Target to Promote Blu-Ray DVD Format Only In Store

[spacejamz]

Originally posted by: AnitaPeterson
When will you people "get it"?

This is not just about the U.S. market, it's an international battle. Target may be a medium-sized chain of U.S. stores, but it's still a local (national if you want) player, with VERY little leverage in the grand scheme of things.

If the French Carrefour, the German Saturn or the British Woolworth's - huge store chains in their own rights - would make a similar move towards HD-DVD, would you say the balance is tipped over? ...Would you even know it?

Take into consideration Europe and Asia before making asinine comments about which format will win.

Medium sized???? Target is the 2nd largest retailer in the US behind Walmart.

It is not just about Target announcing they will only feature Blu ray players instore this holiday season...

It is the public perception that announcements like this have on the average consumers who really don't care about this format war.

If they find out that blu ray has beat HD DVD every week in disk sales, that Blockbuster will only carry blu ray in 1400 of its stores, that Target will only sell blu ray standalones in its stores, that the blu ray logo appears on disney video ads, etc, etc, etc...this leaves an impression that blu ray is winning (which it is) in their minds.

the phrase "perception is everything" is a very true statement...right now blu ray is also winning the PR battle (along with the disk sales battle, the hardware battle, the studio support battle and the CE support battle)...

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: spacejamz

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
could apply the 1/5th and you'll easily get to your 2:1 sales difference.

THe PS3 surged a huge number of sales onto the market and they have maintained that pace somewhat. However, as sales are flagging they are facing increased pressure to spur PS3 sales, thus the drop in price.

With the 20% attachment rate, that means for June all HD-DVD had to do was sell 20k units to keep the same ratio of disc sales as the PS3. If BDA sold another 20k in stand-alones, then all HD-DVD would have to sell is 40k in stand-alones to match.

Are they selling more than that to beat? Who knows. However, then you need to start looking at what they need to do to *beat* PS3+SA, meaning anything over that 40k rate is going to tilt sales in their favor. Is this happening? Probably not judging by sales figures, however, they are maintaining their current numbers.

What happens if the PS3 doubles sales, as people have said it has? Then HD-DVD needs to increase sales by another 20k players. Is this possible? Certainly, especially at the lower price points and now with the $179 +5 discs free sale with the 360 add-on.

These are things people have said repeatedly, yet you (or others) refuse to take them as sound logic. Why? Because somebody hasn't broken it down like this on cnn.com?

I'm sure you'll just dismiss it, like you have before, because people don't like to hear facts and figures. What's funny is that not one person has provided me with any actual logic or data to refute mine. All they do is stick their fingers in their ears and say "NAH HUH", which is quite humorous because that's how they think debates work.

If you have something to refute my logic, then by all means, present it. I'd love somebody to do so, because that's how you learn.

In late May, Toshiba offered a temporary price drop of $100 (which has since become permanent) and they reportedly sold 70K+ standalones. The PS3 price drop did not happen until July so as you constantly remind us, their sales numbers were probably lacking. Yet in June, HD DVD still lost by close to an average of 60:40 in every week after the HD DVD price drop.

Logically, those 70K+ players should have translated into an increase in disk sales for HD DVD but they did not.

Why would they have directly translated into a huge jump?

Think about this the whole way through. PS3 sold ~90k players in the same timeframe, BD sold maybe another 30k stand-alones. That puts about 48k HD-DVD equiv. players on the market at the same time. HD-DVD then sold ~70k and maybe another 10k of 360s, putting their number at 80k.

Of the total deployed players, including a PS3 attached difference, the incremental amount hf HD-DVD players above the monthly incremental amount of BD players is a drop in the overall bucket. Sure, they had a sales advantage, but when compared to the overall total HD market, that sales advantage was a very small one. Do you think an advantage of 32k players, when comparing that to equiv to 800,000 players against BDA is going to translate into massive gains in disc sales? That's a 4% gain in deployed hardware, it'd only result in a 4% gain if suddenly every new HD-DVD owner bought a massive amount of discs, which isn't likely considering they just absorbed a large cost to purchase.

Now, if they keep up that advantage over time, then it becomes a big deal. That'd be about 384k for a year, which is a significant sales advantage. Can they do this? Who knows.

I just think people are so wrapped up in the minutia of the situation that they don't realize how small this "war" really is. These tiny little movements really don't make any difference at all. Target sales 4% of the total CE market. Blockbuster is losing money hand over fist. Big fricking deal?

There hasn't been one fundamental shift in the "war" yet, howerver people keept touting these tiny little pinpricks as massive movements. It's humorous that they can't even take 5min to realize that the statistics of the situation really don't play out.

 

[A5]

They're both getting destroyed by DVD sales at this point anyway - I'm guessing that this won't be over until after Christmas 2008.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: spacejamz

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
could apply the 1/5th and you'll easily get to your 2:1 sales difference.

THe PS3 surged a huge number of sales onto the market and they have maintained that pace somewhat. However, as sales are flagging they are facing increased pressure to spur PS3 sales, thus the drop in price.

With the 20% attachment rate, that means for June all HD-DVD had to do was sell 20k units to keep the same ratio of disc sales as the PS3. If BDA sold another 20k in stand-alones, then all HD-DVD would have to sell is 40k in stand-alones to match.

Are they selling more than that to beat? Who knows. However, then you need to start looking at what they need to do to *beat* PS3+SA, meaning anything over that 40k rate is going to tilt sales in their favor. Is this happening? Probably not judging by sales figures, however, they are maintaining their current numbers.

What happens if the PS3 doubles sales, as people have said it has? Then HD-DVD needs to increase sales by another 20k players. Is this possible? Certainly, especially at the lower price points and now with the $179 +5 discs free sale with the 360 add-on.

These are things people have said repeatedly, yet you (or others) refuse to take them as sound logic. Why? Because somebody hasn't broken it down like this on cnn.com?

I'm sure you'll just dismiss it, like you have before, because people don't like to hear facts and figures. What's funny is that not one person has provided me with any actual logic or data to refute mine. All they do is stick their fingers in their ears and say "NAH HUH", which is quite humorous because that's how they think debates work.

If you have something to refute my logic, then by all means, present it. I'd love somebody to do so, because that's how you learn.

In late May, Toshiba offered a temporary price drop of $100 (which has since become permanent) and they reportedly sold 70K+ standalones. The PS3 price drop did not happen until July so as you constantly remind us, their sales numbers were probably lacking. Yet in June, HD DVD still lost by close to an average of 60:40 in every week after the HD DVD price drop.

Logically, those 70K+ players should have translated into an increase in disk sales for HD DVD but they did not.

60:40 in what, disc sales? If that is true then the momentum of the low attachment rate for PS3 owners is finally catching up to them as the HD-DVD players penetrate the market. Blu-Ray was pushing high 70s to low 20s in disc sales earlier in the year. If HD-DVD has cut it to 60:40 it doesnt look good for Blu Ray as more cheap HD-DVD players enter the market and sell at a higher rate than PS3 + Blue Ray stand alones.

 

[Arkaign]

Doesn't look good for HD-DVD. If they actually cared about winning the war, they would co-op the price of the player, make the studio help with it, and sell the damn things at $99. That would be the only hail-mary I see that will give HD-DVD a chance. Too many studios are on Blu for any serious movie buff to ignore. Of course, the really serious movie fans are looking at the hybrid players, it's win-win.

 

[spacejamz]

Originally posted by: Genx87
60:40 in what, disc sales? If that is true then the momentum of the low attachment rate for PS3 owners is finally catching up to them as the HD-DVD players penetrate the market. Blu-Ray was pushing high 70s to low 20s in disc sales earlier in the year. If HD-DVD has cut it to 60:40 it doesnt look good for Blu Ray as more cheap HD-DVD players enter the market and sell at a higher rate than PS3 + Blue Ray stand alones.

60:40 Since Inception...this counts the 7 month lead that HD DVD had before the PS3 came out in Nov 2006 (when blu ray sales started picking up)...By Feb 18th, ratio was nearly even at 50:50 and now in July, Blu Ray has grown to 60%.

The numbers you are referring to are the probably the YTD numbers which have been in the 60% range all year...

Here are the numbers again updated through last week...the weekly numbers vs YTD vs Since Inception (which was April 2006 when HD DVD came out) should be self explanatory...

Day.......Week....YTD.......SI
01/07....63/36...63/36....41/58
01/14....68/31...65/34....43/56
01/21....67/32...66/33....45/54
01/28....68/31...67/33....46/53
02/04....69/31...67/32....48/51
02/11....69/30...67/32....49/50
02/18....65/35...67/32....50/49
02/25....68/31...67/32....51/48
03/04....65/34...67/32....58/47
03/11....68/31...67/32....52/47
03/18....81/18...69/30....54/45
03/25.....n/a.....70/29....55/44
04/01.....n/a.....69/30....56.43
04/08....62/37...69/30....56/43
04/15....61/39...69/31....57/43
04/22....52/48...68/32....57/43
04/29....71/29...68/32....58/42
05/06....60/40...68/32....57/43
05/13....62/38...68/32....57/43
05/20....58/42...67/33....57/43
05/27....69/31...67/33....58/42
06/03....61/39...67/33....59/41
06/03....66/34...67/33....59/41
06/10....66/34...67/33....59/41
06/17....64/36...67/33....59/41
06/24....70/30...67/33....59/41
07/01....65/35...67/33....60/40
07/08....66/34...67/33....60/40
07/15....61/39...67/33....60/40

 

[Wreckage]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller


Do you realize that they have a 33 *billion* dollar portfolio of cash and short-term investments? If they invested that at a 5.7% rate of return, that means in risk-free investments, the return on that alone covers *all* loss from the 360. MSFT has 3x the cash on hand than SNE has ever had and MSFT generates 2x the cash in free-cash flow than SNE annually.

SNE makes 63% more revenue than MSFT, but is 1/12th as profitable. MSFT could give away the 360 add-on and not even feel it.

The big thing here is that MSFTs other lines of business, and the return on the liquidity portfolio, could fund a pure loss on the 360 for a very long time. However, SNE can't afford to take these losses very long.

I don't care if they have a trillion dollars in the bank. No business likes to waste money on a failed venture. That's probably why MS canned the original Xbox so quickly. They had hoped by rushing the 360 to market they could gain some momentum. Instead the Wii is now kicking the crap out of them and the PS3 is starting to climb right over their backs.

I don't think Microsoft has ever made a profit from the Xbox. Hell even the 360 is getting beat like a dog by the old PS2. Gamers are just not big on MS busting in and trying to buy their loyalty.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: LegendKiller


Do you realize that they have a 33 *billion* dollar portfolio of cash and short-term investments? If they invested that at a 5.7% rate of return, that means in risk-free investments, the return on that alone covers *all* loss from the 360. MSFT has 3x the cash on hand than SNE has ever had and MSFT generates 2x the cash in free-cash flow than SNE annually.

SNE makes 63% more revenue than MSFT, but is 1/12th as profitable. MSFT could give away the 360 add-on and not even feel it.

The big thing here is that MSFTs other lines of business, and the return on the liquidity portfolio, could fund a pure loss on the 360 for a very long time. However, SNE can't afford to take these losses very long.

I don't care if they have a trillion dollars in the bank. No business likes to waste money on a failed venture. That's probably why MS canned the original Xbox so quickly. They had hoped by rushing the 360 to market they could gain some momentum. Instead the Wii is now kicking the crap out of them and the PS3 is starting to climb right over their backs.

I don't think Microsoft has ever made a profit from the Xbox. Hell even the 360 is getting beat like a dog by the old PS2. Gamers are just not big on MS busting in and trying to buy their loyalty.

A lot of companies lose money on one project to make money on another. There are very good strategic reasons for doing so, which is what Microsoft is doing. It happens all of the time in the business world.

When was PS3 "jumping over their back"? June NPD numbers show PS3 selling less than half of what 360 did. That number has reportedly doubled with the price cut, but we'll see in a few weeks when July NPD comes out. With the new Halo on the horizon it's likely you'll see a surge in 360 sales also.

As far as the comparison to the Wii, so what? PS2? So what? It's called the bargain bin and consumer stratification.

Seems like gamers are buying into the 360 better than the PS3, which is nothing but a massive anchor on SNE.

 

[Wreckage]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
A lot of companies lose money on one project to make money on another. There are very good strategic reasons for doing so, which is what Microsoft is doing. It happens all of the time in the business world.

Most (nearly all) companies drop these kinds of money dumps. MS will probably do the same (again).

When was PS3 "jumping over their back"? June NPD numbers show PS3 selling less than half of what 360 did. That number has reportedly doubled with the price cut, but we'll see in a few weeks when July NPD comes out. With the new Halo on the horizon it's likely you'll see a surge in 360 sales also.

Between the sales spike for the price cut and the huge loss due to 360 problems, I would bet the PS3 will finish ahead when it's all said and done.

As far as the comparison to the Wii, so what? PS2? So what? It's called the bargain bin and consumer stratification.

So what? Many people are buying a Wii or PS2 instead of a 360. If you worked for MS, they would fire you for this train of thought.

Seems like gamers are buying into the 360 better than the PS3, which is nothing but a massive anchor on SNE.

SNE still has the best selling console out there. They have held that title for years. MS has never made a profit in the console market. I guess if you think that's something to celebrate, I have a bridge to sell you.

 

[spacejamz]

looks like you can add BJ's wholesale club to the list of stores who will only carry blu ray inside their stores (they will still keep HD DVD on line)...

The dominoes are falling faster...

Text

BJ's Wholesale Club stores to carry Blu-ray exclusively
Will offer HD DVD on Web site

By Jennifer Netherby -- Video Business, 7/26/2007

JULY 26
East Coast chain BJ?s Wholesale Club will drop HD DVD from its shelves and carry the Blu-ray Disc format exclusively by the fourth quarter, according to sources at the retailer and several Hollywood studios.

Sources said the chain will carry Blu-ray exclusively at all its 170 stores, although it continues to carry both formats on its Web site.

A spokesperson for the chain didn?t immediately return calls for comment.

BJ?s' move follows Target and Blockbuster, both of which have announced they will increase the presence and support of Blu-ray in stores. Both chains, however, will continue to carry HD DVD movies to some extent.

 

[Narmer]

Sony is doing the same thing they did with the original PS2 and it's working. At the end of the day, that trojan horse of a PS3 will make itself useful. People aren't buying either formats in droves because DVD is just fine and convenient. However, what I see is that the retail industry is pushing for one format to become a standard at the cost of another. It's a slow nudge but everyone can see where it's going.

The fact is, for the regular guy, the battle between blu-ray and hd-dvd is the same one purists have between 1080i and 1080p, the difference isn't noticeable enough to be a factor. Compared to VHS, dvd was just perfect. As we're seeing the space on an hd-dvd is reaching capacity so that may push the studios towards blu-ray.

As others, I'll wait until the dust settles.

 

[sdifox]

I have my Panny RP-82S hooked up to my Optoma HS72 through component and feeding 480p to it. I have to say, it looks stunning. You almost can't tell it is not HD source.

Yes, I have a lot of HD material too, 1.5TB worth off the ATSC antenna... I love CBC HD hockey on 92"

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Originally posted by: spacejamz


BJ?s' move follows Target and Blockbuster, both of which have announced they will increase the presence and support of Blu-ray in stores. Both chains, however, will continue to carry HD DVD movies to some extent.

HD-DVD supporters can rationalize it any way they like, but those are BIG wins for Blu-Ray. Many U.S. consumers are impulse shoppers, and/or seek instant gratification. Having your product in store, without your competitor's along side it, that is going to help sales.

 

[LegendKiller]

It is a bit worrying that you have a lot of smaller players in the CE market turning over to Blu without any HD-DVD consortium response other than dropping price. It's a poor way to run an alternative format.

 

[Narmer]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
It is a bit worrying that you have a lot of smaller players in the CE market turning over to Blu without any HD-DVD consortium response other than dropping price. It's a poor way to run an alternative format.

Considering that a PS3 purchase moves movies, games and accessories, I'm not surprised that these retailers are moving in this direction. Furthermore, a PS3 is more expensive as well. Toshiba has nothing other than price going for it. Remember, than main advantage of HD-DVD has always been it's lower manufacturing cost. That's it.

To paraphrase Clint Eastwood (Josey Wales): Salesmen gotta eat. Retailers gotta eat.

 

[dwell]

With the Sam's announcement, the writing is on the wall. HD-DVD is a goner. It's that simple. Three major outlets have gone Blu-Ray exclusive (four if you count Woolworth's in the UK) and *no* HD-DVD exclusive chains anywhere. All it's going to take is Wal-Mart or Best Buy to pick sides and it's over. Universal has to be feeling the pressure by now, and it would be in their best interests if they jump ship and end the war before it does any further damage to the consumer.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Chris
With the Sam's announcement, the writing is on the wall. HD-DVD is a goner. It's that simple. Three major outlets have gone Blu-Ray exclusive (four if you count Woolworth's in the UK) and *no* HD-DVD exclusive chains anywhere. All it's going to take is Wal-Mart or Best Buy to pick sides and it's over. Universal has to be feeling the pressure by now, and it would be in their best interests if they jump ship and end the war before it does any further damage to the consumer.

Sam's? Where has Sam's Club anounced BD only? Do you mean BJ? BJ is still a pretty small player in the bulk business, not nearly as large as Costco or Sam's, try not to inflate things.

 

[dwell]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Sam's? Where has Sam's Club anounced BD only? Do you mean BJ? BJ is still a pretty small player in the bulk business, not nearly as large as Costco or Sam's, try not to inflate things.

I'll try not to inflate Blockbuster or Target either. Is *any* outlet HD-DVD exclusive? Wonder why not?

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: Narmer

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
It is a bit worrying that you have a lot of smaller players in the CE market turning over to Blu without any HD-DVD consortium response other than dropping price. It's a poor way to run an alternative format.

Considering that a PS3 purchase moves movies, games and accessories, I'm not surprised that these retailers are moving in this direction. Furthermore, a PS3 is more expensive as well. Toshiba has nothing other than price going for it. Remember, than main advantage of HD-DVD has always been it's lower manufacturing cost. That's it.

To paraphrase Clint Eastwood (Josey Wales): Salesmen gotta eat. Retailers gotta eat.

Costs are big to consumers. When they see a 500 dollar Blu Ray player next to a 200-300 dollar HD-DVD they will question the purchase. 3 months later when that HD_DVD player is 199 and the Blu Ray is 399 they may make a deicision.

This battle is very early. I really believe whichever format gets a player into the market at a sub 150 dollar price wins on volume alone.

 

[Narmer]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: Narmer

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
It is a bit worrying that you have a lot of smaller players in the CE market turning over to Blu without any HD-DVD consortium response other than dropping price. It's a poor way to run an alternative format.

Considering that a PS3 purchase moves movies, games and accessories, I'm not surprised that these retailers are moving in this direction. Furthermore, a PS3 is more expensive as well. Toshiba has nothing other than price going for it. Remember, than main advantage of HD-DVD has always been it's lower manufacturing cost. That's it.

To paraphrase Clint Eastwood (Josey Wales): Salesmen gotta eat. Retailers gotta eat.

Costs are big to consumers. When they see a 500 dollar Blu Ray player next to a 200-300 dollar HD-DVD they will question the purchase. 3 months later when that HD_DVD player is 199 and the Blu Ray is 399 they may make a deicision.

This battle is very early. I really believe whichever format gets a player into the market at a sub 150 dollar price wins on volume alone.

Yes, but you are comparing a stand-alone device to something that can also play games and acts as an entertainment hub. Besides. Nobody is going out there and comparing HD-DVD to Blu-ray at this time. If they were, then those people most likely already have both because they understand the technical features behind both. Truth be told, the HD-DVD is inferior to blu-ray in terms of capacity, and that is the main reason for these next generation discs. The people that shop at these stores think of games first when they look at a PS3. An HD-DVD system is simply for movies. The salesperson may convince them to get games and other accessories for that system, and that is why (I believe) that these retailers are slowly nudging Toshiba out of their stores. They simply want to make more money.

 

[Wreckage]

Originally posted by: Chris

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Sam's? Where has Sam's Club anounced BD only? Do you mean BJ? BJ is still a pretty small player in the bulk business, not nearly as large as Costco or Sam's, try not to inflate things.

I'll try not to inflate Blockbuster or Target either. Is *any* outlet HD-DVD exclusive? Wonder why not?

I think the clearance bin is "HD-DVD" exclusive. :laugh:

 

[Narmer]

http://news.com.com/2300-1041_...tml?tag=ne.gall.latest

 

[CorCentral]

It seems that Sony might have gotten a little carried away with its announcement yesterday claiming that Target stores would sell only Blu-ray.

Target NOT going "Blu-Ray" only!

Target will continue to carry the Xbox 360 HD DVD drive as well as HD DVD titles so we don't see much of a change in their plans to carry both formats. In fact, they continue to sell Toshiba HD DVD players on their website. Sony appears to have bought an end cap, just as HD DVD has in retail stores such as BestBuy and Circuit City.

 

[LegendKiller]

The c-net link above is wrong. As far as the dude at top, who never answered my question about Sams, which he mentioned erroneously here's something for him. Sam's has a large HD-DVD display with discs. They have a small PS3 display, no discs and no other BD players.


http://forums.highdefdigest.com/showthread.php?t=8466

 

[spacejamz]

Ouch....