Texas Ebola patient dies

[Linux23]

Don't wait. Self quarantine asap for Christ sake man!!!!

 

[fskimospy]

The problem with these kind of statements is that they demonstrate a complete lack of understanding of the mathematics behind Ebola, as well as not understanding what a level 4 biohazard means. Drinking the cool-aid is probably an appropriate analogy.

Ebola is a level 4 biohazard - look it up and you'll find that means dealing with Ebola contamination requires among other things a 'positive pressure' suit. At least that's what it required a couple of years ago... Its worth mentioning here that about 5% of Ebola deaths are healthcare workers. Its also worth mentioning that HIV is only a level 2 biohazard, its not comparable.

On the math part - in W Africa Ebola is growing with a contagion factor of 1.5 to 2. That means for every infection, 1.5 to 2 more people get infected. That number has to fall below 1 for the disease to shrink.

At the current rate of growth, by March around 1.4 million will have been infected. At a 70% death rate that means Ebola could easily eclipse HIV as a killer in Africa within 5 months. And how many healthcare workers will be left at that point?

And if we are getting Ebola cases in the US now with only 10000 cases in Africa, how many will we get when there are millions?

Apparently Duncan's fiancee and the other people living in his apartment with him while he was exhibiting Ebola symptoms have just passed the 21 day incubation period marker and are therefore extremely likely to be in the clear.

That should serve as powerful evidence as to how difficult it is to transmit Ebola.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Where's the panic? Want more panic!

 

[bshole]

Where's the panic? Want more panic!

Well I have to admit that I was a little nervous there for awhile. I think Eski had this one called right from the beginning. Kudo's to HIM.

 

[squarecut1]

So the conversation will now shift back to ISIS and all that. Gotta have a Monster, which is as integral to America as beer is to Ireland.

 

[PokerGuy]

Apparently Duncan's fiancee and the other people living in his apartment with him while he was exhibiting Ebola symptoms have just passed the 21 day incubation period marker and are therefore extremely likely to be in the clear.

....until the next patient zero lands in some unsuspecting ER elsewhere, which is extremely likely to happen at some point considering the number of patients in africa is growing rapidly and will reach a million before long.

That should serve as powerful evidence as to how difficult it is to transmit Ebola.

Lets not forget that two people got infected with the disease. I wouldn't say it's exceedingly difficult, I'd say it's "not easy" to transmit.

Unfortunately, by not stopping the disease at the source, we've made it virtually assured that we're going to be dealing with patients or mini-outbreaks for a while, hopefully on a very limited scale.

 

[xBiffx]

When someone that is part of the medical field in this country gets infected, I'd say its rather nearsighted and ignorant to spout off about how difficult this is to transmit.

 

[RandallFlagg]

Apparently Duncan's fiancee and the other people living in his apartment with him while he was exhibiting Ebola symptoms have just passed the 21 day incubation period marker and are therefore extremely likely to be in the clear.

That should serve as powerful evidence as to how difficult it is to transmit Ebola.

When someone that is part of the medical field in this country gets infected, I'd say its rather nearsighted and ignorant to spout off about how difficult this is to transmit.

Exactly my thought. In Nigeria a single Ebola case infected nearly a dozen healthcare workers in that country. Its rather disingenuous to talk about how tough it is to get when contradictory evidence abounds.

 

[fskimospy]

Exactly my thought. In Nigeria a single Ebola case infected nearly a dozen healthcare workers in that country. Its rather disingenuous to talk about how tough it is to get when contradictory evidence abounds.

The more disingenuous statement would be attempting to generalize transmission rates from someone repeatedly exposed to people with acute symptoms as being representative of its ease of transmission in the general populace.

Considering what has transpired so far, what evidence would it take for you guys to admit that fears about the transmissibility of Ebola in the US have been overblown?

 

[PokerGuy]

Considering what has transpired so far, what evidence would it take for you guys to admit that fears about the transmissibility of Ebola in the US have been overblown?

Overblown? If anything, I think what we've seen so far shows us that it's really not that difficult to transmit from any patient having real symptoms to other people. If an "active" patient can infect caregivers, how hard would it be for an "actively contagious" patient to infect other people who are unaware of the danger?

 

[bshole]

The more disingenuous statement would be attempting to generalize transmission rates from someone repeatedly exposed to people with acute symptoms as being representative of its ease of transmission in the general populace.

Considering what has transpired so far, what evidence would it take for you guys to admit that fears about the transmissibility of Ebola in the US have been overblown?

None, you were right from the beginning. I already admitted as much. Quite impressive really. While everybody else was losing their lunch, you were the rock of reason. Actually you were perhaps the only one on this entire thread who had it right from the get-go. You definitely deserve props for that.

 

[fskimospy]

Overblown? If anything, I think what we've seen so far shows us that it's really not that difficult to transmit from any patient having real symptoms to other people. If an "active" patient can infect caregivers, how hard would it be for an "actively contagious" patient to infect other people who are unaware of the danger?

"Actively contagious" people are severely debilitated: bedridden, vomiting and shitting everywhere. They couldn't be walking around the general public infecting people even if they wanted to. They are highly contagious in that sense, but the only people around them are medical personnel.

People, including Duncan's fiancee, were living in close proximity to him for multiple days after he started exhibiting symptoms. None were infected. I would say that what we've seen so far, exactly zero members of the public infected, shows that it is quite hard to transmit. Considering that it is impossible for fewer than zero members of the public to be infected, what's the threshold for evidence?

 

[fskimospy]

None, you were right from the beginning. I already admitted as much. Quite impressive really. While everybody else was losing their lunch, you were the rock of reason. Actually you were perhaps the only one on this entire thread who had it right from the get-go. You definitely deserve props for that.

Whee!

Although to be clear, I think Ebola should be treated very seriously. We just have to do so with clear heads about what it does and does not do.

 

[soundforbjt]

....until the next patient zero lands in some unsuspecting ER elsewhere, which is extremely likely to happen at some point considering the number of patients in africa is growing rapidly and will reach a million before long.



Lets not forget that two people got infected with the disease. I wouldn't say it's exceedingly difficult, I'd say it's "not easy" to transmit.

Unfortunately, by not stopping the disease at the source, we've made it virtually assured that we're going to be dealing with patients or mini-outbreaks for a while, hopefully on a very limited scale.

A million? where are you getting that number? WHO reports 9216 cases so far.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/justinezwiebel/heres-how-many-people-have-died-from-ebola-so-far#27tz5xa

 

[xBiffx]

None, you were right from the beginning. I already admitted as much. Quite impressive really. While everybody else was losing their lunch, you were the rock of reason. Actually you were perhaps the only one on this entire thread who had it right from the get-go. You definitely deserve props for that.

So tell me, what does eskimo taste like?

 

[bshole]

So tell me, what does eskimo taste like?

Very cerebral.... much too brainy for my taste......

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

this seems apt...

 

[PokerGuy]

A million? where are you getting that number? WHO reports 9216 cases so far.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/justinezwiebel/heres-how-many-people-have-died-from-ebola-so-far#27tz5xa

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has previously estimated that the total number of cases could reach 1.4 million in four months in a worst-case scenario.

That's from the NYT's article here: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/world/africa/ebola-epidemic-who-west-africa.html?_r=0

Keep in mind that's the worst case scenario. The best case scenario is orders of magnitude better, and the reality will probably fall somewhere in between.

Again, I'm not one to be hysterical about anything, but I do think we need to be wary and very careful when it comes to this disease.

 

[PokerGuy]

I think Ebola should be treated very seriously. We just have to do so with clear heads about what it does and does not do.

Yes, we're in agreement there, but I don't view the example we've just seen of Duncan as a positive one. We had a single patient come down with the disease, and he managed to infect two health care workers, and we (meaning the country) had to spend a huge amount of money on tracing his contacts, identifying who might be at risk, monitoring them, quarantining them and so forth. Now imagine if it's not 1, but 5 patients in places around the country... or 10.... or 50.... It quickly becomes a major problem.

The good news is that we're far removed geographically, so we can better isolate and contain the patients when they present, but I still think it's a major concern that should be taken seriously.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Yes, we're in agreement there, but I don't view the example we've just seen of Duncan as a positive one. We had a single patient come down with the disease, and he managed to infect two health care workers, and we (meaning the country) had to spend a huge amount of money on tracing his contacts, identifying who might be at risk, monitoring them, quarantining them and so forth. Now imagine if it's not 1, but 5 patients in places around the country... or 10.... or 50.... It quickly becomes a major problem.

The good news is that we're far removed geographically, so we can better isolate and contain the patients when they present, but I still think it's a major concern that should be taken seriously.

I'd say the good news is the risk to the public at large seems to have been demonstrated as extremely low. While two health workers who had immediate and frequent contact with Duncan as part of his care contracted ebola, none of his family and friends have. It seems to confirm the professional opinion about how close the contact needs to be.

 

[squarecut1]

There would be a lot of glum faces at the TV networks throughout America today. I don't watch it myself, but I am sure their ratings (and hence ad revenue) would have been great lately.

 

[soundforbjt]

wrong thread

 

[DrPizza]

So, the people who shared Duncan's apartment with him for two days after he already felt sick enough to have gone to the hospital are just fine. Sounds like the CDC's "only a 99 fever? Sure, fly" wasn't unreasonable based on facts, rather than hysteria.

 

[abj13]

So, the people who shared Duncan's apartment with him for two days after he already felt sick enough to have gone to the hospital are just fine. Sounds like the CDC's "only a 99 fever? Sure, fly" wasn't unreasonable based on facts, rather than hysteria.

Personally, it annoys me that 99.5 is labeled a "fever." In most medical circles, 100.5 or 101 is the true value in consideration of a fever (and those values would be a considered a "low grade fever"). If that woman was only 99.5, that's not a fever, and frankly the CDC backpedaling on saying she shouldn't have traveled because of that temperature is a disservice. She shouldn't have been traveling given her exposure, IMHO.

This leads only to more people being misinformed. 99.5 is a normal temperature, and many of us may have that temperature during a routine day.

 

[DCal430]

The thing with ebola is as the disease progresses a person becomes more and more infectious. This is one reason healthcare workers are at high risk since they are treating them during this stage. Duncan's family was never exposed to him during the high infectious period.