of the Impeachment, Trump's Badness is not universally shared and is quite transient. If this were 2016 Biden, he might have a chance, but it's not.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
26,446
5,874
136
Not trolling, just amazed that people are coalescing behind what will be failure. It's Kerry vs Bush again, except Kerry's flaws were that Bush was a "War President".
Kerry lost because he was boring and had no personality. Biden doesn’t have that issue. Also the scale of bush’s failure wasn’t quite known during the 2004 election.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
66,627
14,102
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Yet he lost. Biden isn't even that. The whole premise of Biden winning is that Trump is Bad. As we have seen since the end of the Impeachment, Trump's Badness is not universally shared and is quite transient. If this were 2016 Biden, he might have a chance, but it's not.
Trump's badness is not transient at all, if anything his unpopularity is the most stable in the history of polling. Seriously not only is what you're saying wrong, it's the polar opposite of reality.

Anyways, I certainly couldn't guarantee that Biden will win, unlike how you're guaranteeing he will lose. I find it foolish to put such certainty on something when if anything, the data indicates he will more likely than not win.

If you really are this certain though then you stand to make a handsome profit in the betting markets. I hope you're taking advantage of the opportunity.
 

VRAMdemon

Diamond Member
Aug 16, 2012
3,606
2,290
136
Not trolling, just amazed that people are coalescing behind what will be failure. It's Kerry vs Bush again, except Kerry's flaws were that Bush was a "War President".
And, your coalescing around a fantasy that Bernie, the guy who couldn't beat Biden, could beat Trump. I suggest you come down from Canada to here in FLA or any other state in the south or midwest and see how popular Bernie is, and how he's been smeared out of existence. You not making any sense.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
66,608
2,265
126
Trump's badness is not transient at all, if anything his unpopularity is the most stable in the history of polling. Seriously not only is what you're saying wrong, it's the polar opposite of reality.

Anyways, I certainly couldn't guarantee that Biden will win, unlike how you're guaranteeing he will lose. I find it foolish to put such certainty on something when if anything, the data indicates he will more likely than not win.

If you really are this certain though then you stand to make a handsome profit in the betting markets. I hope you're taking advantage of the opportunity.
Biden and the Democrats are relying on Outrage to Win. Poll people and they will say trump is Bad, that's easy. Are they Outraged enough to Vote against him? That's not going to be enough. You still need to get people to the Polls to Win, all Trump has to do is not piss people off for a few weeks. That's why you Need an Inspiring Candidate and not just a name on the Ballot.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
66,627
14,102
136
Biden and the Democrats are relying on Outrage to Win. Poll people and they will say trump is Bad, that's easy. Are they Outraged enough to Vote against him? That's not going to be enough. You still need to get people to the Polls to Win, all Trump has to do is not piss people off for a few weeks. That's why you Need an Inspiring Candidate and not just a name on the Ballot.
Democrats scored a resounding victory in 2018 without an inspiring candidate on the ballot and it wasn't due to differential turnout. Turnout was at presidential election levels for BOTH parties and they crushed the GOP. Why? Because it was a referendum on Trump.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
66,608
2,265
126
And, your coalescing around a fantasy that Bernie, the guy who couldn't beat Biden, could beat Trump. I suggest you come down from Canada to here in FLA or any other state in the south or midwest and see how popular Bernie is, and how he's been smeared out of existence. You not making any sense.
Bernie is being beaten by 15% of the Electorate who are 50+ years of Age. That Demographic has bought into the "Electibility" nonsense. However, if Bernie was the Democratic nominee, they would vote for him, because they also are Outraged by Trump.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
66,627
14,102
136
Bernie is being beaten by 15% of the Electorate who are 50+ years of Age. That Demographic has bought into the "Electibility" nonsense. However, if Bernie was the Democratic nominee, they would vote for him, because they also are Outraged by Trump.
If your argument were true then Biden's lead over Bernie would be smaller when you consider the entire electorate. Instead, it is larger. The opposite of what you're saying is true, Biden brings in independents that Sanders can't.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
66,608
2,265
126
Democrats scored a resounding victory in 2018 without an inspiring candidate on the ballot and it wasn't due to differential turnout. Turnout was at presidential election levels for BOTH parties and they crushed the GOP. Why? Because it was a referendum on Trump.
A lot has changed since then. The Democrats had a lot of new more Inspiring Candidates that gained National attention, like AOC and even Beto O'Rourke.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
66,608
2,265
126
If your argument were true then Biden's lead over Bernie would be smaller when you consider the entire electorate. Instead, it is larger. The opposite of what you're saying is true, Biden brings in independents that Sanders can't.
Biden brings in the 50+ demographic.

edit - anyway, I grow tired of this, maybe some other day.
 
Last edited:

VRAMdemon

Diamond Member
Aug 16, 2012
3,606
2,290
136
Bernie is being beaten by 15% of the Electorate who are 50+ years of Age. That Demographic has bought into the "Electibility" nonsense. However, if Bernie was the Democratic nominee, they would vote for him, because they also are Outraged by Trump.
So..The same Americans who are outraged by Trump won't vote for Biden, but will vote for Bernie - The guy whom the public has been, and WILL BE gaslit to believe he's the second coming of Lenin, and of whom the majority of voters don't think he has a chance in hell of any of his policy positions getting through congress and are scared shitless that he's going to tear every thing down and they will lose all those wonderful healthcare plans and have the stock market and thier 401ks destroyed. I know your in the Great White North. But, this is the sad reality down here on the ground in America. The American public is fed bullshit, and they are all but happy to dig in without utensils and a napkin.
 

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,631
1,510
126
Bernie has a fighting chance because he doesn't have the Cognitive issues Biden is developing. On top of that, he has an inspiring message that even before this crisis has widespread support amongst the US Electorate. With this crisis those ideas have come front and centre as immediate solutions.
I think he might be engaging in motivated reasoning.
 

Thump553

Lifer
Jun 2, 2000
11,332
704
126
Biden brings in the 50+ demographic.

edit - anyway, I grow tired of this, maybe some other day.
You know a lot of 50+ folk already chased this fairy tale on Trump I (aka Richard Nixon) by voting for George McGovern. I even worked for his campaign. McGovern was at least a reasonable effective Senator (especially as compared to Bernie's record), was a WWII hero and based most of his campaign on getting us out of Vietnam now when the vast majority of the country agreed & it was the major issue of the day. He got creamed by Nixon.

If someone Bernie became the nominee I would predict a similar landslide (for Trump) with a low voter turnout.

We need a democratic controlled Senate and the White House. Even if Sanders did win, he has absolutely no coattails-heck he won't even call himself a Democratic, much less support them.
 

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